Dynamic demand risk assessment for toll road projects

To bridge the gap between supply of and increasing demand for roads, public–private partnership (PPP) concession contracts in which the investment cost is recovered via payments from the end users have been established. Although this mechanism has been seen as an efficient way for road projects to be completed on time and within budget, the demand risk faced during the operation stage has considerably limited this efficiency. Demand depends on a range of interrelated and dynamic factors such as the demographic and economic conditions. In addition, uncertainty is an inherent aspect of most demand-underlying factors which always make demand estimation inaccurate. However, this uncertainty is largely ignored by modellers where a single demand estimate is often used when evaluating the facility. The aim is to develop a system dynamics model to assess demand risk in road projects. The model captures the factors affecting demand and their relationships and simulates their change over time. By employing Monte Carlo simulation, the model assesses the likelihood and potential effect of an event on the outcome and provides a full picture of the various effects of potential risk. The model can help public, private, and financial stakeholders of PPP facilities make more informed decisions.     

Optimized real options-based approach for government guarantees in PPP toll road projects

The uncertainty associated with future traffic levels in Build–Operate–Transfer toll road projects lead to difficulties in obtaining finance and thus to unsuccessful bids. In order to increase the attractiveness of projects for investors, governments usually provide several types of guarantees such as Minimum Revenue Guarantees (MRGs). In many cases, challenges associated with the valuation of this uncertainty force governments to provide excessive guarantees, placing an increased burden on the public budget. Based on this problem, a real-option-based model is presented for the identification of optimum upper and lower boundaries of compound MRG and Maximum Revenue Cap (MRC) options which establish a fair risk allocation structure. The proposed model uses an optimization approach in which high levels of guarantees in initial years are compensated by the transfer of excess revenues obtained by the private investor in late years. The optimum upper and lower boundaries of compound MRG and MRC options are identified using the proposed model. Results reveal that the emerging net guarantee amount generated by using any pair values of the MRG and MRC that remain in the identified interval not only maintains the attractiveness of project for private investors but also restrains government contingent liabilities. Thus, the identified interval of MRG and MRC enables the structuring of a flexible bargaining environment for both parties.     

Efficiency benchmarking and remuneration of Spanish electricity distribution companies

In Spain, the average remuneration of large electric distribution companies is much lower than that of smaller ones, which leads us to wonder if the smaller ones are managed efficiently. A meta-frontier DEA model is calculated in order to benchmark, in terms of remuneration and quality, different clusters of distributors that present different technologies. The sample is composed of 236 distributors (including the five largest units). The savings for the system would be approximately 174 million Euros per year. Moreover, compensation regulation should aim to guide distributors towards their respective intra-cluster frontiers.     

The efficiency of container terminals in the northern region of Brazil

The North region has the largest presence of navigable waterways in Brazil, and the greatest potential for growth in container handling. However, the region lacks research on the performance of the region's port sector. This article aims to analyze the efficiency of the main container terminals in the North of Brazil, using the data envelopment analysis method (DEA). Based on this research, we seek to contribute to improving the efficiency of the analyzed terminals as well as the management of the local port sector.     

The role of efficiency estimates in UK regulatory price reviews: The case of rail

This paper reviews the methods that have been applied to assess the efficiency performance of Britain's rail infrastructure provider since privatisation. The paper shows that a wide range of approaches has been adopted by the ORR. However, we argue that, in contrast to the other regulated sectors, the benchmarking methods developed in rail have not been sufficiently robust to restrain costs to efficient levels. We suggest that the main problem stems from a lack of external comparators based on hard data, such as international benchmarks or comparisons with previous experience under British Rail. Although, during the 2003 Interim Review, the ORR obtained an external perspective through bottom-up consultant reviews, we suggest that such studies are not an adequate substitute for quantitative analysis. Looking forward we suggest that more work needs to be done to obtain a better understanding of the reasons for recent cost increases, and also to develop robust international benchmarks against which to judge Network Rail's relative efficiency position. International comparisons are not straightforward, of course, and it is therefore important to start now, rather than wait until the next review of Network Rail's finances, by which time it will be too late.     

The efficiency of post-reform water utilities in Mexico

The efficiency of Mexican water utilities was studied by applying double bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA). Efficiency scores were calculated and regressed against a set of explanatory variables to analyze the effect of type of management and reform policies on efficiency. Results indicate that the few privately managed utilities in the sample, which are subject to local regulation, may be more efficient than publicly managed utilities operating at different governmental levels. The creation of decentralized autonomous water utilities did not appear to increase efficiency, as was expected from the reform. The policy of cutting water service to non-paying customers, indicating a business orientation, was found to be positively correlated with efficiency.     

高等级公路勘测主要内容

介绍了高等级公路勘测中平面控制测量、高程控制测量、地形测量、路线定线与放线、中桩测量及横断面测量的要求、内容及测量方法,通过对公路勘测内容的综述,从而保证高等级公路测量工作满足要求。     

Methodology and base cost models to determine the total benefits of preservation interventions on road sections in Switzerland

In Switzerland, it is common practice to estimate the total benefits of new roads before they have been built and of road improvement interventions before they have been performed. The guidelines with respect to standardised methodologies and models to be used have been developed (VSS 2003a VSS. 2003a. SN 641 820: Cost-benefit analysis in road traffic, Switzerland: Swiss Association of Road and Traffic Experts (VSS). Technical Committee 2: Planning and Development (in German) [Google Scholar]) and are now in use. It is not yet, however, common practice to estimate the total benefits of road preservation interventions and hence guidelines do not exist with respect to standardised methodologies and models to be used. In order to provide this information, the research package VSS 2004/710-716 was started. This paper presents the methodology and models proposed to be used to evaluate the total benefits of road preservation interventions in Switzerland based on the evaluation and synthesis of existing national and international literature on the relationships between pavement condition and benefits of road use conducted in project 714 of the research package. The use of the methodology and models are demonstrated by determining the optimal intervention strategy for a representative situation in Switzerland. The impact on the optimal intervention strategy of the consideration of multiple stakeholders is investigated.     

