An Artificial Emergency-Logistics-Planning System for Severe Disasters

To help government and disaster relief organizations prepare for and manage severe disasters, the authors propose the artificial emergency-logistics-planning system (Aelps). Aelps, which is based on artificial-society theory, concurrently considers different subsystems dealing with weather, geology, epidemics, and so on. Aelps can form the basis of a complex computational platform that generates logistics phenomena during disaster relief and gives intuitive results that can be used in emergency-logistics planning.     

基于虚拟现实技术的灾难事故仿真系统

根据对灾难仿真系统的实际构建经验,运用虚拟现实技术设计了灾难事故仿真系统.该系统可模拟化工系统灾难事故的发生、发展,是灾难仿真用于研究和演练的有效平台.将虚拟现实技术用于石化系统的灾难事故的仿真,这属于新领域的探索.引入泄露、扩散、爆炸等模型呈现事故的动态发展过程,体现化工灾难的特点.对于如何运用虚拟现实技术结合灾难仿真机理模型进行仿真实现的思路上进行了有益的探索.技术成果对今后基于灾难仿真的应急预案的研究、制定和演练工作提供了基础平台.文章对于灾难事故分析、预防、制定和应急演练都有应用前景.北京华康达公司研制出的该仿真系统能较好的模拟出化工企业的灾难事故发生、发展的过程.在大型石油、石化企业得到了应用,并取得较好的仿真效果.     

A general methodology for data-based rule building and its application to natural disaster management

Risks derived from natural disasters have a deeper impact than the sole damage suffered by the affected zone and its population. Because disasters can affect geostrategic stability and international safety, developed countries invest a huge amount of funds to manage these risks. A large portion of these funds are channeled through United Nations agencies and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which at the same time are carrying out more and more complex operations. For these reasons, technological support for these actors is required, all the more so because the global economic crisis is placing emphasis on the need for efficiency and transparency in the management of (relatively limited) funds. Nevertheless, currently available sophisticated tools for disaster management do not fit well into these contexts because their infrastructure requirements usually exceed the capabilities of such organizations. In this paper, a general methodology for inductive rule building is described and applied to natural-disaster management. The application is a data-based, two-level knowledge decision support system (DSS) prototype which provides damage assessment for multiple disaster scenarios to support humanitarian NGOs involved in response to natural disasters. A validation process is carried out to measure the accuracy of both the methodology and the DSS.     

Multi-agent based path planning for first responders among moving obstacles

Natural or man-made disasters can cause different kinds of moving obstacles (e.g., fires, plumes, floods), which make some parts of the road network temporarily unavailable. After such incidents occur, responders have to go to different destinations to perform their tasks in the environment affected by the disaster. Therefore they need a path planner that is capable of dealing with such moving obstacles, as well as generating and coordinating their routes quickly and efficiently. In this paper, we present a novel approach for using a multi-agent system for navigating one or multiple responders to one or multiple destinations in the presence of moving obstacles. Our navigation system supports information collection from hazard simulations, spatio-temporal data processing and analysis, connection with a geo-database, and route generation in dynamic environments affected by disasters. We design and develop a set of software geospatial agents that assist emergency actors in dealing with the spatio-temporal data required for emergency navigation, based on their roles in the disaster response. One of the key components of the system is the path planning module, which combines the modified A* algorithm, insertion heuristics, and auction algorithm to calculate obstacle-avoiding routes for multiple responders with multiple destinations. A spatial data model is designed to support the storage of information about the tasks and routes produced during the disaster response. Our system has been validated using four navigation cases. Some preliminary results are presented in this paper and show the potential of the system for solving more navigation cases.     

灾害救援实时最快通行路径算法

灾害救援需要物资人力的快速运输,而突发灾害常会影响到道路的通行状态,研究道路网络动态变化情况下救援车辆的实时最快通行路径算法,具有重要的经济和社会意义.针对灾害发生后道路状况多变突变的情况,提出一种实时最快通行路径求解算法ARFTP(Algorithm of Real-time Fastest Traffic Path),将结点进行分类筛选,依据相应准则进行运算,减少了需要重新计算的结点和路径数量.当车辆行驶在原定救援最快通行路径上时,实时收到路段变化信息,根据ARFTP求解策略可快速求出新的最快通行路径.通过仿真验证了算法的有效性和效率,对提高灾害救援运输效率具有一定的意义.     

