Robust likelihood inference for regression parameters in partially linear models

A robust likelihood approach is proposed for inference about regression parameters in partially-linear models. More specifically, normality is adopted as the working model and is properly corrected to accomplish the objective. Knowledge about the true underlying random mechanism is not required for the proposed method. Simulations and illustrative examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed robust likelihood method, even in irregular situations caused by the components of the nonparametric smooth function in partially-linear models.     

Robust control of multidimensional nonstationary linear plants

Solved was the problem was of constructing a robust control system with linear nonstationary multidimensional control plant compensating the parametric and external bounded perturbations to within δ if the derivatives of the output vector are not measured and fully if the derivatives are measured.     

Robust clusterwise linear regression through trimming

The presence of clusters in a data set is sometimes due to the existence of certain relations among the measured variables which vary depending on some hidden factors. In these cases, observations could be grouped in a natural way around linear and nonlinear structures and, thus, the problem of doing robust clustering around linear affine subspaces has recently been tackled through the minimization of a trimmed sum of orthogonal residuals. This “orthogonal approach” implies that there is no privileged variable playing the role of response variable or output. However, there are problems where clearly one variable is wanted to be explained in terms of the other ones and the use of vertical residuals from classical linear regression seems to be more advisable. The so-called TCLUST methodology is extended to perform robust clusterwise linear regression and a feasible algorithm for the practical implementation is proposed. The algorithm includes a “second trimming” step aimed to diminishing the effect of leverage points.     

Robust linear and support vector regression

The robust Huber M-estimator, a differentiable cost function that is quadratic for small errors and linear otherwise, is modeled exactly, in the original primal space of the problem, by an easily solvable simple convex quadratic program for both linear and nonlinear support vector estimators. Previous models were significantly more complex or formulated in the dual space and most involved specialized numerical algorithms for solving the robust Huber linear estimator. Numerical test comparisons with these algorithms indicate the computational effectiveness of the new quadratic programming model for both linear and nonlinear support vector problems. Results are shown on problems with as many as 20000 data points, with considerably faster running times on larger problems     

Collinearity detection in linear regression models

Multicollinearity can seriously affect least-squares parameter estimates. Many methods have been suggested to determine those parameters most involved. This paper, beginning with the contributions of Belsley, Kuh, and Welsch (1980) and Belsley (1991), forges a new direction. A decomposition of the variable space allows the near dependencies to be isolated in one sub-space. And this, in turn, allows a corresponding decomposition of the main statistics, as well as a new one proposed here, to provide better information on the structure of the collinear relations.     

Adaptive control with recursive identification for stochastic linear systems

This paper presents a stochastic adaptive control algorithm which is shown to possess the following properties when applied to a possibly unstable, inverse stable, linear stochastic system with unknown parameters, whenever that system satisfies a certain positive real condition on its (moving average) noise dynamics. 1) The adaptive control part of the algorithm stabilizes and asymptotically optimizes the behavior of the system in the sense that the (limit of the) sample mean-square variation of the-output around a given demand level equals that of a minimum variance control strategy implemented with known parameters. This optimal behavior is subject to an offset μ²where μ²is the variance of a dither signal added to the control action in order to produce a "continually disturbed control." Formu^{2} > 0, it is shown that the input-output process satisfies a persistent excitation property, and hence, subject to a simple identifiability condition, the next property holds. 2) The observed input and output of the controlled system may be taken as inputs to an approximate maximum likelihood algorithm (AML) which generates strongly consistent estimates of the system's parameters. Results are presented for the scalar and multivariable cases.     

Robust bandwidth selection in semiparametric partly linear regression models: Monte Carlo study and influential analysis

In this paper, under a semiparametric partly linear regression model with fixed design, we introduce a family of robust procedures to select the bandwidth parameter. The robust plug-in proposal is based on nonparametric robust estimates of the νth derivatives and under mild conditions, it converges to the optimal bandwidth. A robust cross-validation bandwidth is also considered and the performance of the different proposals is compared through a Monte Carlo study. We define an empirical influence measure for data-driven bandwidth selectors and, through it, we study the sensitivity of the data-driven bandwidth selectors. It appears that the robust selector compares favorably to its classical competitor, despite the need to select a pilot bandwidth when considering plug-in bandwidths. Moreover, the plug-in procedure seems to be less sensitive than the cross-validation in particular, when introducing several outliers. When combined with the three-step procedure proposed by Bianco and Boente [2004. Robust estimators in semiparametric partly linear regression models. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 122, 229-252] the robust selectors lead to robust data-driven estimates of both the regression function and the regression parameter.     

