U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment,increasing need,and the feasibility of expansion

Investment in energy research and development in the U.S. is declining despite calls for an enhancement of the nation's capacity for innovation to address environmental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic concerns. We examine investments in research and development in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. The large reductions in investment by the private sector should be a particular area of concern for policy makers. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity that are correlated with research and development (R&D) investment—notably in the environmentally significant wind and solar areas. Trends in venture capital investment and fuel cell innovation are two promising cases that run counter to the overall trends in the sector. We draw on prior work on the optimal level of energy R&D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. Comparing simple scenarios based on this range to past public R&D programs and industry investment data indicates that a five to ten-fold increase in energy R&D investment is both warranted and feasible.     

中国能源研发（R＆D）政策研究概要

该课题主要研究21世纪国内外新形势下的能源R&D的政策问题。主要研究评价能源R&D资源配置与投入,同时研究评价能源R&D计划的从立项到促进R&D成果产业化管理,能源R&D计划管理的政策分析是该研究的又一任务。     

Is cluster policy useful for the energy sector? Assessing self-declared hydrogen clusters in the Netherlands

Research on science-based industries has shown that it is important for organisations to be active in interorganisational networks. Cluster policy has been developed as a means to stimulate the development of these networks and thereby the success rate of these industries. Cluster policy is however not a common policy instrument in the energy sector. In this paper, we focus on three self-declared clusters active in hydrogen-related R&D in the Netherlands and address several characteristics of these clusters. We conclude that cluster policy is a useful addition to existing energy R&D policies but that monitoring whether self-declared clusters actually function as clusters and what their contribution is to the overall system is pivotal in reaping the benefits of cluster policy.     

Energy policy and the privatization of the UK energy industries

This article considers a number of issues arising from or associated with the UK government's policy of privatization/liberalization of the public sector industries in relation to the formulation and implementation of energy policy. The analysis presented suggests that, if the policy of privatization progresses very far, there may be a change in the weights attached to various instruments used for the implementation of energy policy.     

Optimal policy of energy innovation in developing countries: Development of solar PV in Iran

The purpose of this study is to apply managerial economics and methods of decision analysis to study the optimal pattern of innovation activities for development of new energy technologies in developing countries. For this purpose, a model of energy research and development (R&D) planning is developed and it is then linked to a bottom-up energy-systems model. The set of interlinked models provide a comprehensive analytical tool for assessment of energy technologies and innovation planning taking into account the specific conditions of developing countries. An energy-system model is used as a tool for the assessment and prioritization of new energy technologies. Based on the results of the technology assessment model, the optimal R&D resources allocation for new energy technologies is estimated with the help of the R&D planning model. The R&D planning model is based on maximization of the total net present value of resulting R&D benefits taking into account the dynamics of technological progress, knowledge and experience spillovers from advanced economies, technology adoption and R&D constraints. Application of the set of interlinked models is explained through the analysis of the development of solar PV in Iranian electricity supply system and then some important policy insights are concluded.     

The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy

This paper discusses the iterative provision of modelling insights on long-term decarbonisation scenarios for UK energy policy makers. A multi-year model construction process of the UK MARKAL-Macro-hybrid energy-economic model, and four subsequent major policy analyses illustrates the scope of this interaction. The initial set of modelling runs focused on the technical feasibility of long-term 60% carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction scenarios, the role of key technologies, and the underlying uncertainties. Furthermore subsequent modelling studies were aimed to generate insights on more stringent targets, and on issues and uncertainties that may make targets harder to achieve. Hence, this paper analyses the large number of long-term UK CO₂ reduction scenarios through a clustering approach on target stringency and barriers to implementation. Robust findings and key uncertainties are highlighted, including the critical role of the power sector, trade-offs between resources, sectors, key energy technologies and behavioural responses, and the increasing level and spread of CO₂ marginal prices and GDP impacts. The relevance and use of modelling insights to the UK energy policy process is shown in the continuation of the energy modelling–policy interface. This constitutes both ongoing model development, and nuanced scenario analysis designed to further explore key uncertainties in evolving policy issues.     

The world nuclear power scene and UK energy policy in 1984

The world nuclear scene is a patchwork, with a crisis of confidence in most Western countries (with France as the outstanding exception), steady progress in the Eastern bloc, and mixed experience in the LDCs — partly because of lack of interest by developed countries in the production and marketing of small robust nuclear plants with suitable back-up services. The situation in the UK is a microcosm of that in the Western world as a whole. It is compounded by the absence of any coherent energy policy other than an unspoken one of reliance on market forces, combined with short-term expediency, as the dominating element in decisions needing to be taken on individual energy industries.     

Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research,development, demonstration,and deployment

Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD³) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD³ programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD³ effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD³. In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD³ is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD³ programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD³.     

Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and ‘exergoeconomic’ techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined.     

From potential forecast to foresight of Turkey's renewable energy with Delphi approach

A Delphi Survey is a series of questionnaires that allow experts or people with specific knowledge to develop ideas about potential future developments around an issue. The Delphi questionnaires were developed throughout the foresight process in relation to the responses given by participants in bibliometric and SWOT analysis conducted prior to the Delphi survey. In this paper, Turkey's renewable energy future is evaluated using the Delphi method. A two-round Delphi research study was undertaken to determine and measure the expectations of the sector representatives regarding the foresight of renewable energies. First and second round of Delphi study were carried out by using online surveys. About 382 participants responded in the first round of the Delphi questionnaire yielding a respond rate of 20.1%, whereas 325 participants responded at the second round yielding a respond rate of 84.9%. About 50% of Turkey's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of renewable energies would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards.     