Disaster Recovery Planning Software

During the 1970s and early 1980s, a handful of companies were promoting disaster recovery services ranging from skeletal disaster plans, cold sites, and consulting services to full-blown hot-site recovery services. For the most part, these companies were selling on the basis of scare tactics. They told us that not only could disasters happen, they could damage and destroy data centers, computer systems, and information. Few organizations heeded their warnings, however, even though those of us in the computer security business knew the threats were real. The big challenge back then was to sell the idea of disaster recovery planning to management.

Now the 1990s are upon us. Our reliance on computers has increased; millions of computers are now used in various business environments. Awareness of disasters has increased as well; there are now many examples of disasters to back up our arguments when we are trying to convince senior management of the need for disaster recovery planning.     

Organizational Networks in Times of Crisis: Lessons from Katrina

The purpose of this study was to examine how well organizations that could have potentially aided in the response to Hurricane Katrina were integrated into the relief effort following the disaster using a social network analysis framework. It was hypothesized that a number of organizations were kept isolated from or peripheral to mitigation efforts. Quantitative content analysis of media reports and government documents was performed to test this hypothesis, which was confirmed. The results of this study suggest that if relief efforts are to be more successful in the future, organizations with valuable resources must be included in the interorganizational networks of responders before and immediately after disasters take place.     

Counteracting the Cultural Causes of Disaster

It is widely recognised that disasters are preceded by warning signs which are ignored or discounted because of cultural factors. There is now considerable discussion of the possibility of constructing safety cultures to counteract this effect. This paper contributes to this discussion by drawing on the case of a coal mine disaster in Australia. The paper shows that there were two sets of cultural factors at work preventing appropriate responses to warning signs. The first was a hierarchy of knowledge which placed greatest value on personal experience and systematically discounted the reports of others. The second was a culture of denial, an elaborate set of beliefs which held that ‘it couldn’t happen here’. The paper shows that the response of the authorities has been to mandate specific hazard management systems which force companies to attend to warnings. The paper concludes that only an understanding of safety culture which includes an organisational dimension provides an adequate way of conceptualising these developments.     

Noah and Disaster Planning: The Cultural Significance of the Flood Story

Disasters are both interesting and infrequent. Thus, understanding them usually depends on stories others tell us. Such stories frame our understandings and imaginations. With those stories at hand, we comprehend reality and history on the basis of what everyone knows. At times, however, it is useful to examine what everyone knows. To create a lasting narrative, disaster provides rich raw material to elaborate. ‘Natural’ disasters involve universal, primordial elements – water, fire, the shaking of the earth. Beyond those physical elements, disasters elicit basic human concerns – death, injury, disruption, broken social relationships, and fractured hope. Ultimate values and meanings can be challenged. Continuity and permanence are challenged. Such crises can lead to new explanations and the reworking of old metaphors. The task here is to take a disaster story, the Biblical flood – often referred to as the Deluge – and to examine its origins, its evolution, and its continuing impact within the Western World. More specifically, it will be argued that the flood story has had a continuing determinative influence on how disasters have been imagined in American society, especially in the ways that imagery has influenced emergency planning.     

土地利用/覆被变化对地质灾害发育的影响研究

2018年8月印度喀拉拉邦遭受强降雨,引发大量地质灾害,造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为研究农业化进程中土地利用/覆被变化对地质灾害发育的影响,探求适宜的人地协调发展模式,以该地区受灾最严重的伊都基为研究区,基于已有的灾害点数据,利用Google Earth高分辨率遥感图像目视解译获取研究区灾害发生前8 a(2010年)和灾害发生时（2018年）的土地利用数据,基于Landsat TM/OLI数据提取的归一化植被指数计算研究区植被覆盖度,对比分析该地区地质灾害的发育与土地利用/覆被变化之间的关系。研究结果表明：(1)伊都基地区灾害点主要集中在中北部地区,分布在种植林、种植灌丛、建筑物、道路等人类活动影响较大的区域,该区域灾害点占总灾害数的80.46%;(2)伊都基地区灾害点的土地利用变化虽然较小,总体变化率为37%,但土地利用变化主要发生在种植灌丛、种植林等与人类活动密切相关的土地利用类型中;(3)伊都基地区植被覆盖度下降率为16.70%,在空间分布上,灾害点易发区域与植被覆盖度下降区域有较强的关联性。     

