我国近期炼油行业相关政策综述

2011年我国炼油工业保持了快速的增长,原油一次加工能力为5.4×108t/a,同比增加5.2％,位居世界第二.2012年世界主要权威机构预测全球经济复苏步伐缓慢,国际原油价格走势或将继续高企;国内外权威机构预测2012年中国经济增速回落,国内经济增速放缓.为应对未来经济形势预期和保证产业健康持续发展,我国近期发布一系列炼油行业相关的国家政策和行业政策;①从产业发展的宏观层面上,国家出台的石油和化工行业“十二五”发展规划、产业结构调整指导目录、油气资源税计征办法等政策,将对我国“十二五”期间炼油行业发展起到积极的促进作用:②在成品油流通和经营方面,国家出台的“十二五”期间石油流通指导意见、非国营贸易企业进口允许量总量、企业成品油经营资质、成品油(燃料油)非国营贸易企业进口允许量以及“十二五”期间石油投资与经营主体多元化等政策,将进一步规范行业市场化进程;③在节能减排和环保方面,国家出台的“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案以及国家第四阶段车用压燃式发动机与汽车污染物排放标准,为指导炼油行业清洁生产和节能减排明确了方向;④国家出台的可再生能源“十二五”规划、对纯生物柴油免征消费税、我国首个生物柴油行业评价技术要求标准、国内首次航空生物燃料试飞成功以及甲醇汽车试点等,将为新能源和替代能源的发展起到推进作用.     

The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.     

Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence

Within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on ‘peak oil’ has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.     

World energy analysis: H2 now or later?

This is a study of world energy resource sustainability within the context of resource peak production dates, advanced energy use technologies in the transportation and electricity generation energy use sectors, and alternative fuel production including hydrogen. The finding causing the most concern is the projection of a peak in global conventional oil production between now and 2023. In addition, the findings indicate that the peak production date for natural gas, coal, and uranium could occur by 2050. The central question is whether oil production from non-conventional oil resources can be increased at a fast enough rate to offset declines in conventional oil production. The development of non-conventional oil production raises concerns about increased energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water issues. Due to the emerging fossil fuel resource constraints in coming decades, this study concludes that it is prudent to begin the development of hydrogen production and distribution systems in the near-term. The hydrogen gas is to be initially used by fuel cell vehicles, which will eliminate tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions. With a lowering of H₂ production costs through the amortization of system components, H₂ can be an economic fuel source for electricity generation post-2040.     

Modelling of a new hydro-compressed air-storage system

The interest in energy storage systems is increasing, since it provides an excellent solution to store the low-cost excess energy from the energy sources, which are available at peak demand hours. This paper presents a new compressed-air storage system that combines ambient air and hydraulic oil, in order to store energy in compressed-air form and benefit from the advantages of both pneumatic and hydraulic systems. The process consists of charging and discharging cycles, however, this paper investigates the discharging cycle, where a new technique of Small-Scale Compressed Air Energy Storage (SS-CAES) system is realised. The new idea in RC-CAHES is to obtain higher efficiency in energy conversion machines during charging and discharging processes with numerous advantages over conventional types of energy storage systems. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of this technique by proving that it has higher efficiency than a similar Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) systems.     

论石油卢布替代石油美元与中国经济安全的关系

长期以来,美元在国际石油贸易中作为唯一的计价与结算货币,使美国获得了巨大的收益,但石油产地和美元结算在地域上的分离却成为国际油价不稳定的重要因素。美元相对于石油发生严重贬值是现在石油美元的现状,并且在未来相当长时间内会保持这一趋势。石油是我国需求十分紧迫的战略资源,美元又是我国主要的外汇储备,因此石油美元持续疲软将会对我国经济安全造成很大冲击,一方面使得我国外汇支出额大增,一方面又抑制我国的商品出口。同时石油美元增长背后的高油价因素也导致我国工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)上涨,进而向下游消费品渗透,引起居民消费品价格指数(CPI)上涨。俄罗斯与中国在石油贸易上存在很大互补性,两国间的石油贸易顺理成章,且会不断加强。在两国已经实现双方直接汇兑的情况下,采用石油卢布替代石油美元是可行也是必要的,这必然对两国有利,更会对我国经济安全带来益处——可有效避免美元的汇率风险给我国带来的损失;可扩大我国对俄罗斯石油进口贸易,增加我国石油产业链安全系数;可加强中国与俄罗斯的经济依存度,有利于抵抗美国的经济压力。     

Is peakoilism coming?

