Birnbaum–Saunders nonlinear regression models

We introduce, for the first time, a new class of Birnbaum–Saunders nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. The class generalizes the regression model described by Rieck and Nedelman [Rieck, J.R., Nedelman, J.R., 1991. A log-linear model for the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. Technometrics 33, 51–60]. We discuss maximum-likelihood estimation for the parameters of the model, and derive closed-form expressions for the second-order biases of these estimates. Our formulae are easily computed as ordinary linear regressions and are then used to define bias corrected maximum-likelihood estimates. Some simulation results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates without increasing the mean squared errors. Two empirical applications are analysed and discussed.     

One-sided tests in generalized linear dose–response models

This paper discusses the asymptotic null distribution of three asymptotically equivalent one-sided tests in generalized linear models with separate lines. Simple forms for the correlation coefficients, which appear in the weights of the asymptotic null distribution, that is a mixture of chi-squared distributions, are given. A particular structure is proposed for the experiments in order to simplify the correlations and consequently to allow the use of several approximations developed for the weights. It is showed that the hypothesis of synergism or antagonism between two compounds may be assessed, under parallelism, by one-sided tests. Finally, as illustration, the efficiency of a standard preparation is compared with the efficiency of four test preparations under a gamma log-linear model.     

A hierarchical latent variable model for data visualization

Visualization has proven to be a powerful and widely-applicable tool for the analysis and interpretation of multivariate data. Most visualization algorithms aim to find a projection from the data space down to a two-dimensional visualization space. However, for complex data sets living in a high-dimensional space, it is unlikely that a single two-dimensional projection can reveal all of the interesting structure. We therefore introduce a hierarchical visualization algorithm which allows the complete data set to be visualized at the top level, with clusters and subclusters of data points visualized at deeper levels. The algorithm is based on a hierarchical mixture of latent variable models, whose parameters are estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We demonstrate the principle of the approach on a toy data set, and we then apply the algorithm to the visualization of a synthetic data set in 12 dimensions obtained from a simulation of multiphase flows in oil pipelines, and to data in 36 dimensions derived from satellite images     

Estimation of the Birnbaum–Saunders regression model with current status data

Estimation for the Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) regression model has been discussed by various authors when data are either complete or subject to Type-I or random censoring. But, this problem has not been considered for the case of interval censoring. In this article, we discuss the estimation of a regression model with current status data when the failure times follow the BS distribution. We estimate the parameters by the method of maximum likelihood, and derive the asymptotic distribution of these estimators. The performance of these estimators is then assessed through Monte Carlo simulations for different sample sizes under two types of monitoring. Finally, an analysis of real data is used to illustrate the proposed method.     

An exact Cochran–Armitage test for trend when dose–response shapes are a priori unknown

The Cochran–Armitage test is a widely used test for trend among binomial proportions of a dose–response relationship. This test requires preassigned fixed dose scores. Equally spaced scores were usually suggested if the dose-dependent shape of the binomial proportions is a priori unknown. Another approach is the construction of a maximin efficiency robust test. We recommend a combination of Cochran–Armitage tests based on different scores and the use of the maximum of the test statistics for a new test. Simulation results suggest that this combined test is superior to both the single test with equally spaced scores and the maximin efficiency robust test. The methods are applied to data of a toxicity and a tumorigenicity study with a stratified design.     

A hierarchical mixture model for clustering three-way data sets

Three-way data sets occur when various attributes are measured for a set of observational units in different situations. Examples are genotype by environment by attribute data obtained in a plant experiment, individual by time point by response data in a longitudinal study, and individual by brand by attribute data in a market research survey. Clustering observational units (genotypes/individuals) by means of a special type of the normal mixture model has been proposed. An implicit assumption of this approach is, however, that observational units are in the same cluster in all situations. An extension is presented that makes it possible to relax this assumption and that because of this may yield much simpler clustering solutions. The proposed extension—which includes the earlier model as a special case—is obtained by adapting the multilevel latent class model for categorical responses to the three-way situation, as well as to the situation in which responses include continuous variables. An efficient EM algorithm for parameter estimation by maximum likelihood is described and two empirical examples are provided.     

