风险分担利益共享双向调控把握适度--三论有中国特色的洪水风险管理

从控制洪水向洪水管理转变与从以农业抗旱为主向城乡生活、生产和生态的全面抗旱转变是我国新时期治水方略调整的重要标志。就洪水管理而言,在总结已往治水经验的基础上,迫切需要重新认识洪水,更新洪水灾害的观念,探讨洪水管理的运作模式与推进机制。本文在前两论的基础上,进一步探讨治水观念的转变,提出洪水管理要形成风险分担、利益共享的运作模式,并建立起双向调控、把握适度的推进机制。     

关于洪水管理基本理念的探讨

"由控制洪水向洪水管理转变"与"由以农业抗旱为主向城乡生活、生产和生态全面主动抗旱转变"是我国新时期治水方略调整的重要标志与必然趋向。实践表明,对于"洪水管理"的理念,有一个认识逐步深化的过程;对于如何从"控制洪水"转向"洪水管理",存在着把握阶段性目标、路线与进度的问题。本文结合2003年我国水灾暴露的新问题与新特点,探讨洪水管理的基本理念,以及实现从"控制洪水向洪水管理转变"应关注的若干问题。     

松辽流域防汛抗旱工作"两个转变"的实践

松辽流域幅员辽阔、气候复杂、水旱灾害频繁。近年来,按照水利部提出的治水新思路．结合松辽流域的实际情况,坚持防汛抗旱并举,着力推进防汛抗旱工作实现由控制洪水向管理洪水转变,由单一抗旱向生产、生活、生态全面抗旱转变。     

海河流域防汛抗旱工作“两个转变”的实践与探索

海河流域是一个水资源短缺的地区。近年来,按照水利部新时期治水新思路,结合海河流域的实际情况,坚持以人为本、坚持防汛抗旱并重、坚持统筹兼顾,着力推进防汛抗旱工作由控制洪水向洪水管理转变、由单一抗旱向全面抗旱转变,进一步了提高海河流域防汛抗旱工作水平。     

从芦苞水闸的历史变迁浅析治水思路的转变

通过介绍芦苞水闸从修建到重建、改建的历史变迁,从经济社会可持续发展的角度,结合当前防洪工作中存在的问题,论述新时期治水思路的转变:从传统的工程水利向生态水利、环境水利转变;从抗拒洪水、防止洪水对人的侵害向人水和谐相处转变;从控制洪水向洪水管理转变。     

洪水资源化在吉林省白城市的实践及其启示

实现洪水资源化,是防汛工作从控制洪水向洪水管理转变的主要内容之一。近几年,吉林省白城市通过引蓄嫩江、洮儿河汛期洪水资源,缓解农业、生态缺水的矛盾,取得了明显的效益。在开展洪水资源化的实践中,应通过转变治水思路、加强风险管理,去解决工程设施不配套、安全与风险难以控制、非工程措施不完善等问题。     

洪水管理与防汛抗旱"两个转变"的思考

2003年初,水利部与国家防总已经明确提出,我国的"防洪要从控制洪水向洪水管理转变"、"抗旱工作要从以农业抗旱为主向城乡生活、生产和生态的全面主动抗旱转变"."两个转变"成为我国新时期治水方略调整的重要标志与必然趋向.结合江西省景德镇市洪水管理实际,谈谈洪水管理与防汛抗旱"两个转变"的一些思考.     

宁夏吴忠防汛抗旱“两个转变”的初步实践

近年来,宁夏回族自治区吴忠市认真实践水利部党组"由控制洪水向洪水管理转变,由单一抗旱向全面抗旱转变"的治水新思路,认真实践洪水管理理念,有效利用雨洪资源,积极探索全面抗旱理念,不断拓展抗旱服务范围,变害为利、变被动抗旱为主动调整,打破了传统的防汛抗旱惯性思维,提高了防汛抗旱综合能力,形成了全面抗旱、洪水资源综合利用的新机制。     

治水思路变 发展天地宽

传统的治水观以疏导为基本手段，强调洪雨“人海为安”，而在水资源短缺的今天，治水思路必须转变。党的十六届三中全会提出，要坚持以人为本，树立全面、协调、可持续的科学发展观。防汛抗旱工作要加快“两个转变”，即坚持防汛抗旱并举，实现由控制洪水向管理洪水转变；由单一抗旱向全面抗旱转变，为经济社会全面、协调、可持续发展提供保障。“两个转变”是新时期治水思路的进一步升华。我们结合任丘实际，确立了“以防洪保安为前提，以水资源的合理配置与     

