A new belief rule base knowledge representation scheme and inference methodology using the evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination

In this paper, we extend the original belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach by i) introducing generalised belief rules as knowledge representation scheme, and ii) using the evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination in the rule-base inference methodology instead of the evidential reasoning approach. The result is a new rule-base inference methodology which is able to handle a combination of various types of uncertainty.Generalised belief rules are an extension of traditional rules where each consequent of a generalised belief rule is a belief distribution defined on the power set of propositions, or possible outcomes, that are assumed to be collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive. This novel extension allows any combination of certain, uncertain, interval, partial or incomplete judgements to be represented as rule-based knowledge. It is shown that traditional IF-THEN rules, probabilistic IF-THEN rules, and interval rules are all special cases of the new generalised belief rules.The rule-base inference methodology has been updated to enable inference within generalised belief rule bases. The evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination is used for the aggregation of belief distributions of rule consequents.     

基于证据推理的确定因子规则库推理方法

不确定性推理方法是人工智能领域的一个主要研究内容,If-then规则是人工智能领域最常见的知识表示方法. 文章针对实际问题往往具有不确定性的特点,提出基于证据推理的确定因子规则库推理方法.首先在If-then规则的基础上给出确定因子结构和确定因子规则库知识表示方法,该方法可以有效利用各种类型的不确定性信息,充分考虑了前提、结论以及规则本身的多种不确定性. 然后,提出了基于证据推理的确定因子规则库推理方法. 该方法通过将已知事实与规则前提进行匹配,推断结论并得到已知事实条件下的前提确定因子;进一步,根据证据推理算法得到结论的确定因子. 文章最后,通过基于证据推理的确定因子规则库推理方法在UCI数据集分类问题的应用算例,说明该方法的可行性和高效性.     

Optimization Models for Training Belief-Rule-Based Systems

A belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) has been developed recently, where a new belief rule representation scheme is proposed to extend traditional IF-THEN rules. The belief rule expression matrix in RIMER provides a compact framework for representing expert knowledge. However, it is difficult to accurately determine the parameters of a belief rule base (BRB) entirely subjectively, particularly, for a large-scale BRB with hundreds or even thousands of rules. In addition, a change in rule weight or attribute weight may lead to changes in the performance of a BRB. As such, there is a need to develop a supporting mechanism that can be used to train, in a locally optimal way, a BRB that is initially built using expert knowledge. In this paper, several new optimization models for locally training a BRB are developed. The new models are either single- or multiple-objective nonlinear optimization problems. The main feature of these new models is that only partial input and output information is required, which can be either incomplete or vague, either numerical or judgmental, or mixed. The models can be used to fine tune a BRB whose internal structure is initially decided by experts' domain-specific knowledge or common sense judgments. As such, a wide range of knowledge representation schemes can be handled, thereby facilitating the construction of various types of BRB systems. Conclusions drawn from such a trained BRB with partially built-in expert knowledge can simulate real situations in a meaningful, consistent, and locally optimal way. A numerical study for a hierarchical rule base is examined to demonstrate how the new models can be implemented as well as their potential applications.     

基于规则推理网络的分类模型

为了缓解神经网络的“黑盒子”机制引起的算法可解释性低的问题,基于使用证据推理算法的置信规则库推理方法(以下简称RIMER)提出了一个规则推理网络模型.该模型通过RIMER中的置信规则和推理机制提高网络的可解释性.首先证明了基于证据推理的推理函数是可偏导的,保证了算法的可行性;然后,给出了规则推理网络的网络框架和学习算法,利用RIMER中的推理过程作为规则推理网络的前馈过程,以保证网络的可解释性;使用梯度下降法调整规则库中的参数以建立更合理的置信规则库,为了降低学习复杂度,提出了“伪梯度”的概念;最后,通过分类对比实验,分析了所提算法在精确度和可解释性上的优势.实验结果表明,当训练数据集规模较小时,规则推理网络的表现良好,当训练数据规模扩大时,规则推理网络也能达到令人满意的结果.     

