Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis

This paper investigates the evolution of the world crude oil market and the pricing power for major oil-producing and oil-consuming countries using graph theory. A minimal spanning tree for the world crude oil market is constructed and some empirical results are given. The integration of the world crude oil market is verified. Furthermore, the world crude oil market is characterised as a geographical and organisational structure. The crude oil markets of adjacent countries or regions tend to link together, while OPEC is well-integrated. We also found that the links in the South and North American region and the African region are relatively stable. The crude oil markets in the U.S., Angola and Saudi Arabia take up the core, with a higher ‘betweenness centrality’ and lower ‘farness’, whereas the markets in the East and Southeast Asian countries are on the fringe. Finally, the degree of globalisation for the world crude oil market is becoming further entrenched, verified by a decreasing normalised tree length; hence, its systemic risk may increase due to the future uncertainty of world politics.     

掌握原油资源与贸易信息 优化原油采购与原油加工

世界一次能源消费不断增长,据国际能源署(IEA)预测,2030年世界一次能源需求量为165×108t油当量,2050为215×108t油当量。2030年能源消费中化石能源仍占主导地位。世界石油探明储量中,中东地区约占60%,欧佩克约占76%。世界主要国家原油储量、产量和加工能力分布不平衡。世界原油重质化劣质化趋势明显。世界炼油厂逐年减少,平均规模越来越大,炼油企业和装置结构发生明显变化,炼油工艺装置结构调整步伐加快,加氢裂化、加氢处理与焦化的加工能力还将有较大幅度增长。石油输出国大力发展炼油和石化工业。中国交通运输业和汽车工业的迅速发展推动了炼油工业的发展,但中国炼油工业面临着石油资源短缺和原油对外依存度越来越高的挑战。据IEA预测,中国2015年石油需求量为5.0×108～5.3×108t,2020年将达到5.9×108～6.4×108t,对外依存度将达到70%。     

How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach

This paper examines the dependence structure between crude oil benchmark prices using copulas. By considering several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters, we find evidence of significant symmetric upper and lower tail dependence between crude oil prices. These findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked with the same intensity during bull and bear markets, thus supporting the hypothesis that the oil market is ‘one great pool’—in contrast with the hypothesis that states that the oil market is regionalized. Our findings on crude oil price co-movements also have implications for risk management, hedging strategies and asset pricing.     

The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.     

Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production

The most important contributors to the world's total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world's giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base – giant fields – will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.     

甲醇燃料——最具竞争力的可替代能源

从能源安全和环境问题的角度，指出用清洁燃料替代石油势在必行；分析了各种石油替代能源，指出煤制甲醇是最具竞争力的可替代能源；进一步分析了甲醇燃料的动力性能、毒性和对环境的影响，并分别比较了煤变油与煤制甲醇清洁燃料，甲醇燃料与石油燃料；最后得出的结论是：世界各国都将推行煤制甲醇燃料的技术路线，用于解决石油替代能源的问题。     

Rational destabilizing speculation,positive feedback trading,and the oil bubble of 2008

This article examines how the interaction of different participants in the crude oil futures markets affects the crude oil price efficiency. Normally, the commercial market participants, such as oil producers and oil consumers, act as arbitrageurs and ensure that the price of crude oil remains within the fundamental value range. However, institutional investors that invest in crude oil to diversify their portfolios and/or hedge inflation can destabilize the interaction among commercial participants and liquidity-providing speculators. We argue that institutional investors can impose limits to arbitrage, particularly during the financial crisis when the investment demand for commodities is particularly strong. In support, we show that commercials hedgers had significantly reduced their short positions leading to the 2008 oil bubble—they were potentially aggressively offsetting their short hedges. As a result, by essentially engaging in a positive feedback trading, commercial hedgers at least contributed to ‘the 2008 oil bubble'. These findings have been mainly overlooked by the existing research.     

2012年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

本文在分析2011年WTI国际原油价格先涨后跌再回升趋势的基础上,认为2012年全球经济尤其是欧洲经济仍将处于艰难而缓慢的复苏过程中,导致国际原油市场面临巨大的不稳定风险。综合各种风险因素,预计2012年WTI原油均价会小幅超过2011年,达到95～105美元/桶。另外,应该看到当前国际原油市场最大的不确定性因素当属欧债危机和伊朗问题。     

世界石化行业周期分析及预测

分析了影响石化行业周期的主要因素：全球经济发展形势、原油价格、石化产品的市场供需。指出随着美国等发达国家经济陷入衰退、原油价格震荡加剧以及中东新增产能投产,全球乙烯行业利润将减少,竞争将日趋激烈,石化装置开工率将降低。2008年石化行业景气周期开始下行,预计2009～2012年全球石化工业将处于景气低迷周期．石化行业谷底将出现在2010～2011年。     

The impact of the motor car on oil reserves

The rising demand for oil in the industrialised world is already being driven to some extent by the very rapid growth of car ownership. This is particularly true of the USA, where 50% of crude oil consumption (compared to only 17% in Europe) goes into fuels for road vehicles, mostly automobiles. The situation will be greatly exacerbated if the world car population grows as fast as some forecasts indicate, and if present patterns of fuel consumption per vehicle persist. The real question highlighted is not so much whether the world will run short of oil because of the growing number of motor vehicles, nor whether technical developments can avert such a crisis. The real question is how governments and communities generally will act in this situation.     

