The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Criminological predictors of recidivism in a sexual offender population.

In the present study, the utility of criminological variables as predictors of recidivism was investigated among 342 male sexual offenders. A multivariate regression analysis indicated that arrests for sexual offenses against adults were associated with arrests for sexual re-offenses against adults and with nonsexual violent re-arrests. Sexual-re-offense specialization was observed among sexual offenders with adult and with child victims. Although many of the relations were statistically significant, the magnitude of these relations does not warrant the sole use of criminological variables for decisions regarding individual sexual offenders. (4 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Long-term recidivism of child molesters.

Examined the long-term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall, 42% of the total sample were reconvicted for sexual crimes, violent crimes, or both, with 10% of the total sample reconvicted 10–31 yrs after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than were offenders who selected only boys, with offenders against girls showing a rate intermediate between these 2 groups. Other factors associated with increased recidivism were (1) never being married and (2) previous sexual offenses. None of the mental health and personality tests used in this study (e.g., the Eysenck Personality Inventory and the MMPI) was significantly associated with recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters.

This study examined the predictive efficacy of 10 rationally derived, archivally coded variables for assessing reoffense risk among extrafamilial child molesters. Follow-up data on 111 child molesters who were discharged from the Massachusetts Treatment Center between 1960 and 1984 were used. Degree of sexual preoccupation with children, paraphilias, and number of prior sexual offenses predicted sexual recidivism. Juvenile and adult antisocial behavior, paraphilias, and low amount of contact with children predicted nonsexual victim-involved and violent recidivism. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves in all three analyses indicated discrimination that was substantially better than chance, ranging from .73 to .79. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparing indicators of sexual sadism as predictors of recidivism among adult male sexual offenders.

Objective: In this longitudinal study, the predictive validity of a psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism was compared with three behavioral indicators of sadism: index sexual offense violence, sexual intrusiveness, and phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to depictions of sexual or nonsexual violence. Method: Five hundred and eighty six adult male sexual offenders were assessed between 1982 and 1992, and these offenders were followed for up to 20-years postrelease via official criminal records. Assessment information included the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis, offense characteristics, phallometric assessment results, and an actuarial risk measure (the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Results: Predictive validity was demonstrated in univariate analyses for the behavioral indicators of sexual sadism (area under the curve [AUCs] from .58 to .62) but not psychiatric diagnosis (AUC = .54). Cox regression analyses revealed that phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to violence was still significantly associated with violent (including sexual) recidivism after actuarially estimated risk to reoffend was controlled. A psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism, in contrast, was unrelated to recidivism. Conclusions: The results support the use of more behaviorally operationalized indicators of sexual sadism, especially phallometric assessment of sexual arousal, and suggest the DSM criteria for sexual sadism require further work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Evaluating Community Sex Offender Treatment Programs: A 12-Year Follow-Up of 724 Offenders.

Although some studies suggest positive effects of treatment for sexual offenders, most studies have been hampered by the unknown influence of selective attrition (e.g., volunteers and drop-outs). In the 1980s, the Correctional Service of Canada began to require weekly community treatment sessions for all sex offenders released in the Pacific Region. This policy change provided a unique opportunity for comparing an unselected cohort of treated sex offenders (n = 403) to an untreated cohort (n = 321) released in earlier years. After an average 12-year follow-up period, no differences were observed in the rates of sexual (21.1% vs 21.8%), violent (42.9% vs. 44.5%) or general (any) recidivism (56.6% vs 60.4%) for treated and untreated groups, respectively. The outcome remained comparable after controlling for length of follow- up, year of release, age, and seven static risk factors coded from official criminal history records. Retrospective ratings of the treatment quality also showed no relationship to observed recidivism rates. The static risk factors coded in the current study accounted for considerable variance in recidivism and could easily be used to improve statistical controls in future evaluations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Psychopathy in instrumental and reactive violent offenders.

Can violent offenders who commit acts of instrumental aggression for goal-oriented purposes such as robbery be distinguished from those who commit acts of reactive (or hostile) aggression in response to provocation? Because violent offenders often have a history of both instrumental and reactive aggression, this study distinguished between offenders with a history of at least 1 instrumental violent offense and offenders with a history of reactive violent offenses. Two studies tested the hypothesis that instrumental offenders would score higher than reactive offenders and nonviolent offenders on R. D. Hare's (1991) Psychopathy Checklist. The first study sample consisted of 106 violent and nonviolent offenders recruited from a medium-security correctional facility. The second study sample consisted of 50 violent offenders referred for pretrial forensic evaluation. In both samples, instrumental offenders could be reliably distinguished from reactive offenders on the basis of violent crime behavior and level of psychopathy. Group differences could not be attributed to participant age, race, length of incarceration, or extent of prior criminal record. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism.

