China's spent nuclear fuel management: Current practices and future strategies

Although China's nuclear power industry is relatively young and the management of its spent nuclear fuel is not yet a concern, China's commitment to nuclear energy and its rapid pace of development require detailed analyses of its future spent fuel management policies. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of China's fuel cycle program and its reprocessing policy, and to suggest strategies for managing its future fuel cycle program. The study is broken into four sections. The first reviews China's current nuclear fuel cycle program and facilities. The second discusses China's current spent fuel management methods and the storage capability of China's 13 operational nuclear power plants. The third estimates China's total accumulated spent fuel, its required spent fuel storage from present day until 2035, when China expects its first commercialized fast neutron reactors to be operational, and its likely demand for uranium resources. The fourth examines several spent fuel management scenarios for the present period up until 2035; the financial cost and proliferation risk of each scenario is evaluated. The study concludes that China can and should maintain a reprocessing operation to meet its R&D activities before its fast reactor program is further developed.     

上海发展核燃料循环后端产业的路径

为更好地推动中国核电事业的发展，消除民众对核废料的担忧，完善上海核电产业链，介绍了核废料的产生和处理方法，分析了国内外核燃料循环后端产业的特点、市场空间和发展态势，以及上海市发展核燃料循环后端产业的优势和不足，提出了上海市发展核燃料循环后端产业的重要途径、重点产品以及相关政策建议，对引导上海相关企业进行合理规划和科研开发有一定的借鉴意义。     

Performance modeling and analysis of spent nuclear fuel recycling

The rapid expansion of nuclear energy in China has intensified concerns regarding spent fuel management. However, the consequences of failure or delay in developing approaches to managing spent fuel in China have not yet been explicitly analyzed. Thus, a dynamic analysis of transitions in nuclear fuel cycles in China to 2050 was conducted. This multi‐disciplinary study compares the environmental, security, and economic consequences of choices among ongoing technology development options for spent fuel management. Four transition scenarios were identified: the direct disposal of PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) spent fuel, the recycling of PWR spent fuel through PWR‐MOX (Mixed Oxides), the PWR‐MOX followed by fast reactors, and the recycling of PWR spent fuel using fast reactors. Direct disposal would have the lowest cost of electricity generation under the current market conditions, while the reprocessing and recycling of PWR spent fuel would benefit the Chinese nuclear power program by reducing the generation of high level waste (67–82%), saving natural U resources (9–17%), and reducing Pu management risk (24–58%). Moreover, a fast reactor system would provide better performance than one‐time recycling through PWR‐MOX. The latter also poses high risks in managing the build‐up of separated Pu. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Low enriched uranium and thorium fuel utilization under once‐through and offline reprocessing scenarios in small modular molten salt reactor

Using low enrichment uranium as driver fuel under once‐through mode in molten salt reactor (MSR) attracts more and more attention because of its fuel availability, no new technology, and nuclear nonproliferation. It is regarded as a wise research and development road to shorten deployment time of MSRs and to prepare techniques and experiences for thorium‐uranium breeding of MSRs in the future. However, this fuel management is still faced with some different technical routes, such as the selection of carrier salts, the enrichment of uranium, with or without thorium, and the recycle necessary of spent nuclear fuel. Therefore, various fuel cycle schemes were compared and analyzed using an in‐house developed fuel management code MOBAT. Different graphite assemblies were optimized by changing the salt volume fraction in core and dimension to find a region for best fuel utilization and negative temperature reactivity coefficient. Prismatic block with 10% volume fraction of molten salt is considered as a good assembly type because of its significant space shielding effect of U‐238. For carrier salts, LiF‐BeF₂ with 99.995% enriched Li‐7 displays higher fuel utilization and lower cost of fuel cycle than NaF‐BeF₂, while the tritium production at the beginning of life will be two orders of magnitude higher. For fuel enrichment, 20% enriched uranium is recommended because the background of neutron absorption from carrier salt and graphite will be more significant in lower enrichment condition. Importantly, it shows that thorium is a good breed and burned fuel in situ and could improve the fuel utilization by 20%. Also, offline reprocessing to recover the uranium is a commendable scheme when the cost of offline reprocessing is lower than 400 $/kgHN.     

Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits

Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.     

Preference and lifestyle heterogeneity among potential plug-in electric vehicle buyers

We characterize heterogeneity in preferences and motivations regarding plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)—including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). Using survey data collected from 1754 new vehicle buying households in Canada in 2013, we segment respondents using two approaches that prove to be complementary. Preference-based segments were constructed using latent-class analysis of discrete choice experiment data. Potential PEV buyers were split into a “PEV-enthusiast” segment (8% of the sample) with extremely high valuation of PEVs and a broader “PHEV-oriented” segment (25%) that expressed moderately positive valuation of PHEVs. Preference-based segments also varied by respondents' valuation of specific attributes such as fuel savings. Our second approach constructed lifestyle-based segments using cluster analysis on a subset of potential early PEV buyers (33% of the total sample). The six lifestyle-based clusters varied in engagement in environment- and technology-oriented lifestyles, environmental concern and openness to change. Overall preferences were fairly similar across the clusters, though apparent motivations varied substantially by cluster as indicated by their differing engagement in lifestyles and environmental concern. Taken together, both approaches suggest that PHEVs are the most likely PEV to have broad market appeal and that car buyers have high degrees of heterogeneity in both preferences and motivations.     

China needing a cautious approach to nuclear power strategy

China is leading the recent revival of nuclear energy programs. The Chinese government plans to increase nuclear generating capacity to 40 GWe by 2020, while the installed capacity is 8.6 GWe in 2007. In view of the enthusiasm shown for nuclear electricity throughout the country, the actual scale of Chinese nuclear power development is expected to reach 70 GWe by 2020. However, the low cost proven uranium reverses (cost category to <130 US $/kg) in China only meet half demand of 40 GWe capacity in 2020. And overlying China's increased demand is continued political sensitivity about the uranium trade. Meanwhile, the capacity of China's spent fuel reprocessing cannot keep up with the increasing spent fuel. And the legal administrative system of radioactive waste and spent fuel management is outdated. Hence it is proposed in this paper that the accelerated development of nuclear power industry is not good, and the over-accelerated development may be harmful, without appropriately considering the uranium resources and spent fuel management.     

Preference heterogeneity for renewable energy technology

This study explores heterogeneity in individual willingness to pay (WTP) for a public good using several different variants of the multinomial logit (MNL) model for stated choice data. These include a simple MNL model with interaction terms between respondent characteristics and attribute levels, a latent class model, a random parameter (mixed) logit model, and a hybrid random parameter-latent class model. The public good valued was an increase in renewable electricity generation. The models consistently show that preferences over renewable technologies are heterogeneous among respondents, but that the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. Specifically, preferences over solar power appear to be more heterogeneous across respondents than preferences for other renewable technologies. Comparing across models, the random parameter logit model and the hybrid random parameter-latent class model fit the choice data best and did the best job capturing preference heterogeneity.     

Exploring the drivers' side of the “blend wall”: U.S. consumer preferences for ethanol blend fuels

Analysis of stated preferences from over 2300 U.S. respondents shows that general attitudes nationwide favor the use of ethanol as a motor fuel but a sizeable segment (~ 20%) indicated strong unwillingness to buy ethanol blend fuels. Results from a discrete choice experiment analyzed using mixed logit regressions show that, all else constant, price-per-gallon and miles-per-gallon dominated preferences for fuel attributes but ethanol content made the average consumer more likely to choose a blend fuel. Findings provide strong evidence of heterogeneity in preferences driven by attitudes but also affected by age and income. At a point of price per mile equivalence for ethanol and gasoline, in a market where gasoline, E20 and E85 were available with no regulatory, supply or technological constraints, E85 would dominate market share. In this case ethanol would account for 56% of volume of motor fuels consumed. Our results show a high level of consumer substitutability of gasoline with ethanol and willingness to choose high ethanol blend fuels – which could help expand ethanol use beyond the current regulatory and technological limits of the blend wall.     