Peak oil research and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) have contributed a great deal to improve people's recognition of peak oil. Although peak oil is becoming a part of public recognition, it is still hard to say whether peak oil discussion will develop into a theory such as “peakoilism”. On one hand, there are still some difficult problems in peak oil research. On the other hand, the peakoilers have the potential for scientific research and have their allies: the climate change researchers and the new energy advocates. Oil is a limited, non-renewable resource, and an oil peak is inevitable. Peak oil theory is a kind of development theory rather than a crisis theory, which promotes reasonable utilization of the limited oil resources, promotes conservation, and encourages the development of renewable energy.     

A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006–2018 and 2006–2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

加拿大的能源政策

一 加拿大能源极为丰富,主要包括石油、天然气、水利、铀和生物能源.能源生产在国民经济中的重要位置仅次于制造业,位居第二,在西部的艾伯塔省(Alberta)雄居榜首.     

The expected dates of resource-limited maxima in the global production of oil and gas

Combining geological knowledge with proven plus probable (“2P”) oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited maxima of conventional oil production. The data show that the maximum of global conventional oil production is imminent. Many analysts who rely on only proven (“1P”) oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proven oil reserves data contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously underreported, overreported, and not reported. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of nonconventional oil. However, many current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the nonconventional oils will not come onstream fast enough to offset the decline in conventional oil production.     

Estonian electricity supply scenarios for 2020 and their environmental performance

Estonia is the only country in Europe with significant environmentally intensive oil shale-based energy production. However, the legal obligations of the EU will make substantial changes over the coming years to current electricity production technology. Increasing the use of alternative energy carriers for responding to future requirements has also been in focus. In this study, three different future electricity supply scenarios for Estonia in 2020 are considered and compared to the situation in 2002. They are based on domestic oil shale, imported natural gas, and imported nuclear power. According to the aims of the national energy policy, renewable energy sources were raised to 10% in all scenarios. Using the LCA methodology, the least damaging impact on the environment occurs in the ‘nuclear scenario’, with nuclear energy as the main energy source. The best scenario, however, depends on the weight or acceptance of accidental releases or other impacts not defined in this context. The ‘Oil shale scenario’ would be a slightly more damaging alternative than the ‘Natural gas scenario’ even if new technical solutions will remarkably improve the environmental performance of oil shale electricity production. Land use and waste disposal are crucial issues, particularly for oil shale and nuclear electricity production. However, the depletion of oil shale is not as critical an issue as the depletion of natural gas and uranium. According to the significance analysis of impact categories, climate change is the most significant impact on the environment in the scenarios. Future decisions on the development of the Estonian energy sector are most likely to be based on technological, economical and political aspects. Political aspects are likely to be the most significant. However, this type of study can give additional value to the discussion due to the increasing role of sustainability in energy issues.     

Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable (‘2P’) oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close.

Many analysts who rely only on proved (‘1P’) oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to ‘turn resources into reserves’. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA.

In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return.     

Diffusion of innovation model of consumer behaviour - Ideas to accelerate adoption of renewable energy sources by consumer communities in India

Renewable Energy (RE) sources form a minuscule portion of India’s overall Energy consumption today. India continues to rely on fast depleting fossil fuel and expensive Oil imports to satisfy the energy demands of the economy. But this is hardly sustainable and India has to quickly get RE sources to play a major role in servicing the energy needs of its population. Despite the best efforts the adoption of RE sources by consumer communities in India is patchy. This article will focus on what needs to be done to create a pull from the market for RE sources, by looking at Consumer Behaviour literature available in the area of Diffusion of Innovation[1]. Demand for RE sources from consumer communities must reach a tipping point[4] quickly; for the sector to take-off on its own and become a self-sustaining business.     

