Recent Suburbanization of Blacks How Much,Who, and Where

According to national survey data, blacks have become net migrants from central cities since 1970. Although this reversal of a long-established trend is generally welcomed, critics fear it may be resulting from displacement rather than preference.

Using Census and Annual Housing Survey data on intrametropolitan migration over three time periods, this paper examines the implications of trend reversal for black suburbanization in nineteen of the nation's largest metropolitan areas (SMSAs). Although black net outmigration from cities is generally observed, in only seven of the SMSAs do black rates of movement from city to suburb yet approach those of whites. In most of the other twelve SMSAs, black rates of outmovement have increased little since 1970 and remain well below white rates. Blacks who are above average in income and education consistently have higher rates of outmovement, suggesting that suburban movement still reflects choice more than displacement.     

The Geography of Opportunity and Unemployment: An Integrated Model of Residential Segregation and Spatial Mismatch

Abstract: This article combines the neighborhood effects and spatial mismatch frameworks into a single model explaining how geographic factors contribute to unemployment. Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979) data, I estimate a two‐step model that separately models the effects of segregation and spatial mismatch. The first model predicts educational attainment as a function of exposure to residential segregation as a youth. The second model predicts unemployment probability as an adult as a function of educational attainment and spatial mismatch. The empirical results show that segregation does have discernable effects on educational attainment for blacks, but not for whites. I also find that spatial mismatch affects unemployment probability for blacks, but such an effect is hardly present for whites. A partial equilibrium analysis using predictions from the models shows that large changes in either segregation levels or the central city/suburban distribution of the black population would yield only moderate decreases in unemployment probability for the black population overall. Yet despite small predicted effects, these results should be viewed with caution because the general equilibrium effects of a large scale movement of blacks and whites across metropolitan space are largely impossible to predict with current data.     

RACIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTRAL CITY SCHOOLS,FAMILY INCOME,AND THE SUBURBANIZATION OF BLACK AND WHITE FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN

This paper examines the effects of racial characteristics of central city schools on decisions by individual white and black families with children to move to the suburbs. The extent to which these variables are dependent on the level of total family income is also considered, as well as the effect of income itself. The school characteristics are changes in segregation of central city schools, terminal level of segregation and percent black in the school district. Using logit analysis, terminal level of segregation seems to be more important than either of the other school variables. It appears that whites flow away from relatively desegregated school systems, while blacks are much less likely to move away from them, regardless of income. When the system is relatively segregated, the reverse pattern is observed.     

Poverty,Race, and US Metropolitan Social and Economic Structure

This research evaluates the link between social and economic structural features of US urban areas and the poverty rates of black and white residents in 1990. Using a sample of 112 metropolitan areas (with poverty rates ranging from 9.4% to 45.4% for blacks, and 3.5% to 16.0% for whites) and multiple regression analysis, we find that metropolitan location in the Northeast lowers poverty rates of blacks and whites compared to metropolitan areas in other regions. Moreover, population growth, higher percent black, increased black high school graduation rates, the presence of immigrants, a high percentage of workers employed in manufacturing and relatively few in retailing, low black unemployment, and an older black population are related to lower black poverty rates. For whites, lower poverty rates are related to high racial residential segregation, increased white high school graduation rates, low white unemployment, a large black population, and a high percentage of workers employed in manufacturing and fewer employed in retail sales and professional services.     

CHANGING SETTLEMENT PATTERNS OF BLACK AMERICANS, 1970–1980

Drawn by the attraction of economic betterment and less oppressive social conditions, over six million black Americans left the South between 1870 and 1970 for the major urban centers of the North and West. Over its course, the great migration transformed the black population from a predominantly southern and rural people into a highly urbanized, more nationally distributed, group. In the receiving cities, blacks were confronted with new forms of segregation and virtually excluded from suburbia. A number of important changes in black settlement patterns occurred during the 1970's. First, the century-long exodus out of the South came to an end as opportunities there improved and conditions in the North deteriorated. Second, the Northeast, which had been a major destination of southern blacks for over 100 years, itself became subjected to strong black outmigration tendencies. The Midwest experienced similar trends, but on a smaller scale, and the proportion of blacks residing in the region remained virtually unchanged over the decade. The West continued to draw blacks, and was the only region to register a proportional gain in their numbers. Third, there was a marked shift of blacks to suburban residency, the extent of which varied between metropolitan areas. The exodus was broad enough to produce a net outmigration of blacks from the nation's central cities, a number of which experienced an absolute loss of black residents. Nevertheless, because of the continuing white exodus, the number of large cities gaining black majorities more than doubled during the decade. While enhancing the exercise of black political power in both central cities and suburbs, the changes did little to alter existing patterns of segregated living.     

