Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.

Two empirical judgment phenomena appear to contradict each other. In the revision-of-opinion literature, subjective probability (SP) judgments have been analyzed as a function of objective probability (OP) and generally have been found to be conservative, that is, to represent underconfidence. In the calibration literature, analyses of OP (operationalized as relative frequency correct) as a function of SP have led to the opposite conclusion, that judgment is generally overconfident. Reanalysis of 3 studies shows that both results can be obtained from the same set of data, depending on the method of analysis. The simultaneous effects are then generated and factors influencing them are explored by means of a model that instantiates a very general theory of how SP estimates arise from true judgments perturbed by random error. Theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Modification of moral judgment through role playing.

Studied 42 male and 54 female undergraduates to examine the impact of actual role playing on the change of moral judgment maturity (as assessed by L. Kohlberg in 1969). Ss showed both immediate and delayed increases in moral judgment maturity when role playing a moral dilemma against an opponent who employed reasoning above the S's initially assessed stage. Change scores exceeded those of control groups who either performed extraneous tasks or who passively received role-playing arguments. More change was exhibited by Ss at the lower stages. The flexibility of S's responses during role playing was associated with immediate but not delayed change in moral judgment maturity. Ss did not show greater change in response to reasoning 1 stage higher than their own (vs 2 stages higher or 1 stage lower) as had been previously observed by E. Turiel (see record 1966-07567-001). No sex differences were observed in initial stages or in amount of change. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Ease of retrieval effects in social judgment: The role of unrequested cognitions.

The present research explores a new mechanism for ease of retrieval effects in social judgment. It is suggested that in the most common ease of retrieval paradigm, when it is difficult for people to generate or retrieve the specific type of cognition requested (e.g., positive thoughts about an issue or memories of assertive behavior), they are more likely to spontaneously generate or retrieve unrequested cognitions (e.g., negative thoughts about the issue or memories of unassertive behavior), and the presence of these unrequested cognitions can affect social judgment. In 4 experiments, participants were asked to generate a high (difficult) or low (easy) number of cognitions in a given direction. Across experiments, when participants were asked to generate a high number of cognitions, they also had more unrequested cognitions, and these unrequested cognitions played a mediating role in the ease of retrieval effect on judgment. In the 3rd and 4th experiments, this mechanism was found to be independent of previously identified mediators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of positive and negative emotions in life satisfaction judgment across nations.

This study examined how the frequency of positive and negative emotions is related to life satisfaction across nations. Participants were 8,557 people from 46 countries who reported on their life satisfaction and frequency of positive and negative emotions. Multilevel analyses showed that across nations, the experience of positive emotions was more strongly related to life satisfaction than the absence of negative emotions. Yet, the cultural dimensions of individualism and survival/self-expression moderated these relationships. Negative emotional experiences were more negatively related to life satisfaction in individualistic than in collectivistic nations, and positive emotional experiences had a larger positive relationship with life satisfaction in nations that stress self-expression than in nations that value survival. These findings show how emotional aspects of the good life vary with national culture and how this depends on the values that characterize one's society. Although to some degree, positive and negative emotions might be universally viewed as desirable and undesirable, respectively, there appear to be clear cultural differences in how relevant such emotional experiences are to quality of life. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 134(5) of Psychological Bulletin (see record 2008-11487-006). In this article, two columns of data were inadvertently transposed and thus listed under their incorrect column headers. The correct version is presented in the erratum.] The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task environments obtained from 86 articles. On average, fairly high levels of judgmental achievement were found, and people were seen to be capable of achieving similar levels of cognitive performance in noisy and predictable environments. Further, the effects of task characteristics that influence judgment (numbers and types of cues, inter-cue redundancy, function forms and cue weights in the ecology, laboratory versus field studies, and experience with the task) were identified and estimated. A detailed analysis of learning studies revealed that the most effective form of feedback was information about the task. The authors also analyzed empirically under what conditions the application of bootstrapping--or replacing judges by their linear models--is advantageous. Finally, the authors note shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitations in the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Stroop and Garner effects in comparative judgment of numerals: The role of attention.

