Problems Facing Parties Involved in Build, Operate, and Transport Projects in Egypt

One of the newest financial schemes for environmental projects is the Build, Operate, and Transfer (BOT) concept, which is being used increasingly worldwide as a project delivery system by which governments obtain the infrastructure projects by private sector after a concession period free of charge. In the Egyptian environment up to now, promoters and investors have had many fears toward declared projects. This study aims to investigate the potential for implementing the BOT system in the Egyptian environment. This can be achieved by giving a clear view of BOT and of its problems, risk areas, and features, pertaining to the Egyptian environment, in order to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks as much as possible. The collected data was analyzed based on actual implementation in Egypt. This involved the following: (1) An overview of the critical success factors in order to achieve a BOT project; (2) an analysis of results obtained from questionnaires seeking to determine the possibility of occurrence of the different risk factors in the Egyptian environment, and their ranking; (3) a comparison between the questionnaire results and the actual risks from requests for the proposal of locally advertised projects; and (4) a determination of the missed critical success factors in the Egyptian environment. The main conclusion of this study is that three critical success factors are essential for the success of BOT projects in Egypt: (1) Picking the right project; (2) competitive financial proposal; and (3) special features of bid.     

Optimal Capital Structure Model for BOT Power Projects in Turkey

Interest in the Build/Operate/Transfer (BOT) scheme for infrastructure projects has been growing rapidly, and numerous projects have been implemented around the world. Through BOT projects, a government reallocates the risks and rewards in the development of large infrastructure projects to the private sector. One key aspect to the successful implementation of the BOT concept in any country is the raising of finance by project sponsors. Financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity and to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. The objective of this paper is to present a simplified model to determine the optimum equity level for decisionmakers at the evaluation stage of a BOT hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) project in Turkey, which takes place immediately after the completion of the feasibility study. The resulting model is the combination of a financial model and a linear programming model that incorporates an objective of maximizing the return of the project from the equity holder’s point of view. To show versatility of the model, a real case study is conducted. Thus, this research is concerned with the determination of an equity funding level in BOT project finance. There are different equity levels found in BOT HEPP projects, and there is a need for such a model to determine optimal capital structure, which would assist the project sponsors to ensure that the equity level necessary for optimal capital structure is available prior to the project implementation stage.     

Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) approach for project delivery, where the private sector has to finance, design, build, operate, and maintain the facility and then transfer it to the government after a specified concession period, is now gaining widespread popularity in developing countries. Compared with conventional project delivery methods, BOT sponsors expose themselves to a high risk, so that special attention must be paid to analyzing and managing risks. The identification, analysis, and allocation of various types of risks are an important aspect for the validation of privately promoted infrastructure projects. The BOT risk model presented in this paper is a prototype evaluation model that provides a logical, reliable, and consistent procedure for assessing the BOT project risk. The proposed model introduced the BOT risk index (F), which relied on the actual performance of eight main BOT risk areas. Two different modeling approaches were used in constructing this index: a new developed and an adapted Dias and Ioannou model. Not only can this index be used for BOT projects’ risk evaluation, but also for ranking them to select the lowest risk project as well.     

Alternate Financing Strategies for Build-Operate-Transfer Projects

This paper contains a study of build-operate-transfer (BOT) project financing strategies from the perspective of project sponsors. The financing strategy for a BOT project includes the selection of the appropriate mix of equity and debt financing, and the identification of appropriate financing sources. Project sponsors typically wish to minimize their financing costs to ensure their tenders are competitive. Thirteen transportation and power-generation BOT projects in North America and Asia were analyzed. Important considerations and financing strategies were identified and examined. The findings suggest that project risks, project conditions, and availability of financing are the major considerations in selecting a financing strategy. The project risks that were determined to be most significant in financing strategy selection were political, financial, and market risks. Based on the study findings, a decision model was developed that can be used by BOT project sponsors in selecting appropriate financing strategies.     

Build-Operate-Transfer-Type Procurement in Asian Megaprojects

Lessons are drawn from the recent resurgence in public-private partnerships for the procurement of large scale infrastructure, with a focus on Asian megaprojects. BOT (build-operate-transfer)-type win-win cooperation aligns well with the paradigm shift that has repeatedly been called for in addressing construction industry shortfalls. However, the many volatile variables involved and the limited experience in dealing with the special risks encountered highlights the need for decision support frameworks to evaluate and select the optimal from among: (1) potential BOT-type projects; (2) prospective franchisees; and (3) innovative project financing packages. Such frameworks should include appropriate success criteria and indicators for their evaluation. Benchmarking of good practices would establish reasonable ranges of values for such indicators. Identification of critical success factors, classifications of common risks, and comparisons of recent experiences on BOT-type projects lead to recommendations for the development of a “BOT body of knowledge” with related guidelines and toolkits. These would assist both public and private sector decision makers considering BOT-type modalities to attain multiple win-win-win targets that benefit their respective interests, as well as those of the general public end users.     