俄罗斯油气资源开发及出口贸易进展述评

俄罗斯是世界油气大国,拥有丰富的石油天然气自然资源,集中了全球1/3的天然气和12%的石油资源,油气勘探开发已有140多年的历史,在世界石油格局中占有举足轻重的地位。2009年,俄罗斯石油产量4.94×108t,天然气产量5560×108m3,高居世界榜首;石油(含凝析气)出口量为2.474×108t。近20年来俄罗斯一直保持着100%的石油储量替代率,2005年以来每年发现的新增石油储量均超过当年产量。俄天然气工业保持着完整统一的经营体制,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)生产的天然气占俄天然气总产量的80%以上,从而使全国天然气产量基本保持稳定。俄原油出口贸易2/3在欧洲,其次是独联体等国家。石油出口50%以上靠油轮海运,1/3靠管道输送,靠铁路运送的不到出口总量的5%。成品油和石化深加工等高附加值产品的出口在能源出口中的比例将不断增加。鉴于亚太地区石油市场的庞大以及俄罗斯的能源外交战略,今后亚太市场将是俄石油出口的重点研究方向。俄罗斯《2010～2030年国家石油天然气工业经济发展长期规划》对俄本国、欧亚和世界能源市场的发展将产生重要的影响。     

2019年我国石油市场分析与2020年展望

2019年,我国成品油消费增速放缓,炼油产能快速扩张使成品油产量增速加快,成品油净出口再创新高;在增储上产政策促动下,国内原油储产量探底回升;受炼油能力增长拉动原油净口量仍较快增长、首次突破5亿t,对外依存度依然维持高位。油气体制改革举措逐步落地,石油市场进一步开放、主体多元化进程加快,油气管网运营机制改革取得标志性进展,同时在调整税费政策、完善油气资源开发利用政策等方面出台了系列规定。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对一季度我国成品油需求造成较大影响,但将逐步回复,全年成品油需求预计低速增长,原油产量有望持续回升,炼油能力持续较快增长将推动成品油出口继续增加。     

世界炼油工业发展新动向及我国的对策

近年来,地处西半球的美国、加拿大、委内瑞拉等美洲国家的石油储产量大幅增长,正逐步成为继中东之后全球油气勘探开发的新兴热点区域,全球石油消费重心和炼油发展中心进一步转移至东半球国家。原油资源供应进一步趋紧,页岩气、页岩油等非常规油气资源开发成热点。与此同时．世界炼油工业发展格局也呈现出一系列新动向：原油重质劣质化趋势明显,重油加工难度增大,重油深加工技术主要在技术优化、催化剂升级等方面取得了进展;清洁燃料标准加速升级,向低硫、超低硫方向发展,清洁燃料生产技术向产品高品质化方向发展;炼厂增产丙烯、芳烃等化工原料技术伴随炼化一体化战略加快发展：替代能源技术受到高度重视,迈入规模工业应用阶段。当前我国炼油工业迎来了战略发展机遇期,但面临原油供应趋紧、原油品质重劣质化、环保要求趋严等严峻挑战,必须借鉴国际先进经验,采取相应对策：扩大原油来源,实现渠道多极化和资源多元化;积极应对原油重质化劣质化的挑战,提高重油深加工能力;加快清洁燃料质量升级换代,多产柴油调整油品结构;加强自主技术创新,支撑和引领业务发展。     

亚澳地区油气形势及对我国的影响

亚澳地区天然气的资源潜力大于石油。石油储、产量分别仅占世界的0.9%和3.8%,且近年来呈下降趋势;石油消费量占世界的4.9%,且呈上升趋势。而天然气储、产量分别占世界的4.4%和4.8%。曾是重要石油输出国的印尼、澳大利亚已成为原油净进口国,曾大量输出原油的越南也将变成原油进口国,区内总体的原油进口量将日趋增大。新加坡是区内最大的原油进口国,但同时出口大量油品,出口对象是区内其他国家和东北亚。亚澳地区天然气的出口以LNG方式为主,澳大利亚、印尼、马来西亚、文莱是主要出口国,其出口量将大幅增长,主要输往东北亚的日、韩、中国大陆和台湾省以及区内其他国家。中国与这一邻区有着非常密切的经济关系,亚澳地区油气形势的变化对我国油气进出口将产生相当大的影响。中国从亚澳地区进口的原油将进一步减少,但油品互补贸易仍将居重要地位,LNG的进口会有大幅增长。     