The differences between actions and desires: The role of religious congregations in national crises and disasters

During the last few decades in the handling of ongoing crises and preparing for future crises, governments and other public authorities increasingly emphasize the important role religious organizations can play in crises and disaster management. Considering this development, it is appropriate to ask whether the expectations by policymakers are mirrored by the religious organizations themselves? This article aims to answers this question by studying both the organizations' desired role in time of national crises and disasters and the actual role taken by local congregations in Sweden during the Covid-19 pandemic. It also aims to study whether this differs in relation to organizational differences and religious affiliation. The study clearly shows that 8 out of 10 congregations believe they have an important role to play in the event of a disaster or crisis. However, despite the high level of willingness, the role congregations take may not always mirror the governments expectations. In terms of differences between congregations, although cross-religious differences are noted, the size of the organization is the critical factor. The article concludes by discussing the disparity between policymakers' expectations and the willingness of organizations as well as the complexity of policymakers assuming that non-profit organizations will help unequivocally.     

A case study of co-ordinative decision-making in disaster management

A persistent problem in the management of response to disasters is the lack of co-ordination between the various agencies involved. This paper reports a case study of inter-agency co-ordination during the response to a railway accident in the UK. The case study examined two potential sources of difficulty for co-ordination: first, poorly shared mental models; and, second, a possible conflict between the requirements of distributed decision-making and the nature of individual decision-making. Interviews were conducted with six individuals from three response agencies. Analysis of reported events suggested that inter-agency co-ordination suffered through a widespread difficulty in constructing a reflexive shared mental model; that is, a shared mental representation of the distributed decision-making process itself, and its participants. This difficulty may be an inherent problem in the flexible development of temporary multi-agency organizations. The analysis focused on a distributed decision over how to transport casualties from an isolated location to hospital. This decision invoked a technique identified here as the progression of multiple options, which contrasts with both recognition-primed and analytical models of individual decision-making. The progression of multiple options appeared to be an effective technique for dealing with uncertainty, but was a further source of difficulty for inter-agency co-ordination.     

Grid-based platform for disaster response plan simulation over Internet

Efficient emergency response for disasters need systematic response preparedness and plan. Distributed computer simulation drilling can help to perfect the disaster response plan. Since the disaster response simulation drilling participants are geographically distributed and subjected to different organizations, they need to communicate via the Internet. The HLA-based distributed simulation has been widely used, but presently it is difficult to implement a HLA-based distributed simulation application that needs resources from multi-organizations or communicates on the public Internet environment. The advantages of computational Grid in distributed resources collaboration and management provide a new development opportunity for distributed simulation. In this paper, a distributed simulation framework which realizes extending HLA/RTI to Internet based on Grid service is proposed. The framework aims to the advantage of Grid technology as well as the reusability and interoperability of simulation modules. The results of experiments of the prototype indicate the feasibility of the framework, which provide a platform for disaster emergency response drilling distributed simulation over Internet. At the end of paper, the future development plan has been discussed.     

A case study of co-ordinative decision-making in disaster management

A persistent problem in the management of response to disasters is the lack of coordination between the various agencies involved. This paper reports a case study of inter-agency co-ordination during the response to a railway accident in the UK. The case study examined two potential sources of difficulty for coordination: first, poorly shared mental models; and, second, a possible conflict between the requirements of distributed decision-making and the nature of individual decision-making. Interviews were conducted with six individuals from three response agencies. Analysis of reported events suggested that inter-agency co-ordination suffered through a widespread difficulty in constructing a reflexive shared mental model; that is, a shared mental representation of the distributed decision-making process itself, and its participants. This difficulty may be an inherent problem in the flexible development of temporary multi-agency organizations. The analysis focused on a distributed decision over how to transport casualties from an isolated location to hospital. This decision invoked a technique identified here as the progression of multiple options, which contrasts with both recognition-primed and analytical models of individual decisionmaking. The progression of multiple options appeared to be an effective technique for dealing with uncertainty, but was a further source of difficulty for inter-agency co-ordination.     

