How is demand for natural gas determined across European industrial sectors?

This paper estimates the response of manufacturing sectors’ natural gas demand to price and output changes. The average response to future changes in absolute and relative prices of the manufacturing industry in an OECD country depends on the mix of manufacturing industries, particularly with respect to energy intensity and substitution opportunities in production. We estimate short and long run demand elasticities using a shrinkage estimator, which allows heterogeneous demand responses across industries for each country. Our results show that price and output elasticities are heterogeneous within the same manufacturing sector across countries. Furthermore, an output contraction due to e.g. demand shocks will generally have larger negative effects on gas demand than increases in natural gas prices.     

Lost carbon emissions: the role of non-manufacturing “other industries” and refining in industrial energy use and carbon emissions in IEA countries

We present a review of trends in energy use and output in branches of industry not often studied in detail: petroleum refining and what we call the other industries — agriculture, mining, and construction. From a sample of IEA countries we analyze eight with the most complete data from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s. We carry out a decomposition analysis of changes in energy use and carbon emissions in the “other industries” sector. We also review briefly the impact of including refining in the evolution of manufacturing energy use, usually studied without refining. Despite many data problems, we present our results as a way of enticing others to study these important “lost” sectors more carefully. We have five basic findings. First, “other industries” tends to be a minor consumer of energy in many countries, but in some, particularly Denmark, the US, and Australia, mining or agriculture can be a major sector too large to be overlooked. Second, refining is an extremely energy intensive industry which despite a relatively low share of value added consumes as much as 20% of final energy use in manufacturing. Third, as a result of a slower decline in the carbon-intensity of these industries vis-à-vis the manufacturing industries, their share of industrial emissions has been rising. Fourth, for other industries variation in per capita output plays a relatively small role in differentiating per capita carbon emissions compared to the impact of subsectoral energy intensities. Finally, including this energy in CO₂ calculations has little impact on overall trends, but does change the magnitude of emissions in most countries significantly. Clearly, these industries provide important opportunities for searching for carbon emissions reductions.     

信息化要素与能源要素之间的关系研究

关于信息化要素与能源要素关系的研究还相对较少。本文选取了27个行业1986～2012年的数据对两者之间的关系进行了验证。检验结果显示,我们国家从80年代中期至今,信息化资本要素与能源要素之间呈现互补关系。有6个行业,分别是普通机械制造业、电气电子机械制造业、运输设备制造业、交通运输仓储及邮电通讯业、电力、批发和零售贸易及餐饮业,在这些行业中信息化要素与能源要素之间呈现替代关系;其余行业中,信息化要素与能源要素之间呈现互补关系。     

CO2 emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry: A decomposition analysis

In this study, CO₂ emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry are calculated by using the fuel consumption data at ISIC revision 2, four digit level. Study covers 57 industries, for the 1995–2001 period. Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to decompose the changes in the CO₂ emissions of manufacturing industry into five components; changes in activity, activity structure, sectoral energy intensity, sectoral energy mix and emission factors. Mainly, it is found that changes in total industrial activity and energy intensity are the primary factors determining the changes in CO₂ emissions during the study period. It is also indicated that among the fuels used, coal is the main determining factor and among the sectors, 3710 (iron and steel basic industries) is the dirtiest sector dominating the industrial CO₂ emissions in the Turkish manufacturing industry.     

Analysing energy intensity trends and decoupling of growth from energy use in Indian manufacturing industries during 1973–1974 to 2011–2012

This paper has two research objectives: first, it derives and analyses energy intensity trends for seven energy intensive manufacturing industries and the aggregate manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973–1974 to 2011–2012 and compares the same with best practice benchmarks. Second, based on Index Decomposition Analysis, it studies the extent to which the energy efficiency has contributed in the decoupling of industrial activity growth from growth in energy use. The study finds faster decline in energy intensity in all the seven industries during the recent years (1998–1999 to 2011–2012). Aluminium, cement and fertilizer industries are found to operate close to the global best-practice energy intensities with transformational changes in process technology. Iron and steel and pulp and paper are found to be lagging behind with only incremental transformation in technology in place. The decomposition results show that activity growth is the major driver of growth in energy demand with marginal impact coming from structural change. However, declining energy intensity has been able to neutralize a major portion of the growing energy demand resulting in decoupling trends, especially in recent years, with more energy efficiency-related voluntary and mandatory policies in place).     

