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1.
The objective of this paper is to conduct Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Environmental Life Cycle Costing (ELCC) studies for lignocellulosic bioethanol blends [E10 and E85 (10% and 85% by volume of bioethanol with gasoline, respectively)] and conventional gasoline (CG). To compare the environmental performance and economic advantage of the selected fuel blends, the impact potentials and the cost of fuel applications per kilometer by a middle size car was evaluated. According the LCA results, one kilometer driven by E10 and E85 fueled vehicles could reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 4.3% and 47% and ozone layer depletion emissions by 3% and 66%, respectively, relative to CG. However, shifting from gasoline to bioethanol increases the emissions that contribute to eutrophication and photochemical ozone depletion. In terms of acidification potential, E85 shows a more favorable result relative to E10 and CG. According to the ELCC analysis, E85 fuel use provides a 23% lower driving cost relative to CG based on a-1 km driving distance. The results showed that E85 seems to be the best alternative in terms of both GHG emission and fuel production cost reduction compare to CG.  相似文献   

2.
Ethanol from sugarcane is mainly used as fuel for cars in Brazil. However, the chemical industry is considering ethanol also as biotic feedstock for several plastics (e.g. polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride). Both uses are able to cause less environmental impacts than their fossil references if we look to certain specific environmental impact categories such as fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, which use would be able to bring the most environmental gains to society? In order to answer this question, we performed an attributional life cycle assessment of using 1 kg of hydrous ethanol as fuel for transportation and the same amount for monomer production (ethylene), and compared them with the common practice of today in Brazil. Using ethanol to produce ethylene (instead of fossil-based ethylene) would generate environmental gains in the order of 32.0 MJ of fossil energy and 1.87 kg CO2eq, whereas the use of ethanol for transportation (instead of gasoline mixture, for flex-fuel cars) would generate environmental gains in the order of 27.2 MJ of fossil energy and 1.82 kg CO2eq. Some uncertainties were quantified, for instance we could observe that when the ethanol-to-ethylene reaction yield was lower than 96%, the fuel route had better results for GHG emission savings.  相似文献   

