煤层气勘探开发一体化经济评价模型

我国目前还处于煤层气商业开发初期,经济评价刚刚起步,迫切需要根据我国煤层气开发的行业政策,建立煤层气经济评价的方法体系,为煤层气大规模开发提供决策依据.根据煤层气开发工程的特点及中国煤层气勘探开发现状,提出一套较为完整的适合于我国的煤层气开发项目的经济评价模型.分别从固定资产投资、采气成本预测、税收以及销售收入等方面作了详细论述.采用财务内部收益率、财务净现值、投资回收期、投资利润率和投资利税率5个经济指标评价煤层气商业开发的可行性.     

煤层气项目经济评价方法及应用研究

采用复杂系统“定性与定量相结合的综合集成方法”的思路,系统研究了煤层气项目经济评价方法。采用层次分析和模糊决策相结合的方法,对晋城区煤层气项目的经济性进行了综合评价。研究结果表明,评价区煤层气项目经济效益好,潜在的经济效益和开发前景是非常乐观的,评价结果可为决策部门提供参考依据。     

非线性井底流压条件下煤层气试验井产能预测模型及应用

为了探索水力压裂条件下焦作"三软"(软煤、软顶和软底)矿区低渗煤层煤层气渗透机理及产出规律,首先基于储层压裂缝扩展模型,根据压裂后裂缝孔隙度与渗透率的关系,建立了储层压裂渗透模型,着重考虑了井底流压的非线性动态变化对煤层气产出的影响,建立了产能预测模型,并进行了试验单井的应用及分析;其次,根据压裂缝几何参数与井底流压,计算得到试验期理论产气量,通过历史拟合法将试验期实采数据、试验期理论产出及试验期模拟产出3者进行对比分析,从而验证了产能预测模型的正确性;最后,结合相关参数,运用产能预测模型对矿区GW-002试验井进行生产期2 450 d的产能预测及经济评价期内的采收率计算。结果表明,该试验井生产期内平均日产气量可达587 m~3,累计产气量可达1.05×10~6 m~3,经济评价期内采收率可达32.86%,满足了煤层气开采技术要求。研究成果可用于指导"三软"矿区煤层气井压裂抽采实践与产能预测。     

基于折现现金流法的煤层气开发经济评价方法研究

为解决目前煤层气开发项目经济评价平均化、一般化的问题,根据煤层气储层非均质性强、生产阶段性差异大、参数不确定性强等特点,引入分层分区评价、分阶段评价、动态评价3种差异化分析方法对折现现金流法进行改进,分别对产量、操作费及价格进行精细刻画,评价结果内部收益率IRR低于基准收益率8%,揭示了项目投资风险.不确定性分析结果显示,对煤层气开发经济性的影响,产量为最敏感因素,价格其次,投资次之,操作费影响最小;上述参数每增加10%,IRR分别变化1.30%,1.14%,-0.47%,-0.26%.基于非常规天然气的共性,上述方法也可用于页岩气及致密气经济评价.     

低渗透油藏多因素产能预测模型

产能预测是开发方案设计的重要依据,是项目经济评价的基础.低渗透油藏强烈的固/液界面作用使流体的流动具有非达西渗流特征,裂缝发育使其应力敏感性程度更为强烈,针对渗透油藏的地质特征,研究其产能预测方法.从低渗透油藏地质特征出发,在分析其特殊的渗流规律、开发特征的基础上,建立同时考虑启动压力、应力敏感效应及增产措施的多因素产能预测模型,对低渗透油藏油井生产能力的评估、合理工作制度的制定提供依据.     

盲数在投资项目经济评价中的应用

本文结合传统投资项目经济评价方法，利用盲数理论，对项目的经济可行性进行了分析，并给出新的投资经济评价方法．     

房地产项目可行性研究报告编制及评估要点

前期可行性研究报告的编制与评估是房地产项目开发成败的关键环节之一。为规范房地产开发项目经济评价工作,建设部在2000年9月颁布了《房地产开发项目经济评价方法》。为配合“评价方法”的实施,建设部标准定额研究所征集选择了四个具有代表性的房地产开发案例,汇编成《房地产开发项目经济评价案例》一书。案例均包含了房地产开发项目经济评价必须的基本要素,其中的主要案例——“房地产开发项目可行性研究报告案例,则主要介绍了房地产开发前期可行性研究和项目评估方面的内容,编者从投资项目可行性研究及评估的角度,指明该案例“在目前有关…     

基于灰色预测模型的煤层气储层产气量动态变化预测研究

以沁水盆地某研究区的排采资料为基础,围绕煤层气储层产气量动态变化预测技术开展研究.煤层气开采过程是一个非常复杂的系统,其产气量受煤层气储层自身特性和排采制度等多种因素的影响,是各种影响因素综合作用的结果,是开采过程中系统内在变化的反映.可以通过研究煤层气产量的历史数据,挖掘产气量随时间变化的内在规律,并对未来的产气量进行预测.基于煤层气储层产气量的历史数据,通过建立灰色预测模型预测煤层气储层产气量的动态变化,并通过实际产气量数据验证,对于产量波动小、峰值明显、稳产时间长的煤层气储层,灰色预测模型在对产气量进入递减阶段的动态变化进行预测时效果较好.     

