Modeling and simulation of the market fluctuations by the finite range contact systems

In this paper, we model a new random stock price model for the stock markets based on the finite range contact process, which is a model for epidemic spreading that mimics the interplay of local infections and recovery of individuals, it is a member of a class of stochastic processes known as interacting particle systems. Then, we analyze the statistical behaviors of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA), Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), the standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) and the simulative data derived from the finite range contact model by comparison. And six individual Chinese stocks from large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap categories are discussed. Furthermore, we investigate the long range correlations of the returns for these indices and the corresponding simulative data by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis. At last, the positive part of the probability distributions of the logarithmic returns for the actual data and the simulative data are studied by the q-Gaussian dynamic systems. The main objective of this work is to discuss the impact on the returns with the different range financial models.     

Forecasting stock returns based on information transmission across global markets using support vector machines

This paper provides evidence that forecasts based on global stock returns transmission yield better returns in day trading, for both developed and emerging stock markets. The study investigates the performance of global stock market price transmission information in forecasting stock prices using support vector regression for six global markets—USA (Dow Jones, S&P500), UK (FTSE-100), India (NSE), Singapore (SGX), Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and China (Shanghai Stock Exchange) over the period 1999–2011. The empirical analysis shows that models with other global market price information outperform forecast models based merely on auto-regressive past lags and technical indicators. Shanghai stock index movement was predicted best by Hang Seng Index opening price (57.69), Hang Seng Index by previous day’s S&P500 closing price (54.34), FTSE by previous day’s S&P500 closing price (57.94), Straits Times Index by previous day’s Dow Jones closing price (54.44), Nifty by HSI opening price (60), S&P500 by STI closing price (55.31) and DJIA by HSI opening price (55.22), and Nifty was found to be the most predictable stock index. Trading using global cues-based forecast model generates greater returns than other models in all the markets. The study provides evidence that stock markets across the globe are integrated and the information on price transmission across markets, including emerging markets, can induce better returns in day trading.     

Volatility model based on multi-stock index for TAIEX forecasting

Conventional time series models have been applied to handle many forecasting problems, such as financial, economic and weather forecasting. In stock markets, correct stock predictions will bring a huge profit for stock investors. However, conventional time series models produce forecasts based on some strict statistical assumptions about data distributions, and, therefore, they are not very proper to forecast financial datasets. This paper proposes a new forecasting model using adaptive learning techniques to predict TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock index) with multi-stock indexes (NASDAQ stock index and Dow Jones stock index). In verification, this paper employs seven year period of TAIEX stock index, from 1997 to 2003, as experimental datasets, and the root mean square error (RMSE) as evaluation criterion. The performance comparison results show that the proposed model outperforms the listing methods in forecasting Taiwan stock market. Besides, from statistical test results, it is showed that the volatility of Dow Jones and the NASDAQ affect TAIEX significantly.     

Evolving Least Squares Support Vector Machines for Stock Market Trend Mining

In this paper, an evolving least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) learning paradigm with a mixed kernel is proposed to explore stock market trends. In the proposed learning paradigm, a genetic algorithm (GA), one of the most popular evolutionary algorithms (EAs), is first used to select input features for LSSVM learning, i.e., evolution of input features. Then, another GA is used for parameters optimization of LSSVM, i.e., evolution of algorithmic parameters. Finally, the evolving LSSVM learning paradigm with best feature subset, optimal parameters, and a mixed kernel is used to predict stock market movement direction in terms of historical data series. For illustration and evaluation purposes, three important stock indices, S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index, and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Index, are used as testing targets. Experimental results obtained reveal that the proposed evolving LSSVM can produce some forecasting models that are easier to be interpreted by using a small number of predictive features and are more efficient than other parameter optimization methods. Furthermore, the produced forecasting model can significantly outperform other forecasting models listed in this paper in terms of the hit ratio. These findings imply that the proposed evolving LSSVM learning paradigm can be used as a promising approach to stock market tendency exploration.     

Stock market prediction with multiple classifiers

Stock market prediction is attractive and challenging. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stock prices should follow a random walk pattern and thus should not be predictable with more than about 50 percent accuracy. In this paper, we investigated the predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index to show that not all periods are equally random. We used the Hurst exponent to select a period with great predictability. Parameters for generating training patterns were determined heuristically by auto-mutual information and false nearest neighbor methods. Some inductive machine-learning classifiers—artificial neural network, decision tree, and k-nearest neighbor were then trained with these generated patterns. Through appropriate collaboration of these models, we achieved prediction accuracy up to 65 percent.     