Applying a belief rule-base inference methodology to a guideline-based clinical decision support system

Abstract: A critical issue in the clinical decision support system (CDSS) research area is how to represent and reason with both uncertain medical domain knowledge and clinical symptoms to arrive at accurate conclusions. Although a number of methods and tools have been developed in the past two decades for modelling clinical guidelines, few of those modelling methods have capabilities of handling the uncertainties that exist in almost every stage of a clinical decision-making process. This paper describes how to apply a recently developed generic rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) to model clinical guidelines and the clinical inference process in a CDSS. In RIMER, a rule base is designed with belief degrees embedded in all possible consequents of a rule. Such a rule base is capable of capturing vagueness, incompleteness and non-linear causal relationships, while traditional IF–THEN rules can be represented as a special case. Inference in such a rule base is implemented using the evidential reasoning approach which has the capability of handling different types and degrees of uncertainty in both medical domain knowledge and clinical symptoms. A case study demonstrates that employing RIMER in developing a guideline-based CDSS is a valid novel approach.     

Inference analysis and adaptive training for belief rule based systems

Belief rule base (BRB) systems are an extension of traditional IF-THEN rule based systems and capable of capturing complicated nonlinear causal relationships between antecedent attributes and consequents. In a BRB system, various types of information with uncertainties can be represented using belief structures, and a belief rule is designed with belief degrees embedded in its possible consequents. For a set of inputs to antecedent attributes, inference in BRB is implemented using the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. In this paper, the inference mechanism of the ER algorithm is analyzed first and its patterns of monotonic inference and nonlinear approximation are revealed. For a practical BRB system, it is difficult to determine its parameters accurately by using only experts’ subjective knowledge. Moreover, the appropriate adjustment of the parameters of a BRB system using available historical data can lead to significant improvement on its prediction performance. In this paper, a training data selection scheme and an adaptive training method are developed for updating BRB parameters. Finally, numerical studies on a multi-modal function and a practical pipeline leak detection problem are conducted to illustrate the functionality of BRB systems and validate the performance of the adaptive training technique.     

Iterative learning belief rule-base inference methodology using evidential reasoning for delayed coking unit

The belief rule-base inference methodology using evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach has been proved to be an effective extension of traditional rule-based expert systems and a powerful tool for representing more complicated causal relationships using different types of information with uncertainties. With a predetermined structure of the initial belief rule-base (BRB), the RIMER approach requires the assignment of some system parameters including rule weights, attribute weights, and belief degrees using experts’ knowledge. Although some updating algorithms were proposed to solve this problem, it is still difficult to find an optimal compact BRB. In this paper, a novel updating algorithm is proposed based on iterative learning strategy for delayed coking unit (DCU), which contains both continuous and discrete characteristics. Daily DCU operations under different conditions are modeled by a BRB, which is then updated using iterative learning methodology, based on a novel statistical utility for every belief rule. Compared with the other learning algorithms, our methodology can lead to a more optimal compact final BRB. With the help of this expert system, a feedforward compensation strategy is introduced to eliminate the disturbance caused by the drum-switching operations. The advantages of this approach are demonstrated on the UniSim? Operations Suite platform through the developed DCU operation expert system modeled and optimized from a real oil refinery.     

NEW METHODOLOGY TO FUZZY REASONING FOR RULE-BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS

Abstract

Much knowledge residing in the knowledge base of an expert system involves fuzzy concepts. A powerful expert system must have the capability of fuzzy reasoning. This paper presents a new methodology for dealing with fuzzy reasoning based on the matching function S. The single-input, single-output (SISO) fuzzy reasoning scheme and the multi-input, single-output (MISO) fuzzy reasoning schemes are discussed in detail. The proposed fuzzy reasoning methodology is conceptually clearer than the compositional rule of inference approach. It can provide an useful way for rule-based systems to deal with fuzzy reasoning.     

数据驱动的置信规则库构建与推理方法

针对Liu等(LIU J, MARTINEZ L, CALZADA A, et al. A novel belief rule base representation, generation and its inference methodology. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2013, 53: 129-141)提出的扩展置信规则库(BRB)推理精度不够高的问题,提出了一种改进的规则库构建与推理方法。在Liu等提出的规则库构建方法的基础上,给出了一种新的生成规则前件与计算规则权重的方法;同时为了避免大量不必要的规则被激活,引入80/20法则改进规则激活策略,并最终形成完整的置信规则库构建与推理方法。通过输油管道检漏的实例对所提方法的准确性和效率进行对比分析。实验结果表明,所提方法能够在保证低耗时的同时,将系统平均绝对误差(MAE)降低到0.17342,具有较高的效率和精度。     

