Methodology proposal for territorial distribution of greenhouse gas reduction percentages in the EU according to the strategic energy policy goal

A 20% reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 is one of the main objectives of the European Union (EU) energy policy. However, this overall objective does not specify how it should be distributed among the Member States, according to each one’s particular characteristics. Consequently, in this article a non-linear distribution methodology with dynamic objective targets for reducing GHG emissions is proposed. The goal of this methodology is to promote debate over the weighting of these overall objectives, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. First, an analysis is conducted of the situation of greenhouse gas emissions in the reference year (1990) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing them by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1990 to 2007. Then, the methodology proposed was applied for the year 2020 on two territorial aggregation levels following the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the EU-15 and EU-27 member countries and on a regional level in 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities and Cities (NUTS-2). Weighting is done based on CO₂ intensity, GHG emissions per capita and GHG emissions per GDP. Finally, several recommendations are provided for the formulation of energy policies.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

GHG reduction potential of changes in consumption patterns and higher quality levels: Evidence from Swiss household consumption survey

An effective consumer-oriented climate policy requires knowing the GHG reduction potential of sustainable consumption. The aim of this study is to draw lessons from differences in consumption between households with high and low GHG emissions. We evaluate a survey of 14,500 households and use a method that allows measuring changes in price level of consumption. Comparing the 10% of households with the highest GHG emissions per capita with the lowest 10% – controlling for differences in expenditure level and household structure – we find a range 5–17 tons of CO₂-equivalent per capita and year. The observed differences stem mainly from heating, electricity use, car use, and travel by aircraft. Consumption patterns with low GHG emissions are characterized by less spending on mobility, but more on leisure and quality oriented consumption (leading to higher prices per unit). Further characteristics are: a higher share of organic food, low meat consumption and fewer detached single family houses. Our findings imply that a significant reduction in GHG emissions would be possible by adopting real-world consumption patterns observable in society. The twin challenge is to shift consumption towards more climate friendly patterns, and to prevent any trend towards high emitting consumption patterns.     

Electricity trade and GHG emissions: Assessment of Quebec's hydropower in the Northeastern American market (2006–2008)

Worldwide electricity sector reforms open up electricity markets and increase trades. This has environmental consequences as exports and imports either increase or decrease local production and consequently greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper's objective is to illustrate the importance of electricity trade's impact on GHG emissions by providing an estimate of the net GHG emissions resulting from these trades. To achieve this objective, Quebec hourly electricity exchanges with adjacent jurisdictions were examined over the 2006–2008 period. In order to associate a specific GHG emission quantity to electricity trades, hourly marginal electricity production technologies were identified and validated using the Ontario hourly output per power plant and information released in the Quebec adjacent system operator reports. It is estimated that over three years, imports into Quebec were responsible for 7.7 Mt of GHG, while Quebec hydropower exports avoided 28.3 Mt of GHG emissions. Hence, the net result is 20.6 Mt of avoided emissions over 2006–2008, or about 7 Mt per year, which corresponds to more than 8% of the Quebec yearly GHG emissions. When GHG emissions from all life cycle stages (resource extraction to end-of-life) are accounted for, the net avoided GHG emissions increase by 35%, to 27.9 Mt.     

Energy balance and greenhouse gas emissions of biodiesel production from oil derived from wastewater and wastewater sludge

It has been recognized that oils derived from microorganism and wastewater sludge are comparable replacements of traditional biodiesel production feedstock, which is energy intensive and costly. Energy balance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential factors to assess the feasibility of the production. This study evaluated the energy balance and GHG emissions of biodiesel production from microbial and wastewater sludge oil. The results show that energy balance and GHG emissions of biodiesel produced from microbial oil are significantly impacted by the cultivation methods and carbon source. For phototrophic microorganism (microalgae), open pond system gives 3.6 GJ higher energy gain than photo bioreactor system in per tonne biodiesel produced. For heterotrophic microorganisms, the energy balance depends on the type of carbon source. Three carbon sources including starch, cellulose, and starch industry wastewater (SIW) used in this study showed that utilization of SIW as carbon source provided the most favorable energy balance. When oil extracted from municipal sludge is used for biodiesel production, the energy gain is up to 29.7 GJ per tonne biodiesel produced, which is higher than the energy gain per tonne of biodiesel produced from SIW cultivated microbes. GHG emissions study shows that biodiesel production from microbes or sludge oil is a net carbon dioxide capture process except when starch is used as raw material for microbial oil production, and the highest capture is around 40 tonnes carbon dioxide per tonne of biodiesel produced.     