Wind of change: Small-scale electricity production and distribution-grid efficiency in Sweden

In this paper, we measure the technical efficiency for local electricity distribution firms in Sweden, and in particular how small and micro-scale generation affects efficiency scores. Using a two-stage data envelopment analysis to model the technical efficiency and a double bootstrap approach to estimate the determinants of inefficiencies, we show that firms are heterogeneous in terms of inefficiency, but that a large share of small and micro-scale generation is not associated with more inefficient operations.     

The role of efficiency estimates in regulatory price reviews: Ofgem's approach to benchmarking electricity networks

Electricity regulators around the world make use of efficiency analysis (or benchmarking) to produce estimates of the likely amount of cost reduction which regulated electric utilities can achieve. This short paper examines the use of such efficiency estimates by the UK electricity regulator (Ofgem) within electricity distribution and transmission price reviews. It highlights the place of efficiency analysis within the calculation of X factors. We suggest a number of problems with the current approach and make suggestions for the future development of X factor setting.     

Quo vadis efficiency analysis of water distribution? A comparative literature review

Recognizing the growing importance of scientific benchmarking in water distribution, we provide a comprehensive survey of the available literature. We begin with a discussion about the (limited) use of benchmarking in the regulation of UK water utilities, and then extend the analysis to regulated water sectors in other countries. We find no clear impact of public or private ownership; instead, the institutional settings appear to be a dominant driver of efficiency. Quality and structural variables are significant parameters; and water losses and population density are also important drivers. Analysis reveals that economies of scale only exist in fragmented water industries, whereas economies of density are omnipresent. We find evidence suggesting important economies of scope (e.g. between water and sewerage). Finally, we summarize the tensions that exist in attempting to measure efficiency in the water industry and draw conclusions about how to improve efficiency analysis in the future.     

灰土挤密桩法在公路软地基处理中的应用

介绍了灰土挤密桩法的适用范围,通过具体工程实例,阐述了灰土挤密桩在公路软基处理中的具体施工方法和注意事项,提出了灰土挤密桩质量检验标准,从而推广灰土挤密桩在公路软基中的应用.     

太原市南沙河沿岸道路设计方案分析

通过分析南沙河沿岸道路的地理环境,制定了沿河道路的设计原则,提出了工程方案的设计标准,并对设计的两种方案进行了阐述,分析了各种方案的优缺点及设计中存在的问题,以选择出最佳的设计方案。     

Assessing the technical efficiency of container ports based on a non-monotonic inefficiency effects model

This study aims to assess the technical efficiency of container ports in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea for the 2017–2019 period. A non-monotonic inefficiency effects model is used since it can reveal non-monotonic relationships and capture observation-specific marginal effects. Findings imply that while increasing physical size has non-monotonic effects on efficiency, increasing connectivity has monotonic positive effects on efficiency. Decision-makers should avoid large-scale infrastructure investments triggered by only the fierce competition to control underutilization. Making decisions focused on higher connectivity about marketing and operational structure could positively impact the performance of container ports.     

The impact of tourism on airport efficiency: The Spanish case

This paper considers the impact of tourism on airports efficiency. Using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) methods, an input-oriented distance function was estimated for a sample of 35 Spanish airports over the 2009 to 2016 period. Air transport and tourism are highly connected. Results suggest that tourist-oriented airports may achieve higher efficiency levels than non-touristic ones. We also demonstrate a relationship between airline business models for tourist arrivals and airport efficiency. Airports with higher shares of "low-cost carrier" passenger traffic appear to perform more efficiently. By comparison, airports with higher shares of “charter passenger” traffic appear to perform less efficiently.     

农村公路养护工程招投标管理

由宝鸡市农村公路现状分析了农村公路养护工程招投标过程,提出应完善养护工程项目建设市场,积极发展工程项目咨询代理,正确理解和把握国家的法律、规范、标准和项目合同文件,从而促进农村公路养护工程管理工作的规范发展。     

Evaluation of the eco-efficiency of territorial districts with seaport economic activities

The port sector has received growing attention from port authority managers and policymakers. The strategic relevance of ports has improved, but the environment is negatively affected by port operations. This study attempts to assess the performance of twenty-four European ports considering their eco-efficiency. The stochastic frontier analysis has been proposed to evaluate the port performance, and several data envelopment analysis estimations have been calculated to verify the consistency condition. Evidence suggests that recent management efforts to increase the volume of the ports’ activity do not impair their eco-efficiency, and policymakers can refer to different theoretical patterns to verify the potential impact of specific measurements targeted at improving eco-efficiency performance.     

公路施工项目部对工程成本控制浅探

分析了项目部加强成本控制对项目管理的重要性,深入探讨了实施项目成本控制的方法和措施,以积累公路施工企业项目管理经验,增强企业的市场竞争力和生存能力,达到进一步降低成本、提高经济效益的目的。     

基于DEA的建筑业上市公司绩效评价

建筑业作为国民经济发展的支柱产业,其健康发展是构建和谐社会、加快经济发展方式转型的保证。本文基于投入产出角度,选取了27家具有代表性的建筑业上市公司近三年的数据作为样本,运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对我国建筑业公司的生产效率进行了分析与评价。研究数据表明:我国大部分建筑企业还处于效率低下、规模报酬增加阶段,公司规模和技术水平都亟待发展。为促进建筑业的良好运行,给投资者的投资决策提供数据分析上的依据,本文对造成企业效率低下的原因进行分析并提出改进意见。