生物质应用于制液体和气体燃料而不是用于发电

我国能源结构从长期看仍将以煤为主,缺油少气。从我国能源结构来讲,生物质利用的最好方式不是发电．因生物质可以生产液体和气体燃料,而风能、太阳能、水能却只能发电。我国秸杆综合利用取得明显成效．在农业和畜牧业的利用领域还可能进一步拓宽,作为燃料利用的量还可能进一步缩减。从我国还在进行的第一次能源大转换来看,我国生物质使用量已大大减少,但还有相当的数量。要减少作为能源使用的生物质传统利用量,把它用于饲料、肥料和工业原料等还有发展前景的用途。在一次能源消费以化石能源为主的时期,中国存在液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题,以后进入第三次能源转换时期,新能源和可再生能源替代化石能源之后,液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题将会更加突出。因此,生物质应用于生产液体燃料和气体燃料,而不是用于发电。而且生物质发电厂投资高、燃料成本不断上涨,使发电成本高＋生物质发电将长期缺乏竞争力。我国发展生物质液体燃料已具备一定的条件．前几年中石油、中石化和中海油已开始种植可提炼生物液体燃料的能源林。我国非粮生物质液体燃料生产基地正在积极建设之中。我国发展生物质气体燃料也具有一定优势,在沼气、气化和城镇有机废物处理方面都积累了一定的经验。总之生物质生产液体燃料和气体燃料是一种既适应我国当前、又适应未来能源需求的有效措施。     

欧洲能源消费构成变化的启示

30余年来欧洲一次能源消费构成有了重大变化,石油、煤炭比例大幅度降低,天然气大幅度上升,核电明显上升。这些变化主要在上世纪末完成,且不同国家间有适合各自国情的差别。能源构成的优化促进了能源安全和环保,但天然气的大量进口也带来若干负面影响。受此启发,我国在能源构成优化中应强调适合自己的国情。从全国看应发展洁净煤炭,大力节油,能源构成应以煤、油、气、核电和水电等基础能源为主体,多种可再生能源和新能源为补充;从各地区看应强调因地制宜。     

Energy security implications of a national low carbon fuel standard

This paper discusses the potential energy security implications of a national low carbon fuel standard (NLCFS). A low carbon fuel standard is designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by targeting the fuel portion of the fuel-vehicle system. Specifically, a NLCFS would set national targets for the average carbon intensity (CI) of motor fuels, and establish a market for credits that allows fuel producers and importers to respond in a variety of ways to the signal provided by the credit price. An important method for lowering the CI of transportation is to substitute lower-carbon alternative fuels such as advanced biofuels, electricity, CNG, and H2. Despite the focus on GHGs, so long as transportation fuels remain dominated by petroleum, transportation fuel policies like a NLCFS also will be evaluated in terms of their energy security impacts. We examine the fuel substitutions that are projected to be induced by a NLCFS and consider the energy security implications of displacing higher carbon fuels, such as imported Canadian Oil Sands oil or certain imported crude oils, with lower-carbon domestic oil, biofuels, or lower carbon oil imported from other sources.     

Energy security in the industrialized world

The quest for energy security is a major concenr of industrialized countries which are mass consumers of primary energy. The various forms of fossil fuels — crude oil, natural gas, coal and uranium — are, like many commodities, exposed to the law of supply and demand in national and international trade. Demand for fuels, especially oil, has been growing fast since the 1960s. Supply, as for all commodities, is distributed according to geology, irrespective of political boundaries. Supply is abundant, especially for coal. The proved reserve/production ratio is in the order of 30 years for oil and 50 years for gas given the present state of exploration.     

