Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

村镇污水处理 PPP 项目投资决策

由于村镇污水处理 PPP 项目具有污水不易集中、资金投入多、项目投资回报率低、投资回收期长等问题，使该类项目存在较高的投资风险。在部分风险由政府承担的条件下，依据投资风险要素，建立了村镇污水处理 PPP 项目的投资决策模型。应用蒙特卡罗方法对项目的净现值等指标进行模拟，依据对仿真结果的分析，预测出项目的风险大小并提出项目的最低保水量要求，从而对项目的可行性进行判断。通过案例数据验证了模型的可行性，并将模拟结果与其他投资决策分析方法进行比较表明了该模型的科学性，以期为民间资本对村镇污水处理 PPP 项目做出正确的投资决策提供依据     

TARGET LEVELS IN TRAFFIC SAFETY ANALYSIS

The concept of target based traffic safety investment is discussed. A procedure is developed to establish the optimum target level [reduction in accident frequency, rate, or risk] that can be achieved when the expected cost of the countermeasure(s) and the expected cost of accidents is considered. Expected level of safety without countermea-sure and effectiveness of countermeasure are both treated as random variables, and it is shown that the optimum target is dependent on the form of the probability distribution, its parameters, and the ratio of accident cost to countermeasure cost. Application of the procedure to routine safety analysis and management is demonstrated using simple numerical examples.     

基于地震变形易损性的高土石坝抗震安全分析

基于性能的地震易损性分析可有效估计地震作用下结构损害,是抗震安全评估的重要方法之一。以坝顶沉降最大值和坝顶横向水平位移最大值为性能参数,通过考虑坝址区域地震情况确定输入地震动数量,并提出采用性能参数突变点确定性能水平。首先,根据糯扎渡高土石坝坝址区域地震情况合理确定输入地震动数量,并采用改进PZC弹塑性模型和动力固结有限元程序SWANDYNE II进行高土石坝动力分析。以坝顶沉降最大值和坝顶横向水平位移最大值作为性能参数,通过对60条地震动的动力分析,确定性能水平。然后采用弹塑性模型-非线性方法进行动力分析,结合MSA方法得到各性能参数地震易损性曲线。通过分析性能参数平均值和标准差的变异系数与地震动数量的关系,确定地震动数量超过30条时,性能参数的平均值和标准差的变异系数基本不发生波动。最后,以地震易损性和地震危险性曲线确定糯扎渡高土石坝的抗震安全性,成果可为高土石坝抗震性能研究提供依据。     

Anwendung des Sicherheitskonzepts des konstruktiven Ingenieurbaus auf Investitionsentscheidungen

Application of the safety concept of the civil engineering to decisions on investment. In the field of civil engineering in case of scattered sizes on the actions side and resistance side, a safety concept is applied in order to restrict the probability of failure to determined values. In the sector of investment in real estate such a method is not yet common practice. This has in a multitude of cases led to the fact that investment in construction sites failed on the one hand due to the exceed of construction costs or on the other hand, due to exorbitant rents which are not likely to be achieved on the market. In this paper the safety concept of civil engineering is applied to decisions on investment. This is done by equating the construction costs to actions on structures and the value of the real estate to the resistance. The need for further research is stated.     

Les tolérances et les ouvrages

Tolerances merely prescribe the acceptable limits of deviations; only specific measurements reveal the actual deviations that occur. Chance determines these deviations, and the associated probability enables the risk of failure to be estimated. The probability theory is developed and is then related to five cases frequently encountered during construction assembly. For each the acceptable dimensions are formulated, the resulting deviations determined and their upper and lower limits established. The formulae derived, and abacuses drawn from them, enable the theory to be applied to practical situations.

This article by an engineer at the CSTB, France, summarises a study made as part of the work of CIB working commission W 49, and which will be presented at the forthcoming CIB Congress in Washington in September.     

“一带一路”沿线重大工程风险识别及评估研究

为了帮助中国企业在“一带一路”沿线重大工程投资过程中更好地掌控风险,构建风险评价体系。利用文献分析法初步识别“一带一路”沿线重大工程风险,借助因子分析法确定风险因素权重,从经济水平、社会文化、中国因素、国际政治、外交关系5个维度构建“一带一路”重大工程风险评估指标体系。并对“一带一路”沿线国家重大工程风险评估进行算例演示,绘制相关风险等级地图,形象直观地反映“一带一路”沿线各国关于重大工程建设的风险等级,为我国“一带一路”重大工程投资决策提供参考。     

基于IFAHP 的房地产企业投资风险评价

房地产企业投资是一个高风险行业,为避免投资失误,提高决策水平,进行房地产企业投资风险评价具有一定的理论和实践意义。针对房地产企业投资风险的复杂性和不确定性,在借鉴近期国内有关房地产企业投资风险相关研究和分析基础上,利用问卷调查法对投资风险因素进行了识别,构建了风险评价指标体系,并采用改进模糊层次分析法对风险指标体系进行了评价分析,从理论上找出影响房地产企业投资的关键风险因素,为房地产企业投资风险评价提供了较为合理的参考依据,使投资决策更为科学。     

Les tolérances et les ouvrages

Tolerances merely prescribe the acceptable limits of deviations; only specific measurements reveal the actual deviations that occur. Chance determines these deviations, and the associated probability enables the risk of failure to be estimated. The probability theory is developed and is then related to five cases frequently encountered during construction assembly. For each the acceptable dimensions are formulated, the resulting deviations determined and their upper and lower limits established. The formulae derived, and abacuses drawn from them, enable the theory to be applied to practical situations.

This article by an engineer at the CSTB, France, summarises a study made as part of the work of CIB working commission W 49, and which will be presented at the forthcoming CIB Congress in Washington in September.     

