Calibration of SWAT models using the cloud

This paper evaluates a recently created Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibration tool built using the Windows Azure Cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed for three watersheds of increasing size each for a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Results show significant speedup in calibration time and, for up to 64 cores, minimal losses in speedup for all watershed sizes and simulation durations. An empirical relationship is presented for estimating the time needed to calibration a SWAT model using the cloud calibration tool as a function of the number of Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), time steps, and cores used for the calibration.     

企业私有云计算基础架构研究与设计

随着信息化在企业中的深入运用,传统IT架构慢慢显现出弊端：基础资源利用率偏低、管理上太分散;面对管理或业务出现变化时,旧的业务系统难以快速响应.怎样实现业务同IT建设的协同,怎样对IT系统现有数据进行利用,这些都成为当下企业立刻要解决的.“云计算”作为眼下信息领域炙手可热的技术,一方面它能对现有IT资源进行很好地整合,另一方面面对业务变化时它能实现IT建设的迅速响应,因此它的研发为解决企业的上述难题提供了希望.     

基于云计算的图书馆云服务模型研究

通过借鉴OCLC在云计算图书馆的设计思路以及基于云计算整合图书馆资源与日常服务的办法,提出了在云计算图书馆云服务的构建思路及其模型。     

A framework for propagation of uncertainty contributed by parameterization,input data,model structure,and calibration/validation data in watershed modeling

Failure to consider major sources of uncertainty may bias model predictions in simulating watershed behavior. A framework entitled the Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool (IPEAT), was developed utilizing Bayesian inferences, an input error model and modified goodness-of-fit statistics to incorporate uncertainty in parameter, model structure, input data, and calibration/validation data in watershed modeling. Applications of the framework at the Eagle Creek Watershed in Indiana shows that watershed behavior was more realistically represented when the four uncertainty sources were considered jointly without having to embed watershed behavior constraints in auto-calibration. Accounting for the major sources of uncertainty associated with watershed modeling produces more realistic predictions, improves the quality of calibrated solutions, and consequently reduces predictive uncertainty. IPEAT is an innovative tool to investigate and explore the significance of uncertainty sources, which enhances watershed modeling by improved characterization and assessment of predictive uncertainty.     

The impact of the objective function in multi-site and multi-variable calibration of the SWAT model

Automatic calibration of complex hydro-ecological models is an increasingly important issue which involves making decisions. One of the most relevant is the choice of the objective function, but its effects have been scarcely studied in complex models. We have used the SWAT model to assess the impact of the objective function for a multi-site (4 stations) and multi-variable (OrgP, OrgN, NO₃⁻, PO₄³⁻) calibration of the Odense catchment (Denmark). Six calibration schemes were tested, varying the objective function and the nutrient fractions targeted. The best performance metrics (R², NSE, PBIAS) were obtained when using NSE as objective function and targeting N-fractions and P-fractions separately. The scheme was validated in another SWAT set-up in northern Denmark. Although NSE is often questioned, we found it as an adequate objective function when addressing a multi-site and multi-variable calibration. Our findings may serve as guideline for hydro-ecological modellers, being useful to achieve watershed management goals.     

Design and implementation of a general software library for using NSGA-II with SWAT for multi-objective model calibration

Calibrating watershed-scale hydrologic models remains a critical but challenging step in the modeling process. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one example of a widely used watershed-scale hydrologic model that requires calibration. The calibration algorithms currently available to SWAT modelers through freely available and open source software, however, are limited and do not include many multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGAs). The Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) has been shown to be an effective and efficient MOGA calibration algorithm for a wide variety of applications including for SWAT model calibration. Therefore, the objective of this study was to create an open source software library for multi-objective calibration of SWAT models using NSGA-II. The design and implementation of the library are presented, followed by a demonstration of the library through a test case for the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, USA using six objective functions in the model calibration.     

Understanding and predicting students' intention to use mobile cloud storage services

The challenges of mobile devices such as limited bandwidth, computing, and storage have led manufacturers and service providers to develop new value-added mobile services. To address these limitations, mobile cloud computing, which offers on-demand services including platforms, infrastructure, and software have been developed. This study attempts to build a significantly improved research framework based on the Technology Acceptance Model in order to identify factors that affect students' attitudes toward and intentions in using mobile cloud storage services. A structural equation model was used to assess the proposed model based on the data collected from 262 undergraduate students. Results show that perceived usefulness, subjective norm, and trust have a significantly positive effect on the attitude, which in turn is a significant predictor of behavioral intentions. The research model, which explains 82% of the variance in attitudes toward using mobile cloud storage services has a strong predictive power. The findings have both theoretical and practical implications for academics, managers, and educational institutions.     

