Modeling climate change impacts on water trading

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program.     

Vulnerability of bank filtration systems to climate change

Bank filtration (BF) is a well established and proven natural water treatment technology, where surface water is infiltrated to an aquifer through river or lake banks. Improvement of water quality is achieved by a series of chemical, biological and physical processes during subsurface passage. This paper aims at identifying climate sensitive factors affecting bank filtration performance and assesses their relevance based on hypothetical ‘drought’ and ‘flood’ climate scenarios. The climate sensitive factors influencing water quantity and quality also have influence on substance removal parameters such as redox conditions and travel time. Droughts are found to promote anaerobic conditions during bank filtration passage, while flood events can drastically shorten travel time and cause breakthrough of pathogens, metals, suspended solids, DOC and organic micropollutants. The study revealed that only BF systems comprising an oxic to anoxic redox sequence ensure maximum removal efficiency. The storage capacity of the banks and availability of two source waters renders BF for drinking water supply less vulnerable than surface water or groundwater abstraction alone. Overall, BF is vulnerable to climate change although anthropogenic impacts are at least as important.     

Perceptions of climate change impacts and self-rated health in coastal Cambodia

Climate change contributes to the global burden of diseases and premature mortality. This burden may be even more pronounced in coastal areas amongst the poor and the marginalised groups. Using a survey data-set from 1823 households in coastal communities in Cambodia, we examine how perceptions on climate change impacts influence self-rated health (SRH) when controlling for livelihoods, food security and contextual and compositional factors. The findings show that individuals who had higher factor scores on perceived socio-ecological impact of climate change were less likely to report good SRH. Likewise, those who reported barriers to protect themselves against the impacts of climate change were less likely to report good health. Surprisingly, households that reported earning more were less likely to report good health.     

Addressing climate change in comfort standards

According to the Buildings Energy Data Book published by the U.S. Department of Energy, in 2006 the building sector consumed 38.9% of the total primary energy used in the United States. Of this energy, 34.8% is used by buildings for space heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. This energy often involves the combustion of fossil fuels, contributing to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere, extreme climate events and sea level rise will continue for several centuries due to inertia of the atmosphere. Therefore, adaptation will be a necessary compliment to carbon dioxide mitigation efforts. This paper argues that both mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change should be added to our building codes and standards. Since space heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning utilize a large amount of energy in buildings, we should begin by redefining our thermal comfort standards and add strategies that mitigate carbon dioxide emissions and adapt to predicted climate variability.     

A probabilistic-based framework for impact and adaptation assessment of climate change on hurricane damage risks and costs

This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework to assess the potential hurricane risks to residential construction under various wind speed change scenarios due to potential climate change. Every year hurricane (cyclone) hazards cause extensive economic losses and social disruption around the world. Annual hurricane damage in the United States (US) is around $6 billion in recent years. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Implications of the changing hazard patterns on hurricane risk assessment warrants an investigation to evaluate the potential impact of climate change. The framework includes probabilistic models of hurricane occurrence and intensity and conditional damage state probabilities (vulnerability model) for typical residential construction in the US, and an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida is presented to illustrate the framework under various scenarios of change in maximum annual wind speed over 50 years. Demographic information, such as median house value and changes in house numbers, and distribution of houses on different exposure, is used to estimate the time-dependent probable damage with or without possible climate change induced change in wind speed. This study shows that climate change may have a substantial impact on the damage and loss estimation in coastal areas, and that certain adaptation strategies can cost effectively decrease the damage, even if the wind speed does not change.     

An integrated city-level planning process to address the impacts of climate change in Kenya: The case of Mombasa

Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges in urban development planning, yet leadership from planning can help society grapple with this challenge. Success in planning is especially important in coastal cities, where urbanization is heavily influenced by the coastline, and development planning processes have to take into consideration the socio-economic as well as ecological reasons why cities were located at the coast. This paper investigates the possibilities of and impediments to an integrated city-level planning framework that is responsive to climate change, using the case of the East African coastal city of Mombasa. It contends that both the principle of subsidiarity as well as the established law give the municipal government the necessary jurisdiction over the baseline issues underlying city management, which through stakeholder engagement, can be leveraged to facilitate an integrated climate change-responsive planning.     