An innovative indicator of carbon dioxide emissions for developing countries: A study of Taiwan

Ever since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, the issues of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have drawn more and more attention globally. However, the major concern of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce the overall GHG emissions might be inaccessible for most developing countries, which rely heavily on the energy-intensive industries for exports and economic growth. In this study, an innovative indicator of net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which excludes the emissions corresponding to the exports, is proposed to explicitly reveal domestic situations of developing countries. By introducing the indicator of net CO₂ emissions to top five energy-intensive industries in Taiwan, the analysis indicates that the increase in CO₂ emissions from 1999 to 2004 is mostly contributed by the expanded exports rather than the domestic demand. The distinct growth patterns of the apparent and net CO₂ emissions also imply the transformation of the industrial sector. It is expected that, for developing countries, the concept of net emissions may not only serve as a proper interim target during the process of international negotiations over GHG reductions but also highlights the prominence of addressing the emissions from the industrial sector as the top priority.     

CO2 emissions structure of Indian economy

This paper analyses carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the Indian economy by producing sectors and due to household final consumption. The analysis is based on an Input–Output (IO) table and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the year 2003–04 that distinguishes 25 sectors and 10 household classes. Total emissions of the Indian economy in 2003–04 are estimated to be 1217 million tons (MT) of CO₂, of which 57% is due to the use of coal and lignite. The per capita emissions turn out to be about 1.14 tons. The highest direct emissions are due to electricity sector followed by manufacturing, steel and road transportation. Final demands for construction and manufacturing sectors account for the highest emissions considering both direct and indirect emissions as the outputs from almost all the energy-intensive sectors go into the production process of these two sectors. In terms of life style differences across income classes, the urban top 10% accounts for emissions of 3416 kg per year while rural bottom 10% class accounts for only 141 kg per year. The CO₂ emission embodied in the consumption basket of top 10% of the population in urban India is one-sixth of the per capita emission generated in the US.     

An estimation of energy and GHG emission intensity caused by energy consumption in Korea: An energy IO approach

In Korea, 97% of the energy resources are imported. The growth rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission per capita in the country was the highest in the world during 1990 and 2004. Moreover, 83% of the domestic GHG emissions stemmed from energy use in the year 2004. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop an econometric model for energy intensity and GHG emission intensity in view of the poor energy endowment and environmental situation in Korea.     

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District,Shanghai, China

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO₂ emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO₂ emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO₂ emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO₂ emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.     

Convergence and determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia: A regional analysis

Australia's emissions from fossil fuels and industry have been on the rise since 2014 and may fall short of its required 2030 Paris Agreement target of 26–28% (below 2005 levels). While much effort has been made by various states and territories in setting emission targets and the uptake in renewable energy sources, significant inroads need to occur in order to meet the 1.5 °C target. Understanding the dynamics of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the regional level is thus essential for policymakers in achieving emission targets given the decomposition of industry at the regional level. We investigate the convergence process of three significant GHG emissions – carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane emissions – at regional level over the period 1990 to 2017. Our results identify multiple convergence clusters in GHG emissions, highlighting the need for tailored policies at the regional level. To gain an understanding in the factors driving these results, we analysed the determinants of the convergence process. We identified that state income per capita, urbanisation, and international trade plays a crucial in the convergence path off GHG emissions.     