3.
Biofuel use seems to have certain environmental, energy and socioeconomic advantages versus fossil fuel consumption. The substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels can be a useful tool to fulfil the Spanish and European policy in relation to mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the security in energy supply. The continuous increase in energy consumption, dependence on energy and high petroleum prices has motivated increasing support for renewable energy promotion. In Spain (the third ethanol producer in Europe in 2007), ethanol from lignocellulosic feedstocks could be one of the most valuable and interesting possibilities for renewable transportation fuels due to the limited competition with food production and high net reduction of GHG emissions. This study is focused on flax shives, obtained as an agricultural co-product from flax crops dedicated to fibre production for specialty paper pulp manufacture as lignocellulosic biomass to produce second generation ethanol involving the use of cellulosic technology. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to evaluate the environmental impacts of the production and use in a flexi fuel vehicle (FFV) of ethanol blends (10 and 85% in volume of ethanol with gasoline) versus conventional gasoline, throughout their whole life cycle in order to highlight the main sources of these impacts. The system boundaries include cultivation, extraction, processing and final use of fuels. Mass and economic allocation were considered to determine the effect on the results of different allocation approaches.The results of the study show that the allocation methods are essential for outcomes and decision-making. Using ethanol as transportation fuel could present better environmental performance than conventional gasoline in terms of global warming and fossil fuel consumption according to mass allocation. However, environmental credits could be achieved in terms of acidification, fossil fuel consumption and human toxicity according to economic allocation. Contributions to other impact categories such as eutrophication and photochemical oxidants formation were lower for conventional gasoline regardless of the allocation procedure selected. Agricultural activities related to feedstock production are notable contributors to the environmental performance. Thus, high yielding varieties, reduction of tillage activities and reduction in fertilization should help to reduce these impacts.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper, a comprehensive study on corn‐based ethanol in a Canadian context is conducted, which uses the most reliable and up to date data, considers realistic assumptions, and applies sound methodology to provide a basis for developing future scenarios for corn‐based ethanol and compared the results with the conventional fuel, such as gasoline. It is estimated that the net energy value (NEV), defined as the energy content of a liter of ethanol minus the total energy use to produce a liter of ethanol, is 9.6 MJ L?1 (LHV), when co‐products energy credits are not considered. In addition, a comparison of life cycle energy use for corn‐based ethanol and gasoline reveals that the life cycle energy use to produce a liter of ethanol is considerably less than the life cycle energy use to produce a liter of gasoline. Furthermore, a comparison of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for corn‐based ethanol and gasoline reveals that the life cycle GHG emissions released per liter of ethanol produced is an order of magnitude lesser than the life cycle GHG emissions released per liter of gasoline produced, when GHG emissions displaced by ethanol co‐products are considered in the estimation. Finally, a comparison of our results in terms of net fossil fuel input, net fossil fuel ratio and GHG emissions is carried out with the results obtained from the ERG biofuel analysis meta‐model (EBAMM) to reflect both Canadian and US perspectives. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Since 2001, in order to enhance ethanol's cost competitiveness with gasoline, the Thai government has approved the exemption of excise tax imposed on ethanol, controlling the retail price of gasohol (a mixture of ethanol and gasoline at a ratio of 1:9) to be less than that of octane 95 gasoline, within a range not exceeding 1.5 baht a litre. The policy to promote ethanol for transport is being supported by its positive effects on energy security and climate change mitigation. An analysis of energy, greenhouse gas (GHG) balances and GHG abatement cost was done to evaluate fuel ethanol produced from cassava in Thailand. Positive energy balance of 22.4 MJ/L and net avoided GHG emission of 1.6 kg CO2 eq./L found for cassava-based ethanol (CE) proved that it would be a good substitute for gasoline, effective in fossil energy saving and GHG reduction. With a GHG abatement cost of US$99 per tonne of CO2, CE is rather less cost effective than the many other climate strategies relevant to Thailand in the short term. Opportunities for improvements are discussed to make CE a reasonable option for national climate policy.  相似文献   

6.
提出了一个新的考虑燃料可再生性的净能源成本指标.这一指标除了燃料的净能源产出和气态污染物排放外部成本之外,还将生命周期成本和燃料可再生性综合成一个指标,而已往的研究一般仅考虑前两项.以广西木薯-汽油混合燃料考虑可再生性的生命周期净能源成本优化为案例,对木薯乙醇-汽油混合燃料考虑可再生性的生命周期净能源成本指标进行了优化.结果表明:与初始值相比,优化后该指标值降低6.9%.  相似文献   

7.
Alcohols have been used as a fuel for engines since 19th century. Among the various alcohols, ethanol is known as the most suited renewable, bio-based and ecofriendly fuel for spark-ignition (SI) engines. The most attractive properties of ethanol as an SI engine fuel are that it can be produced from renewable energy sources such as sugar, cane, cassava, many types of waste biomass materials, corn and barley. In addition, ethanol has higher evaporation heat, octane number and flammability temperature therefore it has positive influence on engine performance and reduces exhaust emissions. In this study, the effects of unleaded gasoline (E0) and unleaded gasoline–ethanol blends (E50 and E85) on engine performance and pollutant emissions were investigated experimentally in a single cylinder four-stroke spark-ignition engine at two compression ratios (10:1 and 11:1). The engine speed was changed from 1500 to 5000 rpm at wide open throttle (WOT). The results of the engine test showed that ethanol addition to unleaded gasoline increase the engine torque, power and fuel consumption and reduce carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. It was also found that ethanol–gasoline blends allow increasing compression ratio (CR) without knock occurrence.  相似文献   