基于本体的应急救援知识库构建及其应用

针对专家系统在应急救援领域应用中存在的知识表示及推理等问题,采用基于本体的知识表示方法与基于Jena的规则推理引擎,参考简单知识工程方法论与Jena规则语法建立一个高速公路应急救援本体与推理规则,实现本体知识库的推理。将该知识库应用于高速公路应急救援系统中,结果表明其具备解决实际问题的能力;有利于领域知识的共享与重用;促进了专家系统在高速公路应急救援领域的发展。     

Online updating belief rule based system for pipeline leak detection under expert intervention

A belief rule base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) has been developed recently, where a new belief rule base (BRB) is proposed to extend traditional IF-THEN rules and can capture more complicated causal relationships using different types of information with uncertainties, but these models are trained off-line and it is very expensive to train and re-train them. As such, recursive algorithms have been developed to update the BRB systems online and their calculation speed is very high, which is very important, particularly for the systems that have a high level of real-time requirement. The optimization models and recursive algorithms have been used for pipeline leak detection. However, because the proposed algorithms are both locally optimal and there may exist some noise in the real engineering systems, the trained or updated BRB may violate some certain running patterns that the pipeline leak should follow. These patterns can be determined by human experts according to some basic physical principles and the historical information. Therefore, this paper describes under expert intervention, how the recursive algorithm update the BRB system so that the updated BRB cannot only be used for pipeline leak detection but also satisfy the given patterns. Pipeline operations under different conditions are modeled by a BRB using expert knowledge, which is then updated and fine tuned using the proposed recursive algorithm and pipeline operating data, and validated by testing data. All training and testing data are collected from a real pipeline. The study demonstrates that under expert intervention, the BRB expert system is flexible, can be automatically tuned to represent complicated expert systems, and may be applied widely in engineering. It is also demonstrated that compared with other methods such as fuzzy neural networks (FNNs), the RIMER has a special characteristic of allowing direct intervention of human experts in deciding the internal structure and the parameters of a BRB expert system.     

实体异构性下证据链融合推理的多属性群决策

针对多属性群决策中可解释性证据融合推理的实体异构性问题,给出了一个实体异构性下证据链融合推理的多属性群决策方法.基于证据推理理论,引入证据链关联的概念,从多数据表提供的数据矩阵中获取可区分的近邻证据集,推导了各数据表的相似度矩阵,并构建半正定矩阵的二次优化模型,共享群决策专家的经验知识.使用Dempster正交规则,论证了异构实体之间可解释性推理中可信度融合的合理性,并使用证据融合规则集成各个数据表的近邻证据中获得的可信度,验证了调和多源异构数据中不一致信息的有效性.通过具有实体异构性的心脏病多决策数据诊断实例说明了方法的可行性与合理性.     

A framework for knowledge-based control

A framework for knowledge-based control is proposed. The approach presented is suitable for control systems and control support of systems which have no adequate mathematical models. Thus, the control is performed by using knowledge engineering methods rather than pure mathematical control methods. The domain expert's knowledge is assumed to be encoded in the form of simple statements (facts) and special reasoning rules, which form the core of the Knowledge-Based Control System (KBCS). The control system reads the input information, and on the basis of the current state of its knowledge base, together with the application of supplied inference rules updates the knowledge base and performs the required control actions. Moreover, some inference control knowledge, reflecting the expert's way of reasoning, is to be incorporated in the KBCS. The main idea of the system consists of selecting an appropriate set of actions to be executed, with regard to the current state specification and the control goal given. An abstract mathematical model of the control process is formulated and a suitable language for knowledge representation is proposed. The reasoning scheme is discussed and the structure of the control system is outlined. A representative application example is provided.     

A framework for application of neuro-case-rule base hybridization in medical diagnosis

Every approach to handling automation has its unique limitations. In the symbolic (rule base) approach, the brittleness of rules leads to the ineffectiveness of handling noisy data, but it derives its strengths in heuristic search. In the same vein, a case base reasoning paradigm is bedeviled with retrieval and adaptation problems. Neural Networks (NN) methodology suffers from intolerance of incremental insertion of new knowledge and limited explanation capability, but triumphs over other methods when it comes to adaptation using its generalization characteristics. Based on all these, a tight coupling of case base, rule base and neural networks methodologies is proposed for medical diagnosis. The case base provides the ‘desired’ outputs, which constitute an input to the neural networks. The results obtained from the trained neural networks assisted in formulating diagnostic rules, which form the rule base. Through the rule base, an inference engine that represents the hybrid is built. Data collected from three hospitals in Nigeria on hepatitis patients were used to test the functionality of the proposed system. The results obtained from the hybrid were compared with that obtained from the Multilayer Peceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) training using NeuroSolutions 5.0 and found to covary strongly. The hybrid exhibits an explanation characteristic, a feature not found in neural networks.     

