Clinical features, molecular genetics, and pathophysiology of dominant optic atrophy

CONTEXT: Russian life expectancy has fallen sharply in the 1990s, but the impact of the major causes of death on that decline has not been measured. OBJECTIVE: To assess the contribution of selected causes of death to the dramatic decline in life expectancy in Russia in the years following the breakup of the Soviet Union. DESIGN: Mortality and natality data from the vital statistics systems of Russia and the United States. SETTING: Russia, 1990-1994. POPULATION: Entire population of Russia. MAIN OUTCOME VARIABLES: Mortality rates, life expectancy, and contribution to change in life expectancy. METHODS: Application of standard life-table methods to calculate life expectancy by year, and a partitioning method to assess the contribution of specific causes of death and age groups to the overall decline in life expectancy. United States data presented for comparative purposes. RESULTS: Age-adjusted mortality in Russia rose by almost 33% between 1990 and 1994. During that period, life expectancy for Russian men and women declined dramatically from 63.8 and 74.4 years to 57.7 and 71.2 years, respectively, while in the United States, life expectancy increased for both men and women from 71.8 and 78.8 years to 72.4 and 79.0 years, respectively. More than 75% of the decline in life expectancy was due to increased mortality rates for ages 25 to 64 years. Overall, cardiovascular diseases (heart disease and stroke) and injuries accounted for 65% of the decline in life expectancy while infectious diseases, including pneumonia and influenza, accounted for 5.8%, chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis for 2.4%, other alcohol-related causes for 9.6%, and cancer for 0.7%. Increases in cardiovascular mortality accounted for 41.6% of the decline in life expectancy for women and 33.4% for men, while increases in mortality from injuries (eg, falls, occupational injuries, motor vehicle crashes, suicides, and homicides) accounted for 32.8% of the decline in life expectancy for men and 21.8% for women. CONCLUSION: The striking rise in Russian mortality is beyond the peacetime experience of industrialized countries, with a 5-year decline in life expectancy in 4 years' time. Many factors appear to be operating simultaneously, including economic and social instability, high rates of tobacco and alcohol consumption, poor nutrition, depression, and deterioration of the health care system. Problems in data quality and reporting appear unable to account for these findings. These results clearly demonstrate that major declines in health and life expectancy can take place rapidly.     

Induction of IgE antibody production in mice with different DPT-vaccine preparations

A historical cohort study was performed to assess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetic patients. The data were collected from 1967 to 1989 in four Dutch general practices performing the Continuous Morbidity Registration Nijmegen. Each newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetic patient fulfilling the WHO criteria (n = 265) was matched to a control patient for practice, sex, age, and social class. Inclusion started in 1967, the first year of the still ongoing, Continuous Morbidity Registration Nijmegen. On average, a follow-up of 6.8 years (range 1 month-22 years) was realized. Compared to the non-diabetic control patients, the Type 2 diabetic patients showed higher cardiovascular morbidity (risk ratio 1.76, 95% CI 1.34-2.30) and a higher mortality rate (risk ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.07-2.23). Mortality after 10 years was 36% vs 20% (p < 0.01), the median survival time 16 years vs 19 years. The cumulative survival rates were significantly different (p < 0.01) between patients and controls in the age group 65-74 years. The higher mortality in Type 2 diabetic patients was completely due to an excess of cardiovascular death (risk ratio 2.05, 95% CI 1.24-3.37).     

Incidence and prevalence of recognised and unrecognised myocardial infarction in women. The Reykjavik Study

AIMS: The incidence and prevalence of recognised and unrecognised myocardial infarction were determined in the Icelandic cohort study of 13,000 women (the Reykjavik Study), followed for up to 29 years (mean 15 years). METHODS AND RESULTS: Women attending the Reykjavik Study, born between 1908 and 1935, were examined in five stages from 1968 to 1991. A health survey included history and ECG manifestations of coronary heart disease. Data retrieved from hospitals, autopsy records and death certificates identified 596 fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarctions to the end of 1992 (61 prior to examination, 320 non-fatal and 215 fatal). The incidence of recognised myocardial infarction ranged from 22 cases/100,000/year at 35-39 years to 1800 cases/100,000/year at 75-79 years. The incidence of unrecognised myocardial infarction ranged from 18 cases/100,000/year at 35 years to 219 cases/100,000/year at 75 years. Thirty-three percent of non-fatal myocardial infarctions were unrecognised. More occurred in the younger age groups (40%) than in the older (27%). The prevalence of recognised myocardial infarction was influenced by age and calendar year. In 1990, it was 1.3/1,000 at 35 years and 60/1000 at 75 years. Prevalence showed a time trend, tripling in all age groups from 1968-1992. Fore unrecognised myocardial infarction, prevalence rose from 0.9/1000 at 35 years to 19.2/1000 at 75 years, although there was no evident time trend. CONCLUSION: Myocardial infarction in women is very age-dependent with both incidence and prevalence increasing continuously and steeply with age. There was a significant trend for an increase in prevalence of recognised myocardial infarction from 1968 to 1992. The proportion of unrecognised non-fatal infarctions ranged from 27% in the oldest age group to 40% in the youngest. On average, this form of coronary heart disease is as common as in men.     