Robust nonlinear model identification methods using forward regression

In this correspondence new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness via combined parameter regularization and new robust structural selective criteria. In parallel to parameter regularization, we use two classes of robust model selection criteria based on either experimental design criteria that optimizes model adequacy, or the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic that optimizes model generalization capability, respectively. Three robust identification algorithms are introduced, i.e., combined A- and D-optimality with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm, respectively; and combined PRESS statistic with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalization scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularized orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms.     

Robust stability in linear state space models

A new sufficient condition is presented for the stability of interval matrices based on Kharitonov's theorem (1978).     

Robust inference in generalized partially linear models

In many situations, data follow a generalized partly linear model in which the mean of the responses is modeled, through a link function, linearly on some covariates and nonparametrically on the remaining ones. A new class of robust estimates for the smooth function η, associated to the nonparametric component, and for the parameter , related to the linear one, is defined. The robust estimators are based on a three-step procedure, where large values of the deviance or Pearson residuals are bounded through a score function. These estimators allow us to make easier inferences on the regression parameter and also improve computationally those based on a robust profile likelihood approach. The resulting estimates of turn out to be root-n consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Besides, the empirical influence function allows us to study the sensitivity of the estimators to anomalous observations. A robust Wald test for the regression parameter is also provided. Through a Monte Carlo study, the performance of the robust estimators and the robust Wald test is compared with that of the classical ones.     

Robust identification for multi-section freeway traffic models

1IntroductionIt is important to estimate the densityandspeed oftrafficfor the safetyandtraffic control .For decades ,manyresearchwork have been done to estimate traffic density, trafficvolume ,average speed,and other parameters[1,2] .Theproblemof estimating dynamic traffic has been involved inparts of those research work[1 ~4] .By means of O_Dmatrix,some researchers have also made a series of studiesof traffic prediction and traffic layout estimation[5] .However , most of the research work m…     

Robust identification for multi_section freeway traffic models

Since it is difficult to fit measured parameters using the conventional traffic model, a new traffic density and average speed model is introduced in this paper.To determine traffic model structures accurately, a model identification method for uncertain nonlinear system is developed.To simplify uncertain nonlinear problem, this paper presents a new robust criterion to identify the multi-section traffic model structure of freeway efficiently.In the new model identification criterion,numerically efficient U-D factorization is used to avoid computing the determinant values of two complex matrices.By estimating the values of U-D factor of data matrix, both the upper and lower bounds of system uncertainties are described. Thus a model structure identification algorithm is proposed.Comparisons between identification outputs and simulation outputs of traffic states show that the traffic states can be accurately predicted by means of the new traffic models and the structure identification criterion.     

广义输出误差模型的两阶段最小二乘递推辨识

在有色噪声干扰系统中有一类系统, 它具有广义输出误差模型(OEARMA), 本文提出一类广义输出误差模型的 两阶段递推最小二乘参数估计算法. 该算法基本思想是结合辅助模型辨识思想和分解技术, 将系统分解成两个子系统, 每个子系统包含一个参数向量. 借助基于辅助模型和递推最小二乘理论, 用辅助模型的输出代替辨识模型信息向量中未 知中间变量, 用估计残差代替信息向量中不可测噪声项, 从而可以运用递推辨识思想来估计系统所有参数. 该算法具有 较高的计算效率, 仿真例子说明提出算法的有效性.     

Robust identification of process models from plant data

A precursor to any advanced control solution is the step of obtaining an accurate model of the process. Suitable models can be obtained from phenomenological reasoning, analysis of plant data or a combination of both. Here, we will focus on the problem of estimating (or calibrating) models from plant data. A key goal is to achieve robust identification. By robust we mean that small errors in the hypotheses should lead to small errors in the estimated models. We argue that, in some circumstances, it is essential that special precautions, including discarding some part of the data, be taken to ensure that robustness is preserved. We present several practical case studies to illustrate the results.     

