Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin

Climate change is one of the main driving forces that affect both the temporal and spatial variability of water availability. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes has led to a growing water scarcity in major international river basins. The Brahmaputra River Basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world, as it is subject to combined effect of climate change and development pressures. A robust assessment of water scarcity considering both climatic and socio-economic changes is therefore vital for policy makers of the basin. In this study, we analyze future water scarcity of the Brahmaputra Basin in a geographically and temporally detailed manner, incorporating several novel approaches: (i) the application of consistent set of scenarios to estimate future water scarcity; (ii) estimation of water demand in terms of both water withdrawals and consumptive water use; (iii) comparison of water demand and availability on different temporal scales i.e., yearly, seasonal and monthly rather than only annual basis. (iv) assessment of groundwater recharge affected by climate change together with future demands for groundwater abstraction. Although the Brahmaputra Basin is one of the water abundant regions of the world, our analysis illustrates that during dry season water scarcity for the Basin will become more severe in the coming decades, which requires special attention to the decision makers of the authority.     

Environmental impacts of climate change and water development in the Indus delta region

The prospect of global warming raises particular concern in delta regions, many of which are already experiencing severe environmental strain as the result of human activity. This paper considers the potential environmental effects of climatic change and water development in the delta region of Pakistan's Indus River Basin. The impact assessment is conducted using regional output from a river basin simulation model of the Indus Basin. Potential changes in river inflows to the delta, canal diversions and groundwater balance are evaluated under a range of climate change and water development scenarios. The paper also explores possible environmental impacts not included in the modelled evaluation, and discusses policy implications of the assessment results.     

近十年中国陆地水储量变化及其时空分布规律

利用GRACE重力卫星数据分析了我国及十大流域近十年水储量变化趋势、年变化特征、年内分布特征以及时空分布规律,结合TRMM降水数据分析了水储量与降水的关系。研究结果表明:近十年,中国水储量变化趋势具有空间差异性,西南大部、华北平原及黄河中下游、西北准噶尔盆地一带水储量呈减少趋势,东南部、长江大部分区域、长江黄河源头以及塔里木盆地区域水储量呈增加趋势;中国水储量年变化幅度较小,淮河、海河、珠江、松花江流域振幅较大,西北诸河流域振幅最小,全国除黄河、海河和西北诸河流域外,流域水储量年变化与降水年变化均呈显著正相关,东南诸河、珠江、长江流域相关系数均达0.7以上;年内分布上,我国冬春季水储量亏缺,夏秋季水储量盈余,3月-4月西南诸河及长江流域水储量亏缺严重,7月-9月则盈余较大,华北平原5月-7月水储量有亏缺,其他月份则水储量略为盈余。此外,黄河、长江、东南诸河、西南诸河以及珠江流域水储量与降水量年内分布一致性较好,西北诸河流域2月-4月份水储量与降水一致性较差,其他月份一致性较好,而其它流域则一致性较差。     

A Stream Water Availability Model of Upper Indus Basin Based on a Topologic Model and Global Climatic Datasets