Analysis on energy intensive industries under Taiwan's climate change policy

This study addresses the planning and implementation of energy, industry, and carbon economy policies concerning the development of the Taiwan's energy intensive industries from perspective of climate change. As a newly industrialized country, Taiwan attaches greater importance to the development of green energy and low-carbon industries, in cooperation with global pressure for carbon reduction due to climate changes, through energy and industrial conferences. Thus, in the past year the Taiwanese government constructed four laws concerning energy and carbon reduction in order to drive the green energy industry; furthermore, it plans to reduce current carbon emission benchmarks. Nevertheless, statistical analysis found that in the last decade, energy intensive industries have presented structural unbalance regarding energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, contributions to the GDP, and product value. Industries in the industrial sector have high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and increase total domestic consumption and carbon emissions, which have disproportionate contributions to industrial added value; nevertheless, the government continues to approve investments for such energy intensive industries, and results in continuous increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions. This contradictory phenomenon indicates that newly industrialized countries rely on a manufacturing economic structure, which is difficult to adjust and violates the trends of a global low-carbon economy. Hence, the government must examine and adjust such unbalanced industrial structures, where such adjustments are executed in a fair and just manner, and encourage the development of high value-added measures for low-carbon manufacturing and service sectors to become equal with competitors in a global economy.     

Energy use efficiency in the Indian manufacturing sector: An interstate analysis

This paper approaches the measurement of energy efficiency from a production theoretic framework and uses Data Envelopment Analysis to measure energy efficiency in the Indian manufacturing sector. Using data from the Annual Survey of Industries for the years 1998–99 through 2003–04, the study compares the energy efficiency in manufacturing across states, based on several models. The results show considerable variation in energy efficiency across states. Comparing the results across our models, we find that the relative pricing of energy does not provide the appropriate incentives for energy conservation. A second-stage regression analysis reveals that states with a larger share of manufacturing output in energy-intensive industries have lower energy efficiency. Also, higher quality labor force associates with higher energy efficiency. Finally, the power sector reforms have not yet had any significant impact on achieving energy efficiency.     

The energy transition of the transition economies: An empirical analysis

The aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia had declined by 35% during 1998–2008. This study reveals a strong evidence of convergence: less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross-country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time. An index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities. Income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence. They dominated the impact of trade, which led to specialization in energy intensive industries.     

The non-energy intensive manufacturing sector.: An energy analysis relating to the Netherlands

This paper focuses on an area that has been neglected in energy analysis: the non-energy intensive industries. Using data at the 3-digit level for the Dutch manufacturing industry, we analyzed the performance of the sector with respect to its energy intensity, value added, value of production and energy costs. We found that energy consumption has increased by 30% between 1988 and 1999 while there has not been a decrease on energy intensity. A decomposition analysis was performed in order to separate structural, production and intensity effects. We found that structural changes played a minor role and that in fact, intensity effects added further energy requirements to those induced by output growth. The results of our study highlight the need for policy-makers and scientists to increase their attention to the non-energy intensive sector and encourage industries in these sectors to adopt energy-efficient technologies and management practices.     

Acid rain control and United States energy policy

The U.S. Congress is currently considering whether to legislate a control program to reduce the perceived effects of acid rain. The effects of such a program would be costly, wide-ranging and would have important implications for the development of U.S. energy policy over the next several decades. The proposals call for reductions of between 30 and 50% in emissions of SO₂ in the eastern U.S. Costs of achieving these reductions are estimated to be in the range of $4–12 billion annually over the next 20 yr or so. In addition to the obvious economic impacts, there will be major energy implications, arising from shifts in the patterns of U.S. coal production and consumption; coal resource, transportation and employment effects; electricity price increases; changes in electric utility system mix; effects on manufacturing industries; and penetration of innovative energy technology. The anticipated effects of acid rain control programs in these areas are discussed, together with creative new ways to address the acid rain issue, including targeted control strategies, emissions bubbling and early retirement.     