A proper spent nuclear fuel management strategy could enhance the continuity of nuclear power in the Spanish energy mix

This article presents two economic analyses performed with the Mariño model, which was specially designed to analyse the costs of different spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management strategies in the real Spanish context. These analyses are: (a) a Monte Carlo study for those strategies and (b) the effects of a longer operational lifetime for the Spanish nuclear power plants (NPPs) on the costs of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management. For the first analysis, a triangular distribution for the different unitary costs was assumed and the data and assumptions from numerous studies were used to obtain the values required for the distribution. The second analysis was performed for the current official shutdown dates for the NPPs, and the results were compared to other operational lifetime scenarios. The main assumption for these scenarios was a progressive shutdown of the reactors, in order to avoid numerous shutdowns in a few years. These scenarios were proposed for 40 to 60 years of mean operational lifetime of the reactors. The results show that, for all scenarios analysed, the additional electricity production due to longer operational lifetimes compensate the extra costs caused by the larger amount of SNF to be managed. Additionally, for the current SNF management strategy, a progressive shutdown at 40 years of mean operational lifetime has shown to entail lower costs than the official shutdown scenario. However, a strategy without a centralised interim storage facility would be the most economically favourable one for all the scenarios analysed.     

Are consumers abandoning diesel automobiles because of contrasting diesel policies? Evidence from the Korean automobile market

We investigate whether the contrasting set of transportation policies in Korea — reductions in fuel taxes and increases in diesel automobile prices — has decreased emissions. Using a random-coefficient discrete choice model and hypothetical policy sets, we estimate the automobile demand of consumers, the market share of cars by fuel type, and total emissions, assuming that consumer preferences for driving costs change over time. Then, we separately analyze the effect of each policy set on automobile sales and emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter. Our analyses reveal that Korean consumers have become more sensitive toward fuel costs over time and that the emission consequences of Korean policies depend on consumer preferences.     

Accumulation of nuclear spent fuel from UK power stations

In the absence of a reprocessing industry able to deal with large quantities of irradiated nuclear fuel, it is expected that the bulk of the oxide spent fuel discharged from nuclear reactors will be stored for some decades. In this report the rate of accumulation of spent fuel in the UK and the proportion of its plutonium content is assessed. It is shown that the plutonium content of the metal spent fuel arising from Magnox stations alone should be sufficient to fuel a modest fast breeder programme of 1–2 GW_e well into the next century. As there is an established reprocessing industry for metal fuel, it is argued that reprocessing of oxide fuel need not take place until uncertainties over its cost and necessity are resolved.     

公共安全与低碳经济双重约束下的核能发展模式及路径研究

核能以其清洁、安全、持续、高效为人类提供了17%的能源供给。我国正处于工业化进程的关键时期,发展核能既是经济高速发展和能源安全的需要,也是保护生态环境、履行国际义务的需要。为了最大限度地保证核能安全、高效运行,各国都从技术研发投入,核能监管法制化、运作市场化,社会责任评估和风险预警机制以及公众宣传等方面进行模式创新。我国核能发展正面临着公共安全和低碳经济的双重约束,必须坚持"在确保安全的基础上高效发展核电"的方针,变"适当发展"为"积极发展"。需要改革核能管理体制;加大人才培养和联合研发力度;采取积极的产业政策,按市场规律盘活现有资金;建立社会影响评价和风险准备金机制;采取更为严格的标准重新评估所有核电站厂址安全,借鉴国际先进管理经验制定核电站的安全管理政策;评价和进一步加强在役及在建核电站的安全预警系统;做好公众核知识科普宣传工作,提高公众参与核能发展决策的意识以及对核事故的应急响应能力。     

An analysis of development and research on spent nuclear fuel reprocessing

Nuclear energy comes back to the discussions on the world stage as an energy source that does not contribute to global warming during production process. It can be chosen as the main source of power generation in some countries or complement the energy matrix in others. In this context, there is the need to develop new technologies for the management of radioactive waste generated by the production process. Final repositories for spent fuel are not yet in commercial operation, and techniques for fuel reprocessing have been developed, because after use, the fuel still has materials that produce energy. Some countries already use reprocessing, and develop research to make it more secure and more competitive, while others prefer to adopt policies to prevent developments in this area due to the problem of nuclear proliferation. In another line of research, new reactors are being developed in order to reduce the amount of waste in energy production and some will be designed to work in closed loop, recycling the materials generated.     

