A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza

Understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens is one of the most challenging problems facing disease ecologists today. To date, many mathematical and individual-based models have provided key insights into the factors that may regulate these dynamics. However, in many of these models, abstractions have been made to the simulated sequences that limit an effective interface with empirical data. This is especially the case for rapidly evolving viruses in which de novo mutations result in antigenically novel variants. With this focus, we present a simple two-tiered ‘phylodynamic’ model whose purpose is to simulate, along with case data, sequence data that will allow for a more quantitative interface with observed sequence data. The model differs from previous approaches in that it separates the simulation of the epidemiological dynamics (tier 1) from the molecular evolution of the virus''s dominant antigenic protein (tier 2). This separation of phenotypic dynamics from genetic dynamics results in a modular model that is computationally simpler and allows sequences to be simulated with specifications such as sequence length, nucleotide composition and molecular constraints. To illustrate its use, we apply the model to influenza A (H3N2) dynamics in humans, influenza B dynamics in humans and influenza A (H3N8) dynamics in equine hosts. In all three of these illustrative examples, we show that the model can simulate sequences that are quantitatively similar in pattern to those empirically observed. Future work should focus on statistical estimation of model parameters for these examples as well as the possibility of applying this model, or variants thereof, to other host–virus systems.     

Coalescent models for developmental biology and the spatio-temporal dynamics of growing tissues

Development is a process that needs to be tightly coordinated in both space and time. Cell tracking and lineage tracing have become important experimental techniques in developmental biology and allow us to map the fate of cells and their progeny. A generic feature of developing and homeostatic tissues that these analyses have revealed is that relatively few cells give rise to the bulk of the cells in a tissue; the lineages of most cells come to an end quickly. Computational and theoretical biologists/physicists have, in response, developed a range of modelling approaches, most notably agent-based modelling. These models seem to capture features observed in experiments, but can also become computationally expensive. Here, we develop complementary genealogical models of tissue development that trace the ancestry of cells in a tissue back to their most recent common ancestors. We show that with both bounded and unbounded growth simple, but universal scaling relationships allow us to connect coalescent theory with the fractal growth models extensively used in developmental biology. Using our genealogical perspective, it is possible to study bulk statistical properties of the processes that give rise to tissues of cells, without the need for large-scale simulations.     

The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape

Antigenically evolving pathogens such as influenza viruses are difficult to control owing to their ability to evade host immunity by producing immune escape variants. Experimental studies have repeatedly demonstrated that viral immune escape variants emerge more often from immunized hosts than from naive hosts. This empirical relationship between host immune status and within-host immune escape is not fully understood theoretically, nor has its impact on antigenic evolution at the population level been evaluated. Here, we show that this relationship can be understood as a trade-off between the probability that a new antigenic variant is produced and the level of viraemia it reaches within a host. Scaling up this intra-host level trade-off to a simple population level model, we obtain a distribution for variant persistence times that is consistent with influenza A/H3N2 antigenic variant data. At the within-host level, our results show that target cell limitation, or a functional equivalent, provides a parsimonious explanation for how host immune status drives the generation of immune escape mutants. At the population level, our analysis also offers an alternative explanation for the observed tempo of antigenic evolution, namely that the production rate of immune escape variants is driven by the accumulation of herd immunity. Overall, our results suggest that disease control strategies should be further assessed by considering the impact that increased immunity—through vaccination—has on the production of new antigenic variants.     

Dissecting the determinants of malaria chronicity: why within-host models struggle to reproduce infection dynamics

The duration of infection is fundamental to the epidemiological behaviour of any infectious disease, but remains one of the most poorly understood aspects of malaria. In endemic areas, the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum can cause both acute, severe infections and asymptomatic, chronic infections through its interaction with the host immune system. Frequent superinfection and massive parasite genetic diversity make it extremely difficult to accurately measure the distribution of infection lengths, complicating the estimation of basic epidemiological parameters and the prediction of the impact of interventions. Mathematical models have qualitatively reproduced parasite dynamics early during infection, but reproducing long-lived chronic infections remains much more challenging. Here, we construct a model of infection dynamics to examine the consequences of common biological assumptions for the generation of chronicity and the impact of co-infection. We find that although a combination of host and parasite heterogeneities are capable of generating chronic infections, they do so only under restricted parameter choices. Furthermore, under biologically plausible assumptions, co-infection of parasite genotypes can alter the course of infection of both the resident and co-infecting strain in complex non-intuitive ways. We outline the most important puzzles for within-host models of malaria arising from our analysis, and their implications for malaria epidemiology and control.     

Impact of scale on the effectiveness of disease control strategies for epidemics with cryptic infection in a dynamical landscape: an example for a crop disease.