The main causes of death in Spain, 1992; comment

BACKGROUND: To study the mortality from the leading causes of death in Spain in 1992 and trends since 1980. POPULATION AND METHOD: The number of deaths was obtained from mortality statistics. We included the 12 causes with the highest mortality rates in 1992 and calculated for each cause of death the age adjusted mortality rates for each year in the study period, the percent change from 1990 to 1992 and from 1980 to 1992, and the adjusted ratio of rates between men and women in 1992. RESULTS: The leading causes of death in 1992 were malignant neoplasms, with 24.3% of deaths and a mortality rate of 205.6 per 100,000 population; diseases of the heart, with 22.6% and a rate of 191.8 per 100,000; and cerebrovascular disease, with 12.7% and a rate of 107.6 per 100,000 population. Between 1980 and 1992 the adjusted mortality rate increased for four causes of death: malignant neoplasms; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and similar diseases; nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis; and suicide. From 1990 to 1992, the adjusted mortality rate declined for all other causes of death. From 1990 to 1992, the adjusted mortality rate declined for all causes of death except for malignant neoplasms and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which rose 0.4% and 69%, respectively. The adjusted mortality rate was higher in men than in women for all causes of death except for diabetes mellitus and atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: Except for malignant neoplasms and HIV infection, mortality from all other leading causes of death declined in 1992 with respect to 1990, independently of the trend experienced by each cause of death in the eighties.     

Trauma patients 75 years and older: long-term follow-up results justify aggressive management

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival rate and functional status after trauma for one of the fastest growing segments of the population, patients 75 years and older, is poorly documented. METHODS: Trauma patients 75 years and older who were discharged from our Level I trauma center between June 1988 and July 1992 (n = 279) were contacted by mail or phone. Public death records were used to identify patients who had died. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to determine predictors of poor outcome (death within 6 months). Main outcome measures included mortality and self-assessed functional status. RESULTS: A minimum 4-year follow-up was obtained for 81% of the 279 study patients. The mean follow-up period was 5.4 +/- 1.1 years. Mean age at time of injury was 81 +/- 5 years (range, 75-101 years); mean Injury Severity Score was 9.4 +/- 7.7. At follow-up, 132 patients (47%) had died, 93 patients (33%) were contacted, and 54 patients (19%) could not be located. Twelve percent of patients survived less than 6 months after discharge. Poor survival was predicted by preexisting diseases (dementia, p = 0.001; hypertension, p = 0.02; and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, p = 0.05) and not by age or severity of injury. The mean age of patients still living was 85 +/- 3.9 years (range, 79-99 years), and 77 of 93 patients were living in an independent setting (33 alone, 44 with spouse or family); of these, 57% reported no difficulties in performing 12 of 14 activities of daily living. CONCLUSION: Despite higher than expected mortality after discharge, aggressive management of trauma patients 75 years and older is justified by the favorable long-term outcome.     

Intra-urban variations in incidence and mortality in myocardial infarction. A study from the myocardial infarction register in the city of Malm?, Sweden

AIM: To assess to what extent intra-urban variations and time trends of mortality in ischaemic heart disease are related to incidence of disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Incidence and mortality data were retrieved from the myocardial infarction register in Malm?. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence varied between the 17 city areas from 469 to 681/10(5) (P=0.003), and mortality from 286 to 446/10(5) (P=0.017). Socio-demographic risk factors for ischaemic heart disease were more prevalent in high rate areas. About 70% of the variance in mortality was explained by the variance in incidence. From 1986 to 1992, incidence declined by 3.6%/year in men (P=0.004) and by 0.9%/year in women (P=0.31). Mortality decreased by 4.1%/year in men (P=0.01) and by 1.9%/year in women (P=0.15). Incidence and mortality changes were statistically significant only in men>65. In younger age groups, incidence and mortality decreased in men but increased in women. CONCLUSIONS: In this urban population, there were large intra-city differences in mortality from ischaemic heart disease. During the period 1986 1992 there was a parallel decline in mortality and incidence. There were, however, substantial variations both in terms of residence and subject.     

