The initial impact of EU ETS verification events on stock prices

This paper studies the impact of verified emissions publications in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on the market value of participating companies. Using event study methodology on a unique sample of 368 listed companies, we show that verified emissions only resulted in statistically significant market responses when the carbon price was high and allowance scarcity was anticipated. The cross-section analysis of abnormal returns surrounding the publication of verified emissions shows that share prices decrease when actual emissions relative to allocated emissions increase. This negative relationship between allocation shortfalls and firm value is only significant for firms that are either carbon-intensive, compared to sector peers, or are less likely to pass through carbon-related costs in their product prices. The results suggest that although the EU ETS has been deemed unsuccessful so far due to over-allocation and low carbon price, shareholders initially perceived allowance holdings as value relevant. Our results highlight that a significant carbon market price and addressing pass-through costing are essential for successful future reforms of the EU ETS and other analogous carbon cap-and-trade systems implemented or planned worldwide.     

Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals

We investigate the price determination of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) of the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). We postulate an uncertain permit price and risk-averse firms which have the possibility to hedge in the forward market. The firms produce final goods, abate their emissions and trade permits in the permit market. The dependence of the equilibrium permit price on exogenous variables is studied in a permit market model. We test our theoretical findings with empirical data from 2005 to 2010 in the EU ETS market. We use daily forward prices of EUA as our dependent variable. We use several econometric models with multiple stationary time series to discover that there is a strong relationship between the fundamentals, such as German electricity prices and gas and coal prices, with the price of EUA. We find that the EUA forward price depends on fundamentals, especially on the price of electricity as well as on the gas–coal difference, in a statistically significant way.     

Emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector—a case study in Finland

Organizations, which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences/capacity within the European Community, are exposed to the impacts of the European Union Emission allowance Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In this paper, the consequences of the EU ETS on investment decisions are explored in a country-specific setting in Finland. First, we review the general mechanisms through which the EU ETS influences size, timing and cashflows of an investment. Next, we discuss the projected changes in Finnish power producers’ investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the EU ETS on a case investment decision, a hypothetical condensing power plant (250 MW_e). The standard discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options: the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale. In a quantitative investment appraisal, the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices, but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices. The case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel-fired power plants.     

Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms

This study exploits the incomplete participation requirements of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to investigate the policy's causal effect on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of German multinational firms. Using a combination of difference-in-differences with bias-corrected matching, our baseline specification indicates that the sample average treatment effect is very small and levels out at −0.2%, but its standard error is large (0.16). Looking at a sub-sample of firms which can be considered as geographically more mobile because they are supposedly less capital-intensive, we find that a small number of EU ETS regulated firms have increased their FDI outside the EU by 52% ± 47% compared to a counterfactual scenario. Paradoxically, relocating firms neither operate in the targeted energy-intensive sectors, nor are they emission-intensive. The small emissions share of these footloose firms indeed indicates a limited potential for policy-induced leakage of emissions. On the extensive margin, we find that all EU ETS firms on average have increased the number of their affiliates outside the EU by 28% ± 24% relative to control firms. This causal change in network structures of multinational firms outside the EU is suggestive of endeavors undertaken by regulated firms to facilitate relocations in the future.     

Korea׳s emission trading scheme and policy design issues to achieve market-efficiency and abatement targets

In 2008, the government of Republic of Korea (Korea) announced the national abatement target aiming at 30% reductions from the Business-as-Usual projections by 2020. Accordingly, the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) will be implemented from 2015 onwards. As ETS performance substantially depends on the structural design, it is critically important to examine the details of Korean ETS for the achievement of cost effectiveness and concurrent development of an active emission trading market. This paper addresses several policy design issues for this purpose. After providing an overview on the current framework of Korean ETS, we propose ways to achieve flexibility, consistency and market efficiency of the program in consideration of the preexisting policies. Issues in policy design are discussed by focusing on allowance allocation, market stabilization measures and price mechanism in the emission and energy markets in Korea. This paper will serve as a practical guideline for establishing sustainable and market-efficient Korean ETS that can be compatible with the international standards as in the EU ETS.     

Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX,Nord Pool and Powernext

The links between emission and energy markets are of great interest to practitioners, academics and policy makers. In this paper, it is conjectured that a positive relationship exists between emission allowance spot returns and electricity risk premia within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We discuss how this can be justified on the basis of the substantial uncertainties in the carbon markets. We also argue that this link could be due to trading strategies followed by electricity producers who attempt to exploit their initial allocation of free allowances. Analysis of data from three major markets, the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext, offers empirical support to our conjecture. These findings have significant policy implications since they imply that efforts should be made in order to reduce the uncertainty in the carbon markets by clearly defining the EU ETS regulative framework and design over the next years. Moreover, our results suggest that the allocation of free allowances and their unrestricted trading enable electricity producers to accomplish windfall profits in the derivatives market at the expense of other market participants.     