The economic competitiveness of promising nuclear energy system: A closer look at the input uncertainties in LCOE analysis

In this study, we aimed to provide important information about the potential economic benefits and risks of nuclear electricity generation associated with existing and prevailing nuclear technologies and to examine the economic effects of nuclear fuel cycle strategies in Korea. An economic analysis model that evaluates the overall life‐cycle costs of nuclear energy systems coupled with multiple fuel cycle options was specially developed by using the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as the fundamental methodology. This model is capable of identifying a range of techno‐economic uncertainties underlying each individual nuclear energy system taking into account the state of the art in fuel cycle technologies. It can also quantify and incorporate the resulting impacts into a system‐wide LCOE distribution for each fuel cycle option based on Monte Carlo probabilistic simulation. We analyzed and discussed examples of the economic performance of 13 promising candidates for nuclear energy systems integrated with extensive fuel cycle technologies (including one direct disposal and 12 specific reprocessing and recycling fuel cycle options). We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the major sensitivity factors of the system component cost in each fuel cycle option and their impacts on individual economic performances. Furthermore, a closer look at the techno‐economic uncertainties of advanced fuel cycle technologies in a break‐even analysis offers evidence of the potential economic feasibility and cost‐reduction opportunities in the reprocessing and recycling options relative to the direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel.     

Spent nuclear fuel policies in historical perspective: An international comparison

The purpose of this article is to explain why the world's nuclear power countries differ from each other with respect to their spent nuclear fuel (SNF) policies. The emergence and evolution of three principal SNF approaches are analyzed: direct disposal, reprocessing and SNF export. Five broad explanatory factors are identified and discussed in relation to the observed differences in policy outcomes: military ambitions and non-proliferation, technological culture, political culture and civil society, geological conditions, and energy policy. SNF policy outcomes can generally be seen to result from a complex interaction between these broad factors, but it is also possible to discern a number of important patterns. To the extent that the five factors may undergo far-reaching changes in the future, the historical experience of how they have shaped SNF policies also give a hint of possible future directions in SNF policymaking around the world.     

Impact of experience on government policy toward acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

As the “low carbon, green growth” agenda, which emphasized sustainable development through equilibrium between economic growth and environmental preservation, is propagated rapidly in Korea. Despite this progress, it is not uncommon for new products made through advanced technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to face public skepticism preventing market penetration. Therefore, the factors impacting customer acceptance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have to be estimated. Furthermore, it is necessary to examine whether or not the policies related to these products can prevent public skepticism regarding them.     

Interfuel substitution in the primary metals industries

This paper applies a translog price possibility frontier to a pooled sample in order to measure the extent of interfuel substitution effects in the primary metals industries. The results clearly indicate that relative changes in fuel prices across primary metals industries have significant effects on energy consumption. This, in turn, has important implications for public policy. In particular, the market system appears better able to deal with exogenous shifts in energy supplies than has frequently been assumed in the formulation of public policies toward the energy crisis.     

The Transformation of the Nuclear Power Industry

During the 1980s and early 1990s, the nuclear power generation industry in the US was viewed by the public as a dying industry owing mainly to concerns about the safety of the nuclear units, the storage of spent nuclear fuel, transportation of nuclear materials to central locations, and the general security of the nuclear facilities. Since then, the industry has transformed itself from one perceived as a dangerous, expensive technology to that of a reliable electrical power source. It is now viewed as a positive source of power from a global warming perspective. Aggressive industry initiatives to improve plant operation and maintenance have alleviated the public fear of nuclear technology. With the public unrest quieted and the cost of non-nuclear generation on the rise, the promise of nuclear power as a safe and reliable energy source may now be realized