A new risk reduction indicator for dam safety management combining efficiency and equity principles

Large dams are critical infrastructures whose failure could produce high economic and social consequences. Risk analysis has been shown to be a suitable methodology to assess these risks and to inform dam safety management. In this sense, risk reduction indicators are a useful tool to manage risk results, yielding potential prioritisation sequences of investments in dams’ portfolios. Risk management is usually informed by two basic principles: efficiency and equity. These two principles many times conflict, requiring a trade-off between optimising the expenditures and providing a high level of protection to all individuals. In this paper, the risk reduction indicator Equity Weighted Adjusted Cost per Statistical Life Saved (EWACSLS) is presented. This indicator allows obtaining prioritisation sequences of investments while maintaining an equilibrium between equity and efficiency principles. In order to demonstrate its usefulness, it has been applied in a real-world case study, a portfolio of 27 dams where 93 structural and non-structural investments are prioritised. The EWACSLS indicator is analysed in detail and its results are compared with other existing risk reduction indicators, showing its flexibility and how it can be a very well balanced indicator for the purpose of prioritisation of risk reduction measures.     

The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety management

Risk analysis can provide very suitable and useful information to manage the safety of critical civil infrastructures. Indeed, results of quantitative risk models can be used to inform prioritisation of safety investments on infrastructures’ assets and portfolios. In order to inform this prioritisation, a series of risk reduction indicators can be used. This paper reviews existing indicators for dam safety, tracks how equity and efficiency principles are captured, propose additional indicators and provides insights into how tolerability guidelines and benefit–cost analysis can also play a role in decision-making. All reviewed, analysed and/or combined indicators are later applied in a case study, a portfolio of 27 dams where 93 structural and non-structural investments are prioritised. The case study shows that prioritisation sequences based on risk model results provide suitable and useful information, acknowledging that other concerns may be conditioning decision-making processes. With the results of the case study, a full comparison between all studied risk reduction indicators is made, and three indexes are calculated for all of them to measure how close they are to a theoretical best.     

小型水坝的地震安全(英文)

大多数用于灌溉和供水的坝为高度小于 15 m 的土坝,并称之为乡村坝。国际大坝委员会所辖大坝的坝高都在15 m 以上,这些小型水坝并不在委员会管辖范围之内。通常,乡村坝由地方社区或水坝工程建设经验不足的组织资助修建起来的,印度尤其如此。例如 1 月 26 日发生在印度古茶拉底省的 Bhuj 地震,波及到 240 座水坝。显然这些坝的质量远比不上水电站大坝的质量,然而小型水坝的事故将会影响到整个大坝行业的前景,所以这些乡村水坝也应该满足基本的设计与安全准则,以免对整个大坝行业造成负面影响。     

Modified risk assessment tool for embankment dams: case study of three dams in Turkey

Dam failures are catastrophic accidents resulting in property damage and loss of life. Risk prioritisation systems should be used in accordance with dam safety regulations to prevent these disasters. The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment software which can be used by the decision makers for ranking of dams. Risk assessment was conducted on three embankment dams from Turkey to obtain information about the dam performance based on piping, earthquake, normal stability and flood failure modes. Parameters are incorporated into the programme to develop a new model that could predict variables such as breach width, dam failure time, side slope and peak breach discharge. The proposed tool gives flexibility to choose dam elements for describing the primary features of the evaluated dam; so users can make hazard categorisation of dams according to their risk level which is based on unique project conditions.     

基于变形控制标准的高土石坝地震可靠度分析

基于可靠度分析的设计方法是科学定量地研究和保证岩土工程安全性的重要手段之一。通过定量考察土石坝工程中的不确定性因素,综合评估地震失效概率,可为高土石坝抗震设计和风险评估提供参考。以坝顶震陷率作为地震安全控制指标,提出了同时考虑地震和筑坝料参数不确定性的高土石坝地震可靠度分析方法。首先,采用地震烈度作为地震危险性的宏观衡量尺度,通过引入地震烈度概率模型,将基于概率烈度的地震动峰值作为地震强度因子,调整规范谱人工地震波的幅值进行动力有限元计算。然后,采用适用于处理小样本和非线性问题的高斯过程响应面法,建立筑坝料参数与坝顶震陷率之间的非线性映射关系,结合蒙特卡罗法计算高土石坝地震失效概率。最后,以紫坪铺面板堆石坝为例,应用该方法考察了设计基准期内的地震失效概率。     