基于WSR-FPP和云模型的地铁车站火灾安全评价

为科学合理确定地铁车站火灾安全等级,考虑指标主观性强、模糊性、非线性等特点,提出基于WSR-FPP和云模型的地铁车站火灾安全评价方法.利用WSR从"物理"、"事理"、"人理"三个维度得到6个一级指标;利用三角模糊数和模糊线性优先规划理论同时引入容差参数求得指标权重;借助云模型通过标准云、指标云、综合云三种云模型克服指标...     

Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

某苯储运工程项目环境风险评价案例分析

某苯储运工程项目需进行环境风险评价,着重对苯储运工程进行环境风险识别、最大可信事故分析、事故后果计算及风险可接受水平分析.结果表明:苯是重大危险源,苯泄漏是最大可信事故.该项目最大可信事故的风险值为3.00×10-5/a,低于化工行业风险统计值,因此该项目事故风险水平在可接受范围之内.     

The J-Value and Its Role in Evaluating Investments in Fire Safety Schemes

Fire safety engineers endeavour to ensure that a design achieves an adequate level of fire safety. For uncommon buildings, adequate safety cannot be based on precedent and an explicit evaluation of the adequacy of proposed safety features may be required. Commonly, this requires demonstration that the residual risk associated with the design is as low as is reasonably practicable. In those situations, a measure for a safety scheme’s benefit relative to its cost is required, as more efficient safety schemes should be preferred over less efficient ones to maximize the number of lives saved under societal resource constraints. To this end, the J-value has been introduced in other engineering fields as a decision support indicator for assessing the efficacy of safety features. The J-value has been derived from societal welfare considerations (the Life Quality Index) and is adopted in the current paper for applications in fire safety engineering. It is demonstrated herein how the J-value can inform decisions on fire safety, and how it can provide a basis for assessing whether or not a proposed fire safety scheme should be implemented. Future work will focus on its implementation as a tool for assessing the benefit of real life fire safety scheme implementations, such as sprinkler installations.     

露天矿边坡优化设计方法

露天矿边坡优化设计是矿山企业谋求受益最大化的关键一环。本文基于工程优化原理和系统工程概念,论述边坡工程的系统优化方法。它强调边坡工程与采矿工艺的结合,在总体上,采用系统分析方法和系统仿真技术,在具体步骤上,采用数值计算优化方法,最后推荐出受益大、工艺合理、安全可靠、经济风险小的边坡设计方案。     

A review of global research on private investment in the water sector

This study critically examines the evidence on private-sector water investment over the past 24 years. It provides a basis on which future research can consider how global water investment issues can be better addressed. Moreover, this study exhibits scenarios of water investment performance that can potentially help investors make better investment decisions. Overall, we find that the water sector is expanding, and the market appears to be resistant to economic forces, suggesting that private investors can obtain positive returns.     

Modeling and analysis of uncertainties for risk-informed decisions in infrastructures engineering

Engineers deal with uncertainties in all their activities, and must often make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Infrastructures engineering is no exception—design codes are developed to ensure a desired level of safety and performance, or to ensure a specified operational life with a prescribed level of reliability; the required decisions must often be formulated without complete information and thus contain uncertainties. In considering uncertainties, it is important to recognize two broad types; namely, the aleatory type which is associated with natural randomness and the epistemic type which is associated with imperfect knowledge. Proposed here is a framework for the proper modeling and treatment of each type of uncertainty in the formulation of risk-informed engineering decisions. The concepts are illustrated with applications to bridges and offshore marine structures.     

边坡工程经济风险分析

探讨了边坡滑动面搜索的各种优化方法 ,并以边坡工程的可靠性分析为基础 ,从静态分析和动态分析两方面来对边坡工程及各治理方案进行经济风险分析 ,基于投资最省的原则确定边坡适宜的可靠性指标和最佳治理方案 ,从而克服了边坡工程可靠性分析和设计时无规范可依的状况。矿山边坡动态经济风险分析的评价指标宜采用净现值指标 ,而一般边坡分析宜采用费用现值指标进行评价     

浅议全方位工程造价管理的重要性

论述了投资估算决策阶段、项目设计阶段、工程施工阶段以及竣工阶段等全方位造价管理的重要性 ,指出应及时纠正建设工程项目进展过程中可能发生的偏差 ,以取得社会效益与投资效益的最优化     

Decisions on risk

This paper describes some of the methods used to resolve decisions affecting plant safety in design. Traditional approaches such as codes and standards leave gaps. An alternative approach is to define safety goals for an overall design in terms of the effects of potential incidents and their estimated probability.

An example is taken from recent design work. A retrospective analysis was carried out of the potential effects and probability of a fire involving the separation train designed for a floating oil-processing unit. It showed that previous design decisions had been satisfactory but that minor engineering changes would greatly reduce the risk. The design decisions during the project involved significant discussion and could have been accelerated using the techniques which are discussed.     

A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems

In many areas of the world, dams and levees are built to reduce the likelihood of flooding. However, if they fail, the result can be catastrophic flooding beyond what would happen if they did not exist. Therefore, understanding the risk reduced by the dam or levee, as well as any risk imposed by these flood defences is of high importance when determining the appropriate risk reduction investment strategy. This paper describes an approach for quantifying and analysing risk for complex dam–levee systems, and its application to a real case study. The basis behind such approach rely on the potential of event tree modelling to analyse risk from multiple combinations of ‘load-system response-consequence’ events, tested by the authors for a real case study. The combined approach shows how the contribution to system risk of each sub-system can be assessed. It also describes how decisions on risk mitigation measures, at the individual asset scale, can and should be informed in terms of how they impact the overall system risk.