基于空间信息格网的洪灾损失评估

针对目前洪灾损失评估模型不实用、不准确等问题,作者基于空间信息格网进行了洪灾损失评估研究。首先探讨了空间信息格网的概念;其次分析了空间信息格网的组成,它由洪水特性格网和社会经济展布格网组成;然后选择Intersect叠加分析方法将洪水特性格网和社会经济展布格网进行叠加分析生成进行洪灾损失评估的空间信息格网;最后建立了基于空间信息格网的洪灾损失评估模型;并采用C#和ArcEngine开发实现了基于空间信息格网的洪灾损失评估应用,验证了该评估模型的可行性,从而为洪灾损失评估提供了一种新的方法。     

基于GIS在洪灾损失评估中的应用

论述了GIS技术在洪灾损失评估中的应用、特点及作用,提出了洪灾损失评估的直接经济损失计算法,并以黄河中下游北岸新乡市原阳、封丘等县1996年洪水所造成的灾害损失为例,验证该文提出的洪灾损失评估方法,从而为科学的、有效地采取防洪减灾措施提供一定的参考。     

基于GIS的农村地区洪灾经济损失评估技术研究

以辽河右岸堤防溃堤为例,采用GIS技术,进行了法库县农村地区洪灾经济损失评估,得出该区域家庭财产损失及农业种植损失是洪灾损失的重要组成部分,为乡村防洪应急指挥调度提供科学依据。     

一种改进的高铁桥沉降变形预报方法研究

鉴于传统BP神经网络在高铁桥沉降变形预报中随机性强、收敛速度慢、易陷入局部极值等缺点,本文引入了顾及邻域粒子群影响的改进粒子群算法(IPSO)优化BP神经网络,建立IPSO_BP的高铁桥台沉降变形预报模型,组合模型的预报结果与高铁沉降变形评估方法—Asaoka进行比较,结果表明:基于改进的粒子群优化BP神经网络模型较高铁桥传统BP预报模型收敛速度更快,预报精度更高;预报评估结果与Asaoka方法预报的结果相符,证明了IPSO_BP模型的可靠性和实用性。     

基于GIS的河流水体污染非线性预测系统研究

针对河流水体污染物的空间分布特点,提出综合运用GIS、BP神经网络和遗传算法,实现河流水污染的空间数据管理和污染预测的方法。该方法通过改进激励函数、为权值的修正加入动量项等方法改良BP算法;并引入遗传算法实现BP神经网络隐层节点数、最佳学习率和动量因子等参数的自动搜索,有效地解决了传统模型参数难以确定等问题。并进一步将该模型与GIS强大的空间功能结合,实现了水体污染的海量空间数据管理及评价预测结果的空间图形直观可视化表达,十分便于及时掌握河流水体污染动态、空间分布及演化趋势。并最终以GIS为二次开发平台,实现了基于遗传神经网络的河流水体污染非线性预测管理系统,并在长江重庆城区段河流污染预测应用中显示出良好的效果,预测精度达78％以上。     

基于改进BP神经网络的公共市政工程质量评估模型

基于改进BP神经网络提出一种公共市政工程质量评估模型,并对构建过程展开研究,顺利完成了模型研究操作。实验结果表明,其评估参数准确度高,评估准确率相较于传统模型研究的评估准确率高15%。     

遗传优化的BP网络预测路基沉降

针对传统的BP神经网络存在收敛速度慢、易陷入局部极小点的缺点,提出了基于遗传优化的BP神经网络预测方法并建立了路基沉降预测模型。将该优化模型与指数曲线模型、双曲线模型、灰色预测模型和传统的BP神经网络预测模型对比,结果表明遗传优化的BP神经网络在路基沉降预测中精度最高,适宜广泛采用。     

基于ArcGIS的三维可视化深基坑监测系统的研发及应用

采用Geodatabase作为空间数据模型,并基于Arc GIS Engine二次组件库技术和MATLAB BP神经网络模型,研发出集深基坑监测数据管理、预测预警分析、可视化表达于一体的深基坑监测系统,通过长沙地铁湘府路车站实例表明,该基坑监测系统能稳定处理大量监测数据。     

基于小生境等维BP神经网络的沉降预报

针对传统BP神经网络全局优化能力低、无法学习的缺陷,引入遗传算法中的小生境技术,研究了基于小生境等维BP神经网络模型,同时利用MATLAB进行编程实现。该模型的核心思想是借助小生境遗传算法优化神经网络的连接权和阈值,进而提高了等维BP神经网络模型的全局优化能力,改善了模型的收敛性。结合宁波某大楼沉降监测实例,利用小生境等维BP神经网络、GM(1,1)模型、等维BP神经网络模型分别对沉降数据建模预测,结果表明,小生境等维BP神经网络模型更加符合实际情况、预测效果更佳。     

基于PSO-BP算法对古建筑消防安全评价

基于影响古建筑火灾发生的原因,建立了比较合理的消防安全评价指标体系,并构建了以粒子群(PSO)算法优化BP神经网络的评价模型。通过样本的建立,确定了BP神经网络的网络结构,运用粒子群算法去优化BP网络的初始权值和阈值,再把优化之后的权值和阈值赋给BP神经网络,对其进行训练直到误差满足既定要求。为了验证该评估模型的有效性,最后将训练的粒子群优化的BP神经网络模型应用到奉国寺大雄殿的消防安全评价中。结果表明,此模型收敛更快、适应性更强、精度更高。在古建筑消防安全评价中具有较好的应用价值,实现了古建筑消防安全评价的定量分析。     