考虑堆石料软化的坝坡随机地震动力稳定分析

地震尤其强震作用下,土石坝筑坝堆石料会逐渐呈现出软化特性,影响坝坡安全。为有效评估堆石料软化对坝坡稳定性的影响,结合地震动随机性,考虑不同地震强度水平,提出了基于等价极值分布和广义概率密度演化方法的坝坡安全概率分析方法,并基于坝坡稳定最小安全系数、安全系数超限累积时间、累积滑移量3个物理量,对242 m高的面板堆石坝进行随机动力响应分析和概率可靠度分析。结果表明:地震作用过程中,随着地震强度的增加,考虑软化与不考虑软化的计算结果差别逐渐增大,因为地震作用下,堆石料软化特性逐渐显现;同时,在地震激励下,堆石料软化是一个渐进过程。因此,考虑坝坡堆石料软化,对高土石坝抗震性能分析具有重要的意义。此外,单纯从最小安全系数角度考察土石坝坡稳定性,是不合理的,需要结合安全系数超限累积时间和累积滑移量,全面评估坝坡的安全性。提出的随机概率分析方法,可以对土石坝坡的可靠度给出较为准确的评价。     

汶川8.0级地震对典型高坝结构安全的影响分析

 汶川8.0级地震具有震级高、震源浅、破坏性强和次生地质灾害严重等特点。在对震区高坝灾情归类分析的基础上,选择典型的不同坝型高坝,包括宝珠寺重力坝、沙牌碾压混凝土拱坝、紫坪铺面板堆石坝等工程,从大坝距发震断裂距离、大坝基础处理及大坝结构类型的抗震性等因素对大坝结构安全的影响展开分析研究。结合在建的一批300 m级高坝,对抗震设防标准、水库诱发地震等问题进行讨论。结果表明：(1) 现行大坝抗震设计是可行的,300 m级高坝工程抗震能力仍需深化研究;(2) 大坝工程基础、抗力体经合理加固后,增强了岩体结构的整体性,可有效提高大坝及基础的抗震能力;(3) 高坝应急预案的设计与管理,流域性统一公共水电工程灾害应急平台建设有待加强;(4) 对水库诱发地震的研究需加强。     

高面板堆石坝抗震安全评价标准与极限抗震能力研究

针对强震区高面板堆石坝的特点,提出了基于稳定、变形、面板防渗体系安全的高面板坝抗震安全评价和极限抗震能力分析方法,并建议了坝坡抗震稳定、坝体局部动力稳定、坝体地震残余变形、面板防渗体系的抗震安全评价标准。对坝高超过250 m的某高面板堆石坝进行了极限抗震能力分析,根据坝坡稳定性、地震残余变形、单元抗震安全性、面板防渗体系抗震安全性等多角度的评价结果,初步认为,该高面板堆石坝的极限抗震能力为0.50g~0.55g。     

基于IDA的高面板堆石坝抗震性能评价

抗震性能分析能够有效估计结构在地震作用下的危险性,逐渐成为抗震安全性评价的重要方法,但由于结构的复杂性,该方法在面板堆石坝方面的应用还处于起步阶段。随着强震区大量高面板堆石坝的建设,这些高坝的安全性是必须要考虑的重大问题,因此对大坝进行抗震性能分析至关重要。增量动力分析(IDA)法作为一种抗震性能分析方法,能够全面、深入地分析在不同强度地震作用下结构性能的变化。将IDA法引入到高面板堆石坝安全评价领域,建立了高面板堆石坝地震破坏性能评价方法。根据场地条件选取了15条不同的强震动记录,以地震峰值加速度PGA为地震动参数,采用坝体地震震后变形、坝坡稳定性、面板防渗体安全为抗震性能评价指标,选取合适的性能参数,建议了高面板堆石坝各评价指标的破坏等级划分标准,通过大量非线性有限元计算,得到各性能参数的地震易损性曲线,分析了大坝在不同强度地震作用下发生破坏的概率,成果可为高面板堆石坝抗震性能设计和安全风险评估提供参考和依据。     

小型水坝安全管理现状(英文)

提出了关于小型水坝安全管理的一些见解,并尝试区分小坝与大坝之间的主要特征。小型水坝的安全管理包括一些政策、程序和现场监测,目的在于将水坝风险最小化。有关设计标准、材料参数和小坝降等原始资料的仔细检查,小坝巡视检查表,水坝监测指导性文件和对小型坝按安全进行分级都是本文阐述的主要内容。     

A simplified approach to assess seismic stability of tailings dams

In the zones of high seismic activity, tailings dam should be assessed for the stability against earthquake forces. In the present paper, a simplified method is proposed to compute the factor of safety of tailings dams. The strain-dependent dynamic properties are used to assess the stability of tailings dams under seismic conditions. The effect of foundation soil properties on the seismic stability of tailings dams is studied using the proposed method. For the given input parameters, the factor of safety for low-frequency input motions is nearly 26% lower than that for high-frequency input excitations. The impedance ratio and the depth of foundation have significant effect on the seismic factor of safety of tailings dams. The results from the proposed method are well compared with the existing pseudo-static method of analysis. Tailings dams are vulnerable to damage for low-frequency input motions.     