Brazilian policies on climate change: The missing link to cities

This paper criticizes the progress of the Brazilian government in preventing greenhouse gas emissions originating in urban areas. In 2009, Brazil approved its “National Policy on Climate Change”, complementing the 2008s National Plan on Climate Change (NPCC). In these documents, the federal government established measures to be undertaken in order to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, focusing on deforestation.However, the federal government should have regulated urban emissions, since the present Brazilian urbanization context, with big metropolises and the gradual migration of the population to the suburbs, represents a burden on climate change. With this new reality, transport and electricity use tend to grow, with the consequent increase in emissions.On the other hand, the municipalities are responsible for most city planning and transportation policies in Brazil. Pressed by their daily needs, they show little concern towards climate change and do not include the regulation of major sources of emissions among their priorities. Consequently, the municipalities are inefficient in preventing climate change. There are two main explanations for that: they do not have the know-how to prevent emissions; and they do not share this political agenda, since the impact of climate change is seldom acknowledged in the city where the emissions occur. Therefore, the central government has a role to play in regulating urban emissions. The study concludes that the National Plan and the National Policy, being federal documents, should have addressed urban emissions throughout the nation. Ultimately, they should be revised to guide city planners into planning greener cities. In order to succeed in this task, this legislation should not only require the reduction of emissions, but it should also indicate to the municipalities how they might achieve the reduction.     

Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions.     

Forecasting the local and global socio-economic impact of climate change in the Boreal and Arctic regions of Siberia

Climate change in Siberia, though local, is a problem of global concern. This article examines some of the negative consequences of climate change in the Boreal and Arctic regions of Siberia. Forecasting the local and global socio-economic impacts of climate change in this region includes assessing the potential for adaptation. Forecasting and solving climate-related issues are possible only on the basis of a multidisciplinary approach, consistently implemented at universities. The authors analyse a set of economic problems in the context of climate change: the need to evaluate natural and climate capital, technological demands, adapting technical systems to changes in the climate and increasing the quality of life. They conclude that there is an absence of systemic climate policy in Russia and emphasise the need for consistent accounting of climate-related expenses and benefits in subsurface resource companies carrying out long-term investment projects in the region. The article lays out directions for socio-economic policies that adequately address climate-related challenges.     

Investigation of climate change impacts on flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment using multiple CMIP5 ensembles

ABSTRACT

Climate change is projected to affect the flow regime in urban waterways adversely. This study investigates the climate change impacts on the flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) methods are used to assess flow regime variations. Results of FDCs show a maximum rise of 370% in peak flow under RCP 4.5 however, low flow increases by 40%. Monthly streamflow increases up to 380% except for October and December. Similarly, the majority of the IHA parameters also show at least a 10% increase in their magnitudes under RCP 8.5. However, some parameters such as high pulse duration and rise rate decrease by 50% under RCP 4.5. The catchment would mainly suffer severe impact variations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the future.     

Water policy,climate change and adaptation in South Asia

Scarcity will affect nearly two-thirds of the world in the near future. The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate these problems and unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted, resilience is difficult to achieve. The paper surveys the water resources available in South Asian countries and takes into account the projected climate change impacts on these resources. The paper also analyses the water policies and formulates a conceptual water policy framework in which adaptation is central.     

