Review on Regional Water Resources Assessment Models under Stationary and Changing Climate

A comprehensive assessment of the water resources available in a region or a river basin is essential for finding sustainable solutions for water-related problems concerning both the quantity and quality of the water resources. Research on the development and application of water balance models at different spatial and temporal scales has been carried out since later part of the 19th century. As a result, a great deal of experience on various models and methods has been gained. This paper reviews both traditional long-term water balance methods and the new generation distributed models for assessing available water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. The applicability and limitations of the methods are addressed. Finally, current advances and challenges in regional- and large-scale assessment of water resources are presented.     

Application of Water Balance Models to Different Climatic Regions in China for Water Resources Assessment

Uneven precipitation in space and time together with mismanagement and lack of knowledge about existing water resources, have caused water shortage problems for water supply to large cities and irrigation in many regions of China. There is an urgent need for the efficient use and regional planning of water resources. For these purposes, the monthly variation of discharges should be made available. In this paper, a simple water balance modelling approach was applied to seven catchments (385–2000²) for water resources assessment. Six catchments were chosen from the humid region in southern China and one catchment from the semi-arid and semi-humid region in northern China. The results are satisfactory. It is suggested that the proposed modelling approach provides a valuable tool in the hands of planners and designers of water resources.     

基于月水量平衡模型的年径流模拟方法设计及应用

为了实现长时段径流的准确模拟,基于abcd、TWBM、VWBM和DWBM四个月水量平衡模型的结构框架,设计了一组年径流模拟方法.其基本思路为:以L(L为12的约数)个月的累积实测降水量和潜在蒸散发量作为模型输入,通过模型模拟首先得到相应时长的累积模拟径流量,然后每个时长12/L顺次分段相加得到相应模拟年径流量.设计的年...     

勉县水资源供需平衡分析

从勉县水资源开发利用现状出发,以2008年为现状年,对勉县2010、2015和2020年水资源进行了供需平衡分析研究。结果表明,在充分考虑＂挖潜＂和＂节水＂工程进一步完善配套情况下,到2020年,在保证率为95%时,全县水资源供需达到平衡,能够满足勉县社会经济可持续发展用水需求。     

农田整理项目中水资源平衡分析

水资源平衡分析是农田整理项目规划设计的重要组成部分。因此在项目区水资源条件分析的基础上,正确地分析计算项目区内供水量及作物需水量,充分论证分析项目区内的水资源供需平衡,为农田整理项目实施规划设计提供重要依据。     

考虑土地利用类型的黑河中游水量平衡模型

根据黑河中游土地利用方式,划分6种主要的土地利用类型,针对每种类型进行水量平衡分析与概化处理,构建考虑不同土地利用类型的黑河中游月水量平衡模型。利用正义峡1980—2009年月径流数据对模型进行率定和验证,效率系数高于0.65,相对误差小于10%,能够满足水资源管理的需要。基于所构建的模型,模拟了黑河中游不同土地利用类型水平衡各分量的变化,发现黑河中游耕地若采用最优灌溉定额进行灌溉,较现状可节水5.27亿~6.56亿m3,不仅能保证中游的用水需求,还能改善下游绿洲生态环境。     

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden

This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km²) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of T = +1, +2 and +4 °C andP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.     

内蒙古水资源供需平衡分析

对内蒙古2000—2008年各盟(市)的水资源供需平衡状况进行了分析。结果表明:水资源总量不足且时空分布不均、水资源供需矛盾突出、潜在的水污染形势和水浪费现象严重是内蒙古面临的主要水问题,已形成东部工程性缺水、西部资源性缺水的格局;2000—2008年,内蒙古水资源量除2003年、2004年和2008年略有盈余外,其他各年均出现了短缺现象,最高亏缺量达14.46亿m3,亏缺年份占2/3;根据发展规划,预测2015年内蒙古总需水量为209.42亿m3,农林牧渔业需水量为136.75亿m3,比2008年减小2.54%,工业、城镇生活、生态需水量分别比2008年增加84.70%、105.29%、168.15%。     

降水径流特征变化对月水量平衡模型模拟精度及参数的影响

为评估水文模型在变化环境下的可靠性,以两参数月水量平衡模型为例,采用Mann-Kendall法分析降水径流资料在MOPEX数据集中美国本土的104个典型流域的一致性,基于可变模糊理论评价降水径流资料一致性对两参数月水量平衡模型模拟精度的影响,并探讨降水径流资料一致性和流域的气候特征对模型参数的影响。结果表明:研究流域中,92.31%流域的降水或径流资料的一致性遭到破坏;通过可变模糊集评价模型模拟效果,发现降水、径流趋势变化均会削弱水文模型的模拟能力,其中降水一致性破坏是水文模型模拟能力减弱的主要原因,并且该方法能够准确地识别影响模拟能力的次要因素;模型参数C和参数SC均随着流域多年平均径流系数增大而增大,参数C反映了流域的湿润程度,参数SC表征了流域的调蓄能力。研究成果可为防洪、抗旱、水资源规划和管理提供技术支撑。     

西北诸河区水资源调查与评价

西北诸河区1956—2000年多年平均水资源总量为1 275.74亿m3,其中:地表水资源量为1 173.94亿m3,与地表水不重复的地下水资源量为101.80亿m3。西北诸河区水资源总量并不匮乏,但存在严重的水土资源不平衡和水资源分布不平衡。西北诸河区存在区域性缺水的问题,在部分地区十分严重,直接影响着区域社会经济的可持续发展。     

