Comparing push and pull measures for PV and wind in Europe

Successful technological innovation frameworks are based on synergistic packages of technology-push and demand-pull measures. As the massive deployment of premature renewable energy technologies risks becoming very expensive, the debate on the optimal trajectory of renewable technologies should explicitly consider the balance between deployment incentives and R&D efforts.This paper explores this balance regarding wind and PV technology support in Europe. Based on rather conservative estimates, we calculate future deployment costs and compare these figures to the current public investments in PV and wind R&D. We find that, today, for each Euro spent on R&D to develop future technologies, 35 to 41 Euros are spent on the deployment of existing technologies. Furthermore, private PV and wind technology companies tend to underinvest in R&D for various reasons. In an alternative scenario, we assess the optimal R&D efforts for the PV and wind sectors based on a 7% R&D-to-sales benchmark that is typical for engineering sectors. If public R&D efforts would increase according to this benchmark, and hence compensate for the private underinvestments in R&D, pull/push ratios between 6 and 8 could be achieved. This leads us to conclude that the current balance between deployment and R&D is far from optimal.     

Green electricity market development: Lessons from Europe and the US

This study compares the development and implementation of green electricity policies in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States, a set of countries applying a range of policy instruments to encourage electricity from renewable energy sources. A general tendency is identified that policies shift emphasis from R&D stimulation towards dissemination and market application of renewable energy technologies. We argue that in light of the long term nature of policy goals on energy security, mitigation of climate change, and environmental protection, the applied range of policy instruments may be lacking in providing incentives for the long term development of new technologies. Clarifying policy objectives would allow careful selection of policy instruments, including support for R&D. Improved capacity building for policy implementation is also important.     

Technological innovation in the energy sector: R&D,deployment, and learning-by-doing

Technological innovation is fundamental for rendering the energy economy cleaner and more efficient with concomitant economic, developmental, and environmental benefits. This paper discusses aspects of R&D and ‘learning-by-doing,’ the main contributors to technological change that are complementary yet inter-linked. The relationship between the level of national energy R&D investments and changes in the trajectory of the country's energy system is complex; targeted efforts to promote deployment of new energy technologies play a major role in translating the results of R&D activities to changes in the energy system. Learning-by-doing is an important element of deployment, but it remains largely poorly understood. Hence this phenomenon needs to be ‘unpacked’ and its various aspects analyzed in detail, so as to allow better design of early deployment efforts to enhance learning gains. This paper highlights how public R&D and deployment efforts must work in tandem to expand the portfolio, and realize the potential, of new and improved energy technologies.     

Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?

Though the development of renewable energy is rapid, innovation in renewable energy technologies is relatively weak due to the late commencement of renewable energy in China. In addition, renewable energy is mainly introduced into the supply mix of electricity generation, which increases the costs of electricity generation. Higher electricity price will make renewable energy more competitive and call forth renewable energy technological innovation. Based on FMOLS and DOLS models, as well as PMG model, this paper investigates the induced long and short run effects of electricity price, funding support, and economic growth on innovation in renewable energy technologies at the provincial level in China during the period 2006–2016. The Conclusions drawn were: (1) R&D expenditure and economic growth have positive impacts on innovation in renewable energy technologies in the long and short run; (2) Electricity price only has a long run effect on patenting in renewable energy technologies; (3) In the long run, a 1% increase in electricity price can lead to a 0.7825%–1.0952% increase in the patent counts of renewable energy technologies; (4) Electricity pricing system in China does not play any role in driving renewable energy technological innovation in the short run.     

Factors influencing the likelihood of regulatory changes in renewable electricity policies

The renewable electricity literature has expanded in recent years from the analysis of policies focused on Research and Development (R&D) and off-grid deployment to the discussion of policies introduced to facilitate the diffusion of renewable electricity in the mainstream market. This article contributes to the discussion of renewable electricity policies by analysing some of the factors influencing the occurrence of regulatory changes, i.e. the financial sustainability and economic effectiveness of the policies, the allocation of costs and benefits; the coherence of the policies; the size and variety of the coalitions supporting and opposing renewable electricity; and the “Brussels effect”. The importance of these factors is evaluated in the case of three major markets of renewable electricity: Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark.     

Impact of innovation programs on development of energy system: Case of Iranian electricity-supply system