Objective: The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. Method: A meta-analysis of the offender treatment literature was conducted to identify predictors of offender treatment attrition and examine its relationship to recidivism. The review covered 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders. Sex offender and domestic violence programs were also examined separately given their large independent literatures. Results: The overall attrition rate was 27.1% across all programs (k = 96), 27.6% from sex offender programs (k = 34), and 37.8% from domestic violence programs (k = 35). Rates increased when preprogram attrition was considered. Significant predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., age, rw = ?.10), criminal history and personality variables (e.g., prior offenses, rw = .14; antisocial personality, rw = .14), psychological concerns (e.g., intelligence, rw = ?.14), risk assessment measures (e.g., Statistical Information on Recidivism scale, rw =.18), and treatment-related attitudes and behaviors (e.g., motivation, rw = ?.13). Results indicated that treatment noncompleters were higher risk offenders and attrition from all programs significantly predicted several recidivism outcomes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. Conclusions: The clients who stand to benefit the most from treatment (i.e., high-risk, high-needs) are the least likely to complete it. Offender treatment attrition can be managed and clients can be retained through an awareness of, and attention to, key predictors of attrition and adherence to responsivity considerations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An examination of the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act as applied to juveniles: Evaluating the ability to predict sexual recidivism.

The recently enacted Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act will expand and standardize the registration of adolescent sex offenders. To evaluate the effectiveness of this and similar legislation, the authors assessed 91 juvenile males who had been adjudicated for a sexual felony offense and 174 juvenile males who had no history of sexual offending with several risk measures. On admission to treatment, all participants were assessed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; A. E. Forth, D. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003). The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II; R. A. Prentky & S. Righthand, 2003), 3 state-developed risk protocols (from Wisconsin, Texas, and New Jersey), and the tier designation embedded in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act of 2006 (SORNA) were coded from the sex offender participants' records. Participants were followed for an average of 71.6 months (SD = 18.1 months) to determine charges for general, violent, and sexual offenses. Results showed inconsistencies in risk designations between the J-SOAP-II, SORNA tier, and state risk measures, and none, except for the PCL:YV, significantly predicted new general, violent, or sexual offense charges. Policy and legal implications concerning the assessment of adolescent sex offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Prediction of violent versus nonviolent recidivism from prior violent and nonviolent criminality.

Analyzed frequencies of prior violent and nonviolent criminal convictions among 198 adult male felony offenders (mean age 27 yrs) in relation to probation outcome defined as success, nonviolent failure, or violent failure. The probation follow-up was conducted after 32 mo. Only the results for prior nonviolent offenses were significant, and although nonviolent failures on probation were nearly 4 times more common than were violent failures, the nonviolent predictor set was equally sensitive to the 2 types of recidivism. The association between prior nonviolent offenses and probation outcome was attenuated by the influence of age. Persistent nonviolent criminality usually reflects a generalized propensity for social deviance and is therefore of some predictive value with heterogeneous groups of offenders. In contrast, because violence is often due to transitory psychological states that emerge in response to atypical circumstances, it is a relatively poor indicator of the likelihood of future similar behavior. (20 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Field validity of the STATIC-99 and MnSOST-R among sex offenders evaluated for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

Despite their widespread use in forensic and correctional practice, surprisingly little research investigates how well actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) for sexual offenders work within the contexts where they are routinely applied. We examined the predictive validity (M = 4.77 years follow-up) of the two most widely used ARAIs for sexual offenders, the STATIC-99 and Minnesota Sex Offender Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), as administered in routine practice among 1,928 offenders screened for possible civil commitment as sexually violent predators. Effect sizes for both ARAIs were lower than in most published research and meta-analytic reviews, although the STATIC-99 was a more consistent predictor of recidivism than the MnSOST-R. Recidivism rates for the STATIC-99 were much closer to those expected based on the 2009 norms than the 2003 norms. Offender characteristics (e.g., age at release, prior arrests, release type) were often as or more effective than ARAIs for predicting recidivism. This study, apparently the largest cross-validation study of popular ARAIs for sex offenders, suggests that the predictive validity of these measures in routine practice in the United States may be poorer than often assumed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Assessment of psychopathy in male young offenders.

We investigated the psychometric properties of an 18-item modification of the Psychopathy Checklist (PCL) in a sample of 75 male young offenders incarcerated in a maximum-security institution. The distribution and psychometric properties of PCL scores were similar to those found previously (e.g., R. D. Hare; see record 1985-20280-001) in samples of young adult inmates. PCL scores were significantly correlated with the number of conduct-disorder symptoms, previous violent offenses, violent behavior in the institution, and violent recidivism. These and related results from several other studies indicate that the PCL shows promise as a research instrument for the assessment of psychopathy in male young offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change.

