Outdoor background ELF magnetic fields in an urban environment

Classification of 'exposed/non-exposed' subjects in epidemiological studies concerning the possible cancer risk associated with ELF magnetic field exposure is based on the a priori assumption of magnetic field value cut-off points that, often, are defined equal to minimum exposure levels typical of a population residing near high voltage facilities (0.1-4.2 microT), but in some cases an environmental magnetic field level not associated with transmission lines can exist. The results of an ELF magnetic field survey in an Italian urban area (about 1 million inhabitants) are presented: average field levels are correlated with population density of different districts. Exposure indexes are obtained, which are compared with those evaluated in studies regarding domestic exposure: background average levels result in comparable to cut-off points in epidemiological studies, but in some districts with high population density, they are much higher. This shows that knowledge of background magnetic field level in urban areas can assume a significant role in exposure assessment.     

Assessment of ELF magnetic fields produced by independent power lines

In this paper, the problem of assessing the ELF (extremely low-frequency) magnetic fields produced, in a certain area characterised by the presence of more than one independent power line, is faced. The use of the incoherent summation of the single contributions, as an advantageous estimator of the total magnetic field, is proposed and justified by means of a heuristic procedure. This kind of approach can be seen as a useful and practical tool to be employed in environmental impact analysis and in assessing long-term human exposure to ELF magnetic fields.     

Influence of probe size on the measurement accuracy of non-uniform ELF magnetic fields

The accuracy of extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic field measurements can be sensitively varied by the meter probe size when the spatial distribution of the magnetic flux density is highly non-uniform, e.g. if the measurement point is close to the field source. The deviation between measured and actual field varies from point to point depending on the probe dimension and on the source configuration, once the other measurement conditions are fixed. The analysis of this effect is developed through a two-dimensional numerical model that enables the evaluation of the actual field value and of the corresponding probe indication. The error distribution, i.e. the deviation between actual and measured value, is computed for magnetic fields generated by industrial three-phase systems under both balanced and unbalanced supply conditions. The analysis shows how, for a given source, the error depends not simply on the distance from the source in relation to the probe size, but on its spatial distribution, which is complex and cannot be a priori predicted without using a computational tool such as the one proposed.     

Site-specific health risk assessment of dioxins and furans in an industrial region with numerous emission sources

While the sources of releasing dioxins have received much attention, the health risks of incinerators are studied considerably more than those of other sources, such as metallurgical industry. Furthermore, risk assessments focus primarily on the effects of single sources; few have addressed the aggregate risks from multiple sources in a region. When many sources of dioxins exist in an area, such as the Industrial Park located in the densely populated district—Siaogang District in southern Taiwan where 17 primary known PCDD/F stationary emission sources are clustered, is the aggregate exposure to these sources imposing high risks even though individual sources comply with emission standards? The study combined the multimedia and multiple pathway exposure modeling and site-specific exposure scenario to assess dioxin risks contributed by the 17 emission sources in the District, including municipal waste incinerators, medical waste incinerators, sinter plants, electric arc furnace, secondary aluminum smelters, cement kilns, etc. The average cancer risk of a resident living in the District was found to be 3.43E−04 under the site-specific exposure scenario. The top emission source is the sinter plant, followed by the electric arc furnace. The information has driven the local government to conduct more complete assessment and at the same time to consider enforcing a stricter local standard of dioxin emissions in the Siaogang District.     

Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment

Dealing with uncertainty is an important and difficult aspect of analyses for complex systems. Such systems involve many uncertainties, and assessing probabilities to represent these uncertainties is itself a complex undertaking utilizing a variety of information sources. At a very basic level, uncertainty is uncertainty, and attempting to distinguish between ‘types of uncertainty’ is questionable. At a practical level, on the other hand, a close look at such distinctions suggests that they are driven by important modelling issues related to model structuring, probability assessment, information gathering, and sensitivity analysis. Anything that brings more attention to these issues should improve the state of the art. However, I would prefer to attack the issues directly instead of working indirectly through the notion of ‘types of uncertainty.’     

风险评估技术的选择

选择合适的风险评估技术和方法,有助于组织及时高效地获取准确的评估结果.在实践中,风险评估活动的复杂及详细程度千差万别.风险评估的形式及结果应与组织的自身情况适合,并在明确环境信息时确定.     

Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined.     

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers’ preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified.     

