Renewable-based generation expansion under a green certificate market

Quota obligations represent a policy instrument to reduce carbon emissions and incentivize renewable-based electricity generation. This support scheme places an obligation on generating companies to comply with a quota of renewable-based production. Eligible renewable units receive one certificate for each MWh, while fossil-based generating companies must buy certificates to comply with the requirement. This paper proposes a family of generation expansion models that include both an electricity and a certificate market to investigate to which degree a given quota obligation and non-compliance penalty incentivize the capacity expansion of renewable-based generation. Two market players are considered, namely, a renewable-based generating company with null operating cost and a weather-dependent capacity factor; and a fossil-based generating company with a fixed capacity and known fuel cost function. First, a complementarity model that determines the optimal capacity of the renewable-based producer considering a perfectly competitive market is proposed. Next, market players are assumed to compete in quantities à la Cournot to maximize their profits, being the generation expansion model formulated as a mathematical problem with equilibrium constraints. The relevance of properly setting the non-compliance penalty for each level of competition to comply with a given quota obligation is quantified and discussed using an stylized example.     

The development of a green certificate market

Liberalizing the electricity industry and attempting to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases are the two dominant trends in European energy policy. The last-mentioned issue might require the contribution from renewable energy technologies, but at present most renewables cannot compete on their own with conventional technologies. Thus, it can be expected that if renewables must compete solely on market conditions alone this will slow down or even halt the development of new renewable capacity. One model in which additional payments to renewable technologies are generated is based on the development of a separate green market. In Holland a voluntary green certificate market has existed since the beginning of 1998. In Denmark a comprehensive restructuring of the legislation for the electric power industry has just been completed, including the framework for developing a separate green market for renewable electricity production. The main objectives of introducing this type of electricity market in Denmark is to secure the development of renewable energy technologies (including contributions to greenhouse gas reductions), while at the same time releasing the Government from the (by now) quite heavy burden of subsidising renewable technologies. Finally, a green market will make it possible for these renewable technologies to be partly economically compensated for the environmental benefits, which they generate compared to conventional power production. With the recent Danish legislation as starting point this paper analyzes possible ways to set up a green certificate market, treating as well some of the consequences produced when the market is actually funtioning. The analysis is applicable for all renewable technologies, but special attention is given to wind power.     

Green certificate markets,the risk of over-investment,and the role of long-term contracts

Several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes. The case for a renewable electricity standard (RES) in tandem with a tradeable green certificate (TGC) market has been largely based on efficiency considerations. Case study evidence is inconclusive, in part due to the short track record, but is not generally favorable. Here we reconsider the efficiency case, both static and dynamic, in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects. We find that when exclusively high fixed-cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool, the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets. When low fixed-cost technologies compete alongside high fixed-cost technologies in the certificate market, we show that it is likely that long-term contracts will disappear, and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed-cost technology. We consider evidence from three well-developed certificate schemes—in Britain, Sweden, and Texas—and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here.     

Cost effects of international trade in meeting EU renewable electricity targets

The European market for renewable electricity received a major stimulus from the adoption of the Directive on the Promotion of Renewable Electricity. The Directive specifies the indicative targets for electricity supply from renewable energy sources (RES-E) to be reached in European Union (EU) Member States in the year 2010. It also requires Member States to certify the origin of their renewable electricity production. This article presents a first EU-wide quantitative evaluation of the effects of meeting the targets, using an EU-wide system for tradable green certificates (TGC). We calculate the equilibrium price of green certificates and identify which countries are likely to export or import certificates. Cost advantages of participating in such an EU-wide trading scheme are determined for each of the Member States. Moreover, we identify which choice of technologies results in meeting targets at least costs. Results are obtained from a model that quantifies the effects of achieving the RES-E targets in the EU with and without trade. The article provides a brief insight in this model as well as the methodology that was used to specify cost potential curves for renewable electricity in each of the 15 EU Member States. Model calculations show that within the EU-wide TGC system, the total production costs of the last option needed to satisfy the overall EU RES-E target equals 9.2 eurocent/kWh. Assuming that the production price of electricity on the European power market would equal 3 eurocent/kWh in the year 2010, the indicative green certificate price equals 6.2 eurocent/kWh. We conclude that implementation of an EU-wide TGC system is a cost-efficient way of stimulating renewable electricity supply.     