使用Microsoft Excel进行数据的灰关联分析

使用Microsoft Excel函数和数据分析工具软件进行灰关联分析,并应用于世界主要指数与原油期货走势的关联程度分析。使用Excel计算灰关联度。结果显示各指数与原油期货走势的关联度,依次为道指>标普>富时>上证指数>纳指>美指>深证成指。表明使用Excel进行灰关联分析是可行的,并且易于普及和推广;道琼斯指数对原油期货的走势具有更强的关联。     

A GA-weighted ANFIS model based on multiple stock market volatility causality for TAIEX forecasting

Stock market forecasting is important and interesting, because the successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits. The economy of Taiwan relies on international trade deeply, and the fluctuations of international stock markets will impact Taiwan stock market. For this reason, it is a practical way to use the fluctuations of other stock markets as forecasting factors for forecasting the Taiwan stock market. In this paper, the proposed model uses the fluctuations of other national stock markets as forecasting factors and employs a genetic algorithm (GA) to refine the weights of rules joining in an ANFIS model to forecast the Taiwan stock index. To evaluate the forecasting performances, the proposed model is compared with four different models: Chen's model, Yu's model, Huarng's model, and the ANFIS model. The results indicate that the proposed model is superior to the listing methods in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE).     

A hybrid ANFIS based on n-period moving average model to forecast TAIEX stock

Linear model is a general forecasting model and moving average technical index (MATI) is one of useful forecasting methods to predict the future stock prices in stock markets. Therefore, individual investors, stock fund managers, and financial analysts attempt to predict price fluctuation in stock markets by either linear model or MATI. From literatures, three major drawbacks are found in many existing forecasting models. First, forecasting rules mined from some AI algorithms, such as neural networks, could be very difficult to understand. Second, statistic assumptions about variables are required for time series to generate forecasting models, which are not easily understandable by stock investors. Third, stock market investors usually make short-term decisions based on recent price fluctuations, i.e., the last one or two periods, but most time series models use only the last period of stock price. In order to overcome these drawbacks, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting model using linear model and MATI to predict stock price trends with the following four steps: (1) test the lag period of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and calculate the last n-period moving average; (2) use subtractive clustering to partition technical indicator values into linguistic values based on data discretization method objectively; (3) employ fuzzy inference system (FIS) to build linguistic rules from the linguistic technical indicator dataset, and optimize the FIS parameters by adaptive network; and (4) refine the proposed model by adaptive expectation models. The proposed model is then verified by root mean squared error (RMSE), and a ten-year period of TAIEX is selected as experiment datasets. The results show that the proposed model is superior to the other forecasting models, namely Chen's model and Yu's model in terms of RMSE.     

Bayesian testing for non-linearity in volatility modeling

Neural networks provide a tool for describing non-linearity in volatility processes of financial data and help to answer the question “how much” non-linearity is present in the data. Non-linearity is studied under three different specifications of the conditional distribution: Gaussian, Student-t and mixture of Gaussians. To rank the volatility models, a Bayesian framework is adopted to perform a Bayesian model selection within the different classes of models. In the empirical analysis, the return series of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 indices over a period of 16 years are studied. The results show different behavior across the three markets. In general, if a statistical model accounts for non-normality and explains most of the fat tails in the conditional distribution, then there is less need for complex non-linear specifications.     

COVID-19 Pandemic Data Predict the Stock Market

Unlike the 2007–2008 market crash, which was caused by a banking failure and led to an economic recession, the 1918 influenza pandemic triggered a worldwide financial depression. Pandemics usually affect the global economy, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Many stock markets have fallen over 40%, and companies are shutting down, ending contracts, and issuing voluntary and involuntary leaves for thousands of employees. These economic effects have led to an increase in unemployment rates, crime, and instability. Studying pandemics’ economic effects, especially on the stock market, has not been urgent or feasible until recently. However, with advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and the inter-connectivity that social media provides, such research has become possible. In this paper, we propose a COVID-19-based stock market prediction system (C19-SM2) that utilizes social media. Our AI system enables economists to study how COVID-19 pandemic data influence social media and, hence, the stock market. C19-SM2 gathers COVID-19 infection and death cases reported by the authorities and social media data from a geographic area and extracts the sentiments and events that occur in that area. The information is then fed to the support vector machine (SVM) and random forest and random tree classifiers along with current stock market values. Then, the system produces a projection of the stock market’s movement during the next day. We tested the system with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI). Our system achieved a stock market prediction accuracy of 99.71%, substantially higher than the 89.93% accuracy reported in the related literature; the inclusion of COVID-19 data improved accuracy by 9.78%.     