Artificial neural network analysis of world green energy use

This paper focuses on the analysis of world green energy consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the consumption is also analyzed of world primary energy including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A feed-forward back-propagation ANN is used for training and learning processes by taking into consideration data from the literature of world energy consumption from 1965 to 2004. Also, an ANN approach for forecasting world green energy consumption to the year 2050 is presented, and the consumption equations for different energy sources are derived. The environmental aspects of green energy and fossil fuels are discussed in detail. The resulting ANN-based equation curve profiles verify that the available economic reserves of fossil fuel resources are limited, and become “depleted” in the near future. It is expected that world green energy consumption will reach almost 62.74 EJ by 2010, and be on average 32.29% of total energy use between 2005 and 2025. However, world green energy and natural gas consumption will continue increasing after 2050, while world oil and coal consumption are expected to remain relatively stable after 2025 and 2045, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for forecasting energy consumption data, should be utilized in efforts to model world energy consumption.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

我国石油安全战略探讨

本文综合分析了我国石油短缺的原因,指出为保证石油安全,需要将石油短缺作为资源短缺的核心来制定各种战略;将石油安全问题分为石油高价位对经济运行安全的冲击和国际局势紧张时石油供应中断两个方面来考虑,以石油高价位对经济运行安全的冲击为应对重点,采取“以油赚汇、以汇买油”的战略减小运输风险、增加油品供应。同时采取技术与管理措施,提高能源效率,降低能耗。在综合考虑石油安全时将保障汽油柴油的安全作为石油安全的核心。加大石油资源勘探力度、开发非常规原油(如油砂、重油、油页岩)和替代液体油品(如煤液化油、水煤浆、甲醇、二甲醚、LPG、CNG、废塑料废轮胎裂解油、生物柴油、生物乙醇、生物质热解油品等)。     

Nuclear power, coal and energy conservation (with a note on the costs of a nuclear moratorium)

A programming model is used to explore some of the options by which the United States may realistically move away from its present heavy dependence on oil and gas to a more diversified energy economy, based on nuclear power and/or coal. The model incorporates both own- and cross-price elasticities. In this way it allows for price-induced interfuel substitution and price-induced energy conservation.Among the supply options considered are: the direct combustion of coal to generate electricity; the conversion of coal to synthetic fuels; the limited petroleum, natural gas, and shale oil resources; nuclear energy from light water reactors and, later, from fast breeder reactors; hydrogen via electrolysis; and such distant future technical options as central station solar power and fusion (aggregated and described only as “advanced technology”).Each of these energy sources is discussed in terms of its own costs and the probable date of its commercial introduction. We then quantify the sensitivity of the benefits from research and development to assumptions with respect to: the discount rate; the future (undiscovered) domestic resource bases of oil, gas and low-cost uranium; and the cost at which large future supplies of coal can be utilized.Under a plausible set of assumptions (the base case), we find that the present value of the benefits from both the fast breeder and coal-based synthetic fuels well exceeds their anticipated research and development costs. In an optimum mix, the combined benefits would be nearly $50 billion (in 1975 dollars) discounted at 10% annually over the 75-year span of our study, and $450 billion at a 5% annual discount rate. Under the same conditions, we also find that if a nuclear moratorium prohibiting the construction of additional plants throughout the country were to come into effect, the direct cost to the United States economy would be approximately $300 billion at a 10% discount rate and $2500 billion at a 5% rate.     

宁夏风力发电前景分析

能源是人类赖以生存的物质基础,是国民经济的基本支撑。中国的能源供应主要依靠煤炭、石油和天然气等化石能源,尤其是宁夏的能源供应主要依靠煤炭,但是化石能源资源的有限性及其开发利用过程对生态环境造成的巨大影响,严重制约经济社会的可持续发展。叙述了宁夏风能资源的现状,分析了风力发电的前景。     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

我国能源利用现状与对策

我国能源工业面临着以下挑战:①应对气候变化和节能减排的形势;②相当长时期内以煤为主的能源结构和石油的不可替代性;③化石能源供应短缺和原油劣质化趋势日趋严重。根据我国能源工业面对的严峻形势,提出了能源利用对策。首先要加快发展可再生能源、新能源。其次要研究我国炼油石化工业发展技术路线,充分利用好宝贵的油气资源。炼化一体化要实行紧密一体化,以提高资源利用率,实现生产更大的灵活性,适应市场油品和石化产品变化的需求。选择合适的渣油加工路线,提高原油加工深度,将有限的石油资源转化为轻质油品,要开发更有效的渣油深度转化工艺,进一步完善劣质渣油加工的组合工艺。石油炼厂开发石油替代能源生产技术路线应利用现有石油加工设备和传统的炼油工艺加工替代能源产品,并使所得产品与炼厂传统的烃类燃料相容。再次要重点研究开发煤的清洁利用技术路线。作为其战略方向,应发展以煤气化为核心的多联产系统。建议抓紧开发CO2零排放的煤气化制甲醇新工艺与风电的集成系统,并加快煤基醇醚燃料的推广应用和尽快实现甲醇制烯烃和乙二醇的工业化生产,加快甲醇应用领域的发展。为迎接"甲醇经济"时代,建议在发展煤制甲醇的同时开发多种原料的甲醇生产路线,主要有天然气不经过合成气途径制甲醇和CO2制甲醇等。     

