Stochastic convergence in per capita energy use in world

This paper examines the pattern of convergence in per capita energy use in a sample of 109-country covering the period 1971–2013. In addition to the full sample of countries, existence of convergence is also examined in seven subsets of countries: OECD countries, OPEC countries, and also countries in America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, Europe, and the Middle East. In contrast to the previous studies which mainly used unit root or stationarity tests, we use the results from subsampling confidence intervals. Furthermore, instead of considering convergence to a particular country benchmark, we explore all the possible pair-wise convergences. The findings, based on 7962 pairs of countries, are more favorable to the existence of the convergence. Another finding of the paper is that the per capita energy use, despite being convergent, is highly persistent.     

OECD energy intensity

This paper focuses on several different measures of Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries?? energy intensity levels, plots their trends, applies a number of techniques to determine whether those intensities are converging, explores the importance of that convergence, and estimates the future steady-state or long-run distribution of energy intensity for the OECD. The paper finds that OECD energy intensity typically is declining, and a number of parametric and nonparametric methods indicate a strong degree of convergence. However, convergence is conditioned on country specific factors since differences in individual energy/GDP ratios persist. These findings suggest limits to the general decline in developed country energy intensity.     

Linear and nonlinear TAR panel unit root analyses for solid biomass energy supply of European countries

Biomass is one of the major sources of renewable energy in the World. This paper aims at observing primary biomass energy supply in some EU countries within periods1971–2009 and 1982–2009. Following related two panel data sets for biomass in EU, this work employs linear models and nonlinear threshold autoregression (TAR) models to test linearity against nonlinearity and nonstationarity against stationarity. If nonlinearity is found, then, the next step is to search transition variable and threshold value of the panel data sets. This paper eventually has the purpose to reveal if EU countries converge in the production of biomass in a linear form or nonlinear form. Findings show that panel of Austria, Denmark, Finland, France and Portugal follows nonlinear process and reaches partial convergence in per million primary solid biomass energy supply. However, the involvement of Belgium, Greece, Norway, Poland and Sweden to the panel yields linearity and divergence. One may suggest policy makers of EU and/or OECD, upon conclusion of this paper, to revise their energy policies to stimulate both production and consumption of biomass energy source.     

Analysis of oil export dependency of MENA countries: Drivers,trends and prospects

The purpose of this paper is to analyse how oil export dependencies of Middle East and North African (MENA) oil producers have evolved over the past two decades and to identify the main driving factors from an energy policy perspective. The paper expresses the oil export dependency of each economy in terms of a multiplicative identity that captures effective export price, export to primary oil supply ratio, oil dependency and oil export intensity of the country. Using the data for 1980–2006, the evolution in these factors is investigated for seven MENA countries and the influence of the above factors is decomposed using the Laspeyres index. The analysis shows that energy price and increasing energy intensity in the MENA countries have influenced the overall oil export dependency. Reducing the energy intensity can improve oil export revenue share to GDP by 5–10% in most of the countries while Iran can gain significantly by increasing its export volume.     

Energy consumption,energy R&D and real GDP in OECD countries with and without oil reserves

The objective of the study is to shed light on the contributions of energy consumption and energy R&D on economic growth. We examine two sets of causal relationship between (1) capital stock, energy consumption and real GDP and (2) capital stock, energy R&D and real GDP using panel-based fully-modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) for 20 OECD countries over the period of 1980–2010. Since different countries may respond differently to energy consumption and energy R&D, the sample is further divided into two groups: OECD countries with oil reserves and without oil reserves. Similarly, energy consumption and energy R&D are also further divided into fossil fuel energy and renewable energy. The results show that the role of energy R&D should not be overlooked and fossil fuel R&D is found to drive economic growth more than fossil fuel consumption. The findings also show that while capital stock and fossil fuels are the key factors driving economic growth, renewable energy promotes real output, specifically in the countries without oil reserves.     

Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries

Unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production, this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2010. In particular, newly developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed. The results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among OECD countries.     

Economy-wide and manufacturing energy productivity transition paths and club convergence for OECD and non-OECD countries

This work aims at developing a further understanding of the transition dynamics of energy productivity for a sample of 33 countries – including 23 low to middle income non-OECD countries – over the period 1971 to 2008. The focus of this work is on economy-wide and manufacturing energy productivities. We employ two steps of analysis, a preliminary step using simple methods consisting of sigma and gamma convergence and a second step employing a recent clustering algorithm that sorts countries into clubs. That clustering algorithm identified four clubs for economy-wide energy productivity and six clubs for manufacturing energy productivity. The newly industrializing countries and OECD countries were members of the better performing clubs.     