Purchased energy and policy impacts in the US manufacturing sector

The US manufacturing sector, which consists of industries that produce durable and nondurable goods, accounts for about 30 % of all the final energy consumed in the country. In this study, manufacturing sector data coming primarily from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers are used to estimate the total impact of one mode of energy efficiency policy, market persuasion programs, on aggregate electricity consumption and energy expenditures. Using a panel model consisting of data for 184 industries, the findings indicate that the cumulative effects since 2002 of this policy mode is a reduction in 2010 electricity consumption of 5.4 %, of electricity expenditures of 2.4 %, and of all other fuel expenditures of 5.7 %. These estimates are derived after controlling for changes in output, other production inputs, and economic conditions. Particular attention in this study is given to the effects of a permanent shift in demand, and temporary business cycle shock, on model external validity.     

Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth

This paper decomposes US energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors: activity, structure, and intensity. For this study we use a bottom-up methodology, by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors: travel, freight, manufacturing industries, non-manufacturing industries, residential, and services. The most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy, the ratio of energy consumed to unit of GDP (E/GDP) created can often be misleading. The rapid decline in the E/GDP ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies. However, our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970. The decline in the E/GDP ratio in the mid- to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities.     

The effects of energy price on energy intensity: evidence from Canadian manufacturing sector

This study provides estimates for the long-run elasticity of energy intensity with respect to energy price in Canadian manufacturing industries. The time-series properties of the data are investigated using panel unit root, and the long-run relationships are ascertained based on panel co-integration tests. Estimation of long-run elasticities is then conducted using panel error correction and panel fully modified ordinary least square (PFMOLS) methods. The estimated long-run elasticity is in the tune of ?0.4 for the overall manufacturing sector, but there is significant variation across the industries.     

不同碳达峰时点选择下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响——以广东省为例

中国提出2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标将对全社会经济发展、能源消费带来深刻的变革。通过构建广东省气候-经济-环境-健康综合评估模型(ICEEH-GD),设计了如期达峰(2030年达峰)和率先达峰(2025年达峰)两个情景,研究不同碳达峰时点下的投资结构变化和经济社会影响。结果表明,率先达峰情景促进全社会投资从电力、水泥、油品开采、焦炭、钢铁等低增加值高碳排放部门转向服务业、电子信息、机械制造、建筑业、化工业等高增加值低碳排放部门,投资量总计转移了819亿元,带动相关部门的增加值增长135亿元。率先达峰情景强化对电力、水泥、钢铁、陶瓷等高碳排放行业的限制,在2030年全社会就业岗位比如期达峰情景增加82000人,但全省国内生产总值(GDP)比如期达峰情景减少424亿元,占届时全省GDP总量的0.242%。到2030年,率先达峰情景比如期达峰情景降低CO₂排放7 610万t和节约能源消费2 535万t标准煤,其中碳减排和节能贡献部门主要来自电力、水泥、钢铁、石油开采、陶瓷行业,分别占全社会碳减排量和节能量的65.0%和74.3%。从投资与增加值、就业、碳...     

Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in Swedish manufacturing industries

This paper analyses the trends in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions as a result of energy efficiency improvements in Swedish manufacturing industries between 1993 and 2008. Using data at the two-digit level, the performance of this sector is studied in terms of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, energy efficiency measured as energy intensity, value of production, fuel sources, energy prices and energy taxes. It was found that energy consumption, energy intensity and CO₂ emission intensity, measured as production values, have decreased significantly in the Swedish manufacturing industries during the period studied. The results of the decomposition analysis show that output growth has not required higher energy consumption, leading to a reduction in both energy and CO₂ emission intensities. The role of structural changes has been minor, and the trends of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions have been similar during the sample period. A stochastic frontier model was used to determine possible factors that may have influenced these trends. The results demonstrate that high energy prices, energy taxes, investments and electricity consumption have influenced the reduction of energy and CO₂ emission intensities, indicating that Sweden has applied an adequate and effective energy policy. The study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development whilst also reducing the pressure on resources and energy consumption and promoting the shift towards a low-carbon economy.     