Importance of heart failure as a cause of death. Changing contribution to overall mortality and coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland 1979-1992

AIMS: As heart failure is a syndrome arising from another condition, such as coronary heart disease, it is rarely officially coded as the underlying cause of death regardless of the cause recorded by the physician at the time of certification. We sought to assess the true contribution of heart failure to overall mortality and coronary heart disease mortality and to examine how this contribution has changed over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: We carried out a retrospective analysis of all death certificates in Scotland between 1979 and 1992 for which heart failure was coded as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. From a total of 833622 deaths in Scotland between 1979 and 1992, heart failure was coded as the underlying cause in only 1.5% (13695), but as a contributory cause in a further 14.3% (126073). In 1979, 28.5% of male and 40.4% of female deaths attributed to coronary heart disease (coded as the underlying cause of death) also had a coding for heart failure. In 1992 these percentages had risen significantly to 34.1% and 44.8%, respectively (both P<0.001). Mortality rates for heart failure as the underlying or contributory cause of death, standardized by age and sex, fell significantly over the period studied in all ages and in both sexes: by 31% in men and 41% in women <65 years and 15.8% in men and 5.1% in women > or =65 years, respectively (P<0.01 for all changes). CONCLUSIONS: Death from heart failure is substantially underestimated by official statistics. Furthermore, one third or more of deaths currently attributed to coronary heart disease may be related to heart failure and this proportion appears to be increasing. While the absolute numbers of deaths caused by heart failure remains constant, this study is the first to show that standardized mortality rates are declining.     

Sociodemographic mortality differences among the oldest old in Finland

This study examined mortality differences and trends by several sociodemographic characteristics among the Finnish elderly aged 80 years or over during the period of 1971-90. The analyses were based on comprehensive data sets compiled by means of linking individual death records and census records for the entire population of Finland. Poisson regression was applied as the main statistical tool. For both sexes, life expectancy at age 80 was about 1 year longer among those with a higher education than among those with basic education. A similar difference was found between former upper nonmanual workers and manual workers. Slightly lower than average mortality was observed among the married, among those living in Western Finland, and among the Swedish-speaking population. Mortality declined during the study period in all subgroups, with no consistent signs of either convergence or divergence of mortality levels. The results suggest that at least some further decline of mortality even among the oldest old is possible.     

Age-period-cohort effects on ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden from 1969 to 1993, and forecasts up to 2003

AIMS: Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has been decreasing in most industrialized countries since the 1960s. The aim of this study was to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality during 1969-1993 in Sweden, and to predict mortality trends until 2003. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-period cohort models were used to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993, and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003. Mortality rates in the age group 25-89 years decreased from 719 to 487 per 100,000 for men, and from 402 to 215 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.5% for men and 2.2% for women). The decline started earlier for women than for men. The ratio of age-adjusted mortality between men and women increased steadily over the study period. Predictions based on the full age-period cohort model for the period 1999-2003 gave mortality rates of 346 and 155 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Despite the ageing of the population, the total numbers of ischaemic heart disease deaths in Sweden are predicted to decline by approximately 25% in both men and women from 1989-93 to 1999-2003. CONCLUSION: A major decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality has been observed in the last 15 years in Sweden. Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain information which helps explain the decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality is to continue.     

