Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems

An accurate product reliability prediction model can not only learn and track the product’s reliability and operational performance, but also offer useful information for managers to take follow-up actions to improve the product’ quality and cost. This study proposes a new method for predicting the reliability for repairable systems. The novel method constructs a predictive model by employing evolutionary neural network modeling approach. Genetic algorithms are used to globally optimize the number of neurons in the hidden layer and learning parameters of the neural network architecture. Moreover, two case studies are presented to illustrate the proposed method. The prediction accuracy of the novel method is compared with that of other methods to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Forecasting of Software Reliability Using Neighborhood Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization Based Novel Neural Network

This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) based software reliability model trained by novel particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for enhanced forecasting of the reliability of software. The proposed ANN is developed considering the fault generation phenomenon during software testing with the fault complexity of different levels. We demonstrate the proposed model considering three types of faults residing in the software. We propose a neighborhood based fuzzy PSO algorithm for competent learning of the proposed ANN using software failure data. Fitting and prediction performances of the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model are compared with the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and existing ANN based software reliability models in the literature through three real software failure data sets. We also compare the performance of the proposed PSO algorithm with the standard PSO algorithm through learning of the proposed ANN. Statistical analysis shows that the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model has comparatively better fitting and predictive ability than the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and other ANN based software reliability models. Faster release of software is achievable by applying the proposed PSO based neural network model during the testing period.      

A reliable multi-objective control strategy for batch processes based on bootstrap aggregated neural network models

This paper presents a reliable multi-objective optimal control method for batch processes based on bootstrap aggregated neural networks. In order to overcome the difficulty in developing detailed mechanistic models, bootstrap aggregated neural networks are used to model batch processes. Apart from being able to offer enhanced model prediction accuracy, bootstrap aggregated neural networks can also provide prediction confidence bounds indicating the reliability of the corresponding model predictions. In addition to the process operation objectives, the reliability of model prediction is incorporated in multi-objective optimisation in order to improve the reliability of the obtained optimal control policy. The standard error of the individual neural network predictions is taken as the indication of model prediction reliability. The additional objective of enhancing model prediction reliability forces the calculated optimal control policies to be within the regions where the model predictions are reliable. By such a means, the resulting control policies are reliable. The proposed method is demonstrated on a simulated fed-batch reactor and a simulated batch polymerisation process. It is shown that by incorporating model prediction reliability in the optimisation criteria, reliable control policy is obtained.     

一种基于模糊神经网络的VBR MPEG视频流量预测模型

针对VBR MPEG视频流的复杂特性，充分利用人工智能方法的优势，提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的视频流量预测模型，利用模糊逻辑模型达到减少预测误差的目的，采用神经网络满足网络通信的实时性要求．实验结果表明，该模型比传统AR模型显著提高了预测的准确度和可靠性．     

基于灰色Elman神经网络软件可靠性预测模型

针对当前软件可靠性预测模型在随机性和动态性较强的可靠性现场数据中存在预测精度波动比较大、适应性比较差的问题,提出一种基于灰色Elman神经网络的软件可靠性预测模型。首先使用灰色GM（1,1）模型对失效数据进行预测,弱化其随机性;然后采用Elman神经网络对GM（1,1）的预测残差进行建模预测,捕捉其动态性变化规律;最后将GM（1,1）预测值和Elman神经网络残差预测值相结合得到最终的预测结果。使用航班查询系统的现场失效数据集进行了模型仿真实验,并将灰色Elman神经网络预测模型与反向传播（BP）神经网络、Elman神经网络预测模型进行比较,其对应的均方误差（MSE）和平均相对误差（MRE）分别为105.1、270.9、207.5和0.0011、0.0021、0.0016,并且灰色Elman神经网络预测模型的误差均为最小值。实验结果表明该模型具有较好的预测精度。     