Integrated water resources management at river basin scales and evaluation of effects of climate change on regional water resources require quantitative estimates of space-time variability of monthly discharges within a river network. This study demonstrates that such estimates, which can be called stream water availability, for regional river basins with meager or nonexistent gauge data, can be obtained by combining continuity models of hydrological processes, flow routing, and topology of the river basin. The hydrologic processes can be adequately modeled using high quality databases of hydrologic significance. A stream water availability model is presented for Upper Indus Basin (UIB) utilizing the most up-to-date datasets for topography, temperature, precipitation, net radiation, land cover, soil type, and digital atlas. Multiple datasets have been evaluated and the ones with best accuracy and temporal coverage have been selected for the final model. Upper Indus River and its major tributaries are highly significant in regional water resources management and geopolitics. However, UIB is a poorly studied and largely ungauged river basin with an area of 265,598 km² and extremely rugged topography. Several factors, the chief ones being the challenging terrain and the trans-boundary nature of the basin, have contributed to this knowledge gap. Hydro-climatologically it is a complex basin with a significant cryospheric component. The spatial and temporal variation of the principal climatic variables, namely precipitation, net radiation, and temperature has been thoroughly accounted for in the development of a stream water availability model based on a process model coupled with a topologic model and a linear reservoir model of river flow routing. Model calculations indicate that there are essentially two hydrologic regimes in UIB. The regime that is truly significant in contributing stream flows, originates from the UIB cryosphere containing outstanding glaciers and snowfields. The other regime, generated from wet precipitation and melt water from seasonal snow covers is insignificant due to high rates of infiltration and evaporation in the semi-desert environment prevailing at elevations below perennial snow and ice covers. In general, the modeled stream flow characteristics match with the sparse discharge measurements that are available. Flow in the Indus considerably increases at its confluence with Shyok River and further downstream where other tributaries form the north join the main stem. At or near the outlet of the basin stream flow can vary from less than 800 m³ s^− 1 in the winter and spring to nearly 8,000 m³ s^− 1 in the peak summer and can persist to over 1,500 m³ s^− 1 in the autumn. The importance of snow and glacial melt in Indus River discharge is apparent and any global or regional climate change affecting the equilibrium line elevation of the snow fields in the Karakoram will have a profound influence on the water availability in the Indus. Estimates are made for per capita water availability in Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan territories, controlled by India and Pakistan respectively. Geopolitical significance and climate change effects are discussed briefly.     

莱茵河流域水环境管理的经验对长江中下游综合治理的启

以欧洲莱茵河流域近 5 0年的综合治理经验 ,尤其是近 10年相继开展的一系列流域管理行动计划的成果 ,介绍莱茵河从传统的单一流域水管理向以生存质量可持续发展为目标的可持续综合管理转变过程 ,即流域有关国家跨国协调的经验 ,流域内各国为共同治理莱茵河签署的控制化学污染公约、控制氯化物污染公约、防治热污染公约、2 0 0 0年行动计划、洪水管理行动计划等一系列协定 ,由此展望莱茵河流域可持续管理的未来。建议我国在长江三角洲经济发达地区尽快采用严格的欧洲环境管理标准 ,严密监测 ,强化监督 ,依法治理。     

月水量平衡模型在中国不同气候区的应用

概念性水文模型是目前评价环境变化对区域水文水资源影响的有力工具,大尺度水文模拟是气候变化影响评价中的关键技术.利用10个位于我国不同气候区的代表性流域的水文气象资料.验证了月水量平衡模型在不同气候区的应用效果.结果表明:月水量平衡模型能够适用于我国不同气候区的月流量过程模拟,其中,对湿润半湿润地区的模拟精度好于干旱半干旱地区的模拟效果;若流域内降水径流量关系密切,则水文模拟的效果也会较好.人类活动的影响,使得长序列水文模拟误差增大,但不同人类活动类型对流域水文模拟效果的影响是不同的.     

Evaluating the application of a decision support system in identifying adequate wastewater treatment for small communities. A case study: the Fluvia River Basin.

The identification of adequate wastewater treatment for small communities is a complex problem since it demands a combination of data from different sources, such as aspects of the community and landscape, the receiving environment and the available wastewater treatment technologies. The Catalan Water Agency (Agència Catalana de l'Aigua) considered using an EDSS (Environmental Decision Support System) as a tool to help water managers select the most adequate treatment for the urban wastewater of nearly 3,500 small communities in Catalonia (Spain). From that moment, EDSS was applied to all the river basins in Catalonia. In this paper the authors present the results obtained for the 76 small communities located in one of these river basins: the Fluvia River Basin. The characteristics of the community used in the reasoning process of the EDSS, the list of selected wastewater treatment alternatives, the technical environmental justification for the selected treatments and the reasons for discarding, favouring or disadvantaging them are presented. Finally, some results for the Fluvia River Basin are compared with those obtained in other Catalan river basins with different characteristics in order to evaluate which are the significant features in identifying adequate wastewater treatments.     

Assessing the Indus Waters Treaty from a comparative perspective

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty dividing the rivers of the Indus system between India and Pakistan has continued to function through two wars and numerous political tensions. Nevertheless, given mounting pressures on the Indus’ waters due to population growth, climate change and mismanagement, many call for abandonment or renegotiation of the treaty. This article situates these criticisms within the quantitative literature analyzing river treaties to demonstrate that the same critiques are applicable to many treaties. Comparative analysis also reveals that while some of the treaty’s weaknesses can be addressed, important structural obstacles render certain of its deficiencies difficult to correct.     