我国洪水风险图编制概况及推进洪水风险图应用的思考

洪水风险图是防洪抗旱减灾体系建设的重要组成部分,当前全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目(2013~2015年)进入全面攻坚阶段,随着建设任务的完成,洪水风险图编制工作的重心将逐步从建设管理向管理应用转变。简要回顾了我国洪水风险图编制历程和近年全国重点地区洪水风险图编制项目有关情况,从贯彻落实党中央、国务院新时期治水思路、推进洪水风险管理角度,强调要加强洪水风险图编制顶层设计,全力推进编制工作进展,抓好应用实施,发挥洪水风险图应有效用,为经济社会又好又快发展提供服务。     

洪水管理、风险评估和洪泛区区划

洪水风险评估包括洪峰、洪量、水位和洪水过程.从安全角度来看,洪水风险评估对于水电工程、防洪工程的设计和运行是十分重要的.洪水管理旨在最大限度地减少洪泛区的洪灾损失,因此根据洪水发生的量级和频率进行洪水风险评估、制作洪水风险图对于洪水管理至关重要.目前在印度采取的主要防洪措施有:进行堤坝溃决风险分析、发布洪水预警、制作洪水风险图或洪灾风险图等.根据洪灾风险评估确定不同的保险费用,并据此推行防洪保险计划,可能非常有助于洪泛区的区划工作.地形等高线图是进行洪泛区区划的前提条件.根据这些图集和洪水风险评估,洪泛区能够按照区划进行开发活动的分类管理.     

Floods of the Brahmaputra River in India

ABSTRACT

Floods in the Brahmaputra basin of India are characterized by their extremely large magnitude, high frequency, and extensive devastation. During the last forty years of flood record at Pandu, the highest flood [72,748 cubic meters per second (m³s¹)] occurred in 1962. But, more recently, the 1988 flood, characterized by the maximum flood height so far observed at Pandu, appears to be the most devastating one, causing inundation of 62 per cent of Assam's Brahmaputra valley. The mean annual flood discharge of the river at Pandu is 47,608 m³s' with a recurrence interval of 2.56 years.

Floods on the Brahmaputra have been a recurring feature from early times. They may be attributed to the involvement of a host of related causes of a natural, hydrometeorological, and anthropogenic nature. But, in recent years floods of the river have become more severe, due to a variety of newly-emerged manmade causes, in addition to those generally recognized The flood control measures adopted in the basin since the early fifties are all of a short-term and ad-hoc nature and in fact, no proper floodplain management program is being implemented. Consequently, there have been regular flood onslaughts, adversely affecting the agrarian economy of the Brahmaputra valley.     

中国洪水管理战略框架和行动计划

“中国洪水管理战略研究”项目,针对中国洪水管理现状,从中国国情出发,广泛吸收和借鉴国内外洪水管理的成功经验,对洪水管理战略与对策进行了研究,并在深入调研的基础上提出了中国洪水管理战略框架和行动计划设想,以满足全社会日益提高的水安全保障需求,推进由控制洪水向洪水管理的战略性转变,逐步实现以科学发展观和风险管理理论为指导的洪水综合管理。     

太湖流域洪水风险管理实践与思考

从梳理流域水灾特性入手,针对最近20年太湖流域城镇化进程空前迅猛、洪涝风险特性发生了显著变化、防洪减灾面临新的巨大压力与挑战等问题,指出积极推进洪水风险管理是太湖流域全面提升水安全保障水平的必然选择和发展方向,总结了不同发展阶段的太湖流域洪水风险管理实践,分析了太湖流域洪水风险管理面临的新形势,并展望了未来太湖流域洪水风险管理的发展方向。     

Capacity building for flood management systems: a conceptual model and case studies

How flood risks are affected by infrastructure and institutional arrangements differs among developed and developing countries. This paper compares flood management systems in Indonesia and Japan as they are affected by institutional, organizational and individual capacities. It uses a conceptual model and applies performance indicators to organize the measures of flood management effectiveness. The case studies show that institutional arrangements are essential for effective flood management, but their effectiveness depends on implementation capacity. While infrastructure may mitigate flood damage, its limitations must be recognized. Informed awareness of flood threats and management by the local community is critical.     