Home energy use in nine OECD countries, 1960–1980

Government institutions and individuals have responded to fluctuations in energy supply and price with the implementation of policies and the initiation of conservation. While these activities have resulted in noticeable conservation of energy, primarily through behavioural actions, further savings could be achieved through the exchange of information regarding promising policies and technologies. Toward this end, data on residential sector energy use for nine OECD countries (Canada, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA) have been collected over the period 1960–1980 and have been analysed using both indicators of energy-use intensity and econometric methods.     

Carbon dioxide emissions in OECD service sectors: the critical role of electricity use

From the early 1970s to mid 1990s, service sector CO₂ emissions have increased significantly in OECD countries, despite marked declines in energy intensity. This development is underscored by a widespread shift from fuel use to electricity use in commercial buildings. Service sectors in countries that produce low-carbon electricity, particularly those that operate nuclear- and hydro-powered utilities, have most successfully restrained CO₂ emissions. This study analyzes the impact of activity, structure, energy intensity, fuel mix, and utility mix on carbon emissions in the service sector for 13 OECD countries, and contrasts the developments before 1990 with those afterwards. The major findings of this analysis are:

(i) Carbon emissions, which rose in 9 of the 13 countries investigated, were bolstered in every country by an expansion of floor area and service sector GDP,

(ii) Declines in energy intensity and carbon intensity lessened the magnitude of emissions increases,

(iii) Electricity's share of final energy use rose in all 13 countries, but affected carbon emissions quite differently among countries,

(iv) After 1990, energy intensity improvements applied less downward pressure on emissions, while reductions in the average carbon content of final energy restrained emissions more strongly.     

Have European gas prices converged?

The development of a single European market for gas has been a goal of EU policy makers since the Single European Act (SEA) of 1986. EU Directives of 1996 and 1998 put these aspirations into action. However, casual empiricism suggests that convergence may have begun before this. This paper investigates whether gas prices in Europe have converged since 1978. Using annual data, three empirical tests for convergence are applied to gas prices for six EU Member States; a simple test for β-convergence; a cointegration test; and Nahar and Inder's [2002. Testing convergence in economic growth for OECD countries. Applied Economics 34, 2011–2022] test. The results from two of these three tests suggest that convergence did occur for most of the countries in the sample over this period.     

International residential energy end use data: Analysis of historical and present day structure and dynamics

International comparisons of residential energy use have been hindered in the past by lack of data and common measuring systems. In this paper, we report on ongoing efforts to disaggregate data on residential space comfort and appliance energy use for major member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Indicators of structure (i.e. dwelling size, number of appliances, incomes) and of intensity (energy use per degree day, etc.) are developed for various countries and compared. It is shown that there is much room for energy conservation by reductions in energy intensity, even while structural factors (e.g., rising incomes) tend to increase energy use.     

Residential energy use and conservation in Denmark, 1965–1980

New data have been assembled to quantify patterns of residential energy use in Denmark from 1965 to 1980 by fuel and end use. Indicators of the structure and intensity of energy use are developed from basic data and reviewed. Changes since 1972 are quantified and compared with those observed in other countries. The reduction in oil use in oil-heated dwellings is shown to be the largest among OECD countries. Elements of past, present and future Danish conservation policies are reviewed. While many of these are unique and far reaching, the predominant cause of conservation up until 1980 has been short-term measures stimulated primarily by higher energy prices.     

Convergence of European natural gas prices

Over the period 2015–2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly heterogeneous. We study the determinants of cross-country convergence of natural gas prices for industrial consumers in fourteen European countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the notions of pairwise, relative and σ-convergence. We show that there is evidence of pairwise price convergence and that some key characteristics of gas markets, such as the existence of trading hubs and the degree of interconnection, are positively associated with the existence of a convergence process. This result carries over to the notion of σ-convergence and is robust to a number of changes in the implementation of the statistical tests. The analysis of relative convergence points to the existence of price-growth convergence, while price-level convergence is not supported by the data. Lastly, we assess the short-run implications of price convergence focusing on the speed of reversion to equilibrium after a system-wide shock hits the cointegrating relation.     