小流域淤地坝系的溃决洪水分析

中国黄土高原建成了数量众多的淤地坝,形成了大量的小流域坝系。当坝系的空间分布不合理时,一坝溃决往往引起下游坝连锁溃决。为了合理评价坝系的整体防洪能力,提出了一套模拟暴雨引起淤地坝坝系连锁溃决过程的方法。定义了坝系中坝的分级规则,提出了一种自动确定每座坝分级的方法。根据坝的分级从低到高的次序,依次对坝系中的每座坝进行产流分析、水库调蓄分析、溃坝判别和溃坝洪水分析,从而模拟坝系的连锁溃决过程。基于上述方法编制了计算程序,对陕西省绥德县的王茂沟小流域坝系的连锁溃决问题进行了模拟,并结合有关淤地坝水毁调查资料对模拟结果进行了分析。     

Seismic performance and numerical simulation of earth-fill dam with geosynthetic clay liner in shaking table test

In this paper, shaking table tests were carried out on both a small-scale and a full-scale earth-fill dams with geosynthetic clay liners to examine their seismic performance. The behavior of these fully instrumented earth-fill dams when subjected to seismic loading was also simulated by numerical analysis. Firstly, in the small-scale shaking table test, no failure was observed along the geosynthetic clay liner when the earth-fill dam was subjected to seismic motion. Numerical analysis confirmed that the behavior of the model earth-fill dam was unaffected by the geosynthetic clay liner. Secondly, a comparative shaking table test was carried out on full-scale earth-fill dams, one with a sloping core zone and another with a geosynthetic clay liner. Both model dams showed similar acceleration response and deformation behavior. It should be mentioned that the acceleration response increased gradually toward the top of the dam, and the deformation, after shaking, was relatively large near the foot of the slope. These observations were successfully simulated by the numerical analysis.     

尾矿坝稳定性分析的模糊随机可靠度模型及应用

针对传统可靠度及坝体安全系数计算方法存在的两个方面的不足:①实际工程中不可能给出设计变量精确的均值,而且这些均值在很大程度上受到许多客观因素或人为作用的影响,这些影响程度具有较大的模糊性;②传统的可靠度理论以Z=0作为度量坝体是否失效的界限,在零点两侧,结构的失效和安全状态是以突变形式转化的,但坝体从安全到破坏很难用明确界限划分,在可靠与失效之间有一个中间过渡状态存在,是一个模糊范围。在解决以上两个问题的基础之上,首次将模糊可靠度理论应用到尾矿坝的稳定性研究中,既考虑尾矿坝破坏事件的模糊性,又考虑主要变量和参数的模糊性,将模糊性和随机性相结合,研究尾矿坝工程的模糊随机可靠度分析方法。工程实例计算表明:计算结果与实际情况吻合良好,较传统坝体安全系数计算方法更加科学合理,更能反映尾矿坝的真实状况,为尾矿坝稳定性的计算提供了一条新途径。     

Performance of a Fill dam Based on the Performance-Based Design Concept and Study of a Seismic Retrofitting Method

Fill dams have long been designed by conventional specification based design methods which stipulate details concerning dam body materials, structural calculation methods, and construction methods. There are irrational aspects to applying the specification based design method to a case subjected to large earthquake such as the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, a type that rarely occurs. Thus, since the Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, the concept of performance-based design that treats performance of a structure as the only requirement has been incorporated, and conventional specification-based design is now being replaced by performance-based design based on required performance as the design method for structures. When an earthquake strikes a fill dam, water in the dam must not overflow the dam body causing a severe disaster in the area downstream from the dam. It is, therefore, necessary that settlement at a dam crest during an earthquake does not exceed a critical value, requiring that it be designed by an analysis method capable of accurately predicting the quantity of settlement produced. This report describes a design study of a fill dam, which requires a high level of seismic performance because of its location conditions and functions. Performed by applying the concept of ISO23469 to an existing fill dam, the study focused on ① setting performance criteria, ② evaluating safety of a fill dam during an earthquake, and ③ reinforcement method that satisfies the performance criteria and evaluation of its safety.     

Bridge retrofit prioritisation for ageing transportation networks subject to seismic hazards

The deteriorating state of highway bridges is traditionally ignored in estimating the seismic reliability of transportation networks. In this study, the present day seismic reliability of ageing bridges in highway networks is evaluated through a time-dependent seismic fragility analysis of typical bridge classes. An efficient algorithm based on finite-state Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations is also presented to assess the reliability of large ageing highway bridge networks without the need to simplify the network topology. The criticality of ageing bridges is then assessed through different proposed ranking strategies to arrive at an optimised seismic retrofit prioritisation. A case study on an existing bridge network with 515 bridges in the state of South Carolina, USA reveals striking differences between results of the proposed ranking strategies and those from state-of-the-practice methods. Such differences emphasise the significance of accounting for network-level importance in seismic retrofit programs of ageing transportation networks.     