Survival experience of the population needing hospital treatment for asthma or COPD at age 50-54 years

The aim was to evaluate the differences of mortality among asthma and COPD patients on the basis of the first period of hospitalization of these diseases. A total of 576,916 treatment periods for asthma and COPD between 1972 and 1992 were identified in the discharge register maintained by the National Research and Development Centre for Welfare and Health. Patients aged 50-54 years first treated in hospital in 1977 or later were analysed. There were 6655 new asthma patients of this age, 2727 new COPD patients and 701 new patients in a mixed group (with both diagnoses). Mortality up to the end of 1993 was analysed based on mortality and cause of death data provided by the Central Statistical Office of Finland. Estimated cumulative survival after 10 yr was higher among the asthma patients (83.5% for men and 93.2% for women) and lower among the COPD patients (60.1% and 78.0%) and in the mixed group (62.5% and 74.4%). The main cause of death among the asthmatics was asthma in 12.1% of cases, that among the COPD patients was COPD in 22.1% of cases and that in the mixed group was one or other of these diseases in 39.1% of cases. The prognosis for COPD patients aged 50-54 years requiring hospital treatment is poor. Combination of the data available from the cause of death and hospital discharge registers indicates that obstructive pulmonary diseases may well be of more significance from a public health point of view than the mortality statistics would lead us to believe. The very first hospitalization for COPD calls for a thorough evaluation of the prospects for active treatment and prevention.     

Myocardial revascularisation in elderly patients with refractory or unstable angina and advanced coronary disease

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients with ischaemic heart disease are often treated more conservatively and for longer than younger patients, but this strategy may result in subsequent invasive intervention of more advanced and higher risk coronary disease. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 109 patients aged > or = 70 years (mean age 74 years, 66% men), who presented with angina refractory to maximal medical treatment or unstable angina over a 2-year period (1988-1990), to compare the relative risks and benefits of myocardial revascularisation [coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA)] in this higher-risk age group. RESULTS: Sixty patients underwent CABG and 49 patients PTCA. There were eight periprocedural deaths in total (six in the CABG group, and two in the PTCA group, P = 0.29). Six patients in the CABG group suffered a cerebrovascular accident (two fatal). Acute Q-wave myocardial infarction occurred in one patient in the CABG group and in two patients in the PTCA group. The length of hospital stay was longer for the CABG group (CABG group 11.4 +/- 5.4 days, range 7-30 days, PTCA group 7.4 +/- 7.6 days, range 1-39 days, P = 0.01). Outcome was assessed using the major cardiac event rate (MACE; i.e. the rate of death, myocardial infarction, repeat CABG or PTCA). The cumulative event-free survival in the CABG group in 1, 2 and 3 years was 87, 85 and 85%, respectively. In contrast, in the PTCA group it was 55, 48 and 48% (P = 0.0001). Age, sex, number of diseased vessels, degree of revascularisation and left ventricular function were not predictive of the recurrence of angina in both groups. Actuarial survival (total mortality, including perioperative mortality) was lower at 1 year in the CABG group due to the higher perioperative mortality, but similar in both groups after the second year (P = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients with refractory or unstable angina who are revascularised surgically have a better long-term outcome (less frequent event rate of the composite end-point--myocardial infarction, revascularisation procedures and death) compared with those who are revascularised with PTCA. This benefit is been realised after the second year. Total mortality is similar in both groups after the second year. Therefore elderly patients who are fit for surgery should not be denied the benefits of CABG. PTCA may be regarded as a complementary and satisfactory treatment, especially for those whose life expectancy is limited to less than 2 years. The use of stents may improve outcome in the PTCA group and this needs to be evaluated.     

Why is life expectancy a problem for the Danes? The influence of smoking during the last 50 years

The study quantifies the influence of smoking on mortality in Denmark and computes measures for the individual risk. Mortality due to lung cancer among Danish women is now the highest in Europe. Smoking-attributable deaths among men amounted to 3% in 1945, 26% in 1985, and 25% in 1995; the proportion is lower among women, but is increasing considerably. In 1995 in the age-group 35-69 years such deaths make up the same proportion among men and women. The risk that a 35-year old Dane dies before attaining the age of 70 due to other than smoking-attributable causes has decreased since 1945, most significantly among women. Women have experienced a considerable increase in smoking-attributable mortality over the last 20 years, increasing the total risk of a 35 year-old of dying before reaching the age of 70. In 1995 a little over 13,000 of a total of a little less than 63,000 deaths could be attributed to smoking. Smoking is responsible for a significant part of the adverse development in Danish life expectancy.     

Integrating behavioral and physiological models of hippocampal function

Mortality of people with mental retardation receiving services in California was examined. The large population (N = 118,653) enabled us to work directly with mortality rates at specific ages. Up to about age 35, mortality rates of people with Down syndrome were comparable to those of people with mental retardation due to other causes. Subsequently, the increase was much more rapid in the group with Down syndrome. Mortality rates of individuals with Down syndrome doubled every 6.4 years compared to 9.6 years for people without Down syndrome. Life tables were constructed; the remaining life expectancy of a 1-year-old child with Down syndrome with mild/moderate retardation was 55 years and with profound mental retardation, 43 years.     