Black Residential Segregation in the City and Suburbs of Detroit: Does Socioeconomic Status Matter?

According to ecological theory, the socioeconomic status of a minority group is inversely related to the group's level of residential segregation from the majority group. This article determines whether the level of black socioeconomic status is related to the level of black residential segregation in the city of Detroit and Detroit's suburbs. Data were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Census, 1990 Summary Tape Files 4‐A. The methods employed to measure residential segregation were the indexes of dissimilarity D and isolation P*. Indexes were computed by census tract to measure segregation and isolation between blacks and whites at the same level of occupation, income, or education. The results revealed that residential segregation between blacks and whites remained high (i.e., above 50%) in both the city and the suburbs despite comparable socioeconomic status. Blacks in the suburbs were more segregated and isolated than blacks in the city at each socioeconomic level.     

BLACK SUBURBANIZATION AND HOUSING QUALITY IN ATLANTA

During the 1970s, several researchers presented evidence that black suburbanization was increasing in many U.S. metropolitan areas. There was also evidence that blacks were not significantly improving their housing quality through suburbanization. This paper examines 1980 census data to determine whether black population movement in Atlanta is a suburbanization phenomenon leading to better quality housing. Several dozen census tracts are defined as composing Atlanta's black housing space. For each tract's black households, three measures of housing quality are treated as dependent variables. Regression analysis is used to show that a tract's change in black population during the 1970s is associated with all three dependent variables. The addition of suburbanism (population density) as a second independent variable further elaborates the relationship between black population change and two of the housing quality indicators. Thus, black suburbanization in the Atlanta area is leading to better quality housing for black residents.     

SUBURBANIZATION IN THE SEVENTIES: The “Push-Pull” Hypothesis Revisited

ABSTRACT: This article compares the effects of “push” and “pull” factors on decisions of white and black households without children to move from central cities to the suburbs. Unlike previous studies where the independent and dependent variables are aggregate characteristics of the metropolitan areas or individual suburbs, in this article the units are individual households and the variables characteristics of these households or the metropolitan area where they live. The data suggest that black and white decisions are affected by the same variables in the same way, and that blacks and whites are equally likely to move to the suburbs. We also find that both groups tend to move away from the central cities of metropolitan areas with large black populations and in which housing is relatively concentrated in the suburbs, consistent with both the “push” and “pull” hypotheses. However, neither racial group was apparently influenced by job suburbanization or central city crime rates, which is inconsistent with these hypotheses.     

A Spatial Analysis of Job Openings and Access in a U.S. Metropolitan Area

This article presents a study of spatial distribution of job openings and spatial variation in job accessibility in the Boston Metropolitan Area. The most striking finding is that despite decades of employment decentralization, job openings suitable for less-educated job seekers are still relatively concentrated in the central city. This is due to the fact that the great majority of job openings are vacancies resulting from turnover, the spatial concentration of which reflects the spatial concentration of current employment. A related finding is that for a given transportation mode, less-educated job seekers who reside in the central city still have, on average, somewhat better access to job openings than those who reside at the periphery of the metropolitan area. However, accessibility differentials among locations are small as compared to accessibility differentials between transportation modes. For job seekers who can travel by car, the majority of residential locations will allow them to have an access level higher than the average. For job seekers who depend on public transit, on the other hand, very few residential locations will allow them to have an above-average access level. These findings have important policy implications.     