基于置信规则库推理的二择众仓分类方法

针对线性组合方式所构建的置信规则库存在常常无法准确发挥前件属性权重的效能,且随着评价等级个数的增加,新激活权重公式往往会对结果造成不利影响的不足,本文在现有置信规则库推理分类算法的基础上,提出二择众仓决策法,以此改进置信规则库决策系统。首先仅设置两个规则的后件评价等级,对一个决策问题仅做出二择判定,即回答是与否;其次,设置多个置信规则库同时处理若干个子问题;最后通过众仓决策方式融合多个子问题的结果,进而解决最终的分类问题。实验结果表明,改进后的置信规则库推理分类方法可行有效。     

数据缺失的扩展置信规则库推理方法

数据驱动的扩展置信规则库专家系统能够处理含有定量数据或定性知识的不确定性问题.该方法已被广泛地研究和应用,但仍缺乏在不完整数据问题上的研究.鉴于此,针对不完整数据集上的问题,提出一种新的扩展置信规则库专家系统推理方法.首先提出基于析取范式的扩展规则结构,并通过实验讨论了在新的规则结构下,置信规则前提属性参考值个数对推理...     

General purpose inference engine for canonical graph models

The design and implementation of a General Purpose Inference Engine for canonical graph models that is both flexible and efficient is addressed. Conventional inference techniques (e.g. forward chaining, backward chaining and mixed strategies) are described, and new modes of flexibility through the provision of inexact matching between data and assertions/rules are explained. In GPIE, scanning/searching of the rules in the rule base is restricted to a minimum during execution, but at the expense of compilation of the rule set prior to execution. The generality of the rule set is transparent to the inference engine, thereby permitting reasoning at various levels. This research demonstrates that a graph-based inference engine offering flexible control structures and inxact matching can complement intermediate notations, such as conceptual graphs, offering the expressive power of a rich knowledge representation formalism. The availability of an extendible graph processor for building appropriate canonical graph models presents the exciting prospect of a general purpose reasoning engine.     

专家系统中基于粗集的知识获取、更新与推理

知识获取、知识更新和不确定性推理是设计专家系统的重要方面。根据粗集理论，提出了一种专家系统的结构模型，该系统在规则获取的基础上，利用系统运行的实例增量式地更新知识库中的规则及其参数，以改善系统的性能，利用知识库中的规则及数量参数进行不确定性推理，得出结论的可信度。     

基于置信规则库的海基系统性能退化机理分析与预测

海基系统性能退化机理分析和预测对于提高海基系统的生存能力具有重要意义,但需要考虑不确定条件下的多种类型信息,传统方法在处理海基系统的不确定性时效果欠佳,而置信规则库(BRB)作为证据推理方法中的知识库又无法同时处理参数精度优化和组合爆炸问题.对此,采用BRB参数与结构联合优化方法,建立双层优化的海基系统置信规则库最优决策结构,以AIC(Akaike information criterion)为外层模型优化目标,MSE(Mean square error)为内层模型优化目标,实现同时优化的目的.对比模型输出和实际输出,并采用支持向量机(SVM)进行实验,结果表明,采用具有最优决策结构的海基系统置信规则库建模不仅可以降低模型中规则的数量,也可提高建模精度,验证了所提出方法的有效性.     

一种基于区间规则的条件证据网络推理决策方法

针对证据网络推理方法无法对区间规则进行表示和推理的问题, 提出一种基于区间规则的条件证据网络推理决策方法. 该方法针对模糊规则的条件概率或信度为不确定区间的情况, 可同时表达不确定性和模糊性; 并将区间不确定规则转化为区间条件信度函数作为证据网络的结点参数, 通过条件推理和证据融合得到条件证据网络中各结点幂集空间中焦元的随机分布作为决策依据. 最后, 通过空中目标态势评估实例, 验证了所提出方法的有效性.