We use a spatially explicit, stochastic model to analyse the effectiveness of different scales of local control strategies in containing the long-term, multi-seasonal spread of a crop disease through a dynamically changing population of susceptible crops in which there is cryptic infection. The model distinguishes between susceptible, infested and symptomatic fields. It is motivated by rhizomania disease on sugar beet in the UK as an exemplar of a spatially structured and partially asymptomatic epidemic. Our results show the importance of matching the scales of local control strategies to prevent intensification and regional spread of disease with the inherent temporal and spatial scales of an epidemic. A simple field-scale containment strategy, whereby the susceptible crop is no longer grown on fields showing symptoms, fails for this system with cryptic infection because the locally applied control lags behind the epidemic. A farm-scale strategy, whereby growers respond to the disease status of neighbouring farms by transferring their quota for sugar beet to farmers in regions of reduced risk, succeeds. We conclude that a soil-borne pathogen such as rhizomania could be managed by movement of susceptible crops in the landscape using a strategy that matches the temporal and spatial scales of the epidemic and which take account of risk aversion among growers. We show some parallels and differences in effectiveness between a 'culling' strategy involving crop removal around emerging foci and the local deployment of partially resistant varieties that reduce amplification and transmission of inoculum. Some relationships between the control of plant and livestock diseases are briefly discussed.     

Minimal within-host dengue models highlight the specific roles of the immune response in primary and secondary dengue infections

In recent years, the within-host viral dynamics of dengue infections have been increasingly characterized, and the relationship between aspects of these dynamics and the manifestation of severe disease has been increasingly probed. Despite this progress, there are few mathematical models of within-host dengue dynamics, and the ones that exist focus primarily on the general role of immune cells in the clearance of infected cells, while neglecting other components of the immune response in limiting viraemia. Here, by considering a suite of mathematical within-host dengue models of increasing complexity, we aim to isolate the critical components of the innate and the adaptive immune response that suffice in the reproduction of several well-characterized features of primary and secondary dengue infections. By building up from a simple target cell limited model, we show that only the innate immune response is needed to recover the characteristic features of a primary symptomatic dengue infection, while a higher rate of viral infectivity (indicative of antibody-dependent enhancement) and infected cell clearance by T cells are further needed to recover the characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. We show that these minimal models can reproduce the increased risk of disease associated with secondary heterologous infections that arises as a result of a cytokine storm, and, further, that they are consistent with virological indicators that predict the onset of severe disease, such as the magnitude of peak viraemia, time to peak viral load, and viral clearance rate. Finally, we show that the effectiveness of these virological indicators to predict the onset of severe disease depends on the contribution of T cells in fuelling the cytokine storm.     

Age-dependent stochastic models for understanding population fluctuations in continuously cultured cells

For symmetrically dividing cells, large variations in the cell cycle time are typical, even among clonal cells. The consequence of this variation is important in stem cell differentiation, tissue and organ size control, and cancer development, where cell division rates ultimately determine the cell population. We explore the connection between cell cycle time variation and population-level fluctuations using simple stochastic models. We find that standard population models with constant division and death rates fail to predict the level of population fluctuation. Instead, variations in the cell division time contribute to population fluctuations. An age-dependent birth and death model allows us to compute the mean squared fluctuation or the population dispersion as a function of time. This dispersion grows exponentially with time, but scales with the population. We also find a relationship between the dispersion and the cell cycle time distribution for synchronized cell populations. The model can easily be generalized to study populations involving cell differentiation and competitive growth situations.     

Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between serotypes are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infection with dengue provides substantial short-term cross-protection against other serotypes (approx. 1–3 years). This is the first quantitative evidence that short-term cross-protection exists since human experimental infection studies performed in the 1950s. These findings will impact strategies for designing dengue vaccine studies, future multi-strain modelling efforts, and our understanding of evolutionary pressures in multi-strain disease systems.     

Computation of alloy phase diagrams at low temperatures

Standard statistical-mechanics techniques for alloy-Ising models such as Monte Carlo simulations or the cluster variation method usually present numerical problems at low temperatures or for highly stoichiometric compounds. Under these conditions, their application to complex alloy Hamiltonians, with extended pair and multi-site interactions, is non trivial and can be very computer-time demanding. In this work, we investigate the application of a low-temperature expansion of the thermodynamic potentials for Hamiltonians with many pair and multi-site interactions. In this way, analytic expressions can be obtained for the free energies from which temperature-composition phase diagrams for any alloy can easily be computed regardless of the complexity of the Ising energy expression. It is demonstrated that with only a few terms in the expansion, the low-temperature expansion is accurate up to temperatures where Monte Carlo simulations or cluster variation calculations are practical. Consequently, these three methods can be used as complimentary techniques to compute a single phase diagram. Furthermore, we also show that the coefficients of the low-temperature expansion can be computed from the same information used to build the cluster variational free energy, thereby making the low-temperature expansion very simple to use. We illustrate the application of this new approach by computing the fcc Pd-rich phase diagram of the Pd-V alloy.     

