Flood Forecasting and Warning on the River Rhine

The River Rhine has its source in the glaciers of the Swiss mountains and eventually flows to the flat-lands of The Netherlands. The course of the river can be split into six major morphological sections within different climatological regions. This heterogeneity (in the hydrological sense) is reflected in twenty-five flood-warning centres along the Rhine and its tributaries. There is one flood-warning centre in Switzerland, one in France, three in Germany and one in The Netherlands. This paper describes the organisation and responsibilities of the German flood-warning centres.
The Federal Institute of Hydrology provides the German centres at Mainz and Duisburg with forecast results. These results were obtained by a statistical multichannel filtering model between 1980 and 1997. Commencing in 1998, a new forecasting system has been in use, which is built up by hydrodynamic models for the most important river reaches, coupled with statistical approaches for some input gauges. The implementation and data usage of this new system is discussed and forecast results for the 1993, 1995 and the 1998 floods are presented. Finally, the paper provides an outlook on the linking with precipitation-runoff models.     

An Integrated Approach to Flood Forecasting and Warning in England and Wales

Flood-warning systems have been researched and discussed for several decades, and there is a large degree of consensus among researchers that an integrated approach to such systems is the most effective. There is evidence to show that flood-warning systems are rarely operated in an integrated way and, as a consequence, tend to function sub-optimally. The new powers vested in the Environment Agency in 1996, to oversee the total warning process in England and Wales, provide a unique opportunity to develop an integrated approach to flood detection, forecasting, warning dissemination and response, and therefore an improved service to other agencies and communities at risk from flooding.     

泛光照明与城市夜景

通过对泛光照明的原理、泛光照度的指标、灯具的特点、光源的性能等的研究,论述在城市夜景如何更好地应用泛光照明。     

市北天然气燃气负荷预测模型探讨

将灰色模型、时间序列等科学理论应用于负荷预测工作之中,结合市北地区天然气预测的实际情况,通过理论推导和方法整合,利用计算机编程进行精确计算,提高日负荷预测准确率.     

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Neural Networks

Real-time forecasting of stream flows during storms provides an essential input to operational flood management. This work is usually very complex owing to the uncertain and unpredictable nature of the underlying phenomena. The technique of neural networks therefore was applied to model it. Forecasting of flood values during storms with a lead time of one and more hours was made using a selected sequence of past flood values observed at a specific location. Training of the network was done with the help of three alternative methods, viz., error backpropagation, conjugate gradient, and cascade correlation. Resulting flood forecasts were found to be satisfactory—especially when warning time was the least.     

1788年洪水对荆州城市建设的影响

1788年洪水是荆州城市建设史上的重要事件,对于后来的荆州城市防洪和城市布局有着很大影响。城墙在荆州城市防洪中起到极为重要的作用,并因此得以长期保存;排洪的需要促成了城濠水系的疏通与重新组织;堤防建设与城市格局产生了互动;城市规划管理体系也以此为契机发生了一定的变化。所有这些直接影响到后来的荆州城市形态。     

灰色马尔柯夫预测模型

概要地介绍了灰色系统理论的研究对象，引入了ＧＭ（１，１）灰色预测模型，并将灰色预测与马尔柯夫预测方法相结合建立了一种对ＧＭ（１，１）模型进行了预测物新方法，克服两种预测法的不足，提高了预测精度。最后用一例子说明灰色马尔柯夫预测方法的应用。     

洪灾临时简易住宅设计与实现

本文介绍了一种洪灾临时住房的设计方案,及将此方案转化为一比一的实物模型的施工过程。此方案的特点是采用的原材料是简单、廉价、易得的乡土材料,建造过程迅速简便,完全采用干作业的施工方式。房屋基本满足隔热,保温,通风,采光等要求,耐久性在半年至一年,能以最少的人力物力为受灾居民提供一个相对舒适的临时住所。     

石家庄市滹沱河生态防洪规划的启示

在我国，防洪规划一般都是由水利部门编制，其主要目的在于确保排洪安全。以石家庄市滹沱河为例，探讨了多学科合作，编制科学合理的生态性的防洪规划，并分析了我国现阶段滨水地带性建设可持续发展的途径。     

Forecasting the sales of precast concrete building products

Two forecasting methods were applied to historical data of twelve groups of products of a major manufacturer. The results of the forecasting model were encouraging and more accurate than the manufacturer's existing forecasting system     

Forecasting the sales of precast concrete building products

Sales of precast concrete building products are influenced by the general demand for construction. This demand is subject to substantial fluctuations, caused by such diverse factors as capital spending by Government, the general strength of the economy, the demand for housing — which in turn reflects mortgage interest rates -and also by seasonal factors and weather. These are some of the difficulties associated with sales forecasting in the precast concrete industry. Sales forecasting is crucial managerial practice and its accuracy is vital for any company's business survival. A survey of the current forecasting and planning practices in the industry concluded that forecasting, especially for major product groups, is fairly basic and not reliable. Against this background, a forecasting model has been developed to analyse historical data and forecast demand for 12 months ahead. Two forecasting methods were applied to historical data of 12 groups of products of a major manufacturer. The results of the forecasting model were encouraging and more accurate than the manufacturer's existing forecasting system. The authors interviewed the firm's marketing and sales staff to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the forecasting system and identify the factors which affect sales and forecasting in general. Some tangible indication of the practical use of this work is the support given to this research project by staff of this company, at all levels. The work described in this paper is part of a more general computerized capacity planning system for the precast industry. This would be suitable for major companies, most of whom produce a large number of different products in a number of different manufacturing plants dispersed throughout the UK.     