建设项目经济评价的决策系统

根据国家计委和建筑站联合颁布的《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》有关规定，开发了建设项目经济评价决策系统。该系统适用于新建、改扩建和项目后评估，具有较大的实用价值。     

基于经济增长的高速公路诱增交通量预测

诱增交通量预测是道路交通量预测的一部分,它对项目的经济评价有重大影响,同时也直接关系到道路技术标准的选用及道路投入运营后的管理.论文通过对诱增交通量产生机理的分析,总结其发展变化分为聚集形成、快速增长和逐渐稳定三个阶段,在此基础上提出了一种基于经济增长量的高速公路诱增交通量经济预测模型,在模型中首先给出了诱增交通量预测步骤,然后详细地描述了预测步骤中初期诱增交通量确定方法、交通区经济增长量的预测和诱增交通量经济预测模型,最后通过对京哈高速公路黑龙江段的实例计算,验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于逐回归分析的瓦斯含量预测研究

为了解各影响因素对煤层瓦斯赋存特征的影响,准确预测煤层瓦斯含量,在潘三矿勘探钻孔资料的基础上,运用线性统计规律和瓦斯地质因素分析方法,确定影响11-2煤层瓦斯含量分布的主要控制因素有煤层埋藏深度、地质构造、砂泥比、煤层厚度和倾角;利用逐回归分析建立煤层瓦斯含量预测模型,并结合实际数据,对预测模型进行检验与误差分析。结果显示,模型预测精确度高,验证了基于逐步回归分析方法的预测模型的可靠性,具有很好的实用价值。     

Application of structural curvature of coalbed floor on CBM development in the Zaoyuan block of the southern Qinshui Basin

Based on controls of structural style and the position in coalbed methane(CBM)development,we used a method of curvatures to study its relations with CBM development parameters.We calculated structural curvatures of contours of the No.3coal seam floor of the Shanxi Formation in the Zaoyuan block of the Qinshui Basin and analyzed its relations with development parameters of coalbed methane wells.The results show that structural curvature is negatively related to coal reservoir pressure,while positively related to permeability.With an increase in structural curvature,the average production of coalbed methane wells increases at first and then decreases,reaching the highest production at 0.02 m-1 of structural curvature.Therefore,structural curvature can be an important index for potential evaluation of coalbed methane development and provide a basis for siting coalbed methane wells.     

Method for predicting economic peak yield for a single well of coalbed methane

The development of coalbed methane (CBM) in China poses great difficulties because of high investments, low production and high risks. So a study of the economic effect of a single well at its preliminary stage is helpful for commercial exploitation of CBM. Affected by wellbore flow pressure, initial reservoir pressure, relative permeability, Langmuir pressure and other factors,the trend of declining production of a single CBM well agrees, by and large, with a hyperbolic pattern of decline. Based on Arps'sequation, nearly 200 wells production with different peak yields and initial rates of were simulated. Given the present cost of drilling, gas production and engineering on the ground, the gross investment for the development of a single coalbed methane well was estimated for the Fanzhuang block in central China. Considering the current industrial policies for CBM, we established an economic assessment model and analyzed economic peaks. The results show the economic benefits with or without government subsidies at different peak yields of a single CBM well. The results of the evaluation can be directly applied in the Fanzhuang block. The evaluation method, formulated in our study, can be used to other areas with similar conditions.     