Modeling of a green certificate market

The paper considers one of the economic mechanisms, stimulating the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES)—a green certificate market. A mathematical model was developed to describe a supply and demand balance in the electricity and green certificate markets simultaneously. The sellers of certificates are RES owners, who obtain certificates for each unit of electricity produced, and the buyers are consumers, who are obliged by law to buy a certain share of this electricity.Equilibrium structures of the power system including RES with stochastic operation conditions are calculated. The prices of electricity and certificates, as well as the total economic effect of the system are determined taking into account external costs (environmental damages). The paper shows that a mechanism of green certificates is not an ideal means for minimizing the impact of energy on the environment: the economic effect turns out to be smaller than the maximum possible one. However, this deviation is relatively small, therefore the green certificate market allows the external effects to be partially taken into account. Such a market creates incentives for investors, electricity producers and consumers to make power sources mix, modes of electricity production and consumption closer to the optimum ones in terms of the economy as a whole.     

Contribution of green energy sources to electrical power production of Turkey: A review

Green power products may be seen as a means of fostering renewable energy sources (RES) because they create and channel consumer demand for environmentally sound power generation. Turkey also has a large potential for renewable energy exploitation in a number of areas. Clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the world. The renewable energy contribution in the total primary energy production is insignificant. The alternative and renewable energy systems have been neglected so far in Turkey but must be included in the new energy programs. In this context, Renewable Energy Law was enacted in 2005 in order to encourage renewable-based generation in competitive market conditions. Supporting mechanisms such as feed-in tariffs and purchase obligation are defined in the law, in conformity with the EU legislation and practice. These mechanisms are envisaged to facilitate the development of power plants based on RES.     

Tax incentives to promote green electricity: An overview of EU-27 countries

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the main tax incentives used in the EU-27 member states (MSs) to promote green electricity. Sixteen MSs use tax incentives to promote green electricity simultaneously with other promotion measures, especially quota obligations and price regulation. However, not all available technologies are promoted. For example, six MSs (Germany, Romania, Slovak Republic, Denmark, Sweden and Poland) have included an exemption on the payments of excise duties for electricity when the electricity is generated from renewable energy sources (RES). This tax incentive is the most widely used. Limited tax incentives in personal income tax are available in Belgium, France, Czech Republic and Luxembourg. In corporate tax, tax incentives consist mainly of a deduction in the taxable profit (Belgium, Greece, Czech Republic and Spain). Lower tax rates in VAT are applied in three MSs, France, Italy and Portugal. Only Spain and Italy use effective tax incentives in property tax. As a great diversity of tax incentives has been used to promote green electricity, this adds another difficulty to the EU objective of providing a renewable energy policy framework, but also it offers a useful set of case studies which can be used to inform EU policy development.     

Renewable electricity policies in The Netherlands

Many analysts agree that the support system for renewable electricity (RE) in the Netherlands has been opaque, confusing and lacking long-term security, due to the numerous instruments and to the several changes in the details of the policies. However, most analysts fail to notice that these factors per se are hardly responsible for the uncertainty observed in the Dutch market. This paper surveys the policies introduced in the last decade or so and discusses their effectiveness in facilitating the diffusion of RE. Although the government brought about a remarkable increase in demand for RE, the creation of domestic supply has lagged behind. This relatively slack expansion can be ascribed to the uncertainty in the Dutch framework, caused by the lack of a clear relation between policies stimulating demand and supply for RE. This also hindered the development of national industry and delayed the debate on the removal of planning and administrative bottlenecks.     

Renewable energy and the need for local energy markets

In Denmark, a technological change towards cleaner energy technologies has been developed and implemented since around 1975. This development has had two phases: The first from 1975 until around 1996, when wind power was a niche production that supplied only 3.5% of the electricity consumption and was brought close to cost competitiveness, and the present second phase, in which wind power supplies an increasing share (in 2004 18.6%) of electricity consumption along with combined heat and power plants, which supply around 50% of consumption. Denmark succeeded in overcoming the first phase, and a large green energy technology cluster was established. During the second phase, new difficulties and challenges have arisen, both with regard to local public acceptance and the need for integrating an increasing percentage of fluctuating energy sources into the energy system. In this Phase 2, a new offensive green energy policy should be introduced in order to secure both public and political acceptance. Local markets should be established in order to secure the technical integration of a large proportion of wind power and other fluctuating renewable energy sources into the energy system.     

Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind

This article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs). These markets have been used in Europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind. Similar markets have been proposed in the United States of America (USA) where the certificates are called Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). The certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt-hour of renewable electricity generation. The companies may sell the certificates in a market, and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity. Proponents argue that this market-based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the USA, these mandates are set by the states and are known as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS).     

The effect of financial constraints,technological progress and long-term contracts on tradable green certificates

Tradable green certificates (TGCs) have recently become a diffuse instrument to support renewable electricity in OECD countries. Although it is perhaps too early to draw a conclusive judgement on the effectiveness of this instrument in increasing renewable capacity and decreasing the price of certificates, one view in the literature maintains that long-term contracts are of particular importance for TGCs to be effective. This paper contributes to this debate by analysing how financial constraints and technological progress can induce investors to hold pessimistic expectations of their ability to sell green certificates and still make a profit. Clearly, these expectations will prevent investors from building new capacity to fulfil the quota comprised in TGCs and will keep the price of certificates traded in the market high. As this kind of expectation is not influenced by most design features of TGCs, one can conclude that long-term contracts are particularly important in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these instruments. Some attention should therefore be paid to the features of the TGCs, which induce obliged parties to offer long-term contracts to renewable generators.     

