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本文主要研究了具有三个年龄阶段的离散SCIRS模型的动力学性态.首先,利用再生矩阵的方法定义了模型的基本再生数R0,证明了当R01时,模型存在唯一的无病平衡点并且是全局渐近稳定的,当R01时,除了无病平衡点,模型还存在唯一的地方病平衡点.其次,利用法定传染病报告的流脑数据,把模型应用到我国流脑的流行传播中.针对模型中很多参数的不确定性,对基本再生数中的参数进行了敏感性分析.最后,在模型的基础上考虑流脑发病的季节因素对模型加以改进,预测分析了我国流脑的发病情况,数值模拟的结果显示季节因素对疾病进展率的影响程度大于对疾病传染率的影响,为控制流脑在我国的流行传播提供建议. 相似文献
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:研究一类具有一般形式非线性饱和传染率染病年龄结构SIS流行病传播数学模型动力学性态,得到疾病绝灭和持续生存的阈值条件——基本再生数。当基本再生数小于或等于1时,仅存在无病平衡点,且在其小于1的情况下,无病平衡点全局渐遗稳定,疾病将逐渐消除;当基本再生数大于1时,存在不稳定的无病平衡点和唯一的局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点,疾病将持续存在。已有的两类模型可视为本模型的特例,其相关结论可作为本文的推论。 相似文献
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基于重新感染情形,建立了一个具有接种、潜伏和染病年龄结构的流行病模型,目的在于讨论疫苗接种年龄、潜伏年龄和感染年龄对模型全局动力学的影响,得到了模型的全局动力学由基本再生数决定。首先,利用偏微分方程沿特征线积分理论,给出了模型解的存在唯一性、连续有界性和渐近光滑性;其次,利用微分方程解的理论,得到模型的平衡点和基本再生数。再次,结合引入的基本再生数和构造的Lyapunov函数,应用LaSalle不变性原理得到结论:若基本再生数小于1,则无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;若基本再生数大于1,则无病平衡点不稳定。最后,数值模拟验证了所讨论模型的解收敛于无病平衡点。 相似文献
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A method is proposed for estimating the parameters of a mixture of exponential and Weibull distributions for which the accuracy of preliminary estimates obtained by graphical analysis is refined in accordance with the criterion of maximum likelihood. The efficiency of the proposed method is supported by the results of statistical modeling. 相似文献
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An approximate analytical expression is derived for the velocity of the front of the wave of change of boiling modes on a
rod and on a plate. The impact of the Thomson effect and of the heater orientation in the gravity field is included. Adequate
agreement is demonstrated between the derived relations and experimental data. 相似文献
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Liebert A Wabnitz H Grosenick D Möller M Macdonald R Rinneberg H 《Applied optics》2003,42(28):5785-5792
A novel method for the determination of the optical properties of tissue from time-domain measurements is presented. The data analysis is based on the evaluation of the first moment and the second centralized moment, i.e., the mean time of flight and the variance of the measured distribution of times of flight (DTOF) of photons injected by short (picosecond) laser pulses. Analytical expressions are derived for calculation of absorption and of reduced scattering coefficients from these moments by application of diffusion theory for infinite and semi-infinite homogeneous media. The proposed method was tested on experimental data obtained with phantoms, and results for absorption and reduced scattering coefficients obtained by the proposed method are compared with those obtained by fitting of the same data with analytical solutions of the diffusion equation. Furthermore, the accuracy of the moment analysis was investigated for a range of integration limits of the DTOF. The moment analysis may serve as a comparatively fast method for evaluating optical properties with sufficient accuracy and can be used, e.g., for on-line monitoring of optical properties of biological tissue. 相似文献
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水三相点是开尔文热力学温度的唯一基准点,也是ITS-90国际温标重要的定义固定点。因此,水三相点不确定度分析对整个温标的建立、温度量值传递起着至关重要的作用。近3年来,中国计量科学研究院研制出一系列高质量的水三相点容器,加强了水三相点的研究,为不确定度的分析提供了更为可靠的实验依据。同时,不确定度的分析也是客观评价新研制容器性能的一个重要指标。因此,根据实验结果对新研制容器所复现的水三相点进行了不确定度评定。评定结果表明,其扩展不确定度为0.16mK(k=2.69,P=0.99)。 相似文献
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Conventional methods for summation of direct measurement errors are considered. Conditions under which these methods provide consistent results are stated. It is proposed to utilize for characteristic of the total error, its interval estimator or the half-sum of the value obtained by adding up its arithmetic and geometric random errors.Translated from Izmeritel'naya Tekhnika, No. 4, pp. 10–12, April, 1995. 相似文献