A generalized Waring regression model for count data

A regression model for count data based on the generalized Waring distribution is developed. This model allows the observed variability to be split into three components: randomness, internal differences between individuals and the presence of other external factors that have not been included as covariates in the model. An application in the field of sports illustrates its capacity for modelling data sets with great accuracy. Moreover, this yields more information than a model based on the negative binomial distribution.     

A latent variable regression model for capture-recapture data

Capture-recapture methods are used to estimate the prevalence of diseases in the field of epidemiology. The information used for estimation purposes are available from multiple lists, whereby giving rise to the problems of list dependence and heterogeneity. In this paper, modelling is focused on the heterogeneity part. We present a new binomial latent class model which takes into account both the observed and unobserved heterogeneity within capture-recapture data. We adopt the conditional likelihood approach and perform estimation via the EM algorithm. We also derive the mathematical expressions for the computation of the standard error of the unknown population size. An application to data on diabetes patients in a town in northern Italy is discussed.     

A Bayesian regression model for multivariate functional data

In this paper we present a model for the analysis of multivariate functional data with unequally spaced observation times that may differ among subjects. Our method is formulated as a Bayesian mixed-effects model in which the fixed part corresponds to the mean functions, and the random part corresponds to individual deviations from these mean functions. Covariates can be incorporated into both the fixed and the random effects. The random error term of the model is assumed to follow a multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. For each of the response variables, both the mean and the subject-specific deviations are estimated via low-rank cubic splines using radial basis functions. Inference is performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

A hybrid neural network model for noisy data regression

A hybrid neural network model, based on the fusion of fuzzy adaptive resonance theory (FA ART) and the general regression neural network (GRNN), is proposed in this paper. Both FA and the GRNN are incremental learning systems and are very fast in network training. The proposed hybrid model, denoted as GRNNFA, is able to retain these advantages and, at the same time, to reduce the computational requirements in calculating and storing information of the kernels. A clustering version of the GRNN is designed with data compression by FA for noise removal. An adaptive gradient-based kernel width optimization algorithm has also been devised. Convergence of the gradient descent algorithm can be accelerated by the geometric incremental growth of the updating factor. A series of experiments with four benchmark datasets have been conducted to assess and compare effectiveness of GRNNFA with other approaches. The GRNNFA model is also employed in a novel application task for predicting the evacuation time of patrons at typical karaoke centers in Hong Kong in the event of fire. The results positively demonstrate the applicability of GRNNFA in noisy data regression problems.     

A scheduling quasi–min-max model predictive control algorithm for nonlinear systems

In this paper, a model predictive control algorithm is designed for nonlinear systems. Combination of a linear model with a linear parameter varying model approximates the nonlinear behavior. The linear model is used to express the current nonlinear dynamics, and the linear parameter varying model is used to cover the future nonlinear behavior. In the algorithm, a “quasi-worst-case” value of an infinite horizon objective function is minimized. Closed-loop stability is guaranteed when the algorithm is implemented in a receding horizon fashion by including a Lyapunov constraint in the formulation. The proposed approach is applied to control a jacketed styrene polymerization reactor.     

A hyper-Poisson regression model for overdispersed and underdispersed count data

The Poisson regression model is the most common framework for modeling count data, but it is constrained by its equidispersion assumption. The hyper-Poisson regression model described in this paper generalizes it and allows for over- and under-dispersion, although, unlike other models with the same property, it introduces the regressors in the equation of the mean. Additionally, regressors may also be introduced in the equation of the dispersion parameter, in such a way that it is possible to fit data that present overdispersion and underdispersion in different levels of the observations. Two applications illustrate that the model can provide more accurate fits than those provided by alternative usual models.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for learning nonlinear statistical regularities in nonstationary natural signals

Capturing statistical regularities in complex, high-dimensional data is an important problem in machine learning and signal processing. Models such as principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA) make few assumptions about the structure in the data and have good scaling properties, but they are limited to representing linear statistical regularities and assume that the distribution of the data is stationary. For many natural, complex signals, the latent variables often exhibit residual dependencies as well as nonstationary statistics. Here we present a hierarchical Bayesian model that is able to capture higher-order nonlinear structure and represent nonstationary data distributions. The model is a generalization of ICA in which the basis function coefficients are no longer assumed to be independent; instead, the dependencies in their magnitudes are captured by a set of density components. Each density component describes a common pattern of deviation from the marginal density of the pattern ensemble; in different combinations, they can describe nonstationary distributions. Adapting the model to image or audio data yields a nonlinear, distributed code for higher-order statistical regularities that reflect more abstract, invariant properties of the signal.     