Sensitivity analysis of a hierarchical model of mobile cloud computing

Mobile cloud computing is a new paradigm that uses cloud computing resources to overcome the limitations of mobile computing. Due to its complexity, dependability and performance studies of mobile clouds may require composite modeling techniques, using distinct models for each subsystem and combining state-based and non-state-based formalisms. This paper uses hierarchical modeling and four different sensitivity analysis techniques to determine the parameters that cause the greatest impact on the availability of a mobile cloud. The results show that distinct approaches provide similar results regarding the sensitivity ranking, with specific exceptions. A combined evaluation indicates that system availability may be improved effectively by focusing on a reduced set of factors that produce large variation on the measure of interest. The time needed to replace a fully discharged battery in the mobile device is a parameter with high impact on steady-state availability, as well as the coverage factor for the failures of some cloud servers. This paper also shows that a sensitivity analysis through partial derivatives may not capture the real level of impact for some parameters in a discrete domain, such as the number of active servers. The analysis through percentage differences, or the factorial design of experiments, fulfills such a gap.     

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

An autonomic cloud environment for hosting ECG data analysis services

Advances in sensor technology, personal mobile devices, wireless broadband communications, and Cloud computing are enabling real-time collection and dissemination of personal health data to patients and health-care professionals anytime and from anywhere. Personal mobile devices, such as PDAs and mobile phones, are becoming more powerful in terms of processing capabilities and information management and play a major role in peoples daily lives. This technological advancement has led us to design a real-time health monitoring and analysis system that is Scalable and Economical for people who require frequent monitoring of their health. In this paper, we focus on the design aspects of an autonomic Cloud environment that collects peoples health data and disseminates them to a Cloud-based information repository and facilitates analysis on the data using software services hosted in the Cloud. To evaluate the software design we have developed a prototype system that we use as an experimental testbed on a specific use case, namely, the collection of electrocardiogram (ECG) data obtained at real-time from volunteers to perform basic ECG beat analysis.     

面向云计算的主成分分析多变量局域预测模型

针对云平台无法从单变量负荷序列中获取完整预测信息的问题,提出了一种基于主成分分析的多变量局域预测模型并应用于云计算底层资源的预测中。利用主成分分析法综合考虑多种底层资源间的影响关系,确定多变量相空间的嵌入维数,并与局域预测法相结合,由此建立多变量局域预测模型。仿真实验表明,基于主成分分析的多变量局域预测模型的预测精度高于单变量局域预测模型,是面向云计算底层资源预测的一种有效方法。     

云计算下的多源信息资源云体系及云服务模型研究

针对传统信息服务模式存在信息资源规模单一、虚拟化程度低、自适应程度较差及知识泛化等问题, 同时考虑到目前云服务体系中忽略多源信息资源这一重要因素, 提出了云计算环境下的多源信息资源云体系及服务模型。首先构建了基于云计算的多源信息资源云体系, 对信息资源搜索、查询及匹配等技术进行阐述, 进而提出了新的云服务模型——基于云计算的多源信息资源即服务（multi-source information resource as a service, MIRaaS）, 在此基础上搭建了该模型在商务领域下的应用平台。分析表明, 该模型能对多源信息资源进行重构、分析、整合及匹配, 并充分考虑用户体验, 很好地扩展了云服务的研究范围及应用领域。     

国内电网企业云计算成熟度模型及实证

根据目前云计算和云计算成熟度模型（云计算能力评估模型）的研究现状,结合国内电网企业的实际情况,首次提出面向国内电网企业量化的云计算能力成熟度模型,并建立云计算成熟度模型指标体系。该模型将云计算能力细分为业务支撑能力、IT服务能力、基础平台支撑能力和安全防护能力,并将这4个维度的能力进行分类。最后以国内某省级电网公司为切入点,使用该模型和指标体系进行评估分析。     

基于高性能计算的SWAT参数敏感度分析并行框架

随着大规模水文模拟需求的不断提高,如何解决计算需求问题逐渐成为水文研究的一个热点.SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型在进行大规模水文模拟时有着良好的适应性与准确度,但其敏感度分析模块由于计算量过高,计算时长往往长达数月之久.为了加快SWAT敏感度分析的运行速度,针对SWAT敏感度分析模块的特点,基于MPI提出了一种高效的主—从式并行计算框架,并在此框架的基础上,通过将正演过程并行化,在敏感度分析的主—从并行框架中引入通信子空间的操作,将并行化的正演与主—从式的外层并行框架相结合,得到一种混合式的敏感度分析并行框架,大大提高了对参数集合的敏感度分析速度,将SWAT敏感度分析模块使用的处理器数量从原始的单核串行一跃提升到百核的数量级.最后通过天山北坡流域的模拟验证了此并行框架的可行性.     

