Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence

Within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on ‘peak oil’ has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.     

Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts

This paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility. Despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made, it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions, namely: shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil. Other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters. The paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production. It also examines the impact of rates of discovery, reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible.     

Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios

A framework is developed for planning the mitigation of the oil shortages that will be caused by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. To estimate potential economic impacts, a reasonable relationship between percent decline in world oil supply and percent decline in world GDP was determined to be roughly 1:1. As a limiting case for decline rates, giant fields were examined. Actual oil production from Europe and North America indicated significant periods of relatively flat oil production (plateaus). However, before entering its plateau period, North American oil production went through a sharp peak and steep decline. Examination of a number of future world oil production forecasts showed multi-year rollover/roll-down periods, which represent pseudoplateaus. Consideration of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, which could potentially overwhelm all other considerations. Three scenarios for mitigation planning resulted from this analysis: (1) A Best Case, where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2–5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2–5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2–5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.     

The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil

In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality. This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the World. Two models with different ways to treat the contribution of non conventional oil have been developed and tested: a base model (business as usual), which extrapolates the last two decades’ growth of this type of oil into the future, and a model that explores how much non conventional oil would be needed in order to avoid a peak and decrease in the global non renewable fuel production. The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production over at least the next two decades.     

Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the IEA's (2008) forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period.     

Peak oil: The four stages of a new idea

The present paper reviews the reactions and the path of acceptance of the theory known as “peak oil”. The theory was proposed for the first time by M.K. Hubbert in the 1950s as a way to describe the production pattern of crude oil. According to Hubbert, the production curve is “bell shaped” and approximately symmetric. Hubbert's theory was verified with good approximation for the case of oil production in the United States that peaked in 1971, and is now being applied to the worldwide oil production. It is generally believed that the global peak of oil production (“peak oil”) will take place during the first decade of the 21st century, and some analysts believe that it has already occurred in 2005 or 2006. The theory and its consequences have unpleasant social and economical implications. The present paper is not aimed at assessing the peak date but offers a discussion on the factors that affect the acceptance and the diffusion of the concept of “peak oil” with experts and with the general public. The discussion is based on a subdivision of “four stages of acceptance”, loosely patterned after a sentence by Thomas Huxley.     

The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.     

China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models

In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.     

The Rimini Protocol an oil depletion protocol: Heading off economic chaos and political conflict during the second half of the age of oil

Knowledge of petroleum geology defines the size of the World's oil and gas resources, but the reporting of reserves is grossly unreliable. Discovery has been in decline for many years, meaning that production must soon also fall. The decline of oil will have a severe impact on the modern economy which has become dependent on it. Accordingly, a Protocol to match demand against the falling supply, as imposed by Nature, is urgently needed to lessen world tensions and achieve an orderly transition.     

Solar photovoltaic electricity: Current status and future prospects

We review the technical progress made in the past several years in the area of mono- and polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic (PV) technologies based on Si, III-V, II-VI, and I-III-VI₂ semiconductors, as well as nano-PV. PV electricity is one of the best options for sustainable future energy requirements of the world. At present, the PV market is growing rapidly at an annual rate of 35-40%, with PV production around 10.66 GW in 2009. Si and GaAs monocrystalline solar cell efficiencies are very close to the theoretically predicted maximum values. Mono- and polycrystalline wafer Si solar cells remain the predominant PV technology with module production cost around $1.50 per peak watt. Thin-film PV was developed as a means of substantially reducing the cost of solar cells. Remarkable progress has been achieved in this field in recent years. CdTe and Cu(In,Ga)Se₂ thin-film solar cells demonstrated record efficiencies of 16.5% and almost 20%, respectively. These values are the highest achieved for thin-film solar cells. Production cost of CdTe thin-film modules is presently around $0.76 per peak watt.     

A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production

Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.     