Quantification of energy losses at a surcharging manhole

Hydraulic models of sewer systems are commonly used to predict the risk of urban flooding. However, suitable calibration datasets in flood conditions are scarce. The quantification of energy losses within manhole structures is a current source of uncertainty within such models. To address this gap, a scaled physical manhole model is used to quantify hydraulic energy losses during surcharging and non-surcharging conditions. Two different novel configurations were tested; (1) With and without the presence of a manhole lid; (2) With and without the presence of a shallow flow on the surface. Results showed that total head losses were found to increase in surcharging conditions. The presence of the lid also marginally increased total head losses. The datasets are used to assess the performance of a numerical urban flood model (SIPSON) and comparisons highlighted that SIPSON tends to overestimate energy losses in surcharging conditions.     

基于GIS的洪水灾害危险性评价模型及应用

该文利用模糊数学中的模糊综合评价方法,以湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价为案例结合GIS的空间分析技术和建模技术,建立了基于GIS的洪水灾害危险性综合评价模型。     

Assessing the effects of flood resilience technologies on building scale

The impacts of floods on housing are increasing due to more frequent and severe weather events as well as the ongoing development of settlements in flood-prone areas together with the rising vulnerability of assets at risk. Therefore, the improvement of the resilience properties of buildings to better cope with flooding has become a key issue towards more flood resilient cities in European research in recent years. The implementation of flood resilience technologies (FReT) on the individual property scale provides a previously untapped potential to reduce flood damage to buildings due to insufficient transparency of their effects. To overcome this obstacle, the paper presents a four-step extension of a synthetic approach for flood vulnerability analysis to provide evidence on the potential effects of FReT uptake concerning flood damage mitigation. The proposed approach has been integrated in the GIS-based flood damage simulation model HOWAD to support the assessment of FReT alternatives. The simulation of flood damage to buildings in the case study Heywood, Greater Manchester (United Kingdom) revealed the potential of the extended approach to determine the consequences of FReT implementation on building scale.     

陆桥新疆段暴雨洪水灾害及其防治对策研究

以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段为例,基于分形理论,分析、研究了其暴雨洪水灾害的特征,并提出了一些非工程性的和工程性的防治对策,从而合理地预防预报暴雨洪水灾害,达到防御洪灾和降低灾害损失的目的.     

村镇建筑抗洪性能评价系统研究与开发

我国是洪水灾害多发国家,每年都有大量村镇建筑在洪水中严重损坏甚至倒塌,造成巨大生命和财产损失。因此,对村镇建筑抗洪性能进行深入系统的研究具有重要意义。本文首先介绍作者开发的村镇建筑抗洪性能评价系统AEFARUB的研究背景及构成,然后重点介绍各个模块的原理和特点。文中内容可供工程应用和进一步研究参考。     

New Insights into the Appraisal of Flood-Alleviation Benefits: (2) the Broader Context

During the last twenty-five years, new approaches to the appraisal of flood-alleviation investment have developed. This paper (a) identifies some of the key data inputs to this process, (b) evaluates the impact of these on decision choices, and (c) explores the issues concerning the relationship between flood losses and flood probability.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of urban flood risk assessment

Urban flood risk assessment requires quantification of uncertainty that is spatially and temporally variable. This paper presents a new approach to urban flood risk assessment by: (a) integrating objective and subjective uncertainties and (b) providing full insight into spatial and temporal change of flood risk. A 1-D storm sewer model and a 2-D surface flow model are integrated to describe the dynamic interactions between overland flow on the streets and flow through the storm sewer network. The fuzzy set theory approach is used to assess spatial and temporal variability of urban flood damage, and the acceptable level of partial flood damage. The spatial and temporal variability of fuzzy performance indices: (i) combined reliability-vulnerability; (ii) robustness and (iii) resiliency, are generated as the outcome of the urban flood risk analysis. The methodology is illustrated using the residential community of Cedar Hollow (London, Ontario, Canada) as a case study.     

某水库泄洪发电洞围岩工程地质评价及处理

通过对某水库泄洪发电洞的总体概述,对泄洪发电洞施工过程中的围岩地质情况进行了工程地质评价,并根据工程地质评价提出了相应的处理措施,对工程施工起到了积极作用。     

Validating a rapid assessment framework for screening surface water flood risk

This research evaluates performance of a rapid assessment framework for screening surface water flood risk in urban catchments. Recent advances in modelling have developed fast and computationally efficient cellular automata frameworks which demonstrate promising utility for increasing available evidence to support surface water management, however, questions remain regarding trade‐offs between accuracy and speed for practical application. This study evaluates performance of a rapid assessment framework by comparing results with outputs from an industry standard hydrodynamic model using a case study of St Neots in Cambridgeshire, UK. Results from the case study show that the rapid assessment framework is able to identify and prioritise areas of flood risk and outputs flood depths which correlate above 97% with the industry standard approach. In theory, this finding supports a simplified representation of catchments using cellular automata, and in practice presents an opportunity to apply the framework to develop evidence to support detailed modelling.