Protecting the forest from the trees: the social costs of energy production in Sweden

This paper addresses the current debate over the expansion of biomass-based fuels. Using full social cost analysis, we estimate production and environmental costs for various forest residue, coal, oil, and natural gas energy production systems, using Sweden as our case example. We aggregate and compare these costs to assess energy policy options. Our analysis indicates that while forest residues may constitute a reasonable replacement for coal, natural gas remains the dominant energy choice in Sweden in terms of combined economic and environmental costs. Our analysis also demonstrates the site specificity of environmental cost estimation, and the difficulty in monetizing all environmental impacts.     

Turkey's Renewable Energy Facilities in the Near Future

In this work, renewable energy facilities of Turkey were investigated. Electricity is mainly produced by thermal power plants, consuming coal, lignite, natural gas, fuel oil and geothermal energy, and hydro power plants in Turkey. Turkey has no large oil and gas reserves. The main indigenous energy resources are lignite, hydro and biomass. Turkey has to adopt new, long-term energy strategies to reduce the share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. For these reasons, the development and use of renewable energy sources and technologies are increasingly becoming vital for sustainable economic development of Turkey. The most significant developments in renewable production are observed hydropower and geothermal energy production. Renewable electricity facilities mainly include electricity from biomass, hydropower, geothermal, and wind and solar energy sources. Biomass cogeneration is a promising method for production bioelectricity.     

洁净煤技术及其在我国能源消费结构调整中的作用

通过分析我国现行能源生产与消费现状,可发现我国煤炭资源丰富,但煤炭作为终端能源的消费比例过高,燃煤质量普遍低下,燃煤技术普遍落后,引起大气和地面严重污染,已在很大程度上影响和制约了国民经济的发展;随着国民经济的发展。近些年我国石油消费量不断增加,石油供需矛盾日益突出,进口依存度已达 30％,外汇支付压力越来越大,石油安全问题已涉及国家能源安全;天然气从长远看也满足不了需求。因此,我国能源发展应立足于国内资源,以煤炭为基础,多元化发展高效、清洁能源。洁净煤技术可有效提高煤炭效率,减少粉尘和 SO2污染,有利于调整产业结构和技术结构,有利于国民经济的可持续发展。     

An international comparison of energy use in industry: United Kingdom,West Germany,and Italy

The paper presents an investigation on the relation between energy use and economic activity in eight industrial sectors in the United Kingdom, West Germany, and Italy. The approach relies on the analysis of time-series data. In the first section, we point to the role of energy in its interrelationship with the structural characteristics of the national economies. Subsequently, having observed that unit energy requirements vary in the same sector across the three countries, the analysis focuses on possible explanations. The different unit energy consumption pattern, as exhibited by most of the Italian sectors when compared with both the British and the West German ones, is not related to different unit labour and unit capital utilisation patterns. The lack, in the Italian sectors, of a large coal consumption share in the first post-war decade provides an intuitively plausible explanation for the observed unit energy consumption. We test the hypothesis that interfuel substitution alone can account for increased energy productivity. From the results obtained, we deduce that, for a small subset of our sectors, the tested hypothesis turns out to be a meaningful one. In a subsequent section, we analyse and compare the substitution characteristics and the price elasticities of consumption for four fuels. We also take account of the price of labour. Our results support the conclusion that electricity tends to be used as a complement to the other fuels, while the fossil fuels substitute for each other.     