The paper presents further experiments with an extended version of a comprehensive model for assessment of energy technologies and research and development (R&D) planning to evaluate the impact of innovation programs on development of Iranian electricity-supply system. This analytical instrument is a model of energy R&D resource allocation with an explicit perspective of developing countries which has been linked to a bottom-up energy-systems model. Three emerging electricity generation technologies of solar PV, wind turbine and gas fuel cell are considered in the model and the impact of innovation programs on cost-reducing innovation for them is examined. The main results provided by the modeling approach include optimal allocation of R&D resources, induced capacity expansion policies to guarantee the effectiveness of R&D activities, competitive cost of emerging technologies, impact of innovation programs on optimal structure of electricity-supply system and benefits of innovation programs in the long-run.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of enhanced research and development (R&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. It applies a methodology using the concept of Two-Factor-Learning, which quantitatively links trends in technology cost to both accumulated R&D investments and production volumes. The impacts of the latter on the energy sector are then simulated in a consistent manner with the POLES global energy model. On this basis, it compares the total system costs of an assumed increase in worldwide R&D investments that for the EU are in line with proposals made in its European Strategic Energy Technology Plan to a baseline development. It finds that an increase in research efforts at a global level will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, thus accelerating their market entry. When comparing two scenarios that both fulfil the EU's 2020 energy and climate objectives and differing only in their R&D investment levels, the reduced technology costs allow EU support policies for renewables and carbon values to be reduced, and the cumulative (discounted) benefit of the accelerated research efforts is positive in the long term.     

Solar energy in India: Strategies, policies, perspectives and future potential

Renewable energy sources and technologies have potential to provide solutions to the longstanding energy problems being faced by the developing countries like India. Solar energy can be an important part of India's plan not only to add new capacity but also to increase energy security, address environmental concerns, and lead the massive market for renewable energy. Solar thermal electricity (STE) also known as concentrating solar power (CSP) are emerging renewable energy technologies and can be developed as future potential option for electricity generation in India. In this paper, efforts have been made to summarize the availability, current status, strategies, perspectives, promotion policies, major achievements and future potential of solar energy options in India.     

Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government

Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.     

Raising the temperature of the UK heat pump market: Learning lessons from Finland

Heat pumps play a central role in decarbonising the UK's buildings sector as part of the Committee on Climate Change's (CCC) updated abatement scenario for meeting the UK's fourth carbon budget. However, the UK has one of the least developed heat pump markets in Europe and renewable heat output from heat pumps will need to increase by a factor of 50 over the next 15 years to be in line with the scenario. Therefore, this paper explores what lessons the UK might learn from Finland to achieve this aim considering that its current level of heat pump penetration is comparable with that outlined in the CCC scenario for 2030. Despite the two countries’ characteristic differences we argue they share sufficient similarities for the UK to usefully draw some policy-based lessons from Finland including: stimulating new-build construction and renovation of existing stock; incorporating renewable heat solutions in building energy performance standards; and bringing the cost of heat pumps in-line with gas fired heating via a combination of subsidies, taxes and energy RD&D. Finally, preliminary efforts to grow the heat pump market could usefully focus on properties unconnected to the gas-grid, considering these are typically heated by relatively expensive oil or electric heating technologies.     

An economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies

This paper analyzes dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies. The paper has two contributions. The first is to test the robustness of experience in solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind energy to the addition of an explicit time trend, which has been done in experience studies for other industries, but not for renewable energy technologies. Estimation is carried out on the assumption that cumulative capacity, industry production, average firm production, and electricity generation affect experience and thus the fall in price. The second contribution is to test the impact of R&D on price reduction. In general cumulative experience is found to be highly statistically significant when estimated alone, and highly statistically insignificant when time is added to the model. The effect of R&D is small and statistically significant in solar photovoltaic technology and statistically insignificant in solar thermal and wind technologies.     

Renewables portfolio,individual preferences and social values towards RES technologies

The massive deployment of renewable energy sources represents a high priority for Greece in order to comply with the Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources by 2020. In this perspective, Aegean islands especially Lesvos, are endowed with a considerable potential of a portfolio of renewables, a fact that the entrepreneurial interest has already been targeted. However, regulatory attempts for a massive penetration of renewables do not take seriously into account preferences and risk perceptions of local communities where the proposed projects are to be installed. The aim of this study is to investigate individual preferences and social values towards specific technologies of renewables in Lesvos island. We apply an open-ended contingent valuation survey in order to analyze factors shaping public attitudes towards a portfolio of renewable technologies and estimate the economic welfare (Willingness To Pay) of the preferred technologies. We argue that such information is relevant for energy policy design and the establishment of effective measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources.     

Recognising the potential for renewable energy heating and cooling

Heating and cooling in the industrial, commercial, and domestic sectors constitute around 40–50% of total global final energy demand. A wide range of renewable energy heating and cooling (REHC) technologies exists but they are presently only used to meet around 2–3% of total world demand (excluding from traditional biomass). Several of these technologies are mature, their markets are growing, and their costs relative to conventional heating and cooling systems continue to decline. However, in most countries, policies developed to encourage the wider deployment of renewable electricity generation, transport biofuels and energy efficiency have over-shadowed policies aimed at REHC technology deployment. This paper, based on the findings of the International Energy Agency publication Renewables for Heating and Cooling—Untapped Potential, outlines the present and future markets and compares the costs of providing heating and cooling services from solar, geothermal and biomass resources. It analyses current policies and experiences and makes recommendations to support enhanced market deployment of REHC technologies to provide greater energy supply security and climate change mitigation. If policies as successfully implemented by the leading countries were to be replicated elsewhere (possibly after modification to better suit local conditions), there would be good potential to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in providing heating and cooling services.     