Interface Management for China’s Build–Operate–Transfer Projects

Stringent pressure on public finances has made China’s infrastructure development a “bottleneck” in its bid to sustain rapid economic growth. As a result, many modalities have been developed to utilize the resources and skills of the private sector to supply essential infrastructure products and services, as well as to improve the efficiency in government procurement of the same. The build–operate–transfer (BOT) approach is an important example of these innovative modalities. The BOT approach in China is still in its infancy; many pitfalls await the unwary and obstacles impede more extensive application of this modality. The pitfalls are attributable to the complexities in the BOT approach, particularly when attempted in China’s transition economy emerging from decades of central planning to become one that is more market driven and globally integrated. This paper proposes two systems concepts to help manage this complexity: (1) a process modeling approach that maps key functions, parameters and interfaces in the project delivery process, and (2) the use of interface management involving specific measures that have contributed towards project success in Chinese BOT projects. The process modeling approach has led to the development of China’s BOT generic process model (CBGPM). Expert opinion was elicited on the criticality of the interfaces identified in CBGPM as well as the effectiveness of selected interface management measures. Finally, an interface management framework consisting of five key steps is suggested for China’s BOT projects.     

Alternative Concession Model for Build Operate Transfer Contract Projects

This paper develops an alternative concession model for build operate transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects. The concession period is a measure for deciding when the project ownership will be transferred from the investor back to the government concerned; it also demarcates the benefits, authorities, and responsibilities between the government and private investors. Previous studies have developed various techniques and methods, mainly suggesting proper organization structure, contracting procedures, methods of project financing, and risk allocation strategies when BOT-contract projects are implemented. These works have provided effective methodologies for the development of BOT contracts. Nevertheless, it appears that little has been undertaken in studying the way to determine the concession period in a BOT contract. This paper critically reviews the principles of establishing the concession period in a BOT contract. Such a review leads to developing a quantitative model for determining a proper concession period that can protect the interests of both the government concerned and private investors. An example is given that indicates how the alternative model can be applied to determine the concession periods of BOT infrastructure projects.     

Critical Success Factors for Transfer-Operate-Transfer Urban Water Supply Projects in China

Over the years, build-operate-transfer (BOT) has continuously attracted research interests. Many studies on BOT have been carried out. Variations of BOT such as build-own-operate-transfer and build-own-operate have also been reported in some relevant publications. However, few investigations thus far have been conducted for transfer-operate-transfer (TOT). Therefore, there is a knowledge gap in this particular field. TOT is a new model that is suitable for existing infrastructure and public utility projects formerly funded by the governments and currently operated by state-owned enterprises. It refers to the transfer of a running public project to a foreign business or domestic private entity. Based on four case studies carried out in the Chinese water supply industry, this paper examines why there is an increasing need for TOT projects and identifies the distinctive features of TOT practice in China. This is followed by an introduction of a framework of critical success factors (CSFs) for TOT projects. The most important factors include project profitability, asset quality, fair risk allocation, competitive tendering, internal coordination within government, employment of professional advisors, corporate governance, and government supervision. The identification of CSFs provides a useful guidance to project parties planning to participate in TOT practice.     

Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects

This paper extends the build–operate–transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to establishing a risk concession model for BOT contract projects. The decision for a concession period is one of the most important decisions in determining a BOT contract. BOTCcM presents an alternative method to assist in determining a concession period that can protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. However, there is a major limitation in using the model, namely it gives no consideration to the impacts of risks on the estimation of various economic variables in the model. This study considers the risk impacts to the BOTCcM model and presents an additional risk concession model. This model provides an approach for formulating a concession period to consider the impacts of risks and, at the same time, protect the basic interests of both the investor and the government concerned. A hypothetical case is used to show the procedures of formulating the risk concession period through the assistance of the Monte Carlo simulation method.     

Concessionaire Selection for Build-Operate-Transfer Tunnel Projects in Hong Kong

A significant realignment of risks between project participants is a fundamental facet of the new procurement paradigm of BOT (build-operate-transfer). A BOT concessionaire assumes far more and deeper risks than a contractor. One critical contributor to the success of a BOT project is the selection of an appropriate concessionaire who has the necessary capacity to provide the best overall deal throughout the build-operate-transfer process. However, various BOT-type procurement protocols are not yet proven and are still being tried and tested. Many countries are at the lower ends of their learning curves. Therefore, there is a need to benchmark the best practices that have been emerging. The Hong Kong government has developed a well-structured concessionaire selection framework supported by the Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis technique. This paper analyzes and draws experiences and lessons from this concessionaire selection practice. Current concessionaire selection practices worldwide are also discussed with a view to improve the procurement process of regions lacking in such experiences or expertise.     