8.
One of the main challenges faced by mankind in the 21st century is to meet the increasing demand for energy requirements by means of a more sustainable energy supply. In countries that are net fossil fuel importers, expectation about the benefit of using alternative fuels on reducing oil imports is the primary driving force behind efforts to promote its production and use. Spain is scarce in domestic energy sources and more than 50% of the energy used is fossil fuel based. The promotion of renewable energies use is one of the principal vectors in the Spanish energy policy. Selected herbaceous crops such as Brassica carinata are currently under study as potential energy sources. Its biomass can be considered as potential feedstock to ethanol conversion by an enzymatic process due to the characteristics of its composition, rich in cellulose and hemicellulose. This paper aims to analyse the environmental performance of two ethanol-based fuel applications (E10 and E85) in a passenger car (E10 fuel: a mixture of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline by volume; E85 fuel: a mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline by volume) as well as their comparison with conventional gasoline as transport fuel. Two types of functional units are applied in this study: ethanol production oriented and travelling distance oriented functional units in order to reflect the availability or not of ethanol supply. E85 seems to be the best alternative when ethanol production based functional unit is considered in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and E10 in terms of non-renewable energy resources use. Nevertheless, E85 offers the best environmental performance when travelling distance oriented functional unit is assumed in both impacts. In both functional unit perspectives, the use of ethanol-based fuels reduces the global warming and fossil fuels consumption. However, the contributions to other impact indicators (e.g. acidification, eutrophication and photochemical oxidants formation) were lower for conventional gasoline.Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) procedure helps to identify the key areas in the B. carinata ethanol production life cycle where the researchers and technicians need to work to improve the environmental performance. Technological development could help in lowering both the environmental impact and the prices of the ethanol fuels.  相似文献   

9.
Accounting for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the production stage of a bioenergy crop is essential for evaluating its eco-efficiency. The objective of this study was to calculate the change in GHG emissions for canola (Brassica napus L.) production on the Canadian Prairies from 1986 to 2006. Net GHG emissions in the sub-humid and semi-arid climatic zones were estimated for fallow-seeded and stubble-seeded canola in intensive-, reduced- and no-tillage systems, with consideration given to emissions associated with synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer input, mineralized N from crop residues, N leaching and volatilization, farm operations, the manufacturing and transportation of fertilizer, agrochemicals and farm machinery, and emission and removal of CO2 associated with changes in land use (LUC) and land management (LMC). The GHG emissions on an area basis were higher in stubble-seeded canola than in fallow-seeded canola but, the opposite was true on a grain dry matter (DM) basis. Nitrous oxide emissions associated with canola production, CO2 emissions associated with farm energy use and the manufacturing of synthetic N fertilizer and its transportation contributed 49% of the GHG emissions in 1986 which increased to 66% in 2006. Average CO2 emissions due to LUC decreased from 27% of total GHG emissions in 1986 to 8% in 2006 and soil C sequestration due to LMC increased from 8% to 37%, respectively. These changes caused a reduction in net GHG emission intensities of 40% on an area basis and of 65% on a grain DM basis. Despite the reduction in GHG emission intensities, GHG emissions associated with canola in the Prairies increased from 3.4 Tg CO2 equiv in 1986 to 3.8 Tg CO2 equiv in 2006 because of the more than doubling of canola production.  相似文献   

10.
《Biomass & bioenergy》2005,28(5):475-489
Nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with ethanol (a liquid fuel) derived from corn grain produced in selected counties in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin are presented. Corn is cultivated under no-tillage practice (without plowing). The system boundaries include corn production, ethanol production, and the end use of ethanol as a fuel in a midsize passenger car. The environmental burdens in multi-output biorefinery processes (e.g., corn dry milling and wet milling) are allocated to the ethanol product and its various coproducts by the system expansion allocation approach.The nonrenewable energy requirement for producing 1 kg of ethanol is approximately 13.4–21.5 MJ (based on lower heating value), depending on corn milling technologies employed. Thus, the net energy value of ethanol is positive; the energy consumed in ethanol production is less than the energy content of the ethanol (26.8 MJ kg−1).In the GHG emissions analysis, nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil and soil organic carbon levels under corn cultivation in each county are estimated by the DAYCENT model. Carbon sequestration rates range from 377 to 681 kg C ha−1 year−1 and N2O emissions from soil are 0.5–2.8 kg N ha−1 year−1 under no-till conditions. The GHG emissions assigned to 1 kg of ethanol are 260–922 g CO2 eq. under no-tillage. Using ethanol (E85) fuel in a midsize passenger vehicle can reduce GHG emissions by 41–61% km−1 driven, compared to gasoline-fueled vehicles. Using ethanol as a vehicle fuel, therefore, has the potential to reduce nonrenewable energy consumption and GHG emissions.  相似文献   