Impact of battery weight and charging patterns on the economic and environmental benefits of plug-in hybrid vehicles

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) technology is receiving attention as an approach to reducing US dependency on foreign oil and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. PHEVs require large batteries for energy storage, which affect vehicle cost, weight, and performance. We construct PHEV simulation models to account for the effects of additional batteries on fuel consumption, cost, and GHG emissions over a range of charging frequencies (distance traveled between charges). We find that when charged frequently, every 20 miles or less, using average US electricity, small-capacity PHEVs are less expensive and release fewer GHGs than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) or conventional vehicles. For moderate charging intervals of 20–100 miles, PHEVs release fewer GHGs, but HEVs have lower lifetime costs. High fuel prices, low-cost batteries, or high carbon taxes combined with low-carbon electricity generation would make small-capacity PHEVs cost competitive for a wide range of drivers. In contrast, increased battery specific energy or carbon taxes without decarbonization of the electricity grid would have limited impact. Large-capacity PHEVs sized for 40 or more miles of electric-only travel do not offer the lowest lifetime cost in any scenario, although they could minimize GHG emissions for some drivers and provide potential to shift air pollutant emissions away from population centers. The tradeoffs identified in this analysis can provide a space for vehicle manufacturers, policymakers, and the public to identify optimal decisions for PHEV design, policy and use. Given the alignment of economic, environmental, and national security objectives, policies aimed at putting PHEVs on the road will likely be most effective if they focus on adoption of small-capacity PHEVs by urban drivers who can charge frequently.     

Getting ready for carbon capture and storage through a ‘CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Ready Hub’: A case study of Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, China

China has been building approximately 1 GW of new coal-fired power plant per week since 2005. Power plants now in construction may continue to operate until 2040. “CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Ready” enables and eases the subsequent retrofitting of a plant to be able to capture carbon dioxide later in that plant’s lifetime. Building on the definitions of the IEA GHG (IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme) and GCCSI (Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute), this study suggests a novel concept ‘CCS Ready Hub’ for implementing CCS Ready. A CCS Ready Hub not only includes a number of new coal-fired power plants but also integrates other existing stationary carbon dioxide emissions sources into the planning for potential infrastructure. We conducted a case study of Guangdong province in China with a detailed engineering and economic assessment in Shenzhen City. The study first reviewed the potential storage sites and analysed the existing stationary emissions sources in Guangdong using a GIS (Geographic Information System) approach. Thereafter, we focused on investigating the economic benefits of a ‘CCS Ready Hub’ at a potential 4 GW new USCPC (ultra-supercritical pulverised coal-fired) power plant in Shenzhen. Using the cost of carbon dioxide avoidance in 2020 as a criterion, we found that the concept of a CCS Ready Hub to finance CCS Ready at a regional planning level rather than at an individual plant is preferred since it significantly reduces the overall cost of building an integrated CCS system to reduce carbon emissions in the future.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

The emissions,energy consumption,and growth nexus: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states

This study examines the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and real output within a panel vector error correction model for eleven countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States over the period 1992–2004. In the long-run, energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions while real output follows an inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to carbon dioxide emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.     

Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen and other selected fuels

A streamlined life cycle assessment (LCA) is reported of a nuclear-based copper–chlorine (Cu–Cl) hydrogen production cycle, including estimates of fossil fuel energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Calculations revealed that the process requires 474 kJ of fossil fuel energy per MJ of hydrogen, which is less than for other hydrogen production processes. Moreover, GHG emissions are estimated to be 27 gCO₂e per MJ of hydrogen, which is only slightly higher than the corresponding value for wind-based hydrogen production. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the performance of the system could be further improved at higher yields of hydrogen. Although the system significantly outperformed fossil-based gasoline and hydrogen production pathways, the integrated nuclear and thermochemical cycle still requires significant research and development before commercialization is possible.     

The “decarbonization” of the world’s energy matrix

“Decarbonizing” the world’s energy matrix is the strategy being implemented by most countries to reduce CO₂ emissions and thus contribute to achieve the ultimate objectives of the Climate Convention. The evolution of the carbon intensity (I_c=CO₂/GDP) in the period 1990–2007 was encouraging but not sufficient to reduce the growth of carbon emission. As a result of COP-15 in Copenhagen these countries (and regions) made pledges that could lead to more reduction: for the United States a 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2020 below the level of 2005; for the European Union a 20% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2020 below the 1990 level; for China a 40–45% reduction in the carbon intensity and for India a 20–25% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020. We analyzed the consequences of such pledges and concluded that the expected yearly rate of decrease of the carbon intensity follows basically the “business as usual” trend in the period 1990–2007 and will, in all likelihood, be insufficient to reduce carbon emissions up to 2020.     