Sectoral and regional impacts of the European carbon market in Portugal

Across Europe, CO₂ emission allowances represent one of the main policy instruments to comply with the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper we use microdata to address two issues regarding the impact of the European Carbon Market (EU ETS). First, we analyze the sectoral effects of the EU ETS in Portugal. The goal is to study the distributive consequences of imbalances, with the novelty of taking into account firm financial data to put values into context. We show that a large majority of installations in most sectors had surpluses and the opportunity to raise remarkable revenues in some cases. We also look at the regional impact, since the pre-existing specialization of different regions in the production of different goods and services might lead to an uneven economic impact of the allowance market. In particular, Portuguese data indicate a distribution of revenue from low income to high income regions, or rather, between installations located in those regions. We focus on the first phase of the EU ETS, using data for each one of the 244 Portuguese installations in the market as well as financial data for 80% of these installations, although we also present data for 2008 and 2009.     

Economic impact assessment of Turkey's post-Kyoto vision on emission trading

For the post-Kyoto period, Turkey strongly emphasizes the establishment of national emission trading system by 2015 and its integration with the EU ETS along its accession process to the EU. In this paper, we study the mechanisms of adjustment and economic welfare consequences of various ETS regimes that Turkey considers to apply by 2020, i.e. regional ETS and international trading within the EU ETS. We conduct our analysis under the current EU 20–20–20 emission target, 20%, and also under its revised version, 30%. We find that Turkey has economic gains from linking with the EU ETS under the 20% cap, in comparison to the domestic ETSs. Despite the EU's welfare loss under linkage in comparison to the case where Turkey has domestic abatement efforts, it still prefers linking as it increases economic well being compared to the case where Turkey does not abate. Under 30% cutback, Turkey has critical output loss under linkage due to high abatement burden on the EU, while the EU is better off as it passes some of its abatement burden to Turkey. Therefore, emission quotas and their allocation across the ETS and non ETS sectors become highly critical in distributing the overall economic gains from bilateral trading.     

The reformed EU ETS - Intertemporal emission trading with restricted banking

With the increase of the linear reduction factor, the implementation of the market stability reserve and the introduction of the cancellation mechanism, the EU ETS changed fundamentally. We develop a discrete time model of the intertemporal allowance market that accurately depicts these reforms assuming that prices develop with the Hotelling rule as long as the aggregated bank is non-empty. A sensitivity analysis ensures the robustness of the model results regarding its input parameters. The accurate modelling of the EU ETS allows for a decomposition of the effects of the individual amendments and the evaluation of their cost effectiveness. The market stability reserve shifts emissions to the future but is allowance preserving. A one-time cancellation reduces the overall emission cap, increasing allowance prices in the long run, but does not significantly impact the emission and price path in the short run. The increased linear reduction factor leads with 9 billion cancelled allowances to a stronger reduction than the cancellation mechanism and is therefore the main price driver of the reform.     

Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has imposed a price on the allowances for CO₂ emissions of electricity companies. Integrating this allowance price into the price of electricity earns a rent for companies who have received these allowances for free. During Phase I, 2005–2007, rents corresponding to the aggregate value of allocated allowances amounted to roughly € 13 billion per year. However, due to the specific price-setting mechanism in electricity markets true rents were considerably higher. This is due to the fact that companies also that have not received any allowances gain additional infra-marginal rents to the extent that their variable costs are below the new market price after inclusion of the allowance price. Producers with low carbon emissions and low marginal costs thus also benefit substantially from carbon pricing. This paper develops a methodology to determine the specific interaction of the imposition of such a CO₂ constraint and the price-setting mechanism in the electricity sector under the assumption of marginal cost pricing in a liberalized European electricity market. The article thus provides an empirical estimate of the true total rents of power producers during Phase I of the EU-ETS (2005–2007). The EU ETS generated in Phase I additional rents in excess of € 19 billion per year for electricity producers. These transfers are distributed very unevenly between different electricity producers. In a second step, the paper assesses the impact of switching from free allocation to an auctioning of allowances in 2013. We show that such a switch to auctioning will continue to create additional infra-marginal rents for certain producers and will leave the electricity sector as a whole better off than before the introduction of the EU ETS.     

Germany's solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the horizon

This article demonstrates that the large feed-in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in Germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of German hard coal production, a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention. Yet, as a consequence of the coexistence of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ETS alone. Similarly disappointing is the net employment balance, which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic (PV) support. Along the lines of the international energy agency [IEA, 2007. Energy policies of IEA countries: Germany, 2007 review. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris, p. 77], we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed-in tariffs granted for solar-based electricity. Ultimately, producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options.     

Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade

Current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement (see companion article by Creutzig et al., in press). Market-based instruments such as cap-and-trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise. Even in presence of strong existing non-market policies, cap-and-trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options. This paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the European road transport sector into the EU ETS. Suitable points of regulation are up- and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness (cover all emissions and avoid double-counting), efficiency (incentivize all abatement options) and low transaction costs. Based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current EU climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom, road transport inclusion would not change the EU ETS allowance price. Hence, industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the EU ETS may be less important than previously estimated.     

Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US

The US carbon allowance market has different characteristic and price determination process from the EU ETS market, since emitting installations voluntarily participate in emission trading scheme. This paper examines factors affecting the US carbon allowance market. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used to examine the short- and long-run relationships between the US carbon allowance market and its determinant factors. In the long-run, the price of coal is a main factor in the determination of carbon allowance trading. In the short-run, on the other hand, the changes in crude oil and natural gas prices as well as coal price have significant effects on carbon allowance market.     

The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies – Findings for Germany

This paper provides an overview of early changes in the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies which have been triggered by the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS). Based on a broad definition of the sector, our research analyses the impact of the EU ETS on the four building blocks ‘knowledge and technologies’, ‘actors and networks’, ‘institutions’, and ‘demand’ by combining two streams of literature, namely systems of innovation and environmental economics. Our analysis for Germany is based on 42 exploratory interviews with experts in the field of the EU ETS, the power sector, and technological innovation. We find that the EU ETS mainly affects the rate and direction of technological change of power generation technologies within the large-scale, coal-based power generation technological regime, to which carbon capture technologies are added as a new technological trajectory. While this impact can be interpreted as the defensive behaviour of incumbents, the observed changes should not be underestimated. We argue that the EU ETS’ impact on corporate CO₂ culture and routines may prepare the ground for the transition to a low-carbon sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies.     

Capital market response to emission rights returns: Evidence from the European power sector

Prior studies on the distributional effects of the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) have so far only relied on supply and demand data. Empirical evidence from capital markets has been missing. We address this gap and measure the ETS's economic consequences, using the expectations of investors towards the regulatory impact on firm value. Employing a multifactor model, we show that returns on common stock of the largest affected industry, power generation, are positively correlated with rising prices for emission rights. This implies that the market predicts that firms are not only able to pass on their share of the regulatory burden to customers but even achieve windfall profits by overcompensating for the costs.     

Why should support schemes for renewable electricity complement the EU emissions trading scheme?

In virtually all EU Member States, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is complemented by support schemes for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E). This policy mix has been subject to strong criticism. It is mainly argued that RES-E schemes contribute nothing to emissions reduction and undermine the cost-effectiveness of the EU ETS. Consequently, many scholars suggest the abolition of RES-E schemes. However, this conclusion rests on quite narrow and unrealistic assumptions about the design and performance of markets and policies. This article provides a systematic and comprehensive review and discussion of possible rationales for combining the EU ETS with RES-E support schemes. The first and most important reason may be restrictions to technology development and adoption. These may be attributed to the failure of markets as well as policies, and more generally to the path dependency in socio-technical systems. Under these conditions, RES-E schemes are required to reach sufficient levels of technology development. In addition, it is highlighted that in contrast to the EU ETS RES-E support schemes may provide benefits beyond mitigating climate change.     

The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector

In order to comply with their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, France and Germany participate in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) which predominantly concerns the electricity-generation sectors. In this paper we ask whether the EU ETS provides the appropriate economic incentives to produce an efficient system in line with the Kyoto commitments. If so, electricity producers in the countries concerned should include the price of carbon in their cost functions. After identifying different sub-periods of the EU ETS during its pilot phase (2005–2007), we model the prices of various electricity contracts in France and Germany and look at the volatility of electricity prices around their fundamentals while evaluating the correlation between electricity prices in the two countries. We find that electricity producers in both countries were constrained to include the carbon price in their cost functions during the first two years of the EU ETS. Over this period, German electricity producers were more constrained than their French counterparts, and the inclusion of the carbon price in the electricity-generation cost function was much more stable in Germany than in France. We also find evidence of fuel switching in electricity generation in Germany after the collapse of the carbon market. Furthermore, the European market for emission allowances has greatly contributed to the partial alignment of the wholesale price of electricity in France to that in Germany.     

A literature-based multi-criteria evaluation of the EU ETS

This article reviews the existing literature on the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), focusing on empirical ex-post research since the end of the first period (2007). The literature is presented through a multi-criteria evaluation. Concerning environmental effectiveness, despite over-allocation during the first period, abatement is estimated between ?2.5% and ?5%. Trade-driven carbon leakage was not observed, even if long-term economic models predict divergent leakage estimates for certain at-risk sectors. The abatement target was likely to be below an economically efficient level, but was reached in a fairly cost-effective way, even if free allocation gave rise to several distortional effects. Equity concerns were manifold and constitute a major drawback to the policy. Finally, institutional feasibility can be considered positive in that the EU ETS passed the European legislative process, unlike the previously proposed EU-wide carbon tax.     

Energy efficiency in Swedish industry: A firm-level data envelopment analysis

This paper assesses energy efficiency in Swedish industry. Using unique firm-level panel data covering the years 2001–2008, the efficiency estimates are obtained for firms in 14 industrial sectors by using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The analysis accounts for multi-output technologies where undesirable outputs are produced alongside with the desirable