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冰湖溃决是冰川区突发的严重山地灾害之一。目前,全球气候变暖,冰川普遍退缩,冰湖面积和溃决风险也随之增大。因此,冰湖溃决预警方法的研究对冰川地区防灾减灾有着重要的实际意义。现提供了一种综合考虑气温与降雨条件影响的冰湖溃决预警方法,选择预测日前期正积温逐日增长速度值与预测日前期30d累积降雨量作为气温和降雨的代表性指标,通过对2010年前发生的21例溃决事件统计,结合邻近21个气象台站的日均温和日降雨量资料分析,建立了冰湖溃决的预警警戒线和冰湖溃决预警系统流程。其后,选择2013年7月5日的然则日阿错冰湖溃决案例对建立的冰湖溃决预警系统进行验证,发现预警效果良好。 相似文献
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Wang Xiang Chen Guo Dai Xiaoai Zhao Jingjing Liu Xian Gao Yu Zhang Junmin Chen Yongjun Li Xiaozhen Qin Wenyi Wang Peng 《Water Resources Management》2022,36(7):2343-2358
Water Resources Management - Southwestern Tibet is one of the areas seriously affected by glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). In this study, a systematic GLOF hazard management process chain for... 相似文献
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根据2003-2013年淮河流域五省的降水量、径流系数、人均水资源量、人均GDP、人口密度等相关数据,构建水资源短缺风险评价体系,用熵权法对指标赋值,运用可变模糊模型对淮河流域及各省的水资源短缺风险进行评估和时空差异分析。结果表明:2003-2013年间淮河流域水资源短缺风险值总体较高,且呈缓慢的增长趋势,2004年降水较少,风险值达到最高;十年间河南省风险增加最为明显,而山东省较为稳定,风险增加也最低;在淮河流域五个区域中,河南省的风险程度最高,达到3.52;江苏省、山东省次之;安徽省和湖北省相对较低,达到2.86和2.51。水资源短缺风险二级指标分析发现,危险性最强的是河南省,安徽省最小;水资源短缺易损性最强的是山东省,湖北省最小;水资源短缺暴露性最强的是江苏省,山东省最小;水资源短缺可恢复性最好的是湖北省,河南省最差。同时,所有评价指标中人口密度、人均GDP、降水量对水资源短缺风险的影响较大。 相似文献
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Effects of hydrological changes on cooperation in transnational catchments: the case of the Syr Darya 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Water allocation along the Syr Darya River may be affected by climate change. Here we statistically model cooperation strategies, country profits, and sensitivity of cooperation, showing that the hydrological regime affects transboundary cooperation. Climate change in the twenty-first century may reduce glacial cover, and reducing stream flows, decreasing chances of cooperation and potentially raising conflicts. Comparison with other transboundary catchments in Central Asia indicates moderate-to-high risk of conflicts for the Syr Darya. A template is provided for assessment of the stability of cooperation in the Syr Darya basin, and in catchments similarly dependent on water availability. 相似文献
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西藏地区本身自然地理环境错综复杂,加上人类活动的强烈干扰,导致水资源成为限制区域发展的重要因素,因此,有必要对西藏的水资源脆弱性进行评价。以西藏7个地区的水资源脆弱性评价为例展开研究。从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面筛选出了19个指标,构建了基于"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"概念模型(DPSIR)的水资源脆弱性评价系统,借助于层次分析法和熵值法的综合分析法来确定指标权重,以进行模糊综合评价。评价结果表明:整体而言,西藏水资源比较脆弱;其中,拉萨地区为重度脆弱区,日喀则、那曲、阿里地区为中等脆弱区,昌都与山南地区为比较脆弱地区,林芝地区为不脆弱区。总之,对高海拔地区的水资源脆弱性展开评价研究,可为水资源管理和开发提供理论依据。 相似文献
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溃坝后果评价是计算大坝风险的核心内容之一,溃坝损失后果评估是否准确直接关系到大坝风险度的大小。溃坝后果评价是一件复杂繁琐且系统性工作,需要将生命损失、经济损失、环境影响和社会影响等4个方面的评估结果进行综合。随着数学理论发展,线性加权综合评价、模糊数学综合评价、物元综合评价、灰色关联度综合评价、主成分分析综合评价等成为常见综合评价模型。而每种模型方法各有特点,实际适用性效果各异。就常见的5种综合评价模型,以江西省5座水库溃坝后果评价为例,对5种评价模型计算特性和结果进行了比较分析,获得了每种方法使用技术要点,并得出在对多座水库的溃坝后果严重程度评估排序时,线性加权综合评价模型应用效果最为可靠,其次推荐采用物元综合评价模型的结论。 相似文献