The anti-apartment movement in the U.S. and the role of land use regulations in creating housing segregation

In the U.S., typically, poor and minority households are concentrated in central cities, which are ringed by middle class suburbs which contain a majority of the population of the metropolitan area. The resulting segregation is largely the outcome of public policy and institutional arrangements, rather than the excesses of a free market. Land use regulations have played a central role in creating segregation among the types of housing that are affordable to different income groups. Single family only zoning is a central institution in suburban areas; often multifamily housing is limited to a very tiny portion of the land zoned for housing. Land use policies regarding housing are formulated on a municipal level, in which states have only a minimal role and the federal government has no role. Decentralization of revenue sources and fiscal support for local services, including education, provides incentives for local zoning policies which exclude groups which are viewed as more costly to service, while decentralization of zoning powers make these policies possible. This article describes 1) the basic contours of the housing stock and population distribution in metropolitan areas, 2) the evolution of the single family only policy, and 3) recent efforts to counteract housing segregation patterns, which have had little success. Kenneth K. Baar is a attorney in the Berkeley, California and has a Ph.D. in urban planning. From 1991 to 1993, he was a Fulbright professor at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences. In 1994–95 he was visiting professor in the Urban Planning Department at Columbia University in New York City.     

Holding the Line: Housing Turnover and the Persistence of Racial/Ethnic Segregation in New York City

Abstract: This article uses a panel data set of paired observations of housing units for the most recent inter‐censal period to examine the micro‐level mobility dynamics that maintain disproportionately high levels of white/black segregation in New York City. Multinomial logistic regression models reveal an unmistakable pattern of white avoidance of mixed and predominantly non‐white areas, and areas dominated by blacks, countered by significantly increased odds of Hispanic and particularly black in‐movement to these same areas. Coupled with evidence of enhanced odds of white out‐movement from these same kinds of areas, the results overall indicate that “white flight” as well as white avoidance help to maintain extreme levels of white/black segregation. The pattern of areal effects on the odds of mobility incidence and racial/ethnic turnover also reveal the dynamics that have produced predominantly non‐white areas composed almost exclusively of blacks and Hispanics.     

Falling household size and its effect on metropolitan population growth and density

In determining metropolitan population size and changes therein, urban theorists traditionally have focused on the number of occupied dwelling units or households and have assumed that these households are equal in size. This paper argues that average household size is an indicator of how intensively the housing stock is utilized and that there is substantial variation in household size across SMSAs in the U.S. The experience of 150 SMSAs is examined for the time period 1960 to 1970. The study model attributes varying household size to differentials in birth and divorce rates, racial composition and age of housing. Ramifications of recent household size declines involve the internal spatial organization of metropolitan areas and the Census controversy with cities over alleged undercounts of urban populations.     

WEAKENING STRONG BLACK POLITICAL EMPOWERMENT: IMPLICATIONS FROM ATLANTA'S 2009 MAYORAL ELECTION

Atlanta is perhaps the city with the greatest degree of black political empowerment (BPE) in the United States. Yet in 2009 a relatively weak white mayoral candidate nearly won the general and runoff elections over a field of stronger black candidates. Why? Treating Atlanta as a prototypical case, the article examines factors that undermine the capacity of blacks to retain control of mayoralties in strong BPE cities, with an emphasis on disruptions to black electorates, discontent among black citizens, and reinvestment in electoral politics by whites at the local level.     

CITY SIZE,RACIAL COMPOSITION,AND ELECTION OF BLACK MAYORS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE SOUTH

ABSTRACT: This article examines the linkage between racial composition and likelihood of electing a black mayor in cities of a particular size and location. Special attention is given to cities with a black majority population in 1980 or with a black mayor in 1985. Most black mayors come from cities with black majority populations, but most cities with such a majority do not have black mayors. After controlling for city size and percentage of blacks, it is shown that being located in the South has a continuing negative impact on the likelihood of electing black mayors in black majority cities. The need for the 1982 extention of the Voting Rights Act is discussed.     

