Properties of the exponential EWMA chart with parameter estimation

Count rates may reach very low levels in production processes with low defect levels. In such settings, conventional control charts for counts may become ineffective since the occurrence of many samples with zero defects would cause control statistic to be consistently zero. Consequently, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart to monitor the time between successive events (TBE) or counts has been introduced as an effective approach for monitoring processes with low defect levels. When the counts occur according to a Poisson distribution, the TBE observations are distributed as exponential. Although the assumption of exponential distribution is a reasonable choice as a model of TBE observations, its parameter, i.e. the mean (also the standard deviation), is rarely known in practice and its estimate is used in place of the unknown parameter when constructing the exponential EWMA chart. In this article, we investigate the effects of parameter estimation on the performance measures (average run length, standard deviation, and percentiles of the run length distribution) of the exponential EWMA control chart. A comprehensive analysis of the conditional performance measures of the chart shows that the effect of estimation can be serious, especially if small samples are used. An investigation of the marginal performance measures, which are calculated by averaging the conditional performance measures over the distribution of the parameter estimator, allows us to provide explicit sample size recommendations in constructing these charts to reach a satisfactory performance in both the in‐control and the out‐of‐control situation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SPC with correlated observations for the chemical and process industries

In the use of statistical control charts, violating the basic assumption of independent or uncorrelated data results in a chart that exhibits poor statistical performance, resulting in an increased number of false alarms. Autocorrelated data requires modifications to traditional control chart techniques. A method based on the exponentially weighted moving average that uses variable control limits is presented. Using simulation, we explore the shift detection properties of this moving centre-line technique and will show how the detection capability of the procedure can be enhanced using supplemental tracking signal tests. Guidelines and conditions for use are also presented.     

A control scheme for monitoring the frequency and magnitude of an event

While many control charts have been developed for monitoring the time interval (t) between the occurrences of an event, many other charts are employed to examine the magnitude (x) of the event. These two types of control charts have usually been investigated and applied separately with limited syntheses in conventional statistical process control (SPC) methods. This article presents an SPC method for simultaneously monitoring the time interval t and magnitude x. It, essentially, combines a t chart and an x chart, and is therefore referred to as a t&x chart. The new chart is more effective than an individual t chart or individual x chart for detecting the out-of-control status of the event, in particular for detecting downward shifts (sparse occurrence and/or small magnitude). More profound is that, compared with an individual t or x chart, the detection effectiveness of the t&x chart is more invariable against different types of shifts, i.e. t shift, x shift and joint shift in t and x. The t&x chart has demonstrated its potential not only for manufacturing systems, but also for non-manufacturing sectors such as supply chain management, office administration and health care industry.     

Exponential CUSUM Charts with Estimated Control Limits

Exponential CUSUM charts are used in monitoring the occurrence rate of rare events because the interarrival times of events for homogeneous Poisson processes are independent and identically distributed exponential random variables. In these applications, it is assumed that the exponential parameter, i.e. the mean, is known or has been accurately estimated. However, in practice, the in‐control mean is typically unknown and must be estimated to construct the limits for the exponential CUSUM chart. In this article, we investigate the effect of parameter estimation on the run length properties of one‐sided lower exponential CUSUM charts. In addition, analyzing conditional performance measures shows that the effect of estimation error can be significant, affecting both the in‐control average run length and the quick detection of process deterioration. We also provide recommendations regarding phase I sample sizes. This sample size must be quite large for the in‐control chart performance to be close to that for the known parameter case. Finally, we provide an industrial example to highlight the practical implications of estimation error, and to offer advice to practitioners when constructing/analyzing a phase I sample. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter Selection for a Robust Tracking Signal

Tracking signals use past forecast errors to monitor and control a forecasting process. In this study, the cumulative‐sum tracking signal and the smoothed‐error tracking signal are evaluated on their ability to aid in shift (process upset) detection. The moving‐centerline EWMA control chart technique is coupled with these tracking signals to enhance the monitoring of autocorrelated processes. The analysis characterizes two prevalent time series models: AR(1) and ARMA(1,1). The goal of this paper is to explore the capabilities of the tracking signals and the moving‐centerline EWMA when the smoothing constants are varied and a shift is introduced into the process. The tracking signals are evaluated based on average run length (ARL) and false alarm rate (FA). Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple categorical chart for detecting location shifts with ordinal information

Traditional control charts for monitoring attribute data usually neglect the order among the attribute levels, such as good, marginal and bad, of a categorical factor. Such order may be reflected by an underlying continuous variable, which determines the level of the categorical factor by classifying it according to some thresholds in the latent continuous scale. This paper exploits this ordinal information and proposes a control chart for detecting location shifts in the latent variable based on merely the attribute level counts, regardless of the continuous values of the latent variable. The proposed ordinal chart is very simple to construct and enjoys the same setting as conventional categorical charts. Numerical simulations demonstrate the superiority of this simple ordinal categorical chart.     

A control scheme integrating the T chart and TCUSUM chart

This article proposes an integrated scheme (T&TCUSUM chart) which combines a Shewhart T chart and a TCUSUM chart (a CUSUM‐type T chart) to monitor the time interval T between the occurrences of an event or the time between events. The performance studies show that the T&TCUSUM chart can effectively improve the overall performance over the entire T shift range. On average, it is more effective than the T chart by 26.66% and the TCUSUM chart by 14.12%. Moreover, the T&TCUSUM chart performs more consistently than other charts for the detection of either small or large T shifts, because it has the strength of both the T chart (more sensitive to large shifts) and the TCUSUM chart (more sensitive to small shifts). The implementation of the new chart is almost as easy as the operation of a TCUSUM chart. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A control chart based on likelihood ratio test for monitoring process mean and variability

Recently, monitoring the process mean and variance simultaneously by using a single chart has drawn more and more attention. In this paper, we propose a new single chart that integrates the EWMA procedure with the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test statistics for jointly monitoring both the process mean and variance. It can be easily designed and constructed, and its average run length can be evaluated by a two‐dimensional Markov chain model. Owing to the good properties of the GLR test and EMWA, computation results show that it provides quite a robust and satisfactory performance in various cases, including the detection of the decrease in variability and the individual observation at the sampling point, which are very important in many practical applications but may not be well handled by the existing approaches in the literature. The application of our proposed method is illustrated by a real data example from chemical process control. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring Highly Correlated Multivariate Processes Using Hotelling's T2 Statistic: Problems and Possible Solutions

Hotelling's T² statistic is the default control statistic for continuous multivariate data, but there are dangers in applying this statistic without the appropriate level of checks and balances. This paper discusses the potential issues with using the Hotelling's T² statistic when the quality variable measures are highly correlated and provides some solutions that will help mitigate the risks with applying the Hotelling's T² control charts in such practical examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical monitoring performance for startup operations in a feedback control system

Previously, it has been held that statistical process control (SPC) and engineering process control (EPC) were two distinct domains for process improvement. However, we specifically consider the impact for integrating the two approaches on a first‐order dynamic system with ARIMA disturbances. We show how to model and analyze this system over a range of practical conditions. Our work results in a set of response surfaces that characterize the performance of the integrated design. We also compare these results to the case where the SPC and EPC policies are applied separately. In general, we find that the EPC approach performs best in terms of minimizing error, but that we can reduce the number and magnitude of adjustments using the integrated monitoring and control approach. This work also further supports our earlier findings that the integrated design is effective on complex dynamic systems during the initial transient or startup period. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.