基于加权线性响应面法的支持向量机可靠性分析方法

针对估算非线性隐式极限状态函数的失效概率问题,提出了一种基于加权线性响应面法的支持向量机可靠性分析方法。首先采用加权线性响应面确定设计点,在线性响应面迭代的同时获得一定数量的样本,然后在这些样本和设计点附近补充抽取样本的基础上,采用具有良好小样本学习能力的支持向量机方法来训练样本,保证了在设计点周围获得更好的非线性极限状态函数的替代。这种方法既保证了对设计点的精确近似,又保证了对设计点附近非线性极限状态函数的良好近似,大大提高了失效概率的计算精度,为非线性隐式极限状态的可靠性分析提供了一种合理可行的方法。     

基于切平面布点的一种改进响应面方法

基于合理选择试验点的位置,该文提出一种改进响应面方法。该方法首先在经过设计点的切平面上布置试验点,然后沿切平面法向量方向移动试验点,并利用设计点和先前试验点的信息布置加强试验点。所布置的试验点既对设计点附近区域给予足够重视,同时又考虑极限状态函数在设计点附近区域的变化趋势,进而提高响应面函数在设计点附近区域的拟合精度。在响应面函数的拟合过程中,该文方法能够保证响应面函数在设计点处是无误差的,进一步提高失效概率的评估精度。算例表明,对于显式和隐式极限状态函数,该方法均具有较好的效率和精度。     

联合分布函数蒙特卡罗模拟及结构可靠度分析

针对复杂极限状态方程可靠度计算问题,提出了基于理论联合分布函数以及2 种近似联合分布函数的结构失效概率蒙特卡罗模拟方法,并给出了计算流程图.采用2 个算例证明了所提方法的有效性.结果表明:所提的失效概率模拟方法的计算精度很高,尤其适用于复杂极限状态方程的可靠度计算问题.2 种联合分布函数近似构造方法得到的失效概率精度相当,近似方法与精确方法结果的差异随失效概率的减小而增大,而且随着变量间相关性的增加而增加.当失效概率小于10-3时,近似方法的失效概率误差较大.     

基于ELM的可折支撑锁机构可靠性及其敏感度分析

 针对大多可靠性工程问题中机构极限状态函数为隐式的情况,提出了一种基于极限学习机（ELM）回归近似极限状态方程的可靠性及灵敏度分析的新方法.通过极限学习机与蒙特卡洛法相结合,利用极限学习机快速学习的能力,将复杂或隐式极限状态方程近似等价为显式极限状态方程,运用蒙特卡洛法计算出机构的失效概率,然后由高精度的显式极限状态方程进行各随机变量参数的灵敏度分析.该方法采用了基于单隐层前馈神经网络极限学习算法,因而在拟合非线性极限状态方程上表现优越,计算精度和效率高.最后以某型起落架中可折支撑锁机构为对象,进行了机构的可靠性及敏感度分析.结果表明：该方法具有高精度和高效率的优点,在工程应用上具有一定的价值．     

基于等概率近似变换的 向量型层递响应面法分析结构可靠度

基于正交变换和等概率近似变换,研究建立了随机变量为非高斯互相关的工程结构可靠度分析的向量型层递响应面法。首先利用正交变换将非高斯互相关随机变量变换为互不相关的非高斯标准随机变量,建立结构总体刚度矩阵和荷载列阵,据此定义预处理器并形成预处理随机Krylov子空间,进而利用该空间的层递基向量将结构总体节点位移向量近似展开,建立关于互不相关非高斯标准随机变量的层递响应面;然后根据等概率近似变换,将独立标准正态空间的样本点转换为层递响应面在非高斯空间中的概率配点;最后通过回归分析确定层递响应面待定系数,并利用层递响应面建立极限状态方程求解结构可靠度。分析表明:该文提出的等概率近似变换方法不仅成功地将层递响应面法拓展到非高斯互相关随机变量下的结构可靠度分析,而且方法简便、适用范围广、计算精度和效率较高,具有良好的全域性。     