Meaning and contextualisation in risk assessment

This paper presents an analysis of the construction of risk as a social process. It provides a critique of Jasanoff's ‘two cultures’ model of the risk assessment community, arguing that corresponding rhetorics serve to obscure the hybrid nature of risk. It is argued that a new perspective, based on the contextualisation of expert scientific knowledge is needed, which transcends reductionist tendencies that view risk assessment as simply about either material artefacts or social constructions. Such approaches have the potential, it is suggested, to address not only the complexity but also the moral and political dilemmas associated with a wide range of risk management problems.     

Constrained noninformative priors in risk assessment

A constrained noninformative prior distribution, a generalization of the Jeffreys noninformative prior, is defined for a single unknown parameter as the distribution corresponding to the maximum entropy distribution, subject to the assumed constraint(s), in the transformed model where the unknown parameter is approximately a location parameter. This note illustrates this idea with binomial and Poisson data models, and gives an example from risk assessment showing the practical usefulness of the constrained noninformative prior.     

Development of a multi-pathway probabilistic health risk assessment model for swimmers exposed to chloroform in indoor swimming pools

For swimmers, exposure to chloroform, a probable carcinogen, in indoor swimming pools can be through different pathways such as ingestion, dermal absorption, inhalation during swimming, and inhalation during resting. In order to evaluate health risk results from excessive exposure to chloroform, concentrations of chloroform in pool water were first collected and analyzed. Then, a two-layer model is used, which is capable of estimating the concentrations of chloroform in the boundary layer adjacent to the water surface and the concentrations of chloroform in indoor swimming pool air. The use of stratification model is important for estimating the risks for swimmers since they are exposed to these kinds of situations while performing swimming and resting in indoor swimming pools environment. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) was then estimated using the multi-pathway exposure model. The results showed that the 95th percentile of ILCRs calculated for male and female swimmers were 2.80 × 10(-4) and 2.47 × 10(-4), respectively. The major exposure routes were found to be inhalation during swimming which contributes to more than 99% of the total health risk. Our study suggested that to protect swimmers from excessive exposure to chloroform, alternative methods or processes of disinfection should be considered for swimming pool managers.     

Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.     

信息安全风险评估方法的应用

信息安全风险评估,是依据信息安全技术与管理标准,对信息系统及由其处理、传输和存储的信息的机密性,完整性和可用性等安全属性进行风险评价和控制的过程.     

Uncertainty in health risk analysis

This paper discuss several quantitative issues that arise in the analysis of health risks, beginning with principles such as de minimis and zero-risk. The paper also provides a probabilistic definition of risk in terms of hazard, context, consequence, magnitude, and uncertainty. The example relies on this definition to investigate, through sensitivity analysis, the effect that uncertainty has on the results obtained. The results, from a case study based on waterborne total arsenic, show that the choice of dose—response functions causes more uncertainty than any other component of risk analysis. Chemical carcinogenesis provides the basis for discussing inability to know as well as uncertainty. The conclusion is that risk analysis keeps uncertainty and inability to know separate; through this function, it provides a much needed method to present information to decision makers and the public.     

Technical diagnostics in accident risk assessment

For a comprehensive assessment of safety of hazardous facilities, an accident risk ratio is used. Existing methodologies of risk assessment do not account for technical conditions of the facility and the degree of its defectiveness. This work demonstrates the possibility and necessity of a broader use of nondestructive testing (NDT) and technical diagnostics (TD) to estimate the probability of an accident, formulates the requirements for analyzing the risk, and establishes the line of development for these approaches. We consider the issues related to introducing new requirements for NDT and TD, which deal with representing the quantitative values of NDT, i.e., reliable data on the size of defects and measurement errors. We prove the necessity of using the methods of probabilistic fracture mechanics for assessing the real values of accident probability.     

Facts and values in risk assessment

Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those ‘values’ are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy.     

Assessment of inhomogeneous ELF magnetic field exposures

In daily life as well as at workplaces, exposures to inhomogeneous magnetic fields become very frequent. This makes easily applicable compliance assessment methods increasingly important. Reference levels have been defined linking basic restrictions to levels of homogeneous fields at worst-case exposure conditions. If reference levels are met, compliance with basic restrictions can be assumed. If not, further investigations could still prove compliance. Because of the lower induction efficiency, inhomogeneous magnetic fields such as from electric appliances could be allowed exceeding reference levels. To easily assess inhomogeneous magnetic fields, a quick and flexible multi-step assessment procedure is proposed. On the basis of simulations with numerical, anatomical human models reference factors were calculated elevating reference levels to link hot-spot values measured at source surfaces to basic limits and allowing accounting for different source distance, size, orientation and position. Compliance rules are proposed minimising assessment efforts.