Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country,sector, and cost

In this study, emission reduction potentials in greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed by country, sector, and cost using a GHG emission reduction assessment model with high resolutions with respect to region and technology and high consistency in terms of assumptions, interrelationships, and solution principles. Model analyses show that large potential reductions can be achieved at low cost in developing countries and power sectors. In addition, cost-efficient emission reductions were evaluated for some international emission reduction targets that have been derived on the basis of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities among developed and developing countries. If (1) emission reduction measures at negative costs and below 50 $/tCO₂ for developed countries, (2) intensity improvement measures for selected sectors at negative costs and below 20 $/tCO₂ for major developing countries, and (3) all emission reduction measures with negative costs for other developing countries in 2020 are adopted, then emission reductions of 8.9, 14.8, and 27.7 GtCO₂ eq./yr compared to the technology-frozen case can be expected in developed countries, major developing countries, and globally, corresponding to a 11% decrease, 40% increase, and 17% increase from 2005 levels, respectively. Large-scale emission reductions can be achieved even if CO₂-intensity targets for major sectors are assumed for major developing countries.     

Price determination of ETS allowances through the switching level of coal and gas in the power sector

This paper discusses the opportunities that exist for reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by switching from coal to gas‐fired units in electricity generation, ‘forced’ by the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) price level of CO₂. It attempts to find efficient GHG cost profiles leading to a reasonable GHG emission reduction. In a methodological demonstration case (an electricity generation system consisting of two coal and two gas‐fired power plants), we demonstrate how a GHG emission cost can lead to a certain switch of power plants with an accompanying GHG emission reduction. This GHG emission cost is dependent on the load level. The switching point method is applied to an electricity generation system similar to the Belgian one. It is found that the greatest opportunities for GHG emission reductions are situated in the summer season. By switching only the coal‐fired units with the combined cycle (CC) gas‐fired units, a significant GHG emission reduction is possible at a modest cost. With the simulation tool E‐Simulate, the effect of a GHG emission cost in the summer season is investigated. A potential GHG emission reduction of 9.5% in relation to the case where there is no cost linked to GHG emission is possible at a relative low cost. When implementing a GHG cost in winter season, a smaller GHG reduction occurs while costs are higher. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic and greenhouse gas emission analysis of bioenergy production using multi-product crops—case studies for the Netherlands and Poland

In the face of climate change that may result from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the scarcity of agricultural land and limited competitiveness of biomass energy on the market, it is desirable to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Multi-product crops, i.e. using a crop partially for energy and partially for material purposes can possibly create additional incomes as well as additional GHG emission reductions. In this study, the performance of several multi-product crop systems is compared to energy crop systems, focused on the costs of primary biomass fuel costs and GHG emission reductions per hectare of biomass production. The sensitivity of the results is studied by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. The multi-product crops studied are wheat, hemp and poplar in the Netherlands and Poland. GHG emission reductions of these multi-product crop systems are found to be between 0.2 and 2.4 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in Poland and 0.9 and 7.8 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in the Netherlands, while primary biomass fuel costs range from −4.1 to −1.7 €/GJ in the Netherlands and from 0.1 to 9.8 €/GJ in Poland. Results show that the economic attractiveness of multi-product crops depends strongly on material market prices, crop production costs and crop yields. Net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are influenced strongly by the specific GHG emission reduction of material use, reference energy systems and GHG emissions of crop production. Multi-product use of crops can significantly decrease primary biomass fuel costs. However, this does not apply in general, but depends on the kind of crops and material uses. For the examples analysed here, net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are not lowered by multi-product use of crops. Consequently, multi-product crops are not for granted an option to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Further research on the feasibility of large-scale multi-product crop systems and their impact on land and material markets is desirable.     

Miscanthus and willow heat production—An effective land-use strategy for greenhouse gas emission avoidance in Ireland?