黄茨滑坡预测预报分析

在介绍了黄茨滑坡地质概况的基础上,简要介绍了滑坡预测预报理论与方法,既而引入基于位移信息的Verhulst灰色模型和日本斋藤的蠕变模型两种方法对黄茨滑坡进行了预测预报系统分析。     

Flood Flow Forecasting Using Microcomputer Graphics and Radar Imagery

Components of a new generation flash flood forecasting system have been developed which utilize interactive computer graphics on a microcomputer, radar estimates of rainfall, and a time—area hydrologic response function. New generation radars in concert with ground-truthing rain gages, provide a high-resolution and timely capability for sensing rainfall amounts and distribution. Microcomputer graphics software and hardware aid the processes of rainfall and watershed spatial data management and interactive modeling of flood runoff on a local scale. Merging of radar-rainfall data sets with computerized maps of an application watershed is demonstrated and selected simulation experiments of flood runoff conducted. The microcomputer graphics system provides advanced capabilities for data entry, editing, and display on lowcost workstation, thus greatly aiding the hydrologic modeling and testing process. Hydrologic simulations were conducted to contrast the effects of radar sensing of rainfall as compared to standard areal averaging techniques. Storm movement and areal resolution simulations were also conducted and the results summarized. Radar estimates of rainfall were found to provide a more accurate representation of the spatial distribution of rainfall than basin averaging techniques.     

数据规格化在燃气负荷预测的应用

探讨了燃气负荷预测中规格化处理方法,建立了径向基神经网络燃气负荷预测模型。结合实例,对分别采用最大最小、零均值规格化处理的预测结果进行了比较,后者的精度较高。     

The Benefits of Flood Warnings: Real But Elusive, and Politically Significant

Flood-warning systems need to be seen as providing (a) forecasts of floods, (b) warnings to those at risk, and (c) in-between arrangements for disseminating warning messages to those who need the information as a basis for their response. This 'whole-system'approach reveals that warning dissemination and public response are weak links in the communication chain, and that the public remains dissatisfied with the service which should be seamless and reflect an integrated approach. Research on several aspects of this system reveals significant and continuing problems of low performance, leading to the question as to whether the present institutional arrangements in the UK for flood warning are satisfactory.     

对临安河桥镇防洪的思考

巨大的资金需要、对山地景观的破坏、用地的短期性给山地城镇防洪体系的建立带来了巨大的困难。应在符合城镇现有的经济实力的基础条件下,妥善处理防洪用地与其它各项功能用地之间的关系,防洪设施应统一规划、统一实施,使其与城镇景观自然融合。     

Advanced Methods of Evaluating Benefits from Improved Flood Immunity in Queensland

The regular occurrence and the high costs of flooding to both road agencies and communities is a strong impetus to investigate the methodologies applied to evaluating flood immunity road projects. Very little literature exists on methods of evaluating the benefits of improving flood immunity through better road infrastructure. This paper attempts to address some of the numerous issues hindering the accurate evaluation of flood immunity road projects. The methodologies presented in this paper are designed to evaluate benefits that are not normally included or not fully considered in evaluations; such benefits include reduced flood related road accidents, costs of not travelling during the closure period and additional costs from unanticipated flood events. A key focus of the paper is the consideration of the evaluation of improved flood immunity from a network perspective rather than the typical approach of evaluating flood immunity projects in isolation to each other. The application of the proposed methodologies is demonstrated with a hypothetical example of a typical rural network subjected to regular flooding. The results of the analysis, conducted using the proposed methodologies, reveals that the currently applied methodologies account for less than half the likely value of benefits of a package of projects that will prevent the complete isolation of communities during serious flood events.     

高速公路软土路基沉降预测方法分析

对软土路基沉降预测方法发展现状及存在的问题进行了分析,介绍了几种软土路基沉降预测方法以及每种方法的适用性,指出应根据工程的实际条件选择合适的方法。通过比较分析,提出了基于人工神经网络并结合遗传算法优化来预测软土路基沉降的方法。     

青岛西海岸地区CBD规模预测实证研究

在对国内外CBD及CBD规模预测方法研究进展回顾的基础上,以青岛市西海岸地区CBD为例,对学者提出的CBD规模预测方法进行实证研究,着重解决现有模型中关于规划期末第三产业就业比重和CBD就业占第三产业就业比重这两个主要参数在预测过程中存在的问题,从而提高了预测结果的准确性．     

国土空间安全语境下的洪涝适应经验及规划响应

随着国土空间规划体系改革与重构, 水环境安全、适灾空间规划、韧性城市建设等 内容成为保障国土空间安全的热点,对空间规 划与风险管理提出持续不断的调整与学习、有 效适应灾害等新的要求。文章基于应对洪涝灾 害的规划趋势,围绕洪水资源、洪泛土地与社 会行动方面,梳理了洪涝灾害的风险学习与资 源管理、洪泛区的情景模拟与用地管制、管理 体系优化与社区治理等国际规划经验。在此基 础上,面向国土空间总体规划的流域专项、省 级层面、市县层面,分别提出洪涝情景模拟与 淹没范围划定、生态单元规划与重大防洪设施 布局、国土承灾风险等级划分与功能管控、绿 色空间适灾配置、项目选址避灾引导、分阶段 社区应灾体系构建等洪涝适应性策略,形成国 土空间安全语境下的洪涝适应性规划框架。以 期强化各层级国土空间总体规划之间的纵向传 导与横向衔接,为开展适应洪涝灾害的规划实 践工作提供思路借鉴。