Towards a sustainable energy scenario? A worldwide analysis

This paper studies the worldwide evolution of energy intensity for a large sample of countries during the period 1990–2015, differentiating between non-renewable, non-clean and total energy intensity. This division allows us to establish more precise policy recommendations which, along with the use of the Phillips and Sul (2009) methodology, provides the novelty of the analysis. Our results refute recent evidence favouring the hypothesis of global convergence for all types of energy intensity. Grouping countries either by regions or by income level, the evidence against this hypothesis remains overwhelming, with very few exceptions. Nonetheless, we can observe the presence of several convergence clubs, whose creation strongly depends on energy prices as well as on external energetic dependency. In any event, results relating to the different types of energy intensity are varied, suggesting that previous policy recommendations aimed at tackling climate change based on total energy intensity analyses are questionable.     

A note on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: A pooled mean group approach

This paper investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for CO₂ emissions is satisfied using the panel data of 28 countries by taking nuclear energy into account. Using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation method, our main results indicate that (1) the impacts of nuclear energy on CO₂ emissions are significantly negative, (2) CO₂ emissions actually increase monotonically within the sample period in all cases: the full sample, OECD countries, and non-OECD countries, and (3) the growth rate in CO₂ emissions with income is decreasing in OECD countries and increasing in non-OECD countries.     

Dutch sectoral energy intensity developments in international perspective, 1987–2005

This paper makes use of a new dataset to investigate energy intensity developments in the Netherlands over the period 1987–2005. The dataset allows for a comparison with 18 other OECD countries. A key feature of our analysis is that we combine a cross-country perspective with a high level of sectoral detail, covering 49 sectors. Particularly innovative is our evaluation of energy intensity developments in a wide range of Service sectors. We find that across sectors, energy intensity levels in the Netherlands on average decreased only marginally, and increased in Services. This performance is in general worse than the OECD average, especially between 1987 and 1995. Changes in the sectoral composition of the economy play an important role in explaining aggregate trends. In the Manufacturing sector, about half of the efficiency improvements were undone by a shift towards a more energy-intensive industry structure. In contrast, in the Service sector efficiency decreased, which was undone for about one third by a shift towards a less energy-intensive sector structure.     

Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper uses a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes. The empirical data are obtained from each of the OECD member-countries over the period from 1997 to 2006. We show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship, which is 4.13% of a one-period lag in the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The consumer price index (CPI), in so far as it relates to variations in energy, is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher-economic growth, but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth. Therefore, countries characterized by high-economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use, while countries characterized by low-economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy.     

The energy transition of the transition economies: An empirical analysis

The aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia had declined by 35% during 1998–2008. This study reveals a strong evidence of convergence: less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross-country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time. An index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities. Income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence. They dominated the impact of trade, which led to specialization in energy intensive industries.     

Electricity intensity convergence in IEA/OECD countries: Aggregate and sectoral analysis

Convergence in electricity intensity is analyzed among a sample of IEA countries. Sigma-convergence (the narrowing of the distribution) and to a lesser degree gamma-convergence (movement within the distribution) are detected. However, electricity intensity convergence is less dramatic than energy intensity convergence. Convergence within the end-use sectors is more diverse: in terms of the rates, timing, extent, and ultimate modal structure of the distributions. Commercial electricity intensity has more recently converged toward a bell-shape distribution. By contrast, industry electricity intensity is largely converging toward two distinct groups of countries: one with relatively high electricity intensity and another one with relatively low electricity intensity. Different still is related residential electricity consumption per capita where a small group of countries has stopped growing; another group has slowed considerably, while a third group experienced rapid growth.     

Energy efficiency of selected OECD countries: A slacks based model with undesirable outputs

This paper presents an efficiency assessment of selected OECD countries using a Slacks Based Model with undesirable or bad outputs (SBM-Undesirable). In this research, SBM-Undesirable is used first in a two-stage approach to assess the relative efficiency of OECD countries using the most frequent indicators adopted by the literature on energy efficiency. Besides, in the second stage, GLMM–MCMC methods are combined with SBM-Undesirable results as part of an attempt to produce a model for energy performance with effective predictive ability. The results reveal different impacts of contextual variables, such as economic blocks and capital–labor ratio, on energy efficiency levels.