Smooth Transition Quantile Capital Asset Pricing Models with Heteroscedasticity

Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has become a fundamental tool in finance for assessing the cost of capital, risk management, portfolio diversification and other financial assets. It is generally believed that the market risks of the assets, often denoted by a beta coefficient, should change over time. In this paper, we model timevarying market betas in CAPM by a smooth transition regime switching CAPM with heteroscedasticity, which provides flexible nonlinear representation of market betas as well as flexible asymmetry and clustering in volatility. We also employ the quantile regression to investigate the nonlinear behavior in the market betas and volatility under various market conditions represented by different quantile levels. Parameter estimation is done by a Bayesian approach. Finally, we analyze some Dow Jones Industrial stocks to demonstrate our proposed models. The model selection method shows that the proposed smooth transition quantile CAPM?CGARCH model is strongly preferred over a sharp threshold transition and a symmetric CAPM?CGARCH model.     

基于自回归移动平均反转的在线投资组合选择

针对现有均值反转类策略未充分考虑噪声数据、单周期假设和数据的非平稳性等问题，提出了一种基于多周期的高效的在线自回归移动平均反转（OLAR）算法。首先，利用自回归移动平均算法得到了股价预测模型，并经过合理的假设将其转化为自回归模型；然后，结合损失函数和正则项构造出了目标函数，并利用损失函数的二阶信息得到了参数的闭式解；接着，利用在线被动攻击（PA）算法得到了投资组合的闭式更新。理论分析和实验仿真结果表明，与鲁棒中位数反转（RMR）相比，OLAR在NYSE（O）、NYSE（N）、道琼斯工业指数（DJIA）和MSCI数据集上的累积收益分别提高了455.6%，221.5%，11.2%和50.3%；同时，统计检验结果表明，OLAR的表现并不是由随机因素造成的。此外，与RMR和在线滑动平均反转（OLMAR）等算法相比，OLAR获得了最大的年化收益率、夏普比率和Calmar比率；最后，OLAR的运行时间与RMR和OLMAR基本相同，因此也适合大规模的实时应用。     

On Asymmetric Market Model with Heteroskedasticity and Quantile Regression

The capital asset pricing model is widely used in financial risk management due to its simplicity and utility in a variety of situations. Many of the constructs of this market model are widely used in investment, but the simple assumptions of a constant beta coefficient and variance in the original market model are not convincing from the empirical viewpoint. In this paper we propose a general asymmetric market model embedding both the leverage effect of market news and the previous return to express the instability of beta and the error with heteroskedasticity to capture the time-varying conditional variance. Because extreme values occur quite frequently in financial markets, the quantile regression is employed to explore the different behaviors in the market beta and lagged autoregressive effect for different quantile levels. We analyze fifteen stocks, which are heavily traded in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, to demonstrate the empirical performance of our methodology. The evidence indicates that each market beta and impact of negative news vary with different quantile levels, capturing different states of market conditions.     

AN ADAPTIVE EXPECTATION GENETIC ALGORITHM BASED ON ANFIS AND MULTINATIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY CAUSALITY FOR TAIEX FORECASTING

The stock market is a highly complex and dynamic system, and forecasting stock is complicated and difficult. Successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits; therefore, stock market forecasting is important and of great interest. The economy of Taiwan relies on international trade deeply and the fluctuations of international stock markets impact Taiwan's stock market to certain degree. It is practical to use the fluctuations of other stock markets as forecasting factors for forecasting on the Taiwan stock market. Further, stock market investors usually make short-term decisions based on recent price fluctuations, but most time series models use only the last period of stock price in forecasting. In this article, the proposed model uses the fluctuations of other national stock markets as forecasting factors and employs an expectation equation method whose parameters are optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA) joined with an adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to forecast the Taiwan stock index. To evaluate the forecasting performance, the proposed model is compared with Chen's model and Yu's model. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model is superior to the listing methods (Chen's model and Yu's model) in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE).     

A feature weighted support vector machine and K-nearest neighbor algorithm for stock market indices prediction

This study investigates stock market indices prediction that is an interesting and important research in the areas of investment and applications, as it can get more profits and returns at lower risk rate with effective exchange strategies. To realize accurate prediction, various methods have been tried, among which the machine learning methods have drawn attention and been developed. In this paper, we propose a basic hybridized framework of the feature weighted support vector machine as well as feature weighted K-nearest neighbor to effectively predict stock market indices. We first establish a detailed theory of feature weighted SVM for the data classification assigning different weights for different features with respect to the classification importance. Then, to get the weights, we estimate the importance of each feature by computing the information gain. Lastly, we use feature weighted K-nearest neighbor to predict future stock market indices by computing k weighted nearest neighbors from the historical dataset. Experiment results on two well known Chinese stock market indices like Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange indices are finally presented to test the performance of our established model. With our proposed model, it can achieve a better prediction capability to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index in the short, medium and long term respectively. The proposed algorithm can also be adapted to other stock market indices prediction.     

