The paradox of oil reserve forecasts: The political implications of predicting oil reserves and oil consumption

In the light of the outstanding importance of hydrocarbons for global energy, the controversy over peak oil has become both pressing and emotionally charged. Two conflicting parties – alarmists and optimists – hold irreconcilable positions. The shaping of the future energy policy is presently based on modeling results and geological considerations only. We show that the existing predictions of the energy crisis are increasingly mixed-up with value-judgments. The value analysis of those forecasts allows us to suggest that at least part of the estimations are implicit reflections of predictors’ ends and values, and do not demonstrate a real ability to anticipate future conditions. Paradoxically, the question of oil reserves depletion is better understood when predictions are viewed as an instrument to impose the predictors’ values and intervene in the currently bustling oil market. The intervention in the oil prices may occur in either direction becoming a tool to justify values rather than an instrument for the acquisition of knowledge.     

The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy

This paper analyses the impact of oil price shocks on both the GDP growth and on inflation in the economy of Spain and its seventeen regions. The Qu and Perron (2007) and the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a and 2003b) methods identify different periods across the sample. Evidence of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on GDP growth and on inflation is found from the 1970s until the mid 1980s. However, in contrast with previous literature, we find a renewed effect on both these macroeconomic variables after the mid 80s. In Spain, it recovers some of its initial importance in the second half of the 1990s for GDP and between 1986 and 1994 and the 2000s for inflation. In the regions, the influence of oil price shocks on the GDP progressively disappears while the impact on inflation decreases from 1986 onwards but becomes significant again ten years later. The most outstanding result is that oil price movements explain at least some of the recent inflation. Therefore, policy measures to control the economic impact of oil shocks should be implemented in the future.     

The impact of tax reform on new car purchases in Ireland

We examine the impact of recent tax reforms in Ireland on private car transport and its greenhouse gas emissions. A carbon tax was introduced on fuels, and purchase (vehicle registration) and ownership (motor) taxes were switched from engine size to potential emissions. We use a demographic model of the car stock (by age, size, and fuel) and a car purchase model that reflects the heterogeneous distribution of mileage and usage costs across various engine sizes. The model shows a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars, particularly for large engines. The same pattern is observed in the latest data on car sales. This has a substantial impact on tax revenue as car owners shift to the lower tax rates. The tax burden has shifted from car ownership to car use, and that the overall tax burden on private car transport falls. As diesel engines are more fuel efficient than petrol engines, carbon dioxide emissions fall modestly or, if we consider the rebound effect of travel costs on mileage, minimally. From the perspective of the revenue, the costs per tonne of carbon dioxide avoided are (very) high.     

GCD-470型重型轨道车

介绍了新型电传动重型轨道车的总体布置、主要技术参数、动力装置、传动系统、车体、制动系统、走行部、型式试验及考核运行等。     

The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves

We formulate a model of shale oil development that identifies how much of the U.S. resource base is likely to be economically viable at various price levels, and what share of potential drilling sites are likely to be exploited. The analysis is driven by the lognormal variability in productivity of individual wells. We find the volume of reserves to be highly inelastic with respect to price. The number of viable drilling sites is less inelastic, which may explain why reserve additions and production fell much less than drilling activity during the recent industry slump.     

The Iranian crisis — its impact on the price of oil

The simulations reported in this article show that if the present shortfall in oil supply is made good solely by price rises, the required price for 1979 that would clear the market is $16.51 per barrel (corresponding to a 30% increase over the 1978 price of $12.70). The dynamic response of oil consumption to a shock of a 40% increase in oil prices during 1979 is traced up to 1985. Contrasted against the base case of a 10% price rise, the model predicts that the share of oil to total energy could be cut by up to 3 percentage points over the next seven years.     

Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable (‘2P’) oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close.

Many analysts who rely only on proved (‘1P’) oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to ‘turn resources into reserves’. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA.

In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return.     

The impact of the first oil crisis on energy demand in Korea

This paper investigates how the first oil crisis affected energy demand in Korea. First, annual growth rates in energy consumptions for pre-and post-crisis periods are compared. Second, the price and income elasticities of energy sources estimated from the 1961–1972 and 1961–1976 observations are compared. Third, F-test is performed with an oil demand equation to see whether a structural change in oil demand occurred after the first oil crisis. The author concludes that the impact of the first oil crisis in Korea was not serious enough to cause a structural change in oil demand.     

NYJ1型动车构架裂纹分析与处理方案

介绍了NYJ1型动车构架裂纹概况,分析了裂纹产生的原因,确定了处理方案,使构架裂纹得到修复。     

The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on unemployment in the United States

This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in unemployment, the volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.     