11.
Bioenergy from lignocellulosic biomass offers the potential to provide a significant source of clean, low carbon and secure energy. In recent years, a number of studies have been carried out to assess the environmental performance of lignocellulosic ethanol fuel. However, the complexity of biofuel systems generates significantly different results due to the differences in input data, methodologies applied, and local geographical conditions. Moreover, much attention has been placed on assessing climate change potential and energy consumption. This study draws on 53 published life cycle assessment of the lignocellulosic ethanol. More than half of the articles reviewed focus on assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission or fossil energy consumption or combination of both. All studies but two reviewed conclude that there is a reduction of GHG emission when using lignocellulosic ethanol in comparison to fossil fuel reference system. However, different studies have reported different sources contributing to GHG emission: some reports majority of GHG emissions come from biomass cultivation stage; others argue significant GHG emissions from ethanol conversion process. All articles suggest a reduction of fossil consumption in all cases of ethanol fuel. Contrary results for the impact of acidification and eutrophication potential from lignocellulosic ethanol are also observed—some reports less impact in comparison to conventional gasoline whiles others report significant increase of acidification and eutrophication potential by ethanol production. Studies also show water consumption varies significantly depending on biomass types, irrigation requirement, and regional irrigation practices; with different findings on whether agricultural practices or ethanol conversion being the main sources for water consumption. Contrary findings on emissions contributing to ecotocixity and human health have also been reported with some being favourable while others not. Results from the literature also suggest strong dependency of LCA results on system boundary, functional unit, data quality and allocation methods chosen.  相似文献   

12.
Gas-to-liquids (GTL) as an alternative to diesel is considered to be one of the technical options to reduce petroleum consumption in the on-road transportation sector. Between May and August 2007, a joint demonstration program by Tsinghua University, Beijing Transit, Cummins Corporation and Shell Corporation was carried out in Beijing. The program focused on the supply systems and vehicle use of GTL fuel. The demonstration fleet was formed by four transit buses fueled with GTL and four with diesel. It was demonstrated that GTL has good compatibility with diesel in terms of fuel supply system and vehicle use. This paper compares the energy consumption and GHG emissions of diesel and GTL fuel supply chains by life cycle analysis based on demonstration results. The results indicate GTL’s large range (reported 54–70%) in synthesis efficiency, as the key factor in determining energy consumption and GHG emissions within the GTL fuel supply chain. For the probable case (GTL synthesis efficiency: 65%), the life cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions of GTL fuel are 42.5% and 12.6% higher than that of diesel. For two sensitivity analysis cases (GTL synthesis efficiency: 54% and70%), energy consumptions are 74.2% and 31.2% higher and GHG emissions are 27.3% and 7.4% higher than that of the diesel fuel supply chain. If the efficiency of the GTL synthesis process is improved to 75%, then the GHG emissions level of the GTL fuel supply chain can be reduced to the same level as the diesel fuel supply chain.  相似文献   

13.
A streamlined life cycle assessment (LCA) is reported of a nuclear-based copper–chlorine (Cu–Cl) hydrogen production cycle, including estimates of fossil fuel energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Calculations revealed that the process requires 474 kJ of fossil fuel energy per MJ of hydrogen, which is less than for other hydrogen production processes. Moreover, GHG emissions are estimated to be 27 gCO2e per MJ of hydrogen, which is only slightly higher than the corresponding value for wind-based hydrogen production. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the performance of the system could be further improved at higher yields of hydrogen. Although the system significantly outperformed fossil-based gasoline and hydrogen production pathways, the integrated nuclear and thermochemical cycle still requires significant research and development before commercialization is possible.  相似文献   