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Alida Alves Berry Gersonius Arlex Sanchez Zoran Vojinovic Zoran Kapelan 《Water Resources Management》2018,32(7):2505-2522
Continuous changes in climate conditions combined with urban population growth pose cities as one of the most vulnerable areas to increasing flood risk. In such an atmosphere of growing uncertainty, a more effective flood risk management is becoming crucial. Nevertheless, decision-making and selection of adequate systems is a difficult task due to complex interactions between natural, social and built environments. The combination of green (or sustainable) and grey (or traditional) options has been proposed as a way forward to ensure resilience in advance of extreme events, and at the same time to obtain co-benefits for society and the environment. The present paper describes a novel method for selection of urban flood measures, based on a multi-criteria analysis that includes flood risk reduction, cost minimization and enhancement of co-benefits. The aim of this method is to assist decision makers in selecting and planning measures, which afterwards can be part of either high level scoping analysis or more complex studies, such as model based assessment. The proposed method is implemented within a tool which operates as a standalone application. Through this tool, the method has been applied in three study cases. The findings obtained indicate promising potential of the method here introduced. 相似文献
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区域旱灾风险评估是连接旱灾风险科学认识与防范实践的核心环节,一直是旱灾风险防御理论和实践研究领域的前沿热点和难点,是支撑区域水利高质量发展亟需解决的关键科技问题。针对实际旱灾风险评估中存在的概念不清晰、方法适用条件有约束、风险定量计算与物理解析相分离等问题,从评价对象符合风险评价目标关系程度的角度,研究指出了旱灾风险综合评价和旱灾风险定量评估是目前旱灾风险评估研究的主要途径,辨析了其中旱灾风险系统、旱灾风险综合评价、旱灾风险定量评估等若干概念问题,探讨了单指标评价函数构建、指标权重确定、综合指标评价函数构建等若干方法问题,以进一步推动旱灾风险评估理论和实践的深入发展。 相似文献
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参考世界自然基金会(WWF)与德国投资与开发有限公司(DEG)提出的水风险评估方法,从短缺风险、污染风险、灾害风险、生态风险以及监管与声誉风险5个方面构建水风险评价体系,以中国31个省(市)为研究对象,采用加权综合评价方法对2000—2013年各省(市)的水风险进行评估,并利用Fuzzy ISODATA聚类模型对水风险评价结果进行分类。在此基础上运用空间自相关分析方法,对中国水风险指数的总体空间区域差异及时间演变趋势进行研究。结果表明:1中国水风险总体处于中低水平,且风险等级呈现出由高向低发展的良好状态。2各省(市)风险大小差异明显,南方地区水风险普遍低于北方地区。3风险子系统中短缺风险与污染风险对各省(市)水风险影响较大,但影响程度随时间减弱;生态风险小幅上升;灾害风险受自然条件影响表现出随机性特征。4水风险空间上存在显著的集聚现象,但空间集聚特征减弱,省际水风险关联度减小。 相似文献
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抗旱减灾研究综述及展望 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
近十余年以来全球范围干旱及其灾害频繁发生,越来越多的学者意识到抗旱减灾研究的重要性,开展了一系列卓有成效的研究。本文主要从干旱监测评估技术、干旱预报技术、旱灾风险评估技术以及旱灾管理战略等4个方面系统阐述了抗旱减灾研究脉络及进展,进而探讨未来发展趋势和主要技术难点,指出干旱监测评估呈现由单指标向多指标综合发展、由单一站点强度分析向强度-时间-范围多个特征变量综合分析发展等趋势,干旱预报呈现由基于统计学方法的干旱预报向基于气陆耦合的旱情预报技术发展的趋势,旱灾风险评估呈现由基于数学方法的评估模型向基于物理机制的评估模型发展、由静态风险评估向静态和动态风险评估相结合发展等趋势。 相似文献
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Shweta Rathi Rajesh Gupta Swapnil Kamble Aabha Sargaonkar 《Water Resources Management》2016,30(8):2671-2685