软件可靠性影响因素权重分析

对软件可靠性早期预测模型的研究,首先必须考虑影响软件可靠性的主要因素。而影响因素权重的确定可以说是整个早期预测模型的“灵魂”。针对主观赋权法和客观赋权法的优缺点,提出了基于神经网络和MIV的组合赋权法来分析软件可靠性的影响因素。该方法首先根据主观赋权法得到影响因素的排序,然后利用神经网络的强大的非线性处理能力以及MIV进行客观分析,从而获得更客观更具解释性的权重值和排序。     

基于级联网络的电力系统短期负荷预测

电力系统短期负荷预测对电力系统运行设计具有十分重要的意义。因此，在分析了电力负荷运行曲线的基础上，提出了一种基于级联模糊神经网络的预测模型。该模型采用基于神经网路理论的模糊模型参数辨识方法，很适合于复杂系统的模糊预测和控制。详细地对输入量的选择和学习算法进行了分析。实例表明，此方法具有町靠、鲁棒性好和快速等特点，优于神经网络电力负荷预报方法。     

A nonlinear prediction model for Chinese speech signal based on RBF neural network

A novel method for Chinese speech time series prediction model is proposed. In order to reconstruct the phase space of Chinese speech signal, the delay time and embedding dimension are calculated by C–C method and false nearest neighbor algorithm. The maximum lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension of Chinese speech phoneme are calculated by wolf algorithm and genetic programming algorithm. The numerical results show that there exists nonlinear characteristics in Chinese speech signal. Based on the analysis method of RBF neural network and the nonlinear characteristic parameters such as the delay time and embedding dimension, a nonlinear prediction model is designed. In order to further verify the prediction performance of the designed prediction model, waveform comparison and four evaluation indexes are used. It is shown that compared with the linear prediction model and back propagation neural network nonlinear prediction model, prediction error of the RBF neural network nonlinear prediction model is significantly reduced, and the model has higher prediction accuracy and prediction performance.

     

Analysis of early warning of corporate financial risk via deep learning artificial neural network

To forecast the financial crisis of manufacturing corporations more accurately, a risk warning model of corporate finance is constructed based on back propagation (BP) neural network to forecast the financial crisis. Firstly, based on the principle of index selection, the forecast indexes are selected and the index system of financial risk early warning is constructed. Then the index system is optimized by factor analysis. Finally, the BP neural network algorithm model is adopted to forecast the financial crisis of 200 manufacturing corporations in 2018 and 2019, and the forecasting results are compared with the traditional method. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the enterprise financial risk early warning model based on the BP neural network for 2018 is above 85%, and the prediction accuracy for 2019 is above 95%, or even 100%. Through comparison with other traditional methods, the prediction accuracy of the BP neural network in 2018 (above 88%) is higher than that of other algorithms (below 87%). In 2019, the prediction accuracy of BP neural network (above 90%) is higher than other algorithms (less than 88%). The accuracy of the proposed financial risk warning model is 95%, and the accuracy is at least 2% higher than traditional method, which prove that the risk early warning model constructed in this study can accurately forecast the financial crisis of the corporation. This study is of important reference value for the establishment of efficient financial crisis forecasting model under deep learning.     

Reliability prediction for evolutionary product in the conceptual design phase using neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment

Reliability prediction plays an important role in product lifecycle management. It has been used to assess various reliability indices (such as reliability, availability and mean time to failure) before a new product is physically built and/or put into use. In this article, a novel approach is proposed to facilitate reliability prediction for evolutionary products during their early design stages. Due to the lack of sufficient data in the conceptual design phase, reliability prediction is not a straightforward task. Taking account of the information from existing similar products and knowledge from domain experts, a neural network-based fuzzy synthetic assessment (FSA) approach is proposed to predict the reliability indices that a new evolutionary product could achieve. The proposed approach takes advantage of the capability of the back-propagation neural network in terms of constructing highly non-linear functional relationship and combines both the data sets from existing similar products and subjective knowledge from domain experts. It is able to reach a more accurate prediction than the conventional FSA method reported in the literature. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated via a case study of the fuel injection pump and a comparative study.     

