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水库调度多阶段决策问题最优策略与多个两阶段决策问题最优策略组合,两者之间的一致性问题是两阶段调度模型应用于实际水库调度问题的瓶颈。为此,本文建立了并联供水水库系统调度规则优选的模拟-优化模型,该模型将多库两阶段调度模型作为子模型进行模拟,优化多库两阶段调度模型的时序参数,采用多种群混合进化的粒子群算法PMSE-PSO进行参数优选。辽宁省碧流河水库与英那河水库联合调度的4种调度规则组合方案的对比成果表明,新的供水调度规则具有一定合理性与有效性,结果优于限制供水规则和参数式规则组合的并联水库系统联合调度规则。 相似文献
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采用当前先进的洪水分类预报方法,在流域长系列资料中将非标准洪水提出来,根据其成因不同对其采用人工神经网络分类,利用遗传算法进行参数优选,然后根据洪水特征,选择不同的模型参数和规则进行洪水调度,从而提高水库预报调度精度。 相似文献
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在进行水库群长期优化运行的研究中,讨论了一种适合于寻求水资源系统优化运行决策规则调度模型。该模型包括双状态动态规划(BSDP)和混合回归的疏系数模型。该调度模型充分反映了水库群最优运行的规律,且大大节省了计算时间的内存量。模拟运行结果表明,该模型是可行的。 相似文献
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本文研究了用确定性优化技术建立水库调度规则的方法。首先提出了用逐步优化算法(POA)求解水库优化调度模型,得出水库最优放水、库水位等序列,进而对该序列进行逐步多元回归,获得水库的线性和非线性调度规则,最后通过实例验证,得到满意成果。 相似文献
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在电力系统推行节能调度的背景下,通过分析独立发电商和电网公司的运营动机,提出在日前竞价市场通过厂网合作进行节能调度的策略。基于日前市场不同市场主体的收益模型,对市场竞价过程进行求解,并通过对竞价过程的图形化表示,分析独立发电商竞价策略对竞价模型和调度结果的影响。根据节能调度规则,推导厂网合作方式和合作条件,并得出厂网合作的最优策略和相应收益分配方案。算例验证了所述策略的可行性。 相似文献
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为了充分发挥黑河龙首水电站的水能利用率,对龙首水电站的短期优化调度进行了研究。通过对5个典型年短期优化调度模型求解结果进行回归分析,获得各月的短期调度规则,对调度规则的验证结果表明相对误差较小,所得到的短期调度规则可以投入实际应用。 相似文献
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A decision support model (DSM) has been developed using the artificial neural networks (ANN) for optimal operation of a reservoir
in south India. The DSM developed is a combination of a rule based expert system and ANN models, which are trained using the
results from deterministic single reservoir optimisation algorithm. The developed DSM is also flexible to use multiple linear
regression equations instead of trained neural network models for different time periods. A new approach is tried with the
DSM based on trained neural network models, which use real time data of previous time periods for deciding operating policies.
The developed DSM based on ANN outperforms the regression based approach. 相似文献
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供水水库优化模拟风险调度模式的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对水库调度过程中的风险问题,引入了供水水库调度的优化模拟风险管理模式.首先建立了供水水库群的优化调度模型,然后对度量风险的可靠性、脆弱性、回弹性、事故周期等指标作了论述.在此基础上,模拟水库调度过程中存在的风险,并通过模拟与优化的反馈机制,建立了供水水库优化模拟风险调度的总体模式. 相似文献
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在水库调度中存在着大量的非线性关系 ,采用传统的线性关系的处理方法 ,往往难以取得满意的效果。应用人工神经网络的非线性决策方法 ,利用 BP算法建立调度模型用以处理水库的长期调度 ,结果表明 ,符合实际情况 ,且具有明显的优越性 相似文献
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根据丰满水库的流域特性,尝试使用BP神经网络模型进行洪水预报。针对随机生成网络权重的盲目性,采用遗传算法进行初始权重优化。通过历史洪水检验,证实此模型在丰满水库的洪水预报中有很高的预报精度和应用价值。 相似文献
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黄河上游梯级水库防凌优化调度方案研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
针对黄河上游凌汛期龙羊峡水库出库流量调度问题,在分析上游梯级水库防凌调度原则及调度运行方式的基础上,考虑青海电网电量平衡的需求,建立了黄河上游梯级水库防凌优化调度模型,并提出了改进的微粒群算法用于求解该模型。结果表明:凌汛期在保证龙羊峡水库出库总水量不变的情况下,通过调整龙羊峡水库在各时段的出库水量,既满足了青海电网电量平衡的要求,优化了青海电网电量结构,同时也增加了刘家峡水库防凌库容;通过优化调度,增加了凌汛期梯级水电站的可发电量,提高了梯级电站效益。 相似文献
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Pan Liu Shenglian Guo Lihua Xiong Wei Li Honggang Zhang 《Water Resources Management》2006,20(3):337-357
The dynamic programming neural-network simplex (DPNS) model, which is aimed at making some improvements to the dynamic programming
neural-network (DPN) model, is proposed and used to derive refill operating rules in reservoir planning and management. The
DPNS model consists of three stages. First, the training data set (reservoir optimal sequences of releases) is searched by
using the dynamic programming (DP) model to solve the deterministic refill operation problem. Second, with the training data
set obtained, the artificial neural network (ANN) model representing the operating rules is trained through back-propagation
(BP) algorithm. These two stages construct the standard DPN model. The third stage of DPNS is proposed to refine the operating
rules through simulation-based optimization. By choosing maximum the hydropower generation as objective function, a nonlinear
programming technique, Simplex method, is used to refine the final output of the DPN model. Both the DPNS and DPN models are
used to derive operating rules for the real time refill operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) for the year of 2007.
It is shown that the DPNS model can improve not only the probability of refill but also the mean hydropower generation when
compare with that of the DPN model. It's recommended that the objective function of ANN approach for deriving refill operating
rules should maximize the yield or minimize the loss, which can be computed from reservoir simulation during the refill period,
rather than to fit the optimal data set as well as possible. And the derivation of optimal or near-optimal operating rules
can be carried out effectively and efficiently using the proposed DPNS model. 相似文献
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水库在多年运行中积累的大量数据资料,是科学调度水库的有用信息,数据库技术是科学管理这些信息有效工具,本文介绍了丹江口水利枢纽水库调度历史数据库系统的设计目标,运行环境,功能,结构和操作等,其设计目标是方便迅速地为水库高度工作提供原始数据或统计数据;系统采用长城微机,使用速度快,兼容性强的FOXBASE数据库管理系统软件,通过NOVELL网络系统供网内用户调用;系统功能有六项,即查询,统计、打印、续 相似文献
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Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
This article presents a methodology for planning a modelfor the operation of a drinking water reservoir. The hedging ruledistributes deficits over a longer period of time by rationingthe supply of water and it makes the system sustainablewith a marginal reduction in supply. A methodology isdeveloped and demonstrated through a case study withthe Chennai city (India) water supply system which isa water shortage system requiring an efficient use ofwater. It is aimed at improving the reservoiroperation performance through the simulation–optimisationprocedure with the application of the hedging rule, whichis a more appropriate rule for reservoir operationunder deficit conditions. To speed up the optimisationprocess, a neural network model is developed for thesimulation of the reservoir system operation and is usedinstead of a conventional simulation model. Thecombined neural network simulation–optimisation modelis used for screening the operation policies. 相似文献