Simplified mechanistic models of gene regulation for analysis and design

Simplified mechanistic models of gene regulation are fundamental to systems biology and essential for synthetic biology. However, conventional simplified models typically have outputs that are not directly measurable and are based on assumptions that do not often hold under experimental conditions. To resolve these issues, we propose a ‘model reduction’ methodology and simplified kinetic models of total mRNA and total protein concentration, which link measurements, models and biochemical mechanisms. The proposed approach is based on assumptions that hold generally and include typical cases in systems and synthetic biology where conventional models do not hold. We use novel assumptions regarding the ‘speed of reactions’, which are required for the methodology to be consistent with experimental data. We also apply the methodology to propose simplified models of gene regulation in the presence of multiple protein binding sites, providing both biological insights and an illustration of the generality of the methodology. Lastly, we show that modelling total protein concentration allows us to address key questions on gene regulation, such as efficiency, burden, competition and modularity.     

Validation of two models for discharge rate

A substantial body of discharge rate data has been developed over the past half century applicable for validation of single and two-phase discharge models. This paper applies a wide range of test cases and compares predictions with test data for two types of discharge model: (a) the energy balance model, and (b) the non-equilibrium model of Diener and Schmidt. The latter enhances the original homogeneous equilibrium model of Leung. This exercise reveals possible inconsistency between experimental datasets as much as it provides confirmation of the accuracy of the models, but both models are shown to provide adequate predictions within a factor of two and generally better.     

Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes

Despite many advances in the field of computational reliability analysis, the efficient estimation of the reliability of a system with multiple failure modes remains a persistent challenge. Various sampling and analytical methods are available, but they typically require accepting a tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency. In this work, a surrogate-based approach is presented that simultaneously addresses the issues of accuracy, efficiency, and unimportant failure modes. The method is based on the creation of Gaussian process surrogate models that are required to be locally accurate only in the regions of the component limit states that contribute to system failure. This approach to constructing surrogate models is demonstrated to be both an efficient and accurate method for system-level reliability analysis.     

Dynamics of alternative modes of RNA replication for positive-sense RNA viruses

We propose and study nonlinear mathematical models describing the intracellular time dynamics of viral RNA accumulation for positive-sense single-stranded RNA viruses. Our models consider different replication modes ranging between two extremes represented by the geometric replication (GR) and the linear stamping machine replication (SMR). We first analyse a model that quantitatively reproduced experimental data for the accumulation dynamics of both polarities of turnip mosaic potyvirus RNAs. We identify a non-degenerate transcritical bifurcation governing the extinction of both strands depending on three key parameters: the mode of replication (α), the replication rate (r) and the degradation rate (δ) of viral strands. Our results indicate that the bifurcation associated with α generically takes place when the replication mode is closer to the SMR, thus suggesting that GR may provide viral strands with an increased robustness against degradation. This transcritical bifurcation, which is responsible for the switching from an active to an absorbing regime, suggests a smooth (i.e. second-order), absorbing-state phase transition. Finally, we also analyse a simplified model that only incorporates asymmetry in replication tied to differential replication modes.     

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.     

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.     

Investigation of stress-strain models for confined high strength concrete

The effects of confinement reinforcement on the behaviour of high strength concrete columns are investigated for which prismatic experimental specimens were prepared. In the experiment specimens, four longitude reinforcement and confinement reinforcement were used. For each experiment, stress-strain relationship of concrete was obtained and compared with models proposed earlier. The results show that confinement reinforcement improved the ductility of high strength concrete. The ascending branch of stress-strain curves depended on the ratio of confinement reinforcement was similar to the modified Kent-Park model and the descending branch similar to the Nagashima model.     

Invasion,persistence and control in epidemic models for plant pathogens: the effect of host demography

Many epidemiological models for plant disease include host demography to describe changes in the availability of susceptible tissue for infection. We compare the effects of using two commonly used formulations for host growth, one linear and the other nonlinear, upon the outcomes for invasion, persistence and control of pathogens in a widely used, generic model for botanical epidemics. The criterion for invasion, reflected in the basic reproductive number, R₀, is unaffected by host demography: R₀ is simply a function of epidemiological parameters alone. When, however, host growth is intrinsically nonlinear, unexpected results arise for persistence and the control of disease. The endemic level of infection (I_∞) also depends upon R₀. We show, however, that the sensitivity of I_∞ to changes in R₀ > 1 depends upon which underlying epidemiological parameter is changed. Increasing R₀ by shortening the infectious period results in a monotonic increase in I_∞. If, however, an increase in R₀ is driven by increases in transmission rates or by decreases in the decay of free-living inoculum, I_∞ first increases (R₀ < 2), but then decreases (R₀ > 2). This counterintuitive result means that increasing the intensity of control can result in more endemic infection.