煤层气有限导流压裂井的压力动态分析

针对煤层气产出过程中的降压,解吸,扩散,渗流等特点,应用非稳态解吸模型;研究了煤层气在基质和割理中的单相流动;建立了新有有限导流压裂井评价模型;讨论了裂缝壁面表皮系数,吸附系数,裂缝储容系数和窜流系数对压力动态的影响;分析了煤层气压裂井的压降典型曲线特征和参数估计方法,从而为煤层气藏开发提供了可靠的数据。     

基于相控的煤层气藏三维地质建模

煤层气藏是一种非常规天然气藏,与常规天然气藏在赋存方式、物性参数以及开发方式等方面存在较大差异。煤层气藏三维地质模型能够精确描述煤层以及物性参数空间分布,推动煤层气藏的认识由定性向定量的转变,对煤层气藏的开发具有重要意义。以澳大利亚B区块煤层气藏为研究对象,综合应用地质、地震、测井、煤岩取芯分析等资料,分析构造解释的煤层层面、测井精细解释结果以及物性参数精细表征结果;借助Petrel三维地质建模软件,以地震解释煤层顶面构造和断层结果为数据基础,以测井煤层划分结果为约束条件,建立B区块构造模型;在构造建模基础上,以测井资料划分的单井岩相数据为基准,建立煤层相模型;煤层气藏物性参数建模以相控建模理论为指导,以煤层气物性参数表征结果为数据基础,实现干燥无灰基含气量、渗透率、密度、灰分含量、饱和度等物性参数空间分布模拟。在建立的三维地质模型基础上,利用煤层气藏储量计算方法,计算B区块地质储量,确定B区块煤层气有利区优选物性参数及标准,划分煤层气藏有利区。煤层气藏三维地质模型为煤层气藏地质储量计算以及有利区筛选奠定坚实的地质基础,同时也为井型选择与井网布置等后续开发工作提供地质依据。     

Evaluation and intelligent deployment of coal and coalbed methane coupling coordinated exploitation based on Bayesian network and cuckoo search

Coal and coalbed methane (CBM) coordinated exploitation is a key technology for the safe exploitation of both resources. However, existing studies lack the quantification and evaluation of the degree of coordination between coal mining and coalbed methane extraction. In this study, the concept of coal and coalbed methane coupling coordinated exploitation was proposed, and the corresponding evaluation model was established using the Bayesian principle. On this basis, the objective function of coal and coalbed methane coordinated exploitation deployment was established, and the optimal deployment was determined through a cuckoo search. The results show that clarifying the coupling coordinated level of coal and coalbed methane resource exploitation in coal mines is conducive to adjusting the deployment plan in advance. The case study results show that the evaluation and intelligent deployment method proposed in this paper can effectively evaluate the coupling coordinated level of coal and coalbed methane resource exploitation and intelligently optimize the deployment of coal mine operations. The optimization results demonstrate that the safe and efficient exploitation of coal and CBM resources is promoted, and coal mining and coalbed methane extraction processes show greater cooperation. The observations and findings of this study provide a critical reference for coal mine resource exploitation in the future.     

煤层气典型曲线产能预测方法

为简单快速预测煤层气井产能,引入了典型曲线-无因次产量与时间的关系曲线法.通过分析兰氏压力、兰氏体积和渗透率等对典型曲线形态的影响,建立了不同兰氏压力下无因次产量与时间的关系式,提出了煤层气井典型曲线产能预测方法.运用该方法分别对韩城和沁南区块两口煤层气井进行产量预测和储量评价.结果表明:预测产量与前5年的实际产量符合率高于80%,表明该方法可供现场应用.对生产数据进行拟合得出两口井的控制储量分别为2.40×107m3和2.29×107m3,预测未来10年采出程度分别为44.3%和46.3%.     

湖南煤层（瓦斯）气研究现状及开发利用前景

介绍了湖南省煤田地质概况，煤层气赋存规律及特征，矿井瓦斯抽放现状与效果，并对煤层气资源进行了初步评价。     

Exploitation technology of pressure relief coalbed methane in vertical surface wells in the Huainan coal mining area

Exploitation technology of pressure relief coalbed methane in vertical surface wells is a new method for exploration of gas and coalbed methane exploitation in mining areas with high concentrations of gas, where tectonic coal developed. Studies on vertical surface well technology in the Huainan Coal Mining area play a role in demonstration in the use of clean, new energy re-sources, preventing and reducing coal mine gas accidents and protecting the environment. Based on the practice of gas drainage engineering of pressure relief coalbed methane in vertical surface wells and combined with relative geological and exploration en-gineering theories, the design principles of design and structure of wells of pressure relief coaibed methane in vertical surface wells are studied. The effects of extraction and their causes are discussed and the impact of geological conditions on gas production of the vertical surface wells are analyzed. The results indicate that in mining areas with high concentrations of gas, where tectonic coal developed, a success rate of pressure relief coalbed methane in surface vertical well is high and single well production usually great. But deformation due to coal exploitation could damage boreholes and cause breaks in the connection between aquifers and bore-holes, which could induce a decrease, even a complete halt in gas production of a single well. The design of well site location and wellbore configuration are the key for technology. The development of the geological conditions for coalbed methane have a sig-nificant effect on gas production of coalbed methane wells.