In 7 experiments, participants selected the larger member of pairs of digits that differed in numerical magnitude as well as in physical size. Selective attention to the relevant dimension (number or size) was gauged by Garner and Stroop interference, both of which varied considerably as a function of the number and relative discriminability of values along the constituent dimensions. When the to-be-ignored dimension was more discriminable, sizable Garner and Stroop effects affected performance on the relevant dimension. When it was less discriminable, Garner and Stroop effects were considerably smaller regardless of whether the relevant dimension was numerical or physical size. The sensitivity of Stroop interference to manipulations of discriminability is accounted for by the allocation of attention to the constituent dimensions. The demonstrated malleability of the Stroop effect is incompatible with claims of strong automaticity in numerical processing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of the sound of tapping for nonvisual judgment of gap crossability.

The author investigated the possibility that nonvisual locomotion with a cane depends on the sound of the cane tapping. Blindfolded participants were asked to judge whether a gap in front of them could be crossed by walking. An acoustic analysis suggested that sound could, in theory, distinguish the gaps. Blindfolded sighted participants in Experiments 1 and 2 judged crossability under conditions in which only the sound of tapping was available and in which the sound was minimized; the third and fourth experiments included experienced cane users. Both inexperienced observers and experienced cane users were unaffected by sound reduction and were less able to discriminate gaps when using sound only than when using reduced sound. A fifth experiment indicated that active-passive differences were not responsible for these effects. Results indicate that sound is not necessary or sufficient for judging nonvisible crossability with a probe. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty.

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from limited task experience or from short-term memory limitations. As predicted by the naive sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), overconfidence with probability judgment is rapidly reduced by additional task experience, whereas overconfidence with intuitive confidence intervals is minimally affected even by extensive task experience. In contrast to the minor bias with probability judgment, the extreme overconfidence bias with intuitive confidence intervals is correlated with short-term memory capacity. The proposed interpretation is that increased task experience is not sufficient to cure the overconfidence with confidence intervals because it stems from short-term memory limitations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of method in treatment effectiveness research: Evidence from meta-analysis.

A synthesis of 319 meta-analyses of psychological, behavioral, and educational treatment research was conducted to assess the influence of study method on observed effect sizes relative to that of substantive features of the interventions. An index was used to estimate the proportion of effect size variance associated with various study features. Study methods accounted for nearly as much variability in study outcomes as characteristics of the interventions. Type of research design and operationalization of the dependent variable were the method features associated with the largest proportion of variance. The variance as a result of sampling error was about as large as that associated with the features of the interventions studied. These results underscore the difficulty of detecting treatment outcomes, the importance of cautiously interpreting findings from a single study, and the importance of meta-analysis in summarizing results across studies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The role of sexual arousal in sexually aggressive behavior: A meta-analysis.

Meta-analyses were performed on 9 studies of 434 Ss' penile responsivity to rape stimuli. The mean effect size for raw score data suggested that most sexual aggressors against women exhibit slightly more rape arousal than control or comparison Ss, whereas the mean effect size for rape index (rape arousal:consenting sexual arousal) data suggested a moderate between-groups difference. Rape index effect sizes in individual studies, however, were heterogeneous. The rape index appears sensitive to differences between sexually aggressive men and those who are not but is not sensitive to differences between men who sexually aggress against women vs other types of sexual aggressors. Also discussed are the needs for standardization and methodological and statistical improvements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Flexible correction processes in social judgment: The role of naive theories in corrections for perceived bias.

Unlike many models of bias correction, the flexible correction model posits that corrections occur when judges are motivated and able to adjust assessments of targets according to their naive theories of how the context affects judgments of the target(s). In the current research, people flexibly correct assessments of different targets within the same context according to the differing theories associated with the context-target pairs. In Study 1, shared theories of assimilation and contrast bias are identified. Corrections consistent with those theories are obtained in Studies 2 and 3. Study 4 shows that idiographic measures of theories of bias predict the direction and magnitude of corrections. Implications of this work for corrections of attributions and bias removal in general are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The administrative judgment test as related to descriptions of executive judgment behaviors.

"Relationships between the Administrative Judgment Test of the United States Civil Service Commission and ratings by superiors and peers of aspects of executive judgment were studied in a group of 127 federal administrators. A wide variety of rated characteristics correlated significantly with the test. When the ratings were adjusted to correct for the influence of the rater's general impression of effectiveness in making judgments, both superiors and peers described executives who scored highly on the test as competent in making decisions with policy making implications and in screening factual information for relevance and accuracy. Superiors, in addition, described high scoring executives as making decisions which are internally consistent, working successfully with implicit, concealed facets of the problem situation, and timing their decisions appropriately. Peers, on the other hand, viewed their more adequate co-workers, as appraised by the test, as those capable of implementing rather than making policy, and those who know when it is prudent to avoid decision." From Psyc Abstracts 36:04:4LI57F. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment.