国际原油价格的主控因素分析

现代国际油价有美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格、欧洲布伦特（BRENT）油价及OPEC一揽子价格三大价格体系。根据国际原油价格变化的主控因素差异,可以将其划分为结构性转变、基本面趋势和波动3个部分。油价结构性转变与全球主要资源区和市场区的结构性调整有关,其直接诱因是世界原油供需体系的结构性紊乱．根源在于生产或市场的无序及对定价权的争夺,而结果均导致定价体系的嬗变。原油名义价格由供需矛盾、石油货币价格、边际成本和替代能源共同决定,这四者构成决定国际原油价格基本面趋势的主要因素。石油供需矛盾的日益突出和美元贬值必然导致油价上涨;而大型油公司高成本区的边际成本决定了未来国际油价基本面将围绕80美元／bbl波动：基础能源的垄断属性将可能最终使替代能源与目标能源的竞争关系转变为价格继承关系。波动情况主要受石油巨头或金融投机者操纵,他们通过原油供应链中段的多种实体原油仓储以及虚拟经济所衍生的多种投机括动达到操纵油价波动的目标,而WTI油价最容易受到地区市场因素的影响,从而为各种投机炒作和油价操纵提供了有利条件。一旦油价定价体系存在某种操纵,就可以通过分析操纵者的战略动机实现对油价趋势的合理判断。     

鲁齐炉煤气生产过程中的废水净化

在鲁齐炉生产煤气的过程中,会产生煤气水,而煤气水中含有焦油、清油、粗酚及硫等污染物质,在环境问题日益得到世界各国的普遍重视的今天,煤气水的净化处理也日益重要起来。     

Global challenges in energy

Environmental and security concerns are stimulating global interest in hydrogen power, renewable energy, and advanced transportation technologies, but no significant movement away from oil and a carbon-based world economy is expected soon. Over the longer-term, however, a transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based economy will likely occur, affecting the type of environment future generations may encounter. Key challenges will face the world's energy industry over the next few decades to ensure a smooth transition—challenges which will require government and industry solutions beginning as early as today. This paper identifies four critical challenges in energy and the choices which will have to be made on how best to confront growing pollution caused by fossil fuels and how to facilitate an eventual revolutionary-like transition to a non-carbon-based global economy.     

Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis

This paper evaluates the association between crude oil prices and world food price indices, first within general space and time, and then within the combined time-frequency sphere. Monthly price data spanning from January 1990 to February 2016 were used for the analysis. The Johansen cointegration test conducted within the time domain confirmed the statistically significant cointegrated relationship between crude oil prices and the price indices of food and its sub-categories, such as dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar; however, frequency information was not accounted for. To incorporate both the time and frequency features of the data, we used a wavelet method that has shown that the world food prices, along with the prices of cereals, vegetable oils, and sugar, co-move with and are led by crude oil prices, results that remain relevant from the short-run policy perspective. The outcome of Toda–Yamamoto causality confirmed the spillover of crude oil price changes to the world food price index also in the long run. The paper ends with the policy implications of these results.     

World supplies of petroleum in the 1980s

During the 1970s the non-communist world has weathered, without profound economic disturbance, the oil crisis which developed following the formation of OPEC. This was to a large extent due to the fact that, although the market price of crude had sharply increased, its cost in real terms had remained stable.The factors which mitigated the economic consequences of the oil situation during the last decade are not likely to last throughout the 1980s. It is therefore anticipated that the oil dependent countries will be in a much more difficult position in the immediate future.The conventional approach in studying world energy problems is to begin with the assessment of future energy requirements of individual countries on the one hand and of their energy production based on domestic resources on the other. It is then assumed that, hopefully, the difference between the two figures will be covered by imports of crude.This study tackles the problem the other way around, using as a starting point an estimate of what is likely to be exported by the OPEC group in the 1980s.The conclusion arrived at from an analysis of the political and economic forces operating within OPEC is that OPEC will drastically curtail its exports, maybe by as much as 40%. As a result, the non-communist oil-dependent world will face much more acute and difficult energy problems during the 1980s than it did during the 1970s.     

Efficacy of Bacillus subtilis for the biodegradation and viscosity reduction of waxy crude oil for enhanced oil recovery from mature reservoirs

Increasing maturity of the crude oil reservoirs across the world have led to the production of waxy crude oil which need economical and efficient methods for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The studies on the performance of bacteria in the presence of waxy crude oil is rare. In this study, experiments were performed to understand the efficacy of thermophillic microorganism Bacillus subtilis on the biodegradation of waxy crude oil for EOR applications. Bacterial growth, changes in crude oil composition, viscosity reduction, and surface and emulsification activity have been monitored to evaluate the oil degradation capabilities of the bacteria. This study also presents the effect of temperature, salinity, pH, and pressure on the stability of the produced biosurfactant for EOR applications. The biosurfactant produced by bacteria in the presence of crude oil was found to be stable up to 120°C, 10 MPa, 15% salinity, and wide range of pH, and thus favorable for reservoir environment. The crude oil composition before and after degradation at 75°C was determined using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy and observed to be 60% in one day, while the maximum viscosity reduction was found to be 60% from initial values. Experimental results showed that the bacteria used in this work are capable of surviving at reservoir conditions, and are easy to grow on the waxy crude oil for enhanced oil recovery operations.