14.
This paper has performed an assessment of lifecycle (as known as well-to-wheels, WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption of a fuel cell vehicle (FCV). The simulation tool MATLAB/Simulink is employed to examine the real-time behaviors of an FCV, which are used to determine the energy efficiency and the fuel economy of the FCV. Then, the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) model is used to analyze the fuel-cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions for hydrogen fuels. Three potential pathways of hydrogen production for FCV application are examined, namely, steam reforming of natural gas, water electrolysis using grid electricity, and water electrolysis using photovoltaic (PV) electricity, respectively. Results show that the FCV has the maximum system efficiency of 60%, which occurs at about 25% of the maximum net system power. In addition, the FCVs fueled with PV electrolysis hydrogen could reduce about 99.2% energy consumption and 46.6% GHG emissions as compared to the conventional gasoline vehicles (GVs). However, the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions of the FCVs fueled with grid-electrolysis hydrogen are 35% and 52.8% respectively higher than those of the conventional GVs. As compared to the grid-based battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the FCVs fueled with reforming hydrogen from natural gas are about 79.0% and 66.4% in the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
This research examines in detail the technology and economics of substituting ethanol for gasoline. This endeavor examines three issues. First, the benefits of ethanol/gasoline blends are examined, and then the technical problems of large-scale implementation of ethanol. Second, ethanol production possibilities are examined in detail from a variety of feedstocks and technologies. The feedstocks are the starch/sugar crops and crop residues, while the technologies are corn wet mill, dry grind, and lignocellulosic fermentation. Examining in detail the production possibilities allows the researchers to identity the extent of technological change, production costs, byproducts, and GHG emissions. Finally, a U.S. agricultural model, FASOMGHG, is updated which predicts the market penetration of ethanol given technological progress, variety of technologies and feedstocks, market interactions, energy prices, and GHG prices.FASOMGHG has several interesting results. First, gasoline prices have a small expansionary impact on the U.S. ethanol industry. Both agricultural producers’ income and cost both increase with higher energy prices. If wholesale gasoline is $4 per gallon, the predicted ethanol market penetration attains 53% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2030. Second, the corn wet mill remains an important industry for ethanol production, because this industry also produces corn oil, which could be converted to biodiesel. Third, GHG prices expand the ethanol industry. However, the GHG price expands the corn wet mill, but has an ambiguous impact on lignocellulosic ethanol. Feedstocks for lignocellulosic fermentation can also be burned with coal to generate electricity. Both industries are quite GHG efficient. Finally, U.S. government subsidies on biofuels have an expansionary impact on ethanol production, but may only increase market penetration by an additional 1% in 2030, which is approximately 6 billion gallons.  相似文献   

16.
The purpose of this work was to estimate GHG emissions and energy balances for the future expansion of sugarcane ethanol fuel production in Mexico with one current and four possible future modalities. We used the life cycle methodology that is recommended by the European Renewable Energy Directive (RED), which distinguished the following five system phases: direct Land Use Change (LUC); crop production; biomass transport to industry; industrial processing; and ethanol transport to admixture plants. Key variables affecting total GHG emissions and fossil energy used in ethanol production were LUC emissions, crop fertilization rates, the proportion of sugarcane areas that are burned to facilitate harvest, fossil fuels used in the industrial phase, and the method for allocation of emissions to co-products. The lower emissions and higher energy ratios that were observed in the present Brazilian case were mainly due to the lesser amount of fertilizers applied, also were due to the shorter distance of sugarcane transport, and to the smaller proportion of sugarcane areas that were burned to facilitate manual harvest. The resulting modality with the lowest emissions of equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2e) was ethanol produced from direct juice and generating surplus electricity with 36.8 kgCO2e/GJethanol. This was achieved using bagasse as the only fuel source to satisfy industrial phase needs for electricity and steam. Mexican emissions were higher than those calculated for Brazil (27.5 kgCO2e/GJethanol) among all modalities. The Mexican modality with the highest ratio of renewable/fossil energy was also ethanol from sugarcane juice generating surplus electricity with 4.8 GJethanol/GJfossil.  相似文献   