Regionalized Design Rainfall Estimation: an Appraisal of Inundation Mapping for Flood Management Under Data-Scarce Situations

Availability of regionalized design rainfall is crucial for flood modeling, particularly over the regions with sparse raingauge networks. This study proposes a new comprehensive framework for generating regionalized design rainfall time series for data-poor catchments involving non-linear and non-parametric optimization approaches. A large set of parametric and non-parametric families of distribution were considered for multivariate rainfall frequency analysis using at-site station data, while a unique design temporal pattern over the region was derived by quantifying the flood causing potential of design hyetographs. The regionalized design rainfall time series was used as one of the inputs to a two-dimensional (2D) flood model. The accuracy and performance of the derived regionalized design rainfall for flood inundation modeling were evaluated by comparing with those derived from different spatial interpolation methods. There was a high consensus of the former with those of widely used kriging and spline interpolation methods. A severely flood-prone and data-poor (no raingauge available within study area) large coastal catchment lying along the coast of the Bay of Bengal, India, was chosen for a demonstration of the proposed framework. The study showed that the framework can be used for extreme events arising due to floods, even under changing climatic scenarios. It further invokes the necessity for incorporating the proposed framework into various commercially and freely available flood models along with other existing interpolation techniques to support improved flood management.     

Flood Hazard Assessment and Management: Interface with the Public

The understanding of how people evaluate and respond to natural hazards in an urban area, and how this knowledge can be integrated in the planning and management process, are becoming very important elements of a comprehensive and participatory approach to flood hazard management. Such an approach demands a clear comprehension of the processes of the risks perception, causal attribution, possible solutions for the problem and patterns of behaviour developed during hazard situations. The willingness of the public to participate in flood management, and the attitudes to previous initiatives also need to be addressed. The provision of structural flood defences can have a major impact on the environment and there has been an expression of concern by many members of the public for the degradation of river corridors. In this context, it is becoming a commonly accepted practice by central or local governments to submit flood management plans to public discussion. Appropriate techniques for interfacing with the public are necessary to support this upsurge of public involvement. This paper presents results from research on public perception of floods, flood management and participatory initiatives in Setúbal, Portugal. An extensive interview programme was undertaken with residents and shopkeepers – with and without flood experience, professionals responsible for dealing with flood control problems and local authorities responsible for decision-making on flood management. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for flood hazard management policy making and processes.     

Flood Frequency Analysis Using L Moments: a Comparison between At-Site and Regional Approach

Water Resources Management - Regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out for estimating peak discharge at regional level over the Kerala State, India, along with at-site flood frequency...     

Two New Non-structural Measures for Sustainable Management of Floods

Abstract

Modern flood mitigation is increasingly non-structural. Well-established, traditional non-structural measures such as zoning, building codes, flood proofing, early detection and warning, emergency planning, flood insurance, etc., appear today as indispensable complements to structural engineering solutions. Advancement of computer sciences and communications provides an opportunity for further broadening of the context of non-structural flood mitigation. Two new concepts, a flood management virtual database and a flood management decision support system, are presented in the paper. Their benefits are demonstrated through the development of prototype systems for the Red River basin in Manitoba, Canada. First, it is shown that the Internet technology is mature enough to support the development of virtual database for a complex domain such as floodplain management. It is also quite clear that this mode of support has many advantages when compared to more traditional centralized database model. Secondly, we concluded that the decision support system approach provides an opportunity to meet the expressed needs of residents living in flood-prone areas for improvement in the flood management and a major change in the decision-making process. A decision support system is envisioned as a tool for analyzing alternative mitigation and recovery strategies. It is proposed in this work as a way of making flood management process more transparent and efficient in reducing future economic, environmental, and social flood damages.     

Evaluating Flood Hazard for Land-Use Planning in Greater Dhaka of Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

Floods are a common feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka and its adjoining areas. Though Greater Dhaka experiences flood almost in every year, flood management policies are mostly based on structural options including flood walls, dykes, embankments etc. Many shortcomings of the existing flood management systems are reported in numerous literatures. The objective of this paper is to assess flood hazard in Greater Dhaka for the historical flood event of 1998 using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data with GIS data. Flood-affected frequency and flood depth calculated from the multi-date SAR imageries were used as hydrologic parameters. Elevation heights, land cover classification, geomorphic division and drainage network data generated from optical remote sensing and analogue maps were used through GIS approach. Using a ranking matrix in three dimensional multiplication mode, flood hazard was assessed. All possible combination of flood hazard maps was prepared using land-cover, geomorphology and elevation heights for flood-affected frequency and floodwater depth. Using two hazard maps which produced the highest congruence for flood frequency and flood depth, a new flood hazard map was developed by considering the interactive effect of flood-affected frequency and floodwater depth, simultaneously. This new hazard map can provide more safety for flood countermeasures because pixels belonging to higher hazard degrees were increased due to the consideration of higher degrees of ranks. The estimation of flood hazard areas revealed that a major portion of Greater Dhaka comprised moderate to very high hazard zone. Only a little portion (8.04%) was found to be the least vulnerable to potential flood hazard. Conversely, 28.70% of Greater Dhaka was found within very high hazard zone. Based on this study, comprehensive flood hazard management strategies for land use planning decision were proposed for the efficient management of future flood disasters.