Analysis on influence factors of China's CO2 emissions based on Path–STIRPAT model

With the intensification of global warming and continued growth in energy consumption, China is facing increasing pressure to cut its CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions down. This paper discusses the driving forces influencing China's CO₂ emissions based on Path–STIRPAT model—a method combining Path analysis with STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) model. The analysis shows that GDP per capita (A), industrial structure (IS), population (P), urbanization level (R) and technology level (T) are the main factors influencing China's CO₂ emissions, which exert an influence interactively and collaboratively. The sequence of the size of factors' direct influence on China's CO₂ emission is A>T>P>R>IS, while that of factors' total influence is A>R>P>T>IS. One percent increase in A, IS, P, R and T leads to 0.44, 1.58, 1.31, 1.12 and −1.09 percentage change in CO₂ emission totally, where their direct contribution is 0.45, 0.07, 0.63, 0.08, 0.92, respectively. Improving T is the most important way for CO₂ reduction in China.     

How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development

In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. This has raised the issue of how to allocate the CO₂ reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target. To meet this objective, the following aspects may be taken into consideration: equity principles, ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; intensity reduction target fulfillment; and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces. This paper selects per capita GDP, accumulated fossil fuel related CO₂ emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity, responsibility and potential, respectively. Based on these three indicators, a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed. As decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden, we allocate different weights to the indicators, analyzing the results using cluster analysis. The following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden: the reduction potential of various regions; implementation potential of the plans; and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model.     

Greenhouse-gas emissions from solar electric- and nuclear power: A life-cycle study

Solar- and nuclear-electricity-generation technologies often are deemed “carbon-free” because their operation does not generate any carbon dioxide. However, this is not so when considering their entire lifecycle of energy production; carbon dioxide and other gases are emitted during the extraction, processing, and disposal of associated materials. We determined the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, namely, CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and chlorofluorocarbons due to materials and energy flows throughout all stages of the life of commercial technologies for solar-electric- and nuclear-power generation, based on data from 12 photovoltaic (PV) companies, and reviews of nuclear-fuel life cycles in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Previous GHG estimates vary widely, from 40 to 180 CO₂-eq./kWh for PV, and 3.5–100 CO₂-eq./kWh for nuclear power. Country-specific parameters account for many of these differences, which are exacerbated by outdated information. We conclude, instead, that lifetime GHG emissions from solar- and nuclear-fuel cycles in the United States are comparable under actual production conditions and average solar irradiation, viz., 22–49 g CO₂-eq./kWh (average US), 17–39 g CO₂-eq./kWh (south west) for solar electric, and 16–55 g CO₂-eq./kWh for nuclear energy. However, several factors may significantly change this picture within the next 5 years, and there are unanswered questions about the nuclear fuel cycle that warrant further analyses.     

A comparative study on the energy policies in Japan and Malaysia in fulfilling their nations’ obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol

Global warming and the associated changes in the world climate pattern have been accepted world wide as the gravest threat to humanity in the 20th century. To mitigate the impacts of global warming, the Kyoto Protocol was established in 1997 with the objective of reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, in particular carbon dioxide (CO₂), by 5.2% below 1990 levels. Developed nations that ratified the Protocol are committed to GHG reduction targets while developing nations are encouraged to reduce GHG emissions on a voluntary basis. Since most of the GHGs emissions come from the energy sector, energy policy plays an important role in fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This year marks the beginning of the commitment period for the 2012 Kyoto Protocol. In this case, it would be worthwhile to compare the energy policies in Malaysia and Japan as these nations move towards fulfilling their obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol; bearing in mind that both countries ratified the Protocol, but that Japan commits a reduction target of 6% while Malaysia bears no obligation. Based on the comparison, recommendations were made on how a developing nation like Malaysia could adopt the policies implemented in Japan to suit local conditions and contribute significantly to GHG reduction.