Climate change impacts on electricity demand: The case of a Southern European country

We study the relationship between average temperatures and electricity consumption in Portugal. Control variables include electricity prices and the economic activity. Our results indicate that there is U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption. While changes in average temperature do not affect electricity consumption by a large extent, extreme temperatures have stronger impacts. Given the mild weather in Portugal, electricity demand has not changed significantly over the last decades. Larger impacts can only be expected if extreme weather events become more frequent. Our results show the importance of considering country specificities in the analysis and of comparing several model specifications.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Geoenvironmental assessment of climate impacts from landfill gas emissions

An extensive field investigation was conducted to determine emissions of 80 individual landfill gas species from 3 cover categories (daily, intermediate, and final) at 5 California (USA) landfills over 2 main seasons (wet and dry). The gases included 15 principal anthropogenic greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, and 13 F-gas species) and 65 non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). Emissions were measured using the static flux chamber method. In addition, field and laboratory tests were conducted to determine geotechnical index properties of the covers. Results are presented for flux and baseline emissions as well as for direct and indirect climate forcing emissions (CO₂-eq.) of the chemicals. Positive flux of a given chemical at a given landfill varied by up to 8 orders of magnitude and similarly, between landfills by up to 8 orders of magnitude. Direct emissions varied from 480 to 38,000 Mg CO₂-eq./yr, where emissions per m³ waste in place ranged from 0.0004 to 0.013 Mg CO₂-eq./m³-yr and per ha of landfill area ranged from 4.8 to 1320 Mg CO₂-eq./ha-yr. Flux and emissions decreased as the cover soils varied from coarser to finer materials, clay content of cover soils increased, and with increasing composite parameters representing combined void ratio and cover thickness, total cover solids, and combined gas-phase tortuosity and thickness. These parameters and the associated numerical thresholds identified in this paper can be used to inform improved engineering design, construction, and operations of landfill covers to mitigate gas emissions and limit climate change effects from landfills.     

Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.     

Estimating the impacts of climate change and urbanization on building performance

Over the past 15 years, much scientific work has been published on the potential human impacts on climates. For their Third Assessment Report in 2001, the United Nations International Programme on Climate Change developed a set of economic development scenarios, which were then run with the four major general circulation models (GCM) to estimate the anthropogenesis-forced climate change. These GCMs produce worldwide grids of predicted monthly temperature, cloud, and precipitation deviations from the period 1961–1990. As this period is the same used for several major typical meteorological year data sets, these typical data sets can be used as a starting point for modifying weather files to represent predicted climate change. Over the past 50 years, studies of urban heat islands (UHI) or urbanization have provided detailed measurements of the diurnal and seasonal patterns and differences between urban and rural climatic conditions. While heat islands have been shown to be a function of both population and microclimatic and site conditions, they can be generalized into a predictable diurnal and seasonal pattern. Although the scientific literature is full of studies looking at the impact of climate change driven by human activity, there is very little research on the impact of climate change or urban heat islands on building operation and performance across the world. This article presents the methodology used to create weather files which represent climate change scenarios in 2100 and heat island impacts today. For this study, typical and extreme meteorological weather data were created for 25 locations (20 climate regions) to represent a range of predicted climate change and heat island scenarios for building simulation. Then prototypical small office buildings were created to represent typical, good, and low-energy practices around the world. The simulation results for these prototype buildings provide a snapshot view of the potential impacts of the set of climate scenarios on building performance. This includes location-specific building response, such as fuel swapping as heating and cooling ratios change, impacts on environmental emissions, impacts on equipment use and longevity comfort issues, and how low-energy building design incorporating renewables can significantly mitigate any potential climate variation. In this article, examples of how heat island and climate change scenarios affect diurnal patterns are presented as well as the annual energy performance impacts for three of the 25 locations. In cold climates, the net change to annual energy use due to climate change will be positive – reducing energy use on the order of 10% or more. For tropical climates, buildings will see an increase in overall energy use due to climate change, with some months increasing by more than 20% from current conditions. Temperate, mid-latitude climates will see the largest change but it will be a swapping from heating to cooling, including a significant reduction of 25% or more in heating energy and up to 15% increase in cooling energy. Buildings which are built to current standards such as ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004 will still see significant increases in energy demand over the twenty-first century. Low-energy buildings designed to minimize energy use will be the least affected, with impacts in the range of 5–10%. Unless the way buildings are designed, built, and operated changes significantly over the next decades, buildings will see substantial operating cost increases and possible disruptions in an already strained energy supply system.     

Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “A1B” storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.