An expert system based on wavelet decomposition and neural network for modeling Chua’s circuit

This paper presents an expert system based on wavelet decomposition and neural network for modeling and simulation of Chua’s circuit which is used for chaos studies. The problems which arise in modeling Chua’s circuit by neural networks are high structural complexity and slow and difficult training. With this proposed method a new solutions is produced to solve these problems. Wavelet decomposition is used for new useful feature extracting from input signal and neural network is used for modeling. Test results of proposed wavelet decomposition and neural network model are compared with test results of neural network model. Desired performance is provided by this new model. Test results showed that the suggested method can be used efficiently for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems.     

基于排错等待延迟的广义动态集成神经网络模型

软件可靠性增长模型在可靠性评估与保障中具有重要作用,针对软件测试过程中的故障检测和排错等待延迟问题,提出了一种考虑故障排错等待延迟的广义动态集成神经网络模型(RWD-SRGM)。该模型考虑软件工程的多样性,利用神经网络方法构建广义动态集成模型,并考虑排错等待延迟现象完成故障检测和预测。通过2组真实失效数据集(DS1和DS2)的实验,将所提模型与现有的软件可靠性增长模型进行了比较,结果显示考虑故障排错等待延迟的神经网络模型拟合效果最优,表现出了更好的软件可靠性评估性能和模型通用性。     

A convolutional neural network based degradation indicator construction and health prognosis using bidirectional long short-term memory network for rolling bearings

Health prognosis of rolling bearing is of great significance to improve its safety and reliability. This paper presents a novel health prognosis method for the rolling bearing based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) model. First, a new nonlinear degradation indicator (DI) is designed which can be utilized as training label. Then, through learning and capturing the mapping relationship between raw vibration signals and DI of the rolling bearing, a CNN model is introduced to estimate the DI value of the rolling bearing. And, BiLSTM models are set up to carry out health prognosis using the estimated DI, including future DI and remaining useful life prediction. An experiment verification is implemented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results show the excellent ability of future DI prediction, and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method in the field of remaining useful life prediction compared with other existing deep learning models.     

一种软件可靠性增长模型选择与综合方法

软件可靠性增长模型可以预测软件在将来某个时刻的可靠性,以此作为软件是否发布的依据.而目前常见的各种模型对不同失效数据集的预测能力并不一致.提出了一种软件可靠性增长模型选择和应用的框架,利用可靠性模型评价准则,对特定的失效数据集选择优选模型集,根据优选模型集利用神经网络较好的学习预测能力计算可靠性.利用此方法对实际软件项目中的失效数据进行了分析,并验证了它的有效性.     

Robust feedforward and recurrent neural network based dynamic weighted combination models for software reliability prediction

Traditional parametric software reliability growth models (SRGMs) are based on some assumptions or distributions and none such single model can produce accurate prediction results in all circumstances. Non-parametric models like the artificial neural network (ANN) based models can predict software reliability based on only fault history data without any assumptions. In this paper, initially we propose a robust feedforward neural network (FFNN) based dynamic weighted combination model (PFFNNDWCM) for software reliability prediction. Four well-known traditional SRGMs are combined based on the dynamically evaluated weights determined by the learning algorithm of the proposed FFNN. Based on this proposed FFNN architecture, we also propose a robust recurrent neural network (RNN) based dynamic weighted combination model (PRNNDWCM) to predict the software reliability more justifiably. A real-coded genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to train the ANNs. Predictability of the proposed models are compared with the existing ANN based software reliability models through three real software failure data sets. We also compare the performances of the proposed models with the models that can be developed by combining three or two of the four SRGMs. Comparative studies demonstrate that the PFFNNDWCM and PRNNDWCM present fairly accurate fitting and predictive capability than the other existing ANN based models. Numerical and graphical explanations show that PRNNDWCM is promising for software reliability prediction since its fitting and prediction error is much less relative to the PFFNNDWCM.     