Financial Viability Analysis and Capital Structure Optimization in Privatized Public Infrastructure Projects

Numerous public infrastructure projects have been privatized worldwide, where responsibilities, risks, and rewards are substantially reallocated between pubic and private sectors. The financial evaluation of a privatized infrastructure project is complex and challenging because of the risks and uncertainties due to the large size, long contract duration, nonrecourse financing, multiple project participants with different motives and interest, and the complexity of the contractual arrangements. Improved financial engineering techniques are required to overcome the limitations of traditional financial analysis techniques in addressing risks and uncertainties. This paper develops a methodology for capital structure optimization and financial viability analysis that reflects the characteristics of project financing, incorporates simulation and financial engineering techniques, and aims for win–win results for both public and private sectors. This quantitative methodology defines the capital structure of a privatized project in four dimensions, examines different project participants’ perspectives of the capital structure, optimizes the capital structure, and evaluates the project’s financial viability when it is under construction risk, bankruptcy risk and various economic risks (that are dealt with as stochastic variables), and is subject to other constraints imposed by different project participants. This methodology also evaluates the impact of governmental guarantees and supports, and addresses the issue of the equity holders’ commitment to project success by initiating the concepts of equity at project risks, value of governmental loan guarantee, and project bankrupt probability during construction. A framework and a solution algorithm are provided for this proposed methodology. These research outputs will significantly facilitate both public and private sector in evaluating a privatized project’s financial viability and collectively determining an optimal capital structure that safeguards their respective interests.     

Case Study: Izmit Domestic and Industrial Water Supply Build–Operate–Transfer Project

The “build, operate, and transfer model” (BOT) is a financing model, which is used in many developing countries to finance new infrastructure projects with private sector participation. The BOT method foresees the financing, designing, building, operating, and managing of the facility by the private sector and then its transfer free of charge, to the owner after a predetermined concession period. For interested parties, the history of BOT laws and projects in Turkey is presented as an Appendix. In this study, the Izmit Domestic and Industrial Water Supply Project, the biggest privately financed water supply project procured under the BOT model in the world at the time and the first in Turkey will be introduced and the problems that arose during the implementation of the project, namely, the scope of the project, equity debt ratio, return on equity, principles of accounting, coordination of State departments, land access, determination of the optimum operation period, and the sale price of the water, will be presented and suggestions will be given on how to deal with these problems.     

BOT Financial Model: Taiwan High Speed Rail Case

Owing to the high cost of large construction projects in recent years, build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts are getting popular in the global construction market, especially in infrastructure construction. With BOT, the government is able to put projects on track without concerning itself too much about raising funds. On the other hand, due to the fact that the concessionaire who is awarded the project is responsible for the operation of the end facility for a certain period of time, reliable quality of the facility and effective operation could be expected. This paper introduces the financial model used by the Bureau of Taiwan High Speed Rail for its BOT projects. The parameters and variables of the model are presented. Its basic assumptions, input data, cost requirement, self-financing ability analysis, financial statements, and indices are discussed. The scenario analysis is used to highlight the application of the model.     

Hong Kong Experience in Managing BOT Projects

BOT (build-operate-transfer) project delivery systems have provided effective routes to mobilize private sector funds, innovative technologies, management skills, and operational efficiencies for public infrastructure development. However, many countries and regions lack BOT expertise and experience. Hong Kong, one of the pioneers in optimizing private sector participation in infrastructure development, has developed five large tunnels on the BOT basis since the late 1960s, the first of which recently completed its franchise period and entered into the posttransfer operation phase. Experience and lessons gained in formulating and managing BOT projects over more than 30 years have enabled the Hong Kong government to develop a well-structured BOT framework. This proven BOT model is useful for countries and regions lacking such expertise and still in need of BOT-based infrastructure. This paper discusses key development aspects of the five BOT tunnels, including feasibility study; tender selection; legal, financial, and land issues; design and construction; operation and maintenance; transfer; and posttransfer management.     

Selecting BOT/PPP Infrastructure Projects for Government Guarantee Portfolio under Conditions of Budget and Risk in the Indonesian Context

Guarantee provision in privately financed infrastructure projects implemented as build-operate-transfer/public-private-partnership (BOT/PPP) arrangements is not uncommon in many countries, and Indonesia is no exception. But, given that the government budget is, in most if not all cases, not unlimited, there must be a selection of BOT/PPP projects posing proposals for seeking government guarantees. This paper presents a project selection methodology under the chance-constrained goal-programming framework in the context of the Indonesian BOT/PPP infrastructure industry. The ultimate objective of the selection is to result in a portfolio of guaranteed projects that brings maximum welfare gain to the economy as a whole, maximum total net change in financial net present value but, at the same time, puts the government at the lowest fiscal risk for a given budget constraint. The proposed methodology allows the government to examine relationships among the expected total payment, budget-at-risk allocated, and a desired confidence interval of actual payment not exceeding the budget-at-risk. The government can also compare two or more alternative scenarios and choose the optimal one that delivers the highest value for the money. To illustrate the model application, without sacrificing the generality of the proposed methodology, a much-simplified hypothetical case is presented, examined, and discussed.     