Constrained linear regression models for symbolic interval-valued variables

This paper introduces an approach to fitting a constrained linear regression model to interval-valued data. Each example of the learning set is described by a feature vector for which each feature value is an interval. The new approach fits a constrained linear regression model on the midpoints and range of the interval values assumed by the variables in the learning set. The prediction of the lower and upper boundaries of the interval value of the dependent variable is accomplished from its midpoint and range, which are estimated from the fitted linear regression models applied to the midpoint and range of each interval value of the independent variables. This new method shows the importance of range information in prediction performance as well as the use of inequality constraints to ensure mathematical coherence between the predicted values of the lower () and upper () boundaries of the interval. The authors also propose an expression for the goodness-of-fit measure denominated determination coefficient. The assessment of the proposed prediction method is based on the estimation of the average behavior of the root-mean-square error and square of the correlation coefficient in the framework of a Monte Carlo experiment with different data set configurations. Among other aspects, the synthetic data sets take into account the dependence, or lack thereof, between the midpoint and range of the intervals. The bias produced by the use of inequality constraints over the vector of parameters is also examined in terms of the mean-square error of the parameter estimates. Finally, the approaches proposed in this paper are applied to a real data set and performances are compared.     

Robust estimation in multiple linear regression model with non-Gaussian noise

The traditional least squares estimators used in multiple linear regression model are very sensitive to design anomalies. To rectify the situation we propose a reparametrization of the model. We derive modified maximum likelihood estimators and show that they are robust and considerably more efficient than the least squares estimators besides being insensitive to moderate design anomalies.     

Robust real-time identification of linear systems with correlated noise

The problem of recursive robust identification of linear discrete-time single-input single-output dynamic systems with correlated disturbances is considered. Problems related to the construction of optimal robust stochastic approximation algorithms in the min-max sense are demonstrated. Since the optimal solution cannot be achieved in practice, several robustified stochastic approximation algorithms are derived on the basis of a suitable non-linear transformation of normalized residuals, as well as step-by-step optimization with respect to the weighting matrix of the algorithm. The convergence of the developed algorithms is established theoretically using the ordinary differential equation approach. Monte Carlo simulation results are presented for the quantitative performance evaluation of the proposed algorithms. The results indicate the most suitable algorithms for applications in engineering practice.     

Robust nonlinear system identification using neural-network models.

We study the problem of identification for nonlinear systems in the presence of unknown driving noise, using both feedforward multilayer neural network and radial basis function network models. Our objective is to resolve the difficulty associated with the persistency of excitation condition inherent to the standard schemes in the neural identification literature. This difficulty is circumvented here by a novel formulation and by using a new class of identification algorithms recently obtained by Didinsky et al. (1995). We present a class of identifiers which secure a good approximant for the system nonlinearity provided that some global optimization technique is used. Subsequently, we address the same problem under a third, worst case L(infinity) criterion for an RBF modeling. We present a neural-network version of an H(infinity)-based identification algorithm from Didinsky et al., and show how it leads to satisfaction of a relevant persistency of excitation condition, and thereby to robust identification of the nonlinearity.     

Optimal experiment design for regression polynomial models identification

In this paper the problem of optimal experimental design for parameter identification of static non-linear blocks is addressed. Non-linearities are assumed to be polynomial and represented according to the Vandermonde base. The optimality problem is formulated in a set membership context and the cost functions to be minimized are the worst case parameter uncertainties. Closed form optimal input sequences are derived when the input u is allowed to vary on a given interval [ u a, u b ]. Since optimal input sequences are, in general, not invariant to base changes, results and criteria for representing polymomials with different bases, still preserving the optimal set of input levels derived from the Vandermonde parameterization, are introduced as well. Finally numerical results are reported showing the effectiveness of using optimal input sequences especially when identifying some block described dynamic models that include in their structure static non-linearities (such as Hammerstein and LPV models). In such cases the improvement achieved in the confidence of the estimates can add up to a factor of several hundreds with respect to the case of random generated inputs.