Peoples' Perception and Response to Floodings: The Bangladesh Experience

Bangladesh, a test case of disaster management, has been continuously internalizing lessons learned by the people, the bureaucracy and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), after successfully responding to major natural disasters, particularly floods. The unprecedented flood of 1988 was a great educator to almost all stakeholders in Bangladesh. Since then, it has improved its capacity to cope with disasters despite some failures in its management of the macro-economy and governance. Credit goes mostly to the ordinary people whose resilience and creativity during and after disasters have been quite heroic. This paper makes an attempt at documenting peoples’perception and response to major floods at different stages of the crisis. An illustrative plan for coping with flood disasters encompassing these stages has also been designed and outlined in this paper.     

A decision support system for coordinated disaster relief distribution

This paper presents a simulation and optimization based decision-support system (DSS) to facilitate disaster relief coordination between private and relief organizations. The DSS simulates disasters and plans shipments of relief goods via transfer points to demand points in the affected area. This enables decision-makers to analyze the last-mile distribution of goods by scheduling and routing trucks, off-road as well as unmanned aerial vehicles. Roads which are closed or opened during a disaster are considered allowing a dynamic adaptation to real world conditions and a comprehensive analysis over a rolling time-horizon. A mixed-integer problem formulation, an agent-based simulation, a heuristic-based scheduling and routing procedure as well as a Tabu Search metaheuristic are applied to analyze the given decision problem. Coordination between private and relief organization shows to be especially beneficial if time-losses resulting from closed roads are high and substantial unexpected demand occurs. Furthermore, results highlight the importance of selecting suitable transfer points and the potential of simulation and optimization based DSSs to improve disaster relief distribution.     

Disaster Monitoring of Satellite Image Processing Using Progressive Image Classification

The analysis of remote sensing image areas is needed for climate detection and management, especially for monitoring flood disasters in critical environments and applications. Satellites are mostly used to detect disasters on Earth, and they have advantages in capturing Earth images. Using the control technique, Earth images can be used to obtain detailed terrain information. Since the acquisition of satellite and aerial imagery, this system has been able to detect floods, and with increasing convenience, flood detection has become more desirable in the last few years. In this paper, a Big Data Set-based Progressive Image Classification Algorithm (PICA) system is introduced to implement an image processing technique, detect disasters, and determine results with the help of the PICA, which allows disaster analysis to be extracted more effectively. The PICA is essential to overcoming strong shadows, for proper access to disaster characteristics to false positives by operators, and to false predictions that affect the impact of the disaster. The PICA creates tailoring and adjustments obtained from satellite images before training and post-disaster aerial image data patches. Two types of proposed PICA systems detect disasters faster and more accurately (95.6%).     

基于CWDM和IP网的多层次网络存储容灾体系结构

随着数据信息渐渐成为核心资源以及社会对数据存储安全的迫切需求,高保障的存储容灾系统成为了大家关注的热点和迫切的需要.提出一种基于CWDM和IP网的多层次网络存储容灾体系结构,根据不同的灾难程度,采用了三层容灾来分别应对解决,分别通过本地集群以及相关冗余备份,同城容灾中心和远程备份中心来实现,从而在灾难发生后,能够保证数据的完整,可靠、安全以及各项应用服务的正常运行.     

四川省芦山“4·20” 7.0级地震公路灾情遥感监测评估

四川省芦山“4·20” 7.0级强烈地震发生后,次生地质灾害造成多处公路损毁,快速、准确地监测公路灾情,是应急救灾一项基础而重要的工作。遥感影像信息提取是获取公路灾情的一种有效途径。利用震后机载航空影像与国产卫星影像,结合交通运输部相关基础数据,对公路灾情开展了监测与评估。在公路周边共发现433处地质灾害点,灾害类型以崩塌为主。其中对公路已造成影响的灾害点197处,损毁公路总长度约10 km。另有潜在危险性较大的灾害点63处,对公路构成严重威胁,需注意加强防范。经实地验证,公路灾情信息提取结果真实可靠。信息提取与分析结果已分别在震后第二天和第三天上报到交通运输部,为高效地组织开展公路抢修保通提供了科学的依据。