Survival and morbidity among children with low birth weight

Stillbirth and the mortality rate in low birthweight infants (less than 2,500 g) have been greatly reduced since 1967. 95% of all infants born in 1991-93 whose birthweight was between 500 and 999 g, and who survived to one year of age, would have died under the same circumstances in 1967-69. This improved survival is not, to any appreciable extent, related to an increase in demand at seven years of age for a basic grant or attendance benefit because of cerebral palsy or mental retardation. The number of basic grant and attendance benefits because of eye diseases has been reduced by about half for 7-year olds whose birthweight was low. On the whole, however, the number of basic grant and attendance benefits increased from about 1% in 1974-85 to 2.2% in 1986-94. This increase can be particularly attributed to skin and lung diseases. These results have been obtained by coordinating the record of the Medical Birth Registry of Norway and the records of the Social Security offices for all births (1,566,763) registered during the years 1967-93.     

Incidence of anemia in older people: an epidemiologic study in a well defined population

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence and clinical spectrum of anemia among older people. DESIGN: Inception cohort assembled and followed by medical records linkage until death or last clinical contact through January 1994. SETTING: Population-based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: All 618 Olmsted County men and women aged 65 years or more with anemia by World Health Organization criteria that was first recognized in 1986. MEASUREMENTS: Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, corrected for prevalent anemia, and survival estimates using the Kaplan-Meier method, with calculation of standardized mortality ratios for specific causes of death. RESULTS: The corrected annual incidence of anemia rose with age, and rates were higher in men (90.3 per 1000; 95% CI, 79.2-101.4) than women (69.1 per 1000; 95% CI, 62.3-75.8). In 465 cases (75%), anemia was detected in conjunction with a hospitalization, but admission was due to anemia in only 57 instances. Half of the cases were caused by blood loss, two-thirds of these as a result of surgery. The cause of anemia was uncertain in 102 cases (16%). One-third of the patients were transfused with a median of 3 units each. Overall survival was worse than expected but was better among those with anemia caused by blood loss. Mortality attributable to malignancy, mental disorders, circulatory and respiratory diseases, ill-defined conditions, and injuries was significantly increased among these older patients with anemia. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of anemia among older people is 4 to 6 times greater than that suspected clinically, rises with age, and is higher in men than in women. The apparent cause in half the cases is blood loss. Even mild anemia is associated with reduced survival, especially during the first year, but this could relate to underlying comorbid conditions.     

Secular trends in blood pressure levels in Denmark 1964-1991

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is an essential risk factor for development of cardiovascular diseases. Prospective studies show a reduction in risk of myocardial infarction with reduction of blood pressure. In Denmark there was a decrease in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the period (1968-1992) with around 34% in 30-65 year old men and 30% in women. OBJECTIVE: To assess the changes in casual blood pressure between 1964 and 1991 in seven cross-sectional population studies. SETTING: Centre of Preventive Medicine, University of Copenhagen, DK-2600 Glostrup. POPULATION: 10359 subjects, equal numbers of men and women, age exactly 30, 40, 50 and 60 years drawn as random samples from a background population of 300000 inhabitants and surveyed in 1964-1974 and five cross-sectional studies 1976, 1978, 1982-1984, 1986-1987 and 1991. METHODS: Blood pressure was measured according to WHO criteria by one technician in each survey. Alcohol consumption and physical activity were measured by a self-administered questionnaire. The weight and height were measured by standardized methods. Data on mortality from ischaemic heart disease were obtained from death certificates recorded by the National Board of Health. RESULTS: Blood pressure increased with increasing age in both genders and was significantly higher in men than in women. Median blood pressure in 50 year old men in 1964 was 135/85 mmHg and in 1991 it was 123/79, whereas in women in 1964 it was 140/85, against 119/74 in 1991. The prevalence of hypertensives among 30 and 40 year olds declined throughout the period. The performance of blood pressure measurements, technical variation, examination programme, seasonal variation and inter-observer variation were potential bias sources and influenced blood pressure levels, but cannot be shown to be responsible for the declining trend in blood pressure and hypertension. Women became a little more physical active in leisure time and men less active. Women consumed less alcohol than men, but the amounts slightly increased by the end of the period. Body mass index >25 was seen less frequently in women than in men and this increased in men over the period. Sale of antihypertensive drugs increased in Denmark over the 1964-1991 period. There seems to be good agreement between the changes in blood pressure in the population and the decline in mortality from stroke and coronary heart disease in Denmark, which is influenced by other risk factors as well. CONCLUSION: Blood pressure distributions have shifted towards lower values in 1964-1991. Prevalence of hypertension declined up to 1983. Risk factor changes as well as treatment for hypertension contribute to this.     