西方“空间不匹配”假说研究进展及其对中国城市的启示

西方"空间不匹配"假说认为,工作岗位的郊区化和美国城市中普遍存在的居住隔离是内城少数民族群体失业率较高、收入相对较低和通勤时间较长的重要原因,并将增加内城工作机会、改善内城区与郊区的交通联系等作为消除"空间不匹配"的重要手段.与西方相比,中国的相关研究仍比较薄弱,应在借鉴西方相关研究成果的基础上,形成自己独特的研究视角和分析方法,为解决社会弱势群体就业的空间障碍问题提供参考.     

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RACE AND CLASS IN RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION

Some observers believe that the significance of race as a factor in residential segregation has declined since passage of the Federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, which declared racial discrimination in housing illegal. Thus, the present segregation is seen as more the result of class differences than racial differences. This belief, however, can be empirically tested. The objective of this paper is to determine whether residential segregation between blacks and whites declines once socioeconomic status differences are controlled. Data for this paper were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census's 1980 Summary Tape File 4. The Kansas City, Missouri SMS A is the study area. The method employed to measure residential segregation is the index of dissimilarity. Indices of dissimilarity were computed by census tracts between blacks and whites at the same level of occupation, income and education. The results suggest that race remains the most significant factor in residential segregation.     

HOUSING SEGREGATION IN THE SCHOOL AGE POPULATION AND THE LINK BETWEEN HOUSING AND SCHOOL SEGREGATION: A ST. LOUIS CASE STUDY

The age distributions of the black and white populations vary, as do the ways in which blacks and whites of differing ages are distributed geographically in metropolitan areas. The nature of these differences is such that, in racially mixed neighborhoods, black families with children are often mixed with childless or elderly white adults. For this reason, it is hypothesized that the school-age (5 to 17 years of age) population is more residentially segregated by race than is the total population. To test this hypothesis, segregation indices based on census tract data were computed for the St. Louis SMSA for 1980, for the total population and the school-age population. This analysis confirmed that the school-age population was somewhat more segregated than the total population. The implications of this finding for the problem of school segregation are discussed, as is the interrelationship between housing segregation and school segregation.     

Black‐White Income Inequality and Metropolitan Socioeconomic Structure

Abstract We draw on leading theories about the structural causes of racial inequality in the US to investigate inter‐metropolitan differences in white and black per capita income. The analysis, which is based on a sample of 112 metropolitan areas and uses 1990 census data, examines the influence of spatial, economic, and demographic factors on black‐white income inequality. Our results show severe income inequality between blacks and whites in most metropolitan areas, with black per capita income being 55% of white per capita income, on average. We find that racial educational inequality and unemployment differences were the strongest predictors of racially based income inequality. We also find that metropolitan areas that are highly ranked on a business and financial dominance hierarchy have the most interracial income inequality. However, when a metropolitan area has a high level of manufacturing employment vis‐a‐vis low service employment it has less income inequality. We discuss the implications of these and other findings for theories about, and public policy regarding, urban inequality.     

Neighborhood Affordability and Housing Market Resilience

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Although many researchers have examined factors associated with vulnerability to foreclosure, few have investigated the role neighborhood affordability plays in foreclosures in metropolitan areas. In this study, we examine the effects of location affordability (i.e., housing and transportation affordability combined) on resilience to foreclosure in more than 300?U.S. metropolitan areas during the U.S. housing recovery period. Using hierarchical linear regression with changes in zip code–level home foreclosure rates, our findings suggest the relationship between affordability and foreclosure resilience varies according to urban form (central/high-density city versus suburban low-density area) and types of metropolitan housing markets (boom–bust versus strong versus weak). In the national analysis, where location affordability was high, home foreclosure rates dropped substantially in central/high-density areas but not in suburban low-density areas. When we disaggregated the zip codes according to the market type, location affordability contributed to recovery in central cities in strong and weak metros and in the suburbs of boom–bust metros. There was no positive association in the suburbs of strong and weak metros. With improved data, future studies could measure an association between affordability and lower income renter households.

Takeaway for practice: Our study of the affordability crisis that followed the foreclosure crisis shows that planners can foster resilient and affordable housing markets by expanding and densifying affordable neighborhood locations and considering interactions between the costs of housing and transportation. Planners can improve neighborhood affordability with local and regional strategies based on the local residential density and the type of metropolitan housing market.