The challenge to UK energy policy: An ageing population perspective on energy saving measures and consumption

With a focus on the residential sector, this paper explores the likelihood of the UK government meeting its energy targets. The paper contends that energy policy needs to take into account the interplay of four major factors: an ageing population of increasing diversity; a cultural inclination for older housing much of which is thermally inefficient; levels of fuel poverty; and the inexorable rise of consumer spending on leisure related services and goods. Decisions made by older households (both the poorer and the better off) may be critical to the success of energy policy. Among the better off the changing expectations of the baby boomers, with their predilection for consumption and travel, may have particular impact. The paper concludes that much of the reduction in carbon footprint made by older people’s choices in heating and insulation may be offset, not only by increasing domestic thermal comfort, but also potentially by increasing consumables in the home and other consumer lifestyle choices. What could be achieved at best, may be a shift in energy mix.     

A study on making a long-term improvement in the national energy efficiency and GHG control plans by the AHP approach

Owing to the expiration of the national 10-year period plan and the establishment of an efficient energy and resource technology R&D system, the Korean government needs to make a strategic long-term national energy and resource technology R&D plan (NERP) to cope with forthcoming 10-year period. A new NERP aims to improve the energy intensity, reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas within the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), and contribute to the construction of an advanced economic system. We determine the priorities in technology development for the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas control plans (EGCP), which are parts of a new NERP, by using the AHP approach for the first time. We suggest a scientific procedure to determine the priorities in technology development by using AHP.     

Role of energy policy in renewable energy accomplishment: The case of second-generation bioethanol

Renewable energy has been in the limelight ever since the price of crude petroleum oil increases to the unprecedented height of US$96 per barrel recently. This is due to the diminishing oil reserves in the world and political instabilities in some oil-exporting countries. The advantages of renewable energy compared to fossil fuels are enormous in terms of environment and availability. Biofuels like bioethanol and biodiesel are currently being produced from agricultural products such as sugarcane and rapeseed oil, respectively. Collectively, these biofuels from food sources are known as first-generation biofuels. Although first-generation biofuels have the potential to replace fossil fuels as the main source of energy supply, its production is surrounded by certain issues like tropical forests’ destruction. Instead, second-generation bioethanol, which utilizes non-edible sources such as lignocellulose biomass to produce ethanol, has been shown to be more suitable as the source of renewable energy. However, there are challenges and obstacles such as cost, technology and environmental issues that need to be overcome. Hence, the introduction of energy policy is crucial in promoting and implementing second-generation bioethanol effectively and subsequently become a major source of renewable energy.     

The energy policy of the Republic of Cyprus

This paper presents the energy policy of the Republic of Cyprus government controlled areas from 1960 till 2006. It describes the sectors of electricity, petroleum, natural gas and renewable energy sources. It also deals with the marine layers of oil and with environmental aspects.     

Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement

In this paper we structure, obtain and analyze results of an expert elicitation on the relationship between U. S. government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies. While there was disagreement among the experts on each of the technologies, the patterns of disagreement suggest several distinct strategies. Selective Thermal Processing appears to be the most promising path, with the main question being how much funding is required to achieve success. Thus, a staged investment in this path looks promising. With respect to gasification, there remains fundamental disagreement over whether success is possible even at higher funding levels. Thus, basic research into the viability of the path makes sense. The Hydrolysis path induced the widest range of responses from the experts, indicating there may be value in collecting more information on this technology.     

Measuring the social rate of return to R&D in coal,petroleum and nuclear manufacturing: A study of the OECD countries

This paper estimates the social rate of return to research and development (R&D) in the energy manufacturing industry. Our model tries to quantify the positive contribution that lagged R&D has on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the manufacturing of coal, petroleum products and nuclear fuel for a number of OECD countries. Using a panel of data from the OECD STAN database we are able to obtain results suggesting that R&D has a positive and significant rate of return that varies for each country.     

Hydrogen is not an utopia for Turkey

The aim of this study was to explore how the future of technological developments in hydrogen will be shaped in Turkey by using a two-round Delphi method undertaken to determine and measure the expectations of the sector representatives through online surveys where a total of 60 experts responded from 18 different locations. The article discusses not only the expert sights on hydrogen technologies but also all bibliometrical approaches. The results showed that the hydrogen economy will enhance innovations as well as economic prosperities with the support of appropriate policies. Formulating such policies requires a timely and detailed understanding of the latest R&D trends and developments in science and technology policy in all developed countries, and the comprehensive analysis of these developments to enable accurate predictions of future science and technology trends. Therefore, we hope that this study can shed a light on the future use of hydrogen technologies, especially for policy makers.     

The european community second energy R&D programme. A review of performance

The performance of the European Community Second Energy Research and Development Programme is reviewed and some of the important developments are highlighted. The contributions that have been made in the various areas of interest, energy conservation, solar energy, hydrogen, geothermal energy and energy systems analysis, are discussed and examples are given of the advances that have been made.     

Energy saving and energy efficiency concepts for policy making

Departing from the concept of rational use of energy, the paper outlines the microeconomics of end-use energy saving as a result of frugality or efficiency measures. Frugality refers to the behaviour that is aimed at energy conservation, and with efficiency we refer to the technical ratio between energy input and output services that can be modified with technical improvements (e.g. technology substitution). Changing behaviour from one side and technology from the other are key issues for public energy policy. In this paper, we attempt to identify the effects of parameters that determine energy saving behaviour with the use of the microeconomic theory. The role of these parameters is crucial and can determine the outcome of energy efficiency policies; therefore policymakers should properly address them when designing policies.