水贫乏指数的概念及其在中国主要流域的初步应用

介绍了水贫乏指数WPI(Water Poverty Index)的概念及其计算方法,指出WPI是一种可以定量评价国家或地区间相对缺水程度的综合性指标。该指标考虑了资源、工程、管理、经济、环境等多方面因素,具体包括5个要素：即潜在水资源状况、供水设施状况、利用能力、使用效率和环境状况。本文将改进的WPI均衡计算方法应用于我国主要流域,结果表明,辽河、海河、淮河、黄河流域的缺水程度严重,长江和珠江流域的缺水程度相对较低,与我国水资源的客观状况基本相符,基本反映了我国各大流域间的相对缺水现状及相应的水资源管理水平。最后,依据WPI各要素的雷达图,初步分析了导致各流域缺水的主要原因和威胁其水资源安全的主要因素。另外,文中对 WPI方法的适用性和有待改进之处也进行了讨论。     

Water conflict resolution in the Ganga‐Brahmaputra basin

The Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins, covering an area of 165 million ha in China, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, have a number of physical and conceptual interlinkages. A simplified two‐level decomposition‐coordination study of the Indo‐Nepal region of the Ganga basin is used for the analysis of interstate water disputes within India and the conflict over sharing of water between India and Bangladesh.     

Role of Elevation and Aspect in Snow Distribution in Western Himalaya

Snow is a dynamic natural element, the distribution of which is largely controlled by latitude and altitude. In the tropical country like India, snow distribution is mostly controlled by altitude. The present study aims to identify the relationship between snow accumulation with elevation and aspect in rugged terrain in the Himalayan region. The river basins of four tributaries of the River Indus i.e. Satluj, Chenab, Ravi and Beas located in the western Himalaya were considered for study. Snow covered area was estimated for a period of 2 years (01 Jan 2003 to 17 Dec 2004) using MODIS 8 days’ maximum snow cover products. Aspect and classified relief maps were prepared using the USGS DEM. The inter-relationship between aspect, elevation and snow cover area was determined for all the four river basins and comparative analysis has been made. A 2 years average shows that Satluj has the minimum snow covered area 23%, while Chenab has the highest snow covered area i.e. 42%, Ravi and Beas has 33% and 38% respectively. The minimum elevation from where snow covered area appears has been calculated and it has been observed that in case of Satluj, snow appears at a higher elevation (1,369 m) while in Chenab snow appears at an elevation of 834 m, followed by Ravi (1,058 m) and Beas (1,264 m). It was found that aspect has a major impact on snow accumulation in the lower elevations in all the basins as compared to higher elevations. Snow accumulates most in the northwest and northeast aspect. The rate of change in snow cover with elevation is determined for all the river basins and it has been concluded that Satluj has the lowest rate of change of snow cover with elevation (1.3% per 100 m), Chenab 1.8% per 100 m, followed by Ravi 2% per 100 m and Beas (2% per 100 m).     

Stakeholder preferences for water management alternatives in the Red River Basin

Water management in multijurisdictional river basins requires participation and cooperation across stakeholder groups. This research estimates stakeholder preferences for Red River Basin management alternatives. Issues that basin residents and experts considered relevant were identified and preferences for implementing change were assessed. The choice experiments method was used for estimations. An analysis of different stakeholder groups was employed because of an expectation that informed stakeholders and decision-makers would be more engaged with basin management issues, particularly water quality goals and institutional arrangements. However, this analysis demonstrates that the three different samples did not have significantly different preference orderings.     

新战略与规划工程下的黄河流域未来水资源配置格局研究

黄河流域人口聚集,生态、能源、粮食、矿产资源丰富,在中国战略地位显著.然而,黄河天然来水量不足,导致流域水资源供需情势严峻,黄河发展新战略与水利工程规划由此而生.厘清新形势下黄河流域未来水资源配置格局,对大型流域水资源管理和水量精细化调度具有重要意义.基于黄河流域现状水资源配置格局分析成果,解析黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展、流域相关城市群发展战略,探讨其对黄河水资源可能的影响;其次,分析黄河流域未来供需情势,提出全新的水资源配置思路,研究新战略与规划工程条件下的黄河流域未来水资源配置格局.研究成果可为全球其他流域在战略和规划工程影响下的水资源管理提供参考.     