Net energy yield from production of conventional oil

Historic profitability of bringing oil to market was profound, but most easy oil has been developed. Higher cost resources, such as tar sands and deep off-shore, are considered the best prospects for the future. Economic modelling is currently used to explore future price scenarios commensurate with delivering fuel to market. Energy policy requires modelling scenarios capturing the complexity of resource and extraction aspects as well as the economic profitability of different resources. Energy-return-on-investment (EROI) expresses the profitability of bringing energy products to the market. Net energy yield (NEY) is related to the EROI. NEY is the amount of energy less expenditures necessary to deliver a fuel to the market. This paper proposes a pattern for EROI of oil production, based on historic oil development trends. Methodology and data for EROI is not agreed upon. The proposed EROI function is explored in relation to the available data and used to attenuate the International Energy Agency (IEA) world oil production scenarios to understand the implications of future declining EROI on net energy yield. The results suggest that strategies for management and mitigation of deleterious effects of a peak in oil production are more urgent than might be suggested by analyses focussing only on gross production.     

欧洲热电业的现状和前景

介绍欧盟热电产业的概况,特别是热电联产技术的发展现状、潜力和前景,分析了影响热电发展的相关政策,同时介绍了一些欧盟成员国采取的各种鼓励措施。强调热电业的进一步发展必须与欧盟能源政策的三大目标相一致：即保障能源供应、提高工业竞争力、保护环境,这些目标的实施对实现经济可持续发展和环境保护是非常必要的。     

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.     

Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario

Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.     

Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an “idealized” Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4 Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.     

A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006–2018 and 2006–2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.     

Solar water heating in Lebanon: Current status and future prospects

The use of solar thermal collectors is an economic alternative for water heating in Lebanon. More than 100,000 m² of collector area has been installed while the market can accommodate more than 1.5 million m². The domestic sector, which is a main energy-consuming sector, stands to benefit the most from the implementation of such systems. Despite the lack of encouraging legislation, the solar thermal market has been continuously growing over the past decade. Both local manufacturers and importers have been active in the field. In addition, advanced forced circulation and collective systems are being used in large establishments, individual house and apartment buildings. Internationally funded demonstration projects using collective systems have been implemented in recent years with promising results. Simplified initial estimates indicate a payback period of 4–5 years while advanced mathematical models (RETScreen) indicate that the most advanced evacuated tube technology has a payback period of less than 9 years at current market prices. With decreasing cost per square meter of installed collectors, payback periods are expected to rapidly decrease. Regulatory support and tax breaks, if implemented, will have a positive effect on the market. The current increases in diesel prices are increasing demand on solar thermal water heaters.     

Nuclear power for sustainable development: Current status and future prospects

Interest in nuclear power has been revived as a result of volatile fossil fuel prices, concerns about the security of energy supplies, and global climate change. This paper describes the current status and future plans for expansion of nuclear power, the advances in nuclear reactor technology, and their impacts on the associated risks and performance of nuclear power. Advanced nuclear reactors have been designed to be simpler and safer, and to have lower costs than currently operating reactors. By addressing many of the public health and safety risks that plagued the industry since the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, these reactors may help break the current deadlock over nuclear power. In that case, nuclear power could make a significant contribution towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, significant issues persist, fueling reservations among the public and many decision makers. Nuclear safety, disposal of radioactive wastes, and proliferation of nuclear explosives need to be addressed in an effective and credible way if the necessary public support is to be obtained.     

Biofuel implementation in East Europe: Current status and future prospects

There is a continuously increasing interest concerning the biofuel implementation in Europe, mainly because of environmental protection and energy supply security reasons. In this context, the European Union (EU) strongly encourages the use of biofuels through a number of Directives. To that effect, EU members follow the Directives implementing various political, fiscal and technical measures and incentives. In the light of the potential created by the recently joined Eastern European countries, an increasing interest is shown in the whole biofuel supply chain within the EU. In parallel, the status of the Eastern European countries domestic market, as far as biofuels are concerned, is an interesting issue, since most of these countries present a significant potential, however still lagging in biofuel implementation. In the above context, the objective of the present work is to give a concise and up-to-date picture of the present status of biofuel implementation in East Europe. The work also aims at identifying the prospects of these countries as far as biofuels are concerned and their role in the EU framework as potential suppliers of a wider market.