Recent decoupling of EU direct payments from agricultural production, to land-area-based payments, has accelerated the national trend of declining livestock numbers, presenting opportunities for new agricultural products. This paper uses life-cycle analyses to quantify the national magnitude and area-based efficiency of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions possible from utilising indigenously grown willow and Miscanthus as heating fuels in domestic/commercial premises. Willow and Miscanthus fuel-chain emissions were calculated at 0.045 and 0.062 kg CO₂ eq. kWh_th, compared with 0.248, 0.331 and 0.624 kg CO₂ eq. kWh_th for gas, oil and electric heat, respectively. Long-term soil C sequestration where willow and Miscanthus are grown on tillage land could exceed fuel-chain emissions, resulting in heat production better than C-neutral. Net GHG emission reductions ranged from 7671 kg CO₂ eq. ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ where willow displaced grassland and gas to 34,187 kg CO₂ eq. ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ where Miscanthus displaced set-aside and electric heat. A simple, indicative scenario assumed that energy-crops were grown on set-aside and destocked grassland in the ratio of 1:2, and displaced a total of 4728 GWh_th combined gas, oil and electric heat. Consequent net GHG emission reductions arising from sole utilisation of either willow or Miscanthus equated to 2.6% or 2.5% of 2004 national emissions, and required just 2.9% or 2.1% of Ireland's agricultural land area. Net total emission reductions were relatively insensitive to variation in yield and cultivation emissions, but large reductions associated with electric-heat displacement will decline as electricity production becomes less GHG-intensive, and may not be representative of other countries. Energy-crop heat production offers considerably greater GHG emission reduction potential compared with agricultural destocking alone, and appears to represent an efficient land-use option for this purpose.     

Feasibility analysis of GHG reduction target: Lessons from Taiwan's energy policy

It is the opinion of this study that more than 10 years of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations have been wasted on determining the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. This study discussed two approaches of GHG reduction targets: top-down approach and bottom-up. This study criticized the top-down approach for reduction target determination has created a new problem for emission reduction efforts. Using Taiwan as a case study, this study adopted the GACMO model to decompose the energy policy and analyzed the cost effectiveness of various reduction strategies. Reviewing the emission reduction measures based on the bottom-up approach is the proper way to address GHG emission reductions. Thus, the countries should refocus on implementation of reduction strategies in the spirit of the UNFCCC. Finally, this study believes that if the reduction cost curves of each nation can be made, the Bali roadmap reached through the 2007 UNFCCC COP13/MOP3 in Bali, Indonesia, can be more defined and practical.     

A comparative study on the energy policies in Japan and Malaysia in fulfilling their nations’ obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol

Global warming and the associated changes in the world climate pattern have been accepted world wide as the gravest threat to humanity in the 20th century. To mitigate the impacts of global warming, the Kyoto Protocol was established in 1997 with the objective of reducing global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, in particular carbon dioxide (CO₂), by 5.2% below 1990 levels. Developed nations that ratified the Protocol are committed to GHG reduction targets while developing nations are encouraged to reduce GHG emissions on a voluntary basis. Since most of the GHGs emissions come from the energy sector, energy policy plays an important role in fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This year marks the beginning of the commitment period for the 2012 Kyoto Protocol. In this case, it would be worthwhile to compare the energy policies in Malaysia and Japan as these nations move towards fulfilling their obligations towards the Kyoto Protocol; bearing in mind that both countries ratified the Protocol, but that Japan commits a reduction target of 6% while Malaysia bears no obligation. Based on the comparison, recommendations were made on how a developing nation like Malaysia could adopt the policies implemented in Japan to suit local conditions and contribute significantly to GHG reduction.     

An innovative indicator of carbon dioxide emissions for developing countries: A study of Taiwan

Ever since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, the issues of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have drawn more and more attention globally. However, the major concern of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce the overall GHG emissions might be inaccessible for most developing countries, which rely heavily on the energy-intensive industries for exports and economic growth. In this study, an innovative indicator of net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which excludes the emissions corresponding to the exports, is proposed to explicitly reveal domestic situations of developing countries. By introducing the indicator of net CO₂ emissions to top five energy-intensive industries in Taiwan, the analysis indicates that the increase in CO₂ emissions from 1999 to 2004 is mostly contributed by the expanded exports rather than the domestic demand. The distinct growth patterns of the apparent and net CO₂ emissions also imply the transformation of the industrial sector. It is expected that, for developing countries, the concept of net emissions may not only serve as a proper interim target during the process of international negotiations over GHG reductions but also highlights the prominence of addressing the emissions from the industrial sector as the top priority.     

Reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn ethanol by integrating biomass to produce heat and power at ethanol plants

A life-cycle assessment (LCA) of corn ethanol was conducted to determine the reduction in the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for corn ethanol compared to gasoline by integrating biomass fuels to replace fossil fuels (natural gas and grid electricity) in a U.S. Midwest dry-grind corn ethanol plant producing 0.19 hm³ y⁻¹ of denatured ethanol. The biomass fuels studied are corn stover and ethanol co-products [dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS), and syrup (solubles portion of DDGS)]. The biomass conversion technologies/systems considered are process heat (PH) only systems, combined heat and power (CHP) systems, and biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) systems. The life-cycle GHG emission reduction for corn ethanol compared to gasoline is 38.9% for PH with natural gas, 57.7% for PH with corn stover, 79.1% for CHP with corn stover, 78.2% for IGCC with natural gas, 119.0% for BIGCC with corn stover, and 111.4% for BIGCC with syrup and stover. These GHG emission estimates do not include indirect land use change effects. GHG emission reductions for CHP, IGCC, and BIGCC include power sent to the grid which replaces electricity from coal. BIGCC results in greater reductions in GHG emissions than IGCC with natural gas because biomass is substituted for fossil fuels. In addition, underground sequestration of CO₂ gas from the ethanol plant’s fermentation tank could further reduce the life-cycle GHG emission for corn ethanol by 32% compared to gasoline.     

发展中国家政府对国内CDM项目管理的经济手段

CDM是基于发达国家温室气体减排义务之上的发达国家和发展中国家合作机制。为了保障CDM项目能够产生实在的、可测量的、长期的效益及额外于任何其他项目的温室气体减排量,已经通过政治谈判建立了从CDM项目设计、国家批准、审查登记、项目监测、核实/认证、到签发核准的减排量(CERs)的管理框架和规则。然而,在如何使CDM项目的发达国家和发展中国家参与方能够公平地分享CDM项目所产生的经济利益方面,目前仍然存在很多问题有待于解决。发达国家强调CDM项目合作应该完全基于市场机制。但由于CDM的项目运作过程和项目所产生的交易品(CERs)与现有的国际贸易规则有很大的不同,完全基于市场机制和成本竞争将不利于保障发展中国家参与方的利益,因此发展中国家的政府有必要采用经济手段对本国境内实施的CDM项目进行一定的控制和干预。     

The impact of household behavioral changes on GHG emission reduction in Lithuania

It is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap GHG emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20% of total energy consumption in developed countries. In addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in GHG emission reduction.The aim of the paper is to assess GHG emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption. The review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on GHG emission reduction was performed; the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in Lithuania for two scenarios – baseline and GHG emission reduction scenario including energy saving. GHG emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients. Evaluated GHG emission reduction potential in households was compared with GHG emission reduction potentials in other sectors of Lithuania. Based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed.     

Large-scale long-distance land-based hydrogen transportation systems: A comparative techno-economic and greenhouse gas emission assessment

Interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier is growing as countries look to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in hard-to-abate sectors. Previous works have focused on hydrogen production, well-to-wheel analysis of fuel cell vehicles, and vehicle refuelling costs and emissions. These studies use high-level estimates for the hydrogen transportation systems that lack sufficient granularity for techno-economic and GHG emissions analysis. In this work, we assess and compare the unit costs and emission footprints (direct and indirect) of 32 systems for hydrogen transportation. Process-based models were used to examine the transportation of pure hydrogen (hydrogen pipeline and truck transport of gaseous and liquified hydrogen), hydrogen-natural gas blends (pipeline), ammonia (pipeline), and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (pipeline and rail). We used sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to determine the parameters impacting the cost and emission estimates. At 1000 km, the pure hydrogen pipelines have a levelized cost of $0.66/kg H₂ and a GHG footprint of 595 gCO₂eq/kg H₂. At 1000 km, ammonia, liquid organic hydrogen carrier, and truck transport scenarios are more than twice as expensive as pure hydrogen pipeline and hythane, and more than 1.5 times as expensive at 3000 km. The GHG emission footprints of pure hydrogen pipeline transport and ammonia transport are comparable, whereas all other transport systems are more than twice as high. These results may be informative for government agencies developing policies around clean hydrogen internationally.     