压力传感器的支持向量机非线性回归建模

压力传感器的输出特性易受到环境因素,尤其是温度变化的影响。针对该问题,提出了利用支持向量机(SVM)对压力传感器输出特性进行非线性补偿的校正模型。校正模型利用SVM的回归算法来逼近非线性函数的特点,通过建立压力传感器输出特性与其实际电压值之间非线性映射关系的校正模型来实现压力传感器的校正。实例表明:该方法能有效地减少温度变化对传感器输出的影响,且校正后的压力传感器具有更高的测量精度和温度稳定性。     

A two-stage algorithm for identification of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper investigates the two-stage stepwise identification for a class of nonlinear dynamic systems that can be described by linear-in-the-parameters models, and the model has to be built from a very large pool of basis functions or model terms. The main objective is to improve the compactness of the model that is obtained by the forward stepwise methods, while retaining the computational efficiency. The proposed algorithm first generates an initial model using a forward stepwise procedure. The significance of each selected term is then reviewed at the second stage and all insignificant ones are replaced, resulting in an optimised compact model with significantly improved performance. The main contribution of this paper is that these two stages are performed within a well-defined regression context, leading to significantly reduced computational complexity. The efficiency of the algorithm is confirmed by the computational complexity analysis, and its effectiveness is demonstrated by the simulation results.     

A screening-based gradient-enhanced Gaussian process regression model for multi-fidelity data fusion

The prediction accuracy of multi-fidelity models can be enhanced by incorporating gradient formation. However, the computational complexity would increase dramatically as the number of design variables increase. In this work, a gradient-enhanced multi-fidelity Gaussian process model using a portion of gradients (PGEMFGP) is proposed. To be specific, a Bayesian Gaussian process regression model for multi-fidelity (MF) data fusion is developed, which incorporates high-fidelity (HF) and low-fidelity (LF) responses, as well as the corresponding gradients. A screening technique based on distance correlation is applied to select a portion of gradients of the low-fidelity model so that the modeling complexity can be greatly reduced. The merit of the proposed method is tested with six numerical examples ranging from 10-D to 30-D, as well as an aerodynamic airfoil case with 18 design variables. The proposed method is compared to two other existing gradient-enhanced Gaussian process-based models. It is shown that the modeling efficiency of the proposed model is dramatically improved compared to the original gradient-enhanced multi-fidelity Gaussian process model, while the loss of the prediction accuracy can be almost negligible. In consequence, it can be a promising approach for gradient-enhanced models dealing with multi-fidelity data.     

A robust hierarchical production planning for a capacitated two-stage production system

In this paper, we propose a robust hierarchical production planning approach for a two-stage real world capacitated production system operating in an uncertain environment. The first stage of the system produces a set of semi-finished products having relatively stable annual demands, and the second finishing stage produces finished products having highly variable weekly demands. The fixed production setup costs incurred at the first stage are considerably high. Fixed production setup costs incurred at the second stage are fairly small compared to those of the first stage. We propose an integrated hierarchical planning model, where semi-finished products from the first stage (i.e. the aggregate level) are disaggregated into finished products to be produced in the second stage (i.e. the operational level). As a result of the relatively stable demands and the high setup costs experienced at the first stage, a cyclical aggregate planning model is proposed for production planning at the upper level of the hierarchical plan. Based on this aggregate plan, a modified periodic review policy is then proposed for production planning at the lower level. Finally, a coupling plan, linking the two planning levels, is proposed to ensure the feasibility of the disaggregation process at every period.     

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data.