A neural network-based approach for dynamic quality prediction in a plastic injection molding process

This paper presents an innovative neural network-based quality prediction system for a plastic injection molding process. A self-organizing map plus a back-propagation neural network (SOM-BPNN) model is proposed for creating a dynamic quality predictor. Three SOM-based dynamic extraction parameters with six manufacturing process parameters and one level of product quality were dedicated to training and testing the proposed system. In addition, Taguchi’s parameter design method was also applied to enhance the neural network performance. For comparison, an additional back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model was constructed for which six process parameters were used for training and testing. The training and testing data for the two models respectively consisted of 120 and 40 samples. Experimental results showed that such a SOM-BPNN-based model can accurately predict the product quality (weight) and can likely be used for various practical applications.     

一种新的智能变电站网络流量预测方法研究

随着智能变电站网络改造的逐步实施,智能变电站网络流程预测技术开始被业界重视起来,智能变电站网络流量一旦发生异常,将直接影响到继电保护装置动作的可靠性、快速性和灵敏性.论文首先将灰色理论和人工神经网络算法相结合,构建灰色神经网络模型并对其进行分析;然后在此基础上通过附加动量变学习速率法对灰色神经网络的权值更新策略进行改进,提出一种基于改进的灰色神经网络智能变电站网络流量预测模型;最后以智能变电站的站控层交换机网络流量数据为例,以采集的原始频率数据为基础进行仿真验证,实验表明,该模型预测精度高,收敛速度快,提高了智能变电站网络流量预测的准确性和快速性,保障电网安全运行.     

引入惩罚收益因素OIF Elman神经网络及其应用*

通过在OIF Elman (Output-Input Feedback Elman)神经网络模型中引入惩罚收益因素,提出了一种基于OIF Elman神经网络的改进模型,并将其用于大气质量的预测和评价.实验模拟结果证明,引入惩罚收益因素OIF Elman模型能够明显提高网络的预测精度,具有极佳的逼近性能,所得预测数据和评价结果与实际结果基本吻合.利用该模型对大气质量进行预测和评价是可行而有效的,具有较好的应用潜能;并为大气环境整治规划提供了一种新的技术和方法.     

Prediction of service life of large centrifugal compressor remanufactured impeller based on clustering rough set and fuzzy Bandelet neural network

In order to predict the service life of large centrifugal compressor impeller correctly, the rough set and fuzzy Bandelet neural network are combined to construct the novel prediction model which can give full play to theirs advantages. The attribute reduction algorithm based rough set and clustering method is firstly designed to optimize the inputting variables of fuzzy Bandelet neural network. And then the prediction model based on fuzzy Bandelet neural network is proposed, the Bandelet function is used as the excitation function of hidden layer and is combined with fuzzy theory to improve the prediction effectiveness of the prediction model. The training algorithm of fuzzy Bandelet neural network is designed based on improved genetic algorithm, the improved genetic algorithm introduces the adaptive differential evolution method into the traditional genetic algorithm, which can effectively optimize the parameters of fuzzy Bandelet neural network. Finally, the original 30 input variables of fuzzy Bandelet neural network are reduced to 9 input nodes based on rough set using 500 remanufacturing impellers as research objects. The service life of remanufacturing impeller is predicted based on three prediction models, and simulation results show that the fuzzy Bandelet neural network optimized by improved genetic algorithm has highest prediction precision and efficiency, which can correctly predict the service life of remanufacturing impeller.     

遗传算法优化小波神经网络的网络流量预测

为了提高网络流量的预测精度,克服小波神经网络收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优的缺点,提出一种遗传算法优化小波神经网络的网络流量预测模型.首先计算延迟时间和嵌入维数,构建小波神经网络的学习样本,然后采用小波神经网络对网络流训练集进行学习,并采用改进遗传算法对小波神经网络参数进行全局寻优,提高收敛速度和网络学习精度,最后采用网络流量数据对模型性能进行仿真分析.结果表明,相对于对比模型,本文模型的平均误差大幅度降低,训练次数急剧减,减小了二次优化训练的次数,具有更大的实际应用价值.