Biodiesel production from acid oils and ethanol using a solid basic resin as catalyst

In the search of an alternative fuel to substitute diesel fuel, biodiesel appears as one of the most promising sources of energy for diesel engines because of its environmental advantages and also due to the evolution of the petroleum market.Refined oil is the conventional raw material for the production of this biofuel; however, its major disadvantage is the high cost of its production. Therefore, frying oils, waste oils, crude oils and/or acid oils are being tested as alternative raw materials; nevertheless, there will be some problems if a homogeneous basic catalyst (NaOH) is employed due to the high amount of free fatty acid present in the raw oil.In this work, the transesterification reaction of acid oil using solid resin, Dowex monosphere 550 A, was studied as an alternative process. Ethanol was employed to have a natural and sustainable final product. The reaction temperature's effects, the initial amount of free fatty acid, the molar ratio of alcohol/oil and the type of catalyst (homogeneous or heterogeneous) over the main reaction are analyzed and their effects compared.The results obtained show that the solid resin is an alternative catalyst to be used to produce fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs) by a transesterification reaction with a final conversion over 90%. On the other hand, the time required to achieve this conversion is bigger than the one required using conventional technology which employs a homogeneous basic catalyst. This reaction time needs to be optimized.     

我国经济和社会发展中必须重视石油峰值问题

石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。世界石油产量到达峰值并不意味着全世界已将石油消耗怠尽,也不意味着人类不可能在地球上再发现新的油田,只是新发现的油田的石油产量越来越无法弥补已开发油田产量的下降,世界石油供应量不可能再增加,不能满足人类日益增长的需求。许多研究表明世界石油产量正在进入峰值平台期,随时都可能出现资源长期短缺的石油危机。我国的石油消费一直以较快的速度增长,石油也许很快成为我国经济发展的瓶颈。本文提出了石油峰值——我国经济和社会发展中必须重视的一个重大问题,希望大家尤其是主管部门和高层决策者充分认识石油峰值的内涵和挑战,高度重视我国面临的潜在的石油危机,认真落实科学发展观、未雨绸缪,提早采取应对策略以实现我国经济社会的可持续发展。     

The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects

This paper, analyses the factors impacting the price of crude oil in order to examine the likely evolution of the oil market and attempts to answer the question, whether cheap oil is already a thing of the past. Based on data made publicly available mostly by the major oil companies, it examines the effects of demand and supply, the evolution of world oil reserves, the trends in new discoveries of new oilfields, the evolution of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the depletion of oil resources. The analysis concludes that the world peak in conventional oil production—the point beyond which oil production will irreversibly start declining—is approaching and will be reached, even according to the most optimistic scenarios, before 2040 and quite possibly much sooner. If the appropriate solutions for substituting crude oil and for conserving the use of energy are not implemented in time, then the current upward trend in oil prices is bound to continue.     

What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies—A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak

American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. In his 1956 article “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels”, in which he predicted the production peak for the USA, Hubbert used 80 pages of differential equations to draw his conclusions. That earned him some criticism, because only those with profound mathematical knowledge could understand. Hubbert presented in his 1982 article, “Techniques of Prediction as Applied to the Production of Oil and Gas” an alternative method that was much more accessible. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology.     

Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply

Due to the critical importance of oil to modern economic activity, and oil’s non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future oil production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates and demand growth, and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop several alternate future scenarios for conventional oil supply, given the current range of the estimates of resource availability and of future demand, and assuming that production will continue to increase unconstrained by political or economic factors such as deliberate withholdings or prolonged global recession. Our results predict that global production of conventional oil will almost certainly begin an irreversible decline somewhere between 2004 and 2037, at 22 to 42 billion barrels per year, depending upon how much oil is available from the earth’s crust and the growth rate in its use. In addition, we found that the increasing domestic use of conventional oil in oil-producing countries is very likely to eliminate over time the ability of these countries to export oil to net-consumer countries, so that the number of net-exporting countries will be reduced from 35 today to between 12 and 28 by 2030, and fewer subsequently. The geopolitical and economic implications of these trends are likely to be pronounced if reliance on cheap oil is not reduced prior to the peak.