Challenges of high dam construction to computational mechanics

The current situations and growing prospects of China’s hydro-power development and high dam construction are reviewed, giving emphasis to key issues for safety evaluation of large dams and hydro-power plants, especially those associated with application of state-of-the-art computational mechanics. These include but are not limited to: stress and stability analysis of dam foundations under external loads; earthquake behavior of dam-foundation-reservoir systems, mechanical properties of mass concrete for dams, high velocity flow and energy dissipation for high dams, scientific and technical problems of hydro-power plants and underground structures, and newly developed types of dam-Roll Compacted Concrete (RCC) dams and Concrete Face Rock-fill (CFR) dams. Some examples demonstrating successful utilizations of computational mechanics in high dam engineering are given, including seismic nonlinear analysis for arch dam foundations, nonlinear fracture analysis of arch dams under reservoir loads, and failure analysis of arch dam-foundations. To make more use of the computational mechanics in high dam engineering, it is pointed out that much research including different computational methods, numerical models and solution schemes, and verifications through experimental tests and filed measurements is necessary in the future. Selected from Computational Mechanics, Proceedings of the Sixth World Congress on Computational Mechanics in Conjunction with the Second Asian-Pacific Congress on Computational Mechanics, Tsinghua University Press & Springer, 2004, 154–166     

A proactive and resilient seismic risk mitigation strategy for existing school buildings

Different methods and procedures have been developed to define prioritisation strategies of retrofit interventions aimed at reducing the seismic risk of school buildings on a large territorial scale. However, these approaches fail to demonstrate how risk analysis has been used successfully to quantitatively assess and select the optimal risk management decision. This article proposes innovative and useful metrics to measure the potential costs and benefits related to the prioritisation of retrofit intervention and the resilience of the analysed school system by directly integrating engineering, organisational, socio-economic and political aspects in the realm of seismic resilience assessment. Based on probabilistic risk assessments considering the new vulnerability of the prioritised school buildings, these measures could predict the expected economic and functional losses associated with a disastrous seismic event, as well as the possible post-disaster recovery of the system. In order to help decision-makers in selecting the optimal mitigation strategy with a multidisciplinary and multidimensional perspective, different political scenarios, the relative prioritisations of interventions and their intervention options are also defined. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a complex case study of 1,825 public schools in the Lima metropolitan area, Peru. Policymakers, planners and engineering professionals could benefit from results.     

土坝渗透稳定可靠性分析方法及应用

采用确定性分析方法分析土坝渗透稳定的理论和方法已经较为完善,但它由于没有考虑坝体材料参数的变异性,因此得出的安全分析成果并不能完全可靠地表征其安全性。利用概率与统计的方法对土坝渗透稳定进行可靠性分析则可考虑坝体材料等一些不确定因素对土坝的渗透稳定影响。首先利用统计方法对坝体材料物理参数进行分析,得出了参数的概率分布类型,然后运用可靠性分析原理,构造土坝渗透破坏功能函数,分析土体有效重度、内摩擦角,坝体、坝基材料渗透系数对功能函数的影响,并采用几何法对坝体渗透破坏可靠指标进行计算,得出坝体发生渗透破坏的概率。利用上述方法对一土坝渗透稳定进行了分析。结果分析表明,坝体渗透破坏的概率随着土体有效重度和内摩擦角变异性的增加而增加,并且土体内摩擦角的变异性对坝体渗透破坏的影响较大,坝体渗透变异性对坝体渗透破坏的影响较大;另外,随着库水位的升高,坝体发生渗透破坏的概率也显著增加。     

拱坝振动台动力破坏试验研究

水电资源富集而高烈度地震频发的西南、西北地区的水电建设在西部大开发和全国能源合理配置中具有举足轻重的战略地位,而高拱坝抗震安全是西部水电开发建设的关键技术之一。针对拱坝在强地震动作用下的动力响应和损伤破坏过程,进行振动台模型试验研究。试验模型最大限度地模拟影响拱坝地震响应的各种主要因素,包括坝体—基础—库水间动力相互作用,坝体构造横缝,坝肩关键滑裂体,动态能量辐射等。模型坝体材料采用自然干燥粉状材料加压制成,满足模型强度相似要求。在逐级增加的输入地震作用下坝体共发生11处可确认开裂损伤,但未出现受压破坏。试验模拟呈现拱坝在地震作用下的响应及其损伤破坏过程,确定抗震薄弱部位,为全面定量评价拱坝的抗震性能提供重要依据。