Mortality associated with HIV-1 infection over five years in a rural Ugandan population: cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of HIV-1 infection on mortality over five years in a rural Ugandan population. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study followed up annually by a house to house census and medical survey. SETTING: Rural population in south west Uganda. SUBJECTS: About 10,000 people from 15 villages who were enrolled in 1989-90 or later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of deaths from all causes, death rates, mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Of 9777 people resident in the study area in 1989-90, 8833 (90%) had an unambiguous result on testing for HIV-1 antibody; throughout the period of follow up adult seroprevalence was about 8%. During 35,083 person years of follow up, 459 deaths occurred, 273 in seronegative subjects and 186 in seropositive subjects, corresponding to standardised death rates of 8.1 and 129.3 per 1000 person years. Standardised death rates for adults were 10.4 (95% confidence interval 9.0 to 11.8) and 114.0 (93.2 to 134.8) per 1000 person years respectively. The mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection was 41% for adults and was in excess of 70% for men aged 25-44 and women aged 20-44 years. Median survival from time of enrollment was less than three years in subjects aged 55 years or more who were infected with HIV-1. Life expectancy from birth in the total population resident at any time was estimated to be 42.5 years (41.4 years in men; 43.5 years in women), which compares with 58.3 years (56.5 years in men; 60.5 years in women) in people known to be seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that in a rural African population HIV-1 infection is associated with high death rates and a substantial reduction in life expectancy.     

Impact of human immunodeficiency virus infection on mortality among young men and women in Spain

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality among young adults in Spain with specific reference to other causes of death. METHODS: Based on death registration data for the period 1980-1993, HIV/AIDS was compared against all other causes of death by gender, using specific rates in the 25-44 age group and standardized rates for potential years of life lost (PYLL). RESULTS: In 1993, HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death among men aged 25-44 years (21.8% of all deaths) and the second leading cause of death among women (14.9%), exceeded only by cancer. Since 1982, the trend in the overall standardized mortality rate for men in the 25-44 age group has been reversed, showing a progressive increase. Similarly, since 1984 there has been a halt in the decline in female mortality. For both sexes, maintenance of these trends in mortality was largely ascribable to the effect of HIV/AIDS deaths which registered a marked rise, a rise far sharper than that witnessed for variations in all other causes studied. In 1993, the adjusted PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS for ages 1-70 rose to 615 per 100,000 population in men and 156 in women. These values accounted for 9.2% and 5.8% of PYLL for all causes, thereby ranking HIV/AIDS behind motor vehicle accidents as the second leading cause of premature death in men, and behind motor vehicle accidents and breast cancer as the third leading cause in women. For both sexes, the rise in the PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS from 1992 to 1993 proved far greater than that for all other causes of death. CONCLUSION: In Spain, HIV/AIDS has become the leading cause of death among young adults and is counteracting improvements in mortality due to other causes. It should therefore be regarded as a priority public health problem.     

Can parental longevity and self-rated life expectancy predict mortality among older persons? Results from an Australian cohort

This study examined the effects of parental longevity and self-rated life expectancy on mortality, building upon the established model of self-rated health predicting mortality. A community sample of Australians aged 70 and over was surveyed in 1992 and 1995. The associations of interest were examined separately by sex using weighted multiple logistic regression. Parental ages at death were not associated with mortality for either men or women. In multivariate models, self-rated life expectancy had an independent effect on men's mortality and did not reduce the effect of self-rated health on mortality. Our findings from Australia are consistent with results from many countries; the effect of self-rated health on mortality is stronger for men than for women. We also found that the effect of self-rated life expectancy on mortality is stronger for men than for women. The independent effects of self-rated health and self-rated life expectancy indicate a need for a more detailed search for explanatory mechanisms.