Effects of energy policies on industry expansion in renewable energy

Energy policies may lead to important industrial outcomes. This paper investigates the impacts of energy policies on industry growth in renewable energy. Research tools employed include the commercialization process, value chain analysis, and empirical case studies. Different renewable energy technologies and geographical regions are considered covering over 50% of the world markets of the technology fields considered. Market deployment measures that enhance home markets of domestic industries will in most cases lead to growing industrial activities. Irrespective of the domestic market situation, pure investment or R&D support alone to already strong industries in related fields may be powerful to help with diversification into sustainable energy business. Several exogenous factors such as timing, size factors, geography, etc. will influence both the industrial and policy positioning in practice. The results indicate that there are increased industrial opportunities in renewable energy to be captured not only by large countries or through large public resources, but also smaller countries can gain success through clever policies and optimal managing of the commercialization process.     

PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS AND MODULES: TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE YEAR 2000

There is a clear need for renewable energy and PV is a very attractive renewable energy source. The paper describes the different requirements for photovoltaic materials and compares these materials on the basis of these requirements. Silicon in general and crystalline silicon in particular fullfil the largest part of the current PV-market and the technological issues of this materials are therefore described in more detail from source(feedstock) material, over crystallization and wafering up to cell and module fabrication. The potentiality to serve the market and the ecological impact are extremely large and encouraging. Industrial capacity is increasing. Some applications are economic already now at current prices, but the large electrical market penetration can only come if conversion efficiencies are increased and cost is reduced further by accelerating the increase in production volumes and R&D efforts considerably.     

Optimal policy of energy innovation in developing countries: Development of solar PV in Iran

The purpose of this study is to apply managerial economics and methods of decision analysis to study the optimal pattern of innovation activities for development of new energy technologies in developing countries. For this purpose, a model of energy research and development (R&D) planning is developed and it is then linked to a bottom-up energy-systems model. The set of interlinked models provide a comprehensive analytical tool for assessment of energy technologies and innovation planning taking into account the specific conditions of developing countries. An energy-system model is used as a tool for the assessment and prioritization of new energy technologies. Based on the results of the technology assessment model, the optimal R&D resources allocation for new energy technologies is estimated with the help of the R&D planning model. The R&D planning model is based on maximization of the total net present value of resulting R&D benefits taking into account the dynamics of technological progress, knowledge and experience spillovers from advanced economies, technology adoption and R&D constraints. Application of the set of interlinked models is explained through the analysis of the development of solar PV in Iranian electricity supply system and then some important policy insights are concluded.     

History of electricity network control and distributed generation in the UK and Western Denmark

Achieving the ambitious targets for renewable electricity generation in Europe will require harnessing a diverse range of energy sources, many of which are decentralised, small scale, and will be connected directly to the distribution networks. To control the two-way flows of electricity, the current passive network configurations will need to be replaced by active network management. This will require, in particular, innovations in intelligent IT-based network control. This paper draws on research on Large Technical Systems (LTS) and control systems in other sectors to analyse the evolution of electricity network control in western Denmark and the UK, since the Second World War. It concludes that lack of progress in network control has only recently—largely because of the combined needs to provide greater reliability and ‘green’ electricity within liberalised markets—emerged as a ‘reverse salient’ that will prevent the further development of the LTS of electricity supply industry towards desired direction. Breaking the inertia in the LTS and its control systems will require determined government action to promote learning and collaborative search for solutions. The UK might well draw lessons from the Danish pragmatism in fostering innovation through targeted support to collaborative R&D efforts towards sustainability objectives.     

Is there a relationship between public expenditures in energy R&D and carbon emissions per GDP? An empirical investigation

Energy innovation plays a crucial role in the reduction of carbon emissions. In order to design climate and energy policies that promote the development, deployment and diffusion of new energy technologies, policy makers not only require a theoretical understanding of the energy innovation system, but also empirical evidence of the effects that policy actions have had. This paper focuses on public energy R&D, a traditional and controversial option among the various climate technology policies, and empirically analyses its relationship with carbon emissions per GDP (i.e. carbon intensity) and its two components: energy intensity and the carbon factor. Evidence of the causality links that have prevailed in 13 advanced economies over the 1980–2004 period has been obtained through dynamic panel models. Our findings confirm that government R&D spending is not sufficient by itself to boost the energy innovation process. Public energy R&D has been successful in improving energy efficiency at country level, but it has failed to have a significant impact on the carbon factor and carbon intensity. At the same time the formation of energy R&D budgets is found to be significantly affected by carbon trends.     

Investment in oil and gas field materials technology – the key to a secure energy supply

Abstract

Many national and international programmes have renewable energies as a prime focus for long term R&D investment. This focus arises from an environmental perspective and the objective of a carbon abatement energy society, and may also be fuelled by often over-dramatised reports of declining oil and gas reserves. It is argued that investment in oil and gas must be a vital component of R&D planning and energy policy if energy supplies are to be assured, and that advances in materials and materials technologies will be key to these efforts.