"This paper has been concerned with the manner in which information is utilized in decision making or in judgment situations. It is shown that mathematical models provide a way of describing mental processes which would otherwise be accessible only through introspection or electro-physiological techniques. A linear model and a configurational model are described, and illustrations furnished for each. Such models make possible the testing of hypotheses concerning method of combination, individual differences in judgment ability, effects of training, personality correlates, idiographic interpretation of case materials, etc." (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The effect of motivation of judgment depends on the difficulty of the judgment.

Three studies tested the hypothesis that high levels of motivation facilitate accurate judgments when judgments are relatively easy but debilitate judgments when judgments are relatively difficult. Each study focused on a different judgmental heuristic, and each made use of different motivation and task difficulty manipulations. In all 3 studies, high levels of motivation increased judgmental accuracy in the case of easy judgments and decreased judgmental accuracy in the case of difficult judgments. Theoretical implications and ecological limitations of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

"Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies": Correction.

Reports an error in "Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies" by Natalia Karelaia and Robin M. Hogarth (Psychological Bulletin, 2008[May], Vol 134[3], 404-426). In this article, two columns of data were inadvertently transposed and thus listed under their incorrect column headers. The correct version is presented in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2008-04614-003.) The mathematical representation of E. Brunswik's (1952) lens model has been used extensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis of studies that covers roughly 5 decades. Specifically, the authors analyzed statistics of the "lens model equation" (L. R. Tucker, 1964) associated with 249 different task environments obtained from 86 articles. On average, fairly high levels of judgmental achievement were found, and people were seen to be capable of achieving similar levels of cognitive performance in noisy and predictable environments. Further, the effects of task characteristics that influence judgment (numbers and types of cues, inter-cue redundancy, function forms and cue weights in the ecology, laboratory versus field studies, and experience with the task) were identified and estimated. A detailed analysis of learning studies revealed that the most effective form of feedback was information about the task. The authors also analyzed empirically under what conditions the application of bootstrapping--or replacing judges by their linear models--is advantageous. Finally, the authors note shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitations in the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Team Role Test: Development and validation of a team role knowledge situational judgment test.

The main objectives in this research were to introduce the concept of team role knowledge and to investigate its potential usefulness for team member selection. In Study 1, the authors developed a situational judgment test, called the Team Role Test, to measure knowledge of 10 roles relevant to the team context. The criterion-related validity of this measure was examined in 2 additional studies. In a sample of academic project teams (N = 93), team role knowledge predicted team member role performance (r = .34). Role knowledge also provided incremental validity beyond mental ability and the Big Five personality factors in the prediction of role performance. The results of Study 2 revealed that the predictive validity of role knowledge generalizes to team members in a work setting (N = 82, r = .30). The implications of the results for selection in team environments are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Understanding the relationship between moral judgment development and individual characteristics: The role of educational contexts.

This study examines variation in moral judgment level as measured by the Defining Issues Test 2 (DIT-2; J. R. Rest & D. Narvaez, 1998), based on individual demographic information and educational contexts. Individual DIT-2 scores and demographic information were obtained from the archived data sets housed at the Center for the Study of Ethical Development. The information on educational contexts was obtained by surveying the researchers who initially gathered the data. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to analyze DIT-2 data from 7,642 individuals and 65 institutions. Findings indicate that average DIT-2 scores vary significantly among institutions. Further, the authors found that the strength of the relation of DIT-2 scores to gender and English language status is significant and consistent across contexts, whereas the strength of the relation to educational level and political identity varies across contexts. These findings indicate that information about the individuals' educational context as well as the broader regional contexts should be taken into account to understand variation in individual levels of moral judgment. The findings can also be used as an interpretive guide for DIT-2 users. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Recognizing: The judgment of previous occurrence.

Several suggestions for a class of theories of recognition memory have been proposed during the past decade. These models address predictions about judgments of prior occurrence of an event, not the identification of what it is. The history and current status of one of these models is discussed. The model postulates the detection of familiarity and the utilization of retrieval mechanisms as additive and separate processes. The phenomenal experience of familiarity is assigned to intraevent organizational integrative processes; retrieval depends on interevent elaborative processes. Other current theoretical options are described, and relevant supportive data from the literature are reviewed. New tests of the model involving both free recall and word pair paradigms are presented. The dual process model is extended to the word frequency effect and to the recognition difficulties of amnesic patients. (68 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)