轴箱悬挂参数对高速动车动力学性能的影响

以采用转臂式轴箱定位的某型高速动车组为原形,通过多刚体动力学软件SIMPACK建立了完整的动力学模型,着重分析了一系纵、横、垂向刚度的变化对动车组稳定性、平稳性及曲线通过性能的影响。通过各参数的优化分析,发现合理的参数配置可以实现高速稳定性与曲线通过性能的理想配置,充分体现了轴箱转臂式定位的优越性。在仿真中,轮轨接触采用LMA踏面与Rail60kg／m钢轨的匹配,轨道不平顺采用德国高速低干扰线路轨道谱。     

轨道动车组头车耐撞击结构模块化设计研究

探讨了在轨道车辆动车组头车的耐撞击结构设计的基础上,应用模块化技术进行耐撞击车辆结构模块化的设计思路。最后,以某城市轨道车辆头车为例,通过应用有限元法对耐撞击车辆的模块化结构进行的计算机仿真,验证了轨道车辆耐撞击结构模块化设计的可行性。     

摆式动车组流线型司机室钢结构设计

简述了摆式动车组流线型司机室的设计,重点介绍了司机室钢结构流线设计。设计中采用了模块化理念,确保司机室钢结构的精确性及内外的和谐统一。     

The impact of price variation on the production of crude oil and natural gas

This paper is directed at examining the impact of changing prices on the level of production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States. By using a cross correlation test for unidirectional causality, it is clearly demonstrated that for both crude oil and natural gas, domestic production is affected by changing prices. The implications are clear. The decontrol of the price of crude oil and the deregulation of natural gas prices will lead to additional production in the near term.     

Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China

As China’ largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0 million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3 million in the base case scenario and 3033.3 million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6 million tons in 2007 to 8.0 million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields.     

The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach

This paper uses Markov-switching models to investigate the impact of oil shocks on real exchange rates for a sample of oil exporting and oil importing countries. This is an important topic to study because an oil shock can affect a country's terms of trade which can affect its competitiveness. We detect significant exchange rate appreciation pressures in oil exporting economies after oil demand shocks. We find limited evidence that oil supply shocks affect exchange rates. Global economic demand shocks affect exchange rates in both oil exporting and importing countries, though there is no systematic pattern of appreciating and depreciating real exchange rates. The results lend support to the presence of regime switching for the effects of oil shocks on real exchange rates.     

The impact of oil prices on bioenergy,emissions and land use

We evaluate how alternative future oil prices will influence the penetration of biofuels, energy production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and other outcomes. Our analysis employs a global economy wide model and simulates alternative oil prices out to 2050 with and without a price on GHG emissions. In one case considered, based on estimates of available resources, technological progress and energy demand, the reference oil price rises to $124 by 2050. Other cases separately consider constant reference oil prices of $50, $75 and $100, which are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. In our simulations, higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production, more land being used for bioenergy crops, and fewer GHG emissions. Reducing oil resources to simulate higher oil prices has a strong income effect, so decreased food demand under higher oil prices results in an increase in land allocated to natural forests. We also find that introducing a carbon price reduces the differences in oil use and GHG emissions across oil price cases.     

The impact of the oil crisis associated with the Persian Gulf conflict on the United States

This paper analyzes the effects of the Persian Gulf conflict on the level of economic activity, employment and inflation in the United States. Impacts on other countries are not examined in this study. Many of the impacts are difficult to quantify objectively. One factor that can be subjected to analysis is the increase in US government expenditures associated with Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. The analytical results of the investigation suggest that the method of financing the increase does make a difference in how the US economy is affected. In two of the three cases considered (i.e. deficit financing and 80% financing by coalition partners), output, personal consumption expenditures, and disposable income increase, but these increases are partly associated with higher prices (i.e. inflation). In the third case (i.e. tax-offset scenario), output, personal consumption expenditures, and disposable income decline, but prices actually fall. Moreover, the magnitudes of the changes are directly proportional to the size of the expenditure increase.     

The impact of oil drilling on the behavioral intention of tourists: an empirical investigation

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the effect that several kinds of risks, associated with hypothetical oil drillings in the Canary Islands, could have on the behavioral intentions of tourists. A panel survey collected from 639 nonresident tourists about destination image, risk perception, and intention to visit or recommend the islands. The risks associated with the possible oil extractions significantly harming perceived image and behavioral intention by around 43%, with the intention to recommend being more affected than the intention to revisit. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to develop a theoretical model following a recent trend integrating the destination image and risk literatures. Results highlight the key role of perceived risk in creating destination image and provides evidence of the mediating role of image between risk and behavioral intention. The affective image component has a greater impact on behavioral intention than the cognitive one. The outcomes of this study point out the importance, for destination marketers and policymakers, of mitigating the effects of the risk derived from oil drilling. Emphasis is placed on the importance of information and promotion campaigns in which the safety of the destination is remarked.     

Estimates of oil and natural gas (NG) reserves in Egypt

Egypt depends mainly on oil and NG for 92% of total commercial energy needs. Reserve estimates are largely based on speculations. We give logistics functions for oil and NG production and consumption rates and reserves. An energy-flow diagram has been constructed for Egypt. Sectorial energy consumptions are also given. Estimates of reserves from logistic curves show that crude oil would last for about 24 yr and that NG will last for 150 yr with present production rates.