Multivariate significance testing and model calibration under uncertainty

The importance of modeling and simulation in the scientific community has drawn interest towards methods for assessing the accuracy and uncertainty associated with such models. This paper addresses the validation and calibration of computer simulations using the thermal challenge problem developed at Sandia National Laboratories for illustration. The objectives of the challenge problem are to use hypothetical experimental data to validate a given model, and then to use the model to make predictions in an untested domain. With regards to assessing the accuracy of the given model (validation), we illustrate the use of Hotelling’s T² statistic for multivariate significance testing, with emphasis on the formulation and interpretation of such an analysis for validation assessment. In order to use the model for prediction, we next employ the Bayesian calibration method introduced by Kennedy and O’Hagan. Towards this end, we discuss how inherent variability can be reconciled with “lack-of-knowledge” and other uncertainties, and we illustrate a procedure that allows probability distribution characterization uncertainty to be included in the overall uncertainty analysis of the Bayesian calibration process.     

互联网网站整体迁移到云计算平台的研究与应用

云计算平台可作为一种基于互联网的、动态可伸缩的、以服务方式提供计算资源的全新计算模式,在今后各企业的IT架构中将占据重要的位置.介绍了IT企业如何充分利用Amazon的弹性云的各种资源,整体迁移大多数企业内部应用和产品到云计算平台、快速灵活的配置企业各种资源,并利用云计算平台,最大化利用资源的同时,又能及时响应限制于IT设施投入的机遇.同时分析了迁移所涉及到的服务架构调整、相关资源利用和安全性稳定性等问题.     

Analysis of a trust model for SLA negotiation and enforcement in cloud markets

Online Reputation Systems help mitigate the information asymmetry between clients and providers in Cloud Computing Markets. However, those systems raise two main drawbacks: the disagreement for assuming the cost of ownership of such services and their vulnerability to reputation attacks from dishonest parties that want to increase their reputation. This article faces both problems by describing a decentralised (peer-to-peer) trust model that does not require the intervention of a central entity to manage it. This model includes mechanisms to allow participants to avoid dishonest behaviour from other peers: each client statistically analyses the external reports about providers and updates the trustworthiness of the peers. The trustworthiness values will be used to negotiate prices in later transactions. The trust model is then incorporated in the Service-Level Agreement negotiation and enforcement processes, prioritising trusted clients over non-trusted clients to minimise the consequences of low Quality of Service in relation to the trust of the provider, and incentivise accurate trust reports from the clients. Finally, this article evaluates and discusses the validity of the trust model under different attacks from dishonest clients and providers.     

Proxy re-encryption architect for storing and sharing of cloud contents

Internet-based online cloud services provide enormous volumes of storage space, tailor-made computing resources and eradicate the obligation of native machines for data maintenance as well. Cloud storage service providers claim to offer the ability of secure and elastic data-storage services that can adapt to various storage necessities. Most of the security tools have a finite rate of failure, and intrusion comes with more complex and sophisticated techniques; the security failure rates are skyrocketing. Once we upload our data into the cloud, we lose control of our data, which certainly carries new security hazards toward integrity and privacy of our information. In this paper, we discuss a secure file sharing mechanism for the cloud with proxy re-encryption (PRE). PRE-scheme is implemented with the Disintegration Protocol to secure storage data in storage and in the flight. The paper introduces a new contribution of a seamless file sharing technique among different clouds without sharing an encryption key.     

Comparison of variance-based and moment-independent global sensitivity analysis approaches by application to the SWAT model

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is an essential technique to support the calibration of environmental models by identifying the influential parameters (screening) and ranking them.In this paper, the widely-used variance-based method (Sobol') and the recently proposed moment-independent PAWN method for GSA are applied to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and compared in terms of ranking and screening results of 26 SWAT parameters. In order to set a threshold for parameter screening, we propose the use of a “dummy parameter”, which has no influence on the model output. The sensitivity index of the dummy parameter is calculated from sampled data, without changing the model equations. We find that Sobol' and PAWN identify the same 12 influential parameters but rank them differently, and discuss how this result may be related to the limitations of the Sobol' method when the output distribution is asymmetric.