Water distribution networks are vulnerable to various contamination events that may be accidental or purposeful. Sensors are required for online monitoring of water quality to safeguard human health. Since sensors are costly, their numbers must be limited that makes sensor locations crucial in the water monitoring system. This paper aims at location of sensors in intermittent water distribution system which are more prone to accidental contamination due to contaminants ingress into the pipe lines because of low pressures during non supply hours. Considering deployment of limited number of sensors, the novelty of the paper is to propose a methodology for selection of contamination events with associated risk to be used in design of sensor network. Integrated risk assessment model is used to identify risk prone areas that may lead to possible contamination events. A Genetic Algorithm based methodology is suggested for optimal location of water quality sensors to maximize the detection likelihood of the contamination events within the acceptable time from the risk prone areas to improve network security. A comparison of sensor network design is made by considering contamination events occurring with: (i) equal probability at all the nodes; (ii) equal probability at risk prone nodes; and (iii) probability of occurrences based on quantified risk, to show that identification of risk prone areas and selection of contamination events results in reduction of computational work and more sensible placement of sensors. 相似文献
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无锡地铁盾构始发风险分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过全面深入地分析盾构始发端施工风险影响因素,得到盾构始发风险源,并结合模糊数学与风险分析理论建立盾构始发风险分析模糊综合评判模型与评判准则。然后采用模糊层次分析法确定风险影响因素的权重,建立盾构始发端施工风险分析的非线性模糊评判方法,通过此方法建立了无锡地铁一号线盾构始发风险综合评判指标体系,并且运用非线性模糊综合评判法进行了风险评价。最后运用线性模糊综合评判法进行对比评价,证明了非线性模糊综合评判法的合理性与可行性。更多还原 相似文献
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Abstract There has been a growing consciousness for the need for a framework that is holistic and comprehensive in the assessment of irrigation system performance. This paper presents the results of statistical tests conducted on the analytical framework developed in Part 1 of the paper to examine whether or not it addresses the important issues of system performance. Information collected from two farmer-managed irrigation systems of Nepal was used to test the validity of the framework. The empirical evidence shows that the framework is valid in identifying and fitting conventionally-overlooked livelihood assets and that it demonstrates differences in farm households' access to these assets resulting in varying performance of irrigation systems. 相似文献
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为了对工程项目风险进行客观的评价,以方便投资方与施工企业进行有效的风险管理与控制,进而降低经济损失,针对工程项目风险评价的特点,从社会风险、经济风险、技术风险以及管理风险4个维度构建了工程项目风险评价指标体系,将工程项目风险定性评价转化为定量评价问题。利用集对分析和模糊综合评价的各自优势,采用集对分析确定各评价指标的权重,进而建立了工程项目风险模糊综合评价模型。通过具体实例说明集对分析与模糊综合评价相结合对工程项目风险评价的可行性。结果表明,将集对分析与模糊综合评价相结合对工程项目风险进行评价是完全可行的。 相似文献
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基于模糊综合评价的改进层次分析法在滑坡危险评价中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在野外调查的基础上,针对金沙江乌东德库区工程地质条件,选取坡度、地层岩性、地质构造、岸坡结构等10个与滑坡发生相关要素作为库岸滑坡灾害危险性评价因子,基于模糊综合评判法模型的改进层次分析方法,对乌东德库区库岸滑坡灾害进行危险性评价。研究结果表明:乌东德库区可划分为高危险区、中危险区、低危险区和极低危险区4个区域;所占库区面积比例分别为6.64%,5.77%,60.20%,27.39%,为库岸滑坡的防灾减灾管理和治理提供了支撑。 相似文献