Integrated energy systems and local energy markets

Significant benefits are connected with an increase in the flexibility of the Danish energy system. On the one hand, it is possible to benefit from trading electricity with neighbouring countries, and on the other, Denmark will be able to make better use of wind power and other types of renewable energy in the future. This paper presents the analysis of different ways of increasing flexibility in the Danish energy system by the use of local regulation mechanisms. This strategy is compared with the opposite extreme, i.e. trying to solve all balancing problems via electricity trade on the international market. The conclusion is that it is feasible for the Danish society to include the CHP plants in the balancing of fluctuating wind power. There are major advantages in equipping small CHP plants as well as the large CHP plants with heat pumps. By doing so, it will be possible to increase the share of wind power from the present 20 to 40% without causing significant problems of imbalance between electricity consumption and production. Investment in increased flexibility is in itself profitable. Furthermore, the feasibility of wind power is improved.     

Implications of carbon cap-and-trade for US voluntary renewable energy markets

Many consumers today are purchasing renewable energy in large part for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits that they provide. Emerging carbon regulation in the US has the potential to affect existing markets for renewable energy. Carbon cap-and-trade programs are now under development in the Northeast under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and in early stages of development in the West and Midwest. There is increasing discussion about carbon regulation at the national level as well. While renewable energy will likely benefit from carbon cap-and-trade programs because compliance with the cap will increase the costs of fossil fuel generation, cap-and-trade programs can also impact the ability of renewable energy generation to affect overall CO₂ emissions levels and obtain value for those emissions benefits. This paper summarizes key issues for renewable energy markets that are emerging with carbon regulation, such as the implications for emissions benefits claims and voluntary market demand and the use of renewable energy certificates (RECs) in multiple markets. It also explores policy options under consideration for designing carbon policies to enable carbon markets and renewable energy markets to work together.     

The renewable energy targets of the Maghreb countries: Impact on electricity supply and conventional power markets

Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, the three countries of the North African Maghreb region, are showing increased efforts to integrate renewable electricity into their power markets. Like many other countries, they have pronounced renewable energy targets, defining future shares of “green” electricity in their national generation mixes. The individual national targets are relatively varied, reflecting the different availability of renewable resources in each country, but also the different political ambitions for renewable electricity in the Maghreb states. Open questions remain regarding the targets’ economic impact on the power markets. Our article addresses this issue by applying a linear electricity market optimization model to the North African countries. Assuming a competitive, regional electricity market in the Maghreb, the model minimizes dispatch and investment costs and simulates the impact of the renewable energy targets on the conventional generation system until 2025. Special emphasis is put on investment decisions and overall system costs.     

The EU Renewables Directive—What is the fuss about trading?

Considerable argument about trading in green electricity certificates (GECs) preceded the publication of the proposed EU Renewables Directive in early 2008. The proposed Directive set a binding target of 20 per cent of EU energy to be derived from renewable energy by 2020 broken down into targets for each member state. Those arguing for trade in green certificates, called certificates of guaranteed origin (GO), included major electricity companies. However, the idea of mandatory trading was opposed by the main renewable energy industry lobby groups. The proposed Directive limited trading in accordance with the demands of the renewables industry pressure groups. Analysis suggests that if member states were forced to trade to achieve a mandatory target of 20 per cent target, then GEC prices would rise to high levels because the demand for tradeable certificates would be much higher than their supply. Trading is unlikely to improve the prospects for meeting the targets. A system of nationally based ‘feed-in tariff’ systems would not face the problems of uncertain certificate prices faced by compulsory trading in GECs.     

Feed-in tariff and tradable green certificate in oligopoly

Feed-in tariff (FIT) and tradable green certificate (TGC) schemes are studied in a formal model and numerical example using the UK data. We find that if the markets were perfectly competitive, then feed-in tariff and the certificate price would be the same. However, when the markets are imperfect, they are generally different. While both the tariff and certificate price fluctuate around the difference between the costs of green and black energy, the tariff deviates more from the cost difference than the certificate price. The supplies of both black and green energy under FIT are higher than TGC, obviously as a result of subsidies. A troubling outcome is that the total energy supply increases under FIT as the renewables quota increases, which can negate other measures to mitigate climate changes such as demand management. Finally, using the data from the UK market, we find that social welfare under TGC is consistently higher than FIT for a wide range of values of the parameters.     

Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies.     

Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.