17.
应用微乳化理论研制E10含水乙醇汽油乳化剂,在电喷发动机上进行燃用E10含水乙醇汽油对发动机动力性、经济性和排放性的影响试验研究.试验结果表明:基于HLB值理论配制的SPY乳化剂能较好地解决E10含水乙醇汽油的稳定性问题;发动机燃用E10含水乙醇汽油后,动力性略有降低,有效燃油消耗率略有升高,能源消耗率降低;怠速排放的CO、HC、NOx均下降,NOx下降幅度达到65%;多工况排放的CO、HC在低负荷略有降低,中高负荷时明显降低,CO降低9% ~ 17%,HC降低4%~9%;NOx在中小负荷时降低12%左右,大负荷时改变不明显.  相似文献   

18.
The modified Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) prescribes a volume of biofuels to be used in the United States transportation sector each year through 2022. As the dominant component of the transportation sector, we consider the feasibility of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) parc to provide enough demand for biofuels to satisfy RFS2. Sensitivity studies show that the fuel price differential between gasoline and ethanol blendstocks, such as E85, is the principal factor in LDV biofuel consumption. The numbers of flex fuel vehicles and biofuel refueling stations will grow given a favorable price differential. However, unless the feedstock price differential becomes extreme (biomass prices below $100 per dry ton and oil prices above $215 per barrel), which deviates from historical price trends, LDV parc biofuel consumption will fall short of the RFS2 mandate without an enforcement mechanism. Additionally, such commodity prices might increase biofuel consumption in the short-term, but discourage use of biofuels in the long-term as other technologies that do not rely on any gasoline blendstock may be preferable. Finally, the RFS2 program goals of reducing fossil fuel consumption and transportation greenhouse gas emissions could be achieved through other pathways, such as notable improvements in conventional vehicle efficiency.  相似文献   

19.
将甲醇、乙醇、正丁醇和2,5-二甲基呋喃(DMF)分别与市售编号为92号汽油按照体积比为1∶9的比例混合,连同纯汽油组成M10、E10、B10、F10、G100 5种燃料,在一辆缸内直喷(GDI)乘用车上研究不同燃料对整车性能的影响。试验结果表明,在新欧洲驾驶循环(NEDC)下,丁醇混合燃料的百公里体积油耗和去除热值影响的当量油耗均是被测5种燃料中最低的,其余3种含氧燃料掺混后的百公里体积油耗和当量油耗均高于纯汽油燃料;除M10的CO排放比汽油低外,含氧汽油的CO和THC排放均高于汽油;掺混3种醇类燃料均能够降低NO_x排放,F10的NO_x排放与纯汽油相当;4种含氧汽油大幅降低了颗粒物质量和数量排放。向汽油中添加含氧燃料能够降低汽车在中高车速稳定运行时的油耗和排放,但添加含氧燃料后的汽油比纯汽油更加不适应低车速和起动工况。在动力性方面,4种含氧汽油均缩短了汽车的加速时间。  相似文献   

20.
The process of fuel ethanol production from cassava root is connected to a chain of impacts on the water resource of the country where the cassava plant is grown and the root processed into fuel ethanol. The paper assesses the impact of the domestic production of 5 per cent ethanol (E5) needed under the Nigerian biofuel programme from cassava root on the water resource of Nigeria. Using the 2007 Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption as the baseline, Nigeria will require about 0.49 hm3 of ethanol to blend 9.32 hm3 of PMS to arrive at the 2007 consumption estimates. The impact of the domestic production of this ethanol requirement translates to about 6.0 km3 of water; out of which about 48 per cent is green and about 52 per cent is blue. Addressing future impact typical of a developing economy like Nigeria, a three-scenario analysis was adopted to examine the impact of future growth in cassava-fuel ethanol requirement on the water resource of Nigeria, and also, the impact of improved water use on the future water footprint of E5. The projected water impact of cassava-ethanol production into the future ranges from 6.02 to 7.28 km3, while improved water use could lower these values by about 0.04–2.35 km3 for the same period, 2010 to 2020, under the projection assumptions made.  相似文献   

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