水资源费征收政策的调整建议

吕梁市征收水资源费从1984年起实行，通过调查，得出了征收概况、条件、存在的主要问题，着重提出了政策性调整的征费建议，为促进节水型社会建设提供了理论基础。     

A Semi-Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model and its Application in a Climate Change Impact Study in the Middle and Lower Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Human activities and climatic change have greatly impacted hydrological cycles and water resources planning in the Yellow River basin. In order to assess these impacts, a semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities, vegetation, and soil characteristics. The model parameters were calibrated in 35 gauged sub-basins in the middle Yellow River, and then the relationships between the model parameters and the basin physical characteristics were established. A parameterization scheme was developed in which the model parameters were estimated for each grid element by regression and optimization methods. Based on the different outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), the sensitivities to global warming of hydrology and water resources for the Yellow River basin were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The runoffs are found to be very sensitive to temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. The additional uncertainty of climate change has posed a challenge to the existing water resources management practices, and the integration of water resources management will be necessary to enhance the water use efficiency in the Yellow River basin.     

Integrated Water Resources Management and the Hydrosocial Balance

Abstract

During the last seven years, the author has developed a new analytic framework for the understanding of out-stream flows in any catchment or region. This is termed the area's “hydrosocial balance” because the flows from which it is constructed are hydrosocial rather than hydrological. Until now this meta-theory has been limited to flow quantities. The present paper extends the scope of the hydrosocial balance to issues of water qualities. The conjoint framework is then applied to a case-study of an island in the English Channel—Jersey—well known for its agricultural outputs, its financial services sector, and its tourist industry. The paper shows how general lessons for integrated water resources management can be drawn from the Jersey fieldwork: a world in a grain of sand.     

水资源研究所50 年研究历程回顾

文章回顾了50年来水资源研究所面向国家重大水事实践需求,以为国家及地方水利部门提供服务和科技支撑、解决生产中的实际问题为出发点,开展的科学研究和技术服务工作。重点论述了水文与暴雨洪水、水资源评价、水资源配置、水价与水权研究、水资源保护、生态需水与生态水文学、水资源信息化与数字流域等方面的主要研究工作和取得的成就,展示了水资源研究所雄厚的科研基础和创新能力。展望未来,面对新时期的国家需求和水利发展形势,深感水资源研究所的科研工作任重而道远。     

上水磨沟流域地表水资源供需平衡分析

上水磨沟是湟水中游较大支流之一,水量丰沛、水质好,已成为湟水谷地的重要水源地。根据上水磨沟流域地表水资源供需平衡分析结果,流域年内来水总量能够满足需水总量的要求,但在3—5月出现缺水状态,总缺水量为126.7万m3。湟水谷地水源地径流年内分配不均,已成为水资源利用的最大问题。建设蓄水工程是提高供水保证率最有效的途径,对水源地实施保护、管理和合理开发利用已迫在眉睫。     

滴灌节水工程水资源平衡分析

节水滴灌和节水增粮行动是中央着眼经济社会发展全局实施的重大专项行动,节水滴灌和节水增粮工程项目的实施已成为现代农业可持续发展的必然选择。绥中县2013年省滴灌项目计划发展高效节水灌溉面积6.67 km2,全部为果树,采用管灌模式。通过滴灌节水工程的实施,实现项目区灌溉管网化,有利于水资源的优化配置和生态环境的改善,有利于提高经济效益、社会效益和生态效益,改善劳动条件,减轻劳动强度,促进农业产业化和农村经济的发展。     

江河水资源分配模型

对现有水资源模型大都团结局部地区的不同水源和用户进行研究，由于没有考虑河流区间的径流汇入和河流的连续性以及对水库的水量调配，因此，难于适合江河水资源分配情况，江河水资源分配模型是将水库最优放水流量以及下河段的区间入流按用户或河段进行分配，以使全河获得最大分配模型是将水库最优放水流量以及下游河段的区间入流按用户或河段进行分配，以使全河获得最大效益，在此前提下的两种模型－优化模型理论上科学合理，但不适     

采煤对水资源的影响评价及防治对策

通过分析山西煤矿床的水文地质特征、采煤对水资源的影响及表现形式得出：采煤破坏了含水层位,打破了地下水原有的补、径、排条件,不仅导致水质、水量发生变化,而且破坏了水的动态平衡,给水资源带来严重影响。针对采煤对水资源的影响情况,提出了相应的防治对策,以有效保护水资源和实施煤炭工业的可持续发展。     

石羊河流域水资源供需平衡分析

区域水资源供需平衡分析旨在为水资源的合理开发利用提供理论支持.本文以现状年2000年为水平年,根据流域内的水系分布情况,将流域内划分为西大河山水灌区、六河中游山水灌区、六河中游井泉灌区、红崖山灌区和大靖河系统五个计算单元,对近期水平年2010年的水资源供需平衡进行了分析. 分析计算结果表明:大靖河系统和西大河系统可供水量不足,存在明显的缺水现象.六河中游山水灌区和井泉灌区、红崖山水库灌区的水资源供需基本保持平衡.     

基于生态水文学原理的水资源评价方法

鉴于目前的水资源评价多集中于可见的、可以被直接利用的水资源,忽视了土壤水资源的评价和管理,根据生态水文学原理,把降雨划分为绿水和蓝水,从水循环的全过程和水量平衡的全要素来看,把"绿水"引入水资源的范畴中,作为广义水资源的一部分,把降水看作水资源的总来源。