《基于动力学响应失效模式的悬臂转子可靠性分析》

基于悬臂转子的动力学响应失效模式,通过对影响悬臂转子安全性的外载荷、几何特征、材料特性等敏感参数的分析,分别建立了悬臂转子静态响应和动态响应的极限状态方程。对每个极限状态方程,使用泰勒级数对非线性极限状态方程在设计点处进行线性化,运用一次二阶矩理论,得到相应的可靠度指标。对比考虑和忽略惯性力影响下的可靠度指标和可靠度结果,分析惯性力对可靠性分析结果的影响,建立针对该类悬臂转子的有效的可靠性分析方法。     

基于Goodman—Smith图的叶盘结构抗共振可靠度计算

为了更准确的描述叶盘结构共振疲劳失效的极限状态以及完成叶盘结构抗共振可靠度的计算,提出了一种基于Goodman-Smith线图的叶盘结构抗共振可靠度的计算方法。通过有限元仿真计算,由对危险点在不同频率激励下的所得到的应力样本,拟合了最大及平均应力关于频率比的函数,瞽根据Goodman疲劳强度设计判据建立了叶盘结构共振疲劳失效的极限方程。选取了材料属性、载荷等随机输入参数,通过模态概率分析拟合了极限方程的响应面,得到了其对输入参数的灵敏度,井计算了结构的抗共振可靠度。     

利用矩点估计法简化响应面可靠度指标的计算

针对响应面可靠度指标计算方法的缺陷,将罗森布鲁斯统计矩点估计法引入到经典响应面方法中对其进行改进。改进后响应面方法,考虑基本随机变量偏态情况,改变了模拟试验中随机变量抽样值的计算方法;直接采用了统计矩计算可靠度指标,使可靠度指标的计算在真实极限状态曲面的某些特殊点上进行;在计算过程中不需拟合近似极限状态曲面和对非线性方程进行线性化处理,不产生迭代误差和累积误差,计算过程简洁明了。最后分别利用改进的响应面方法和经典响应面方法分析了某一矿山大型工程的稳定可靠性,并以蒙特卡洛法计算结果作为准精确解进行了比较,计算结果满足工程要求。     

基于单变量分析的自适应响应面法

由于简便易行,响应面法在结构可靠度分析中获得了众多关注,其中尤以不考虑交叉项的二次响应面应用最为广泛。然而,对于与强非线性相对应的复杂极限状态曲面,二次响应面的近似精度显然不够,从而引起可靠度估计的较大误差。虽然理论上高次响应面法可以解决这一问题,但待定系数的急剧增长导致计算效率降低甚至无法实现。为此,该文以多变量函数的单变量分析为基础,提出了一种合理确定高次响应面形式的算法,可以有效地减少响应面中待定系数的数量,降低了计算的困难,并且针对可能出现的问题提出了改进措施;此外,基于数论选点策略,发展了一类适用于响应面法的数论选点方案。最后,通过算例分析对建议算法进行验证,结果表明该算法具有较好的精度和效率。     

参数不确定性估计的随机响应面模型修正方法EI北大核心CSCD

正确估计实际工程结构中参数和响应不确定性的大小,能有效提高分析结果的可靠性。首先基于概率配点法和回归分析建立随机响应面模型,以表述不确定性参数与响应间复杂的隐式函数关系,快速估计响应的统计特征值;然后提出一种两阶段修正策略,分步修正参数的均值和标准差,以简化随机修正过程、提高修正效率;最后基于一组55块钢板的实测频率均值和标准差,估计钢板厚度和材料参数的统计特征值,验证方法的可行性和可靠性。     

Effect of blow-holes on reliability of cast component

This paper presents a study on the effect of blow-holes on the reliability of a cast component. The most probable point (MPP) based univariate response surface approximation is used for evaluating reliability. Crack geometry, blow-hole dimensions, external loads and material properties are treated as independent random variables. The methodology involves novel function decomposition at a most probable point that facilitates the MPP-based univariate response surface approximation of the original multivariate implicit limit state/performance function in the rotated Gaussian space. Once the approximate form of the original implicit limit state/performance function is defined, the failure probability can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), importance sampling technique, and first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). FORTRAN code is developed to automate calls to ABAQUS for numerically simulating responses at sample points, to construct univariate response surface approximation, and to subsequently evaluate the failure probability by MCS, importance sampling technique, and FORM/SORM.     