Dynamic Prediction of Project Success Using Artificial Intelligence

The purpose of construction management is to successfully accomplish projects, which requires a continuous monitoring and control procedure. To dynamically predict project success, this research proposes an evolutionary project success prediction model (EPSPM). The model is developed based on a hybrid approach that fuses genetic algorithms (GAs), fuzzy logic (FL), and neural networks (NNs). In EPSPM, GAs are primarily used for optimization, FL for approximate reasoning, and NNs for input-output mapping. Furthermore, the model integrates the process of continuous assessment of project performance to dynamically select factors that influence project success. The validation results show that the proposed EPSPM, driven by a hybrid artificial intelligence technique, could be used as an intelligent decision support system, for project managers, to control projects in a real time base.     

Relative Effectiveness of Project Delivery and Contract Strategies

Project delivery systems define the roles and responsibilities of the parties involved in a project. They also establish an execution framework in terms of sequencing of design, procurement, and construction. The decision made in the selection of a project delivery system for a project impacts all phases of execution of the project and greatly impacts the efficiency of project execution. Such decisions should be facilitated by thorough analysis. Structured, quantitative decision analysis processes have been shown to have several benefits over the simplistic, holistic, and informal processes that typically characterize subjective evaluations. However, a dearth of quantitative values of project delivery systems established and validated through research has invariably left project managers with no alternative than to make project delivery selection decisions on the basis of subjective evaluations. Development of the needed quantitative values for application in a decision analysis process would greatly enhance the quality of the decision-making process and provide a defensible rationale for selection of project delivery systems for capital projects. This paper presents research findings that provide the needed quantitative values in this area. Based on the quantitative values defined here, interested parties can develop and implement quantitative evaluation of project delivery alternatives to identify the optimal solution for a given project. Multicriteria decision analysis was found to be the suitable approach for a quantitative, analytical evaluation of project delivery systems. Consequently, the quantitative values presented in this paper were developed in accordance with the requirements of the multicriteria decision analysis technique known as simple multiattribute rating technique with swing weights (SMARTS). Utilizing the quantitative values presented here and applying the analysis technique of SMARTS, a decision support tool has been developed and validated for the Construction Industry Institute. The decision support tool is presently being utilized by member companies of the Construction Industry Institute that were privy to its development. With the presentation of the quantitative values in this paper, other parties interested in developing similar tools would benefit from the research results presented here.     

Selecting Appropriate Project Delivery System: Fuzzy Approach with Risk Analysis

The selection of an appropriate project delivery system that suits all project and owner needs is one of the key decisions to a successful project. Therefore, this decision should be made based on thorough analysis. In this paper, a fuzzy multiattribute decision-making (FMADM) model is developed. The model accounts for uncertainties and imprecision in the decision space as well as fuzziness in the nature of the decision attributes. The model utilizes fuzzy decision-making approach in order to evaluate the membership function corresponding to the utility of each project delivery alternative. Project delivery system alternatives are ranked using fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method based on their utility membership functions and by evaluating the distance of each project delivery alternative from fuzzy ideal solutions. In the TOPSIS method, alternatives are ranked based on their closeness coefficient (CC). In addition, the risk attitude of the decision maker is considered in the model by using derived utility membership functions corresponding to the risk attitude of the decision maker. The model is applied to a petrochemical project as a case study. In the case study, the model outcome that ranked Turnkey system as the best system conforms to the lessons learned by the decision maker from several past projects. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is done in the case study. The results show the significant value of the FMADM model for selecting appropriate project delivery system for projects.     

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Support Alliance Team Selection

The alliance concept is similar to the design build project delivery system. However, it is denoted by a special form of partnership between the owner and the design-build team, where the owner is very involved in the project. This type of delivery systems is gaining popularity as many infrastructure projects require the owner to order materials ahead of time, before engaging the design-build team in the project. As in design-build, the selection of the engineer-procure-construct team depends not only on the price but also on qualitative factors. This paper lays out the framework that facilitates selecting the best alliance team for a project by quantifying the evaluation factors and combining them into a single score. Using a Monte Carlo simulation and varying all the factors relevant to the decision problem can reveal biases present in the evaluation to assist in making the best possible decision. A case study dealing with a large utility project illustrates this methodology.     

Entropic Risk Analysis by a High Level Decision Support System for Construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.