黄河流域气候与水资源演变特点研究

以观测资料和前人研究成果为基础,阐述了气候变化对黄河流域水资源总量、极端水文事件、水生态环境等的影响;指出气候变化已经影响到了黄河流域水资源系统的各个环节,这种影响是否是趋势性的．未来影响程度如何,有待进一步研究。黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响评估研究正在兴起．黄河流域气候变化研究应该着重极端气象水文事件变化对流域水沙调控体系建设、水资源统一管理和调度、黄土高原区和河口区生态环境等的影响及其适应性管理对策研究,以促进流域综合管理。     

松辽流域水资源统一管理的目标和任务

为加强流域水资源的统一管理,优化配置水资源,松辽委积极探索水资源流域管理与行政区域管理相结合的模式,以适应全面建设小康社会和振兴东北地区老工业基地等发展战略.今后一个时期水资源统一管理的目标和任务是:做好流域水资源使用权初始分配工作,努力推进节水型社会建设,继续开展涉水事务一体化管理改革,开展流域与区域相结合的水资源管理机制研究和实践.根据水资源承载能力制定区域发展政策,进一步完善水资源管理法规体系,依靠科技进步和经济杠杆,发挥"松辽管理模式"的作用,进一步加强流域水资源统一管理.     

Vulnerability of Korean water resources to climate change and population growth.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.     

钱塘江流域洪灾防范及应急处置研究

流域洪涝灾害的防范及应急处置能力对确保防洪安全至关重要。通过分析2007年钱塘江流域发生的两个典型案例提出．一是大多数流域防御洪涝灾害的工程措施未能得到全面实施,急需加强和完善;二是众多小流域在基本无防洪工程措施的情况下,必须从强化非工程措施建设方面来开展洪灾防范和应急处置。     

Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin,China

Climate change and human activity are the two major drivers that can alter hydrological cycle processes and influence the characteristics of hydrological drought in river basins. The present study selects the Wei River Basin (WRB) as a case study region in which to assess the impacts of climate change and human activity on hydrological drought based on the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to construct a time-dependent SRI (SRI_var) considering the non-stationarity of runoff series under changing environmental conditions. The results indicate that the SRI_var is more robust and reliable than the traditional SRI. We also determine that different driving factors can influence the hydrological drought evolution on different time scales. On shorter time scales, the effects of human activity on hydrological drought are stronger than those of climate change; on longer time scales, climate change is considered to be the dominant factor. The results presented in this study are beneficial for providing a reference for hydrological drought analysis by considering non-stationarity as well as investigating how hydrological drought responds to climate change and human activity on various time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought forecasting and water resources management over different time scales under non-stationary conditions.     

基于分形几何理论的河湖结构连通性评价方法

基于分形几何理论与方法,针对河湖的结构连通性,利用分形意义上的分形维数和分枝维数概念,给出了一种流域(或区域)河湖结构连通性的评价方法。运用构造的简单河网结构模型,通过计算河湖覆盖度、分形维数和分枝维数来验算和评价了常州市主城区的河湖结构连通性,并与湖西区对比,结果表明,常州市主城区的分形维数和河湖覆盖度均大于湖西区,分枝维数均在1.50左右,常州市主城区的河湖结构连通性水平高于湖西区,两者流域地貌均处于侵蚀发育阶段的壮年期。     

从生态补偿到流域生态共建共享--兼以新安江流域为例的机制探讨

针对流域生态建设和保护中的外部性问题，介绍了流域生态补偿的概念和主要特征。分析了我国在生态补偿工作方面存在的问题，指出建立流域生态共建共享机制是缓解水源涵养区在保护生态和加快发展中面临的双重压力的有效途径，也是实现流域社会经济和生态协调发展的关键。以新安江流域为例，探讨流域生态共建共享机制，提出流域生态共建区和共享区的概念和范围，对建立流域生态共建共享机制的原则和步骤作了探讨。