结构可靠度分析中的改进响应面法及其应用

在以响应面法分析结构可靠度中,提出了一种区别于通常以插值点为中心展开生成样本点组的新方法:在求解过程中,用插值点逐步替代初始样本点组中距离验算点较远的点,目的是使所选取的样本点集中于真实极限状态曲面上的验算点附近,重新构成下一轮迭代所需的一组样本点,直至满足收敛条件。算例表明,采用新方法可使结构的分析次数显著减少,并改善了对非线性程度较高的极限功能函数求解可靠指标的收敛性。同时,将该方法应用于一座拟建自锚式斜拉-悬吊体系桥正常使用极限状态下的可靠度分析中。     

Adaptive response surface method based on a double weighted regression technique

In structural reliability analysis where the structural response is computed from the finite element method, the response surface method is frequently used. Typically, the response surface is built from polynomials whereof unknown coefficients are estimated from an implicit limit state function numerically defined at fitting points. The locations of these points must be selected in a judicious way to reduce the computational time without deteriorating the quality of the polynomial approximation. To contribute to the development of this method, we propose some improvements. The response surface is successively formed in a cumulative manner. An adaptive construction of the numerical design is proposed. The response surface is fitted by the weighted regression technique, which allows the fitting points to be weighted according to (i) their distance from the true failure surface and (ii) their distance from the estimated design point. This method aims to minimize computational time while producing satisfactory results. The efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method can be evaluated from examples taken from the literature.     

A response surface method based on weighted regression for structural reliability analysis

Approximation methods such as the response surface method (RSM) are widely used to alleviate the computational burden of engineering analyses. For reliability analysis, the common approach in the RSM is to use regression methods based on least square methods. However, for structural reliability problems, RSMs should approximate the performance function around the design point where its value is close to zero. Therefore, in this study, a new response surface called ADAPRES is proposed, in which a weighted regression method is applied in place of normal regression. The experimental points are also selected from the region where the design point is most likely to exist. Examples are given to demonstrate the benefit of the proposed method for both numerical and implicit performance functions.     

基于响应面法和Morgenstern-Price法土坡可靠度计算方法

基于响应面法,建立了一种高效的边坡可靠度指标和失效概率近似计算方法。该法在构造响应面函数时,抽样点计算采用Morgenstern-Price法取代传统费时的有限单元法,大大降低了计算工作量。利用Monte-Carlo随机抽样原理,提出了一种能同时确定边坡最危险非圆弧滑动面和最小可靠度指标的随机搜索新算法。该文给出的两个算例验证了方法的实用性和可靠性,其计算结果同时表明:当分别以最小可靠度指标和最小中值安全系数为目标函数时,搜索到的边坡最危险滑动面相差较大。最后,探讨了土性指标(c,φ)的分布概型及相关性对边坡可靠度计算结果的影响。     

An efficient response surface method using moving least squares approximation for structural reliability analysis

The response surface method (RSM) is widely adopted for structural reliability analysis because of its numerical efficiency. However, the RSM is time consuming for large-scale applications and sometimes shows large errors in the calculation of the sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to random variables. In order to overcome these problems, this study proposes an efficient RSM applying a moving least squares (MLS) approximation instead of the traditional least squares approximation generally used in the RSM. The MLS approximation gives higher weight to the experimental points closer to the most probable failure point (MPFP), which allows the response surface function (RSF) to be closer to the limit state function at the MPFP. In the proposed method, a linear RSF is constructed at first and a quadratic RSF is formed using the axial experimental points selected from the reduced region where the MPFP is likely to exist. The RSF is updated successively by adding one new experimental point to the previous set of experimental points. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the improved accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method compared to the conventional RSM.     

Reliability analysis of automotive body-door subsystem

This paper proposes an efficient method for the reliability analysis of a vehicle body-door subsystem with respect to one of the important quality issues—the door closing energy. The developed method combines optimization-based and simulation-based approaches and is particularly applicable for problems with highly non-linear and implicit limit state functions. The proposed approach consists of two major parts. In the first part, an optimization-based method is used to search for the most probable point (MPP) on the limit state. This is achieved by using an adaptive response surface constructed through an optimal symmetric Latin hypercube design of experiments. In the second part, a multi-modal adaptive importance sampling method is proposed using the MPP information from the first part as the starting point. It is demonstrated through numerical examples that the proposed method is superior to existing methods in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The proposed method is illustrated for application to the reliability estimation with respect to the door closing energy problem. A generalized framework for reliability estimation is then established for problems with large numbers of random variables and complicated limit states.