Popularizing household-scale biogas digesters for rural sustainable energy development and greenhouse gas mitigation

Biogas utilization has undergone great development in rural China since the government systematically popularized household-scale biogas digesters for meeting the rural energy needs in the 1970s. In order to comprehensively estimate the significance of biogas utilization on rural energy development and greenhouse gas emission reduction, all types of energy sources, including straw, fuelwood, coal, refined oil, electricity, LPG, natural gas, and coal gas, which were substituted by biogas, were analyzed based on the amount of consumption for the years from 1991 to 2005. It was found that biogas provided 832749.13 TJ of energy for millions of households. By the employment of biogas digesters, reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) was estimated to be 73157.59 Gg CO₂ equivalents (CO₂-eq), and the emission by the biogas combustion was only 36372.75 Gg CO₂-eq of GHG. Energy substitution and manure management, working in combination, had reduced the GHG emission efficiently. The majority of the emission reduction was achieved by energy substitution that reduced 84243.94 Gg CO₂, 3560.01 Gg CO₂-eq of CH₄ and 260.08 Gg CO₂-eq of N₂O emission. It was also predicted that the total production of biogas would reach to 15.6 billion m³ in the year 2010 and 38.5 billion m³ in the year 2020, respectively. As a result, the GHG emission reductions are expected to reach 28991.04 and 46794.90 Gg CO₂-eq, respectively.     

A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change.     

Change in carbon footprint of canola production in the Canadian Prairies from 1986 to 2006

Accounting for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the production stage of a bioenergy crop is essential for evaluating its eco-efficiency. The objective of this study was to calculate the change in GHG emissions for canola (Brassica napus L.) production on the Canadian Prairies from 1986 to 2006. Net GHG emissions in the sub-humid and semi-arid climatic zones were estimated for fallow-seeded and stubble-seeded canola in intensive-, reduced- and no-tillage systems, with consideration given to emissions associated with synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer input, mineralized N from crop residues, N leaching and volatilization, farm operations, the manufacturing and transportation of fertilizer, agrochemicals and farm machinery, and emission and removal of CO₂ associated with changes in land use (LUC) and land management (LMC). The GHG emissions on an area basis were higher in stubble-seeded canola than in fallow-seeded canola but, the opposite was true on a grain dry matter (DM) basis. Nitrous oxide emissions associated with canola production, CO₂ emissions associated with farm energy use and the manufacturing of synthetic N fertilizer and its transportation contributed 49% of the GHG emissions in 1986 which increased to 66% in 2006. Average CO₂ emissions due to LUC decreased from 27% of total GHG emissions in 1986 to 8% in 2006 and soil C sequestration due to LMC increased from 8% to 37%, respectively. These changes caused a reduction in net GHG emission intensities of 40% on an area basis and of 65% on a grain DM basis. Despite the reduction in GHG emission intensities, GHG emissions associated with canola in the Prairies increased from 3.4 Tg CO₂ equiv in 1986 to 3.8 Tg CO₂ equiv in 2006 because of the more than doubling of canola production.     

Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large-scale biomass use on a country level

This study evaluates the possible influences of a large-scale introduction of biomass material and energy systems and their market volumes on land, material and energy market prices and their feedback to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation costs. GHG emission mitigation supply curves for large-scale biomass use were compiled using a methodology that combines a bottom-up analysis of biomass applications, biomass cost supply curves and market prices of land, biomaterials and bioenergy carriers. These market prices depend on the scale of biomass use and the market volume of materials and energy carriers and were estimated using own-price elasticities of demand. The methodology was demonstrated for a case study of Poland in the year 2015 applying different scenarios on economic development and trade in Europe. For the key technologies considered, i.e. medium density fibreboard, poly lactic acid, electricity and methanol production, GHG emission mitigation costs increase strongly with the scale of biomass production. Large-scale introduction of biomass use decreases the GHG emission reduction potential at costs below 50 €/Mg CO_2eq with about 13–70% depending on the scenario. Biomaterial production accounts for only a small part of this GHG emission reduction potential due to relatively small material markets and the subsequent strong decrease of biomaterial market prices at large scale of production. GHG emission mitigation costs depend strongly on biomass supply curves, own-price elasticity of land and market volumes of bioenergy carriers. The analysis shows that these influences should be taken into account for developing biomass implementations strategies.     

Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis.     

Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe

 Due to the growing concern for global warming, the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005–2007), part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points, the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario, electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario.     

Greenhouse gas balances and mitigation costs of 70 modern Germany-focused and 4 traditional biomass pathways including land-use change effects

With Germany as the point of energy end-use, 70 current and future modern pathways plus 4 traditional biomass pathways for heat, power and transport have been compiled and examined in one single greenhouse gas (GHG) balancing assessment. This is needed to broaden the narrow focus on biofuels for transport and identify the role of bioenergy in GHG mitigation. Sensitivity analysis for land-use changes and fossil reference systems are included. Co-firing of woody biomass and fermentation of waste biomass are the most cost-efficient and effective biomass applications for GHG emission reduction in modern pathways. Replacing traditional biomass with modern biomass applications offers an underestimated economic potential of GHG emission reduction. The range of maximum CO₂ equivalent GHG reduction potential of bioenergy is identified in a range of 2.5-16 Gt a⁻¹ in 2050 (5-33% of today’s global GHG emissions), and has an economic bioenergy potential of 150 EJ a⁻¹.     

Impacts and implications of implementing voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in major countries and Korea

This study analyses the pledges submitted by Korea and other major parties to the UNFCCC secretariat as part of the Copenhagen Accord, using the global CGE model. The analysis shows that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the developed countries decrease by up to 14.0% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level. These results show the need to raise the targets amongst developed countries in order to reach to the reduction levels (25–40%) recommended by the IPCC to meet 450 ppm CO₂ eq. On the other hand, the full implementation of those pledges of Annex I and non-Annex I countries was found to contribute to the decrease of the global GHG emissions by about 15.9% compared to Business as Usual (BaU). Such results imply the need for developed countries to step up their reduction targets, as well as for developing ones to participate comprehensively and to reduce GHG emissions at a considerable level in order to enhance the environmental effectiveness of the Post-Kyoto framework hereafter. Meanwhile, it is analyzed that the implementation of voluntary target among major countries would reduce the global real GDP by 1.2%, and in the case of Korea, the real GDP was projected to diminish by 1.5%.     

How to ensure greenhouse gas emission reductions by increasing the use of biofuels? - Suitability of the European Union sustainability criteria

Biofuels are promoted in many parts of the world. However, concern of environmental and social problems have grown due to increased production of biofuels. Therefore, many initiatives for sustainability criteria have been announced. As a part of the European Union (EU) renewable energy promotion directive (RED), the EU has introduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-saving requirements for biofuels along with the first-ever mandate methodology to calculate the GHG emission reduction. As explored in this paper, the RED methodology, based on life-cycle assessment (LCA) approach, excludes many critical issues. These include indirect impacts due to competition for land, biomass and other auxiliary inputs. Also, timing issues, allocation problems, and uncertainty of individual parameters are not yet considered adequately. Moreover, the default values provided in the RED for the GHG balances of biofuels may significantly underestimate their actual impacts. We conclude that the RED methodology cannot ensure the intended GHG emission reductions of biofuels. Instead, a more comprehensive approach is required along with additional data and indicators. Even if it may be very difficult to verify the GHG emission reductions of biofuels in practice, it is necessary to consider the uncertainties more closely, in order to mitigate climate change effectively.