Status and perspectives of fossil power generation

According to forecasts made by the World Energy Conference and other organizations, fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas will be, in the foreseeable future, our main source for power generation. It is, therefore, very important to use these non-renewable resources with great care and utilize them only in highly efficient plants. This not only conserves our limited reserves but also cuts emissions, thus protecting life, the environment and climatic stability. Technology development will be in particularly high demand during periods of rising fuel prices. To be properly positioned, the electricity markets as well as the available energy conversion technologies and their future development perspectives must be monitored [Power Plant Concepts for Fossil Fuels, VDI-Berichte Nr. 1029, 1993, S. 3; Comparative evaluation of power plants with regard to technical, ecological and economical aspects, in: ASME TURBO EXPO 2001, New Orleans]. An overview is given in the following of state-of-the-art and future power generation technologies, and their development potential, as well as environmental and economic considerations.     

Prospects for coal gasification in Pakistan

Pakistan is currently facing serious energy supply problems. Energy demand has been increasing by about 8% per year during the last 12yr and this trend is likely to continue. Since 1980–1981 the oil import bill has been consuming more than 50% of yearly export earning. As there is not much scope for a sizeable increase in the domestic supply of gas, oil, or hydroelectric power, increasing the use of domestic coal is necessary to avoid excessive dependence on imported energy. Coal gasification to produce substitute natural gas (SNG) is not economical at present coal production costs, due to the low cost of indigenous gas and subsidized furnace oil and kerosene and the high SNG production costs from the technology available at present. If domestic prices of gas and liquid fuels are increased to the level of current international oil prices and developments in coal gasification technologies can bring about expected reductions in capital costs and improvements in efficiency, coal gasification may become economical in Pakistan. It is estimated that indigenous coal resources can potentially supply 3–6 million TCE/yr of SNG by 2000—about 10–20% of the substitutable fossil fuels demand for that year—along with meeting about 9% of the electricity demand.     

Application of advanced correlative approaches to modeling hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels

In petroleum and petrochemical refineries, having precise knowledge regarding H₂ solubility in hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks is critical. In this study, the hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels was estimated using genetic programming (GP) and group method of data handling (GMDH), two exemplary robust advanced models for generating correlation. To do this, 445 observations derived from labratory findings on hydrogen solubility in 17 different hydrocarbon fuels such as bitumen, atmospheric residue, heavy coking gas oil, heavy virgin gas oil, light virgin gas oil, straight run gas oil, shale fuel oil, dephenolated shale fuel oil, diesel, hydrogenated coal liquid, coal liquid, and coal oil, over a large interval of P- operating pressures and T-temperatures were collected. Temperature, pressure, as well as density at 20 °C, molecular weight, and weight percentage of carbon (C) and hydrogen (H) in hydrocarbon fuels, were used as input parameters in developing robust correlations. The outcomes showed the GMDH approach is more precise compared to the GP, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.053302 and a determination coefficient (R²) of 0.9641. Additionally, sensitivity analysis showed that pressure, followed by temperature and H (wt%) of hydrocarbon fuels, has the greatest impact on hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels. Ultimately, the Leverage method's results suggested that the GMDH model could be relied on to predict hydrogen solubility in hydrocarbon fuels.     

Sustainable energy development: performance and prospects

Concerns about sustainability, and the harsh realities of environmental catastrophe, can be traced back at least 4000 years. This paper points out how human pressures on the surrounding environment have had severe consequences over this period, coal burning has had adverse consequences traceable over the past 750 years, and the adverse environmental impacts of using other fossil fuels have aroused attention more recently. Heightened awareness of the need for sustainable development is a modern development, evident in international and national debates since the early 1970s. With the Brundtland Commission report published in 1987 came a framework for sustainable energy development. However, performance under the four elements of that framework have been almost uniformly disappointing. Fossil fuel use has continued to rise; renewable energy use has made insufficient inroads; waste and inefficiency in energy usage continues to be far too high; too many people remain without modern energy services or are exposed to severe pollution in the home and local atmosphere; there are mounting concerns about the conventional oil resource base—and future supplies and prices of oil and natural gas; greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and evidence of human-induced climate change continues to mount. Indices of national environmental performance suggest no country is performing adequately; population, housing and transportation pressures result in greater pollution, loss of natural habitats, and species reduction; and poor governance is frequently cited as a major cause of poor environmental performance. The prospects for sustainable energy are bleak on current trends.