A hybrid ANFIS model based on empirical mode decomposition for stock time series forecasting

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling, and stock index forecasting is an important issue in time series forecasting. Accurate stock price forecasting is a challenging task in predicting financial time series. Time series methods have been applied successfully to forecasting models in many domains, including the stock market. Unfortunately, there are 3 major drawbacks of using time series methods for the stock market: (1) some models can not be applied to datasets that do not follow statistical assumptions; (2) most time series models that use stock data with a significant amount of noise involutedly (caused by changes in market conditions and environments) have worse forecasting performance; and (3) the rules that are mined from artificial neural networks (ANNs) are not easily understandable.To address these problems and improve the forecasting performance of time series models, this paper proposes a hybrid time series adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model that is centered around empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to forecast stock prices in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and Hang Seng Stock Index (HSI). To measure its forecasting performance, the proposed model is compared with Chen's model, Yu's model, the autoregressive (AR) model, the ANFIS model, and the support vector regression (SVR) model. The results show that our model is superior to the other models, based on root mean squared error (RMSE) values.     

MISMIS – A comprehensive decision support system for stock market investment

Nowadays, stock market is becoming a popular investment platform for both institutional and individual investors. The current financial information systems serve to provide latest information. However, they lack sophisticated analytical tools. This paper proposes a new architecture for financial information systems. The developed prototype is entitled as the Multi-level and Interactive Stock Market Investment System (MISMIS). It is specially designed for investors to build their financial models to forecast stock price and index. The performance of the financial models can be evaluated on a virtual trading platform. There are other features in MISMIS that are tailor-made to handle financial data; these include synchronized time frame, time series prediction techniques, preprocessing and transformation functions, multi-level modeling and interactive user interface. To illustrate the capability of MISMIS, we have evaluated strategies of trading the future options of Hang Seng Index (HSI). We find that historical HSI, Dow Jones Index, property price index, retailing sales figure, prime lending rate, and consumer price index in Hong Kong are essential factors affecting the performance of the trading of HSI’s future option. Also there are some feedbacks from the in-depth interviews of six financial consultant upon how they perceived the prototype MISMIS.     

Cascading logistic regression onto gradient boosted decision trees for forecasting and trading stock indices

Forecasting the direction of the daily changes of stock indices is an important yet difficult task for market participants. Advances on data mining and machine learning make it possible to develop more accurate predictions to assist investment decision making. This paper attempts to develop a learning architecture LR2GBDT for forecasting and trading stock indices, mainly by cascading the logistic regression (LR) model onto the gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT) model. Without any assumption on the underlying data generating process, raw price data and twelve technical indicators are employed for extracting the information contained in the stock indices. The proposed architecture is evaluated by comparing the experimental results with the LR, GBDT, SVM (support vector machine), NN (neural network) and TPOT (tree-based pipeline optimization tool) models on three stock indices data of two different stock markets, which are an emerging market (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index) and a mature stock market (Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index). Given the same test conditions, the cascaded model not only outperforms the other models, but also shows statistically and economically significant improvements for exploiting simple trading strategies, even when transaction cost is taken into account.     

Discovering public sentiment in social media for predicting stock movement of publicly listed companies

The popularity of many social media sites has prompted both academic and practical research on the possibility of mining social media data for the analysis of public sentiment. Studies have suggested that public emotions shown through Twitter could be well correlated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, it remains unclear how public sentiment, as reflected on social media, can be used to predict stock price movement of a particular publicly-listed company. In this study, we attempt to fill this research void by proposing a technique, called SMeDA-SA, to mine Twitter data for sentiment analysis and then predict the stock movement of specific listed companies. For the purpose of experimentation, we collected 200 million tweets that mentioned one or more of 30 companies that were listed in NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange. SMeDA-SA performs its task by first extracting ambiguous textual messages from these tweets to create a list of words that reflects public sentiment. SMeDA-SA then made use of a data mining algorithm to expand the word list by adding emotional phrases so as to better classify sentiments in the tweets. With SMeDA-SA, we discover that the stock movement of many companies can be predicted rather accurately with an average accuracy over 70%. This paper describes how SMeDA-SA can be used to mine social media date for sentiments. It also presents the key implications of our study.     

SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence

This paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of Dow Jones by testing the existence of long memory through a new class of semiparametric ARFIMA models with HYGARCH errors (SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH); this class includes nonparametric deterministic trend, stochastic trend, short-range and long-range dependence and long memory heteroscedastic errors. We study the daily returns of the Dow Jones from 1896 to 2006. We estimate several models and we find that the coefficients of the SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH model, including long memory coefficients for the equations of the mean and the conditional variance, are highly significant. The forecasting results show that the informational shocks have permanent effects on volatility and the SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH model has better performance over some other models for long and/or short horizons. The predictions from this model are also better than the predictions of the random walk model; accordingly, the weak efficiency assumption of financial markets seems violated for Dow Jones returns studied over a long period.