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years postrelease. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism postrelease and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis.

A meta-analysis was conducted to examine whether the predictors of recidivism for mentally disordered offenders are different from the predictors for nondisordered offenders. Effect sizes were calculated for 35 predictors of general recidivism and 27 predictors of violent recidivism drawn from 64 unique samples. The results showed that the major predictors of recidivism were the same for mentally disordered offenders as for nondisordered offenders. Criminal history variables were the best predictors, and clinical variables showed the smallest effect sizes. The findings suggest that the risk assessment of mentally disordered offenders can be enhanced with more attention to the social psychological criminological literature and less reliance on models of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Is androgen deprivation therapy effective in the treatment of sex offenders?

We review the effects of androgen deprivation on the sexual behavior of human males. Although eunuchs have existed in many cultures over the last 4,000 years, there is scant detailed and specific information in the historical record about castration status and sexual behavior. From the literature on modern-day eunuchs who are not sex offenders, we conclude that androgen deprivation reduces sexual desire and behavior, including sexual intercourse. Most men, especially those who did not volunteer for the treatment, experience the side effects as extremely bothersome. Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) receives endorsements from some clinicians who treat sex offenders, and it probably reduces sexual recidivism among men who freely request the procedure, but good evidence is sorely lacking. Men who freely request and persist with ADT are probably an especially low-risk group. Little is known about the effects of sexual or violent recidivism among sex offenders who do not freely request it. Little is known about the long term effects of ADT on sexual behavior in general, and sexual recidivism in particular, or about long-term health effects. Clearly, much more research is needed before ADT has a sufficient scientific basis to be relied upon as a principal component of sex offender treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n=82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Criminal behavior as a function of clinical and actuarial variables in a sexual offender population.

The ability of clinical and actuarial variables to predict criminal behavior was investigated in a sample of 342 sexual offenders that was previously used in a study by Hall and Proctor (1987). Discriminant analyses suggested that a linear combination of actuarial variables was significantly predictive of sexual reoffenses against adults and of nonsexual violent and nonviolent reoffending. However, clinical judgment was not significantly predictive of recidivism, nor were actuarial or clinical variables predictive of sexual reoffending against children. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A person-oriented perspective on sexual offenders, offending trajectories, and risk of recidivism: A new challenge for policymakers, risk assessors, and actuarial prediction?

Current risk assessment tools are embedded in a variable-oriented perspective and based on the assumption that the risk of reoffending is linear, additive, and relatively stable over time. As a result, actuarial instruments tend to overestimate the risk of violent/sexual recidivism for some sex offenders while underestimating this risk for others. One of the main causes of such predictive inaccuracies is the inability of current actuarial tools to account for the dynamic aspects of offending trajectories over time. Using a person-oriented approach, the current study examined the presence of offending trajectories in sex offenders using measures of offending at multiple time points in adulthood to examine the risk of violent/sexual reoffending. The study was based on a sample of 246 adult males convicted of a sexual offense between 1994 and 1998. Group-based modeling was used to identify offending trajectories, while Cox proportional hazard was used to examine the links between the identified trajectories and recidivism. Findings suggest that a sex crime is more reflective of a transitory phase of the criminal career rather than evidence of a “sexual criminal career” in the making. The findings challenge underlying assumptions of current actuarial tools and calls for a more sophisticated approach to risk assessment that accounts for offending patterns. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Violent offender research and implications for the criminal justice system.

Some offenders are at very high risk to reoffend. Research conducted at the author's institution and elsewhere shows that psychopathic offenders are especially likely to be violent, that future violence can be predicted with considerable accuracy among men who have committed at least 1 violent offense, and that treatment programs to reduce dangerousness do not always have the intended effects (i.e., they may actually increase the dangerousness of some individuals). Implications for the criminal justice system pertain to release following insanity acquittal offender sentencing and parole, preventive detention, offender treatment, and program evaluation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting recidivism with the Personality Assessment Inventory in a sample of sex offenders screened for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

We examined the ability of scores from the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) to predict postrelease (M = 4.90 years follow-up) arrests in a sample of 1,412 sex offenders. We focused on scores from 4 PAI measures conceptually relevant to offending, including the Antisocial Features (ANT), Aggression (AGG), and Dominance (DOM) scales, as well as the Violence Potential Index (VPI). Scores from several PAI measures demonstrated small- to medium-sized effects in predicting violent nonsexual recidivism, nonviolent recidivism, and sex offender registry violations, with the AGG scale being the strongest (d = 0.50 for violent nonsexual recidivism, d = 0.55 for sex offender registry violations) and most consistent predictor of recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)