Climate policy impacts on the competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors

This study examines the impacts of energy price changes resulting from different carbon-pricing policies on the competitiveness of selected US energy-intensive industries. It further examines possible industry responses, and identifies and provides a preliminary evaluation of potential opportunities to mitigate these impacts. The industry sectors investigated – steel, aluminum, chemicals and paper – are among the largest industrial users of fossil fuels in the US economy. The results of this examination show that climate policies that put a price on carbon could have substantial impacts on the competitiveness of US energy-intensive manufacturing sectors over the next two decades, if climate regulations are applied only in the United States, and no action is taken to invest in advanced low- and no-carbon technologies. The extent of these impacts will vary across industries, depending on their energy intensities, the mix of energy sources they rely on and how energy is used in production activities (heat and power, feedstock). Of relevance is also the speed and rigor with which industries adopt new technologies and retire (or replace) old ones. Other factors affecting these impacts include an industry's vulnerability to foreign imports and its ability to pass through cost increases to its customers in the face of international market competition.     

CO2 emissions reduction of Chinese light manufacturing industries: A novel RAM-based global Malmquist–Luenberger productivity index

Climate change has become one of the most challenging issues facing the world. Chinese government has realized the importance of energy conservation and prevention of the climate changes for sustainable development of China's economy and set targets for CO₂ emissions reduction in China. In China industry contributes 84.2% of the total CO₂ emissions, especially manufacturing industries. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity (MP) index are the widely used mathematical techniques to address the relative efficiency and productivity of a group of homogenous decision making units, e.g. industries or countries. However, in many real applications, especially those related to energy efficiency, there are often undesirable outputs, e.g. the pollutions, waste and CO₂ emissions, which are produced inevitably with desirable outputs in the production. This paper introduces a novel Malmquist–Luenberger productivity (MLP) index based on directional distance function (DDF) to address the issue of productivity evolution of DMUs in the presence of undesirable outputs. The new RAM (Range-adjusted measure)-based global MLP index has been applied to evaluate CO₂ emissions reduction in Chinese light manufacturing industries. Recommendations for policy makers have been discussed.     

Employment trends in the U.S. Electricity Sector, 2008–2012

Between 2008–2012, electricity generated (GWh) from coal, the longtime dominant fuel for electric power in the US, declined 24%, while electricity generated from natural gas, wind and solar grew by 39%, 154%, and 400%, respectively. These shifts had major effects on domestic employment in those sectors of the coal, natural gas, wind and solar industries involved in operations and maintenance (O&M) activities for electricity generation. Using an economic input–output model, we estimate that the coal industry lost more than 49,000 jobs (12%) nationally over the five-year period, while in the natural gas, solar, and wind industries, employment increased by nearly 175,000 jobs (21%). We also combine published ratios for jobs per unit of fuel production and per megawatt of power plant capacity with site-specific data on fuel production and power plant retirements, additions and capacity changes to estimate and map direct job changes at the county level. The maps show that job increases in the natural gas, solar and wind industries generally did not occur where there were significant job losses in the coal industry, particularly in West Virginia and Kentucky.     

Input substitution in Thailand's manufacturing sector: Implications for energy policy

Input demand and substitution elasticities for five manufacturing sector industries in Thailand are estimated using a three-factor (capital, labour and energy) translog cost function covering the first oil-shock period 1974–1977. In all cases the demand is elastic for energy, close to unity for labour, and inelastic for capital. Capital and energy are always substitutes as are capital and labour. The labour-intensive and comparative- advantage-based industries showed greater responsiveness to energy price changes relative to the capital-intensive and protected industries in the sense that the former two can substitute capital and labour for energy whereas the latter two can substitute only capital.     

1998～2007年我国制造业族群能源消费分析

将我国制造业分为4个族群，介绍了1998～2007年10年间4个族群的能源消费情况，分析了该期间4个族群能源消费特征，即：第一族群能耗量最多，且呈增长趋势，是降低能源消费的重点；第二族群也应重视；第三、四族群中的个别行业可相应给予关注。分析了影响制造业能源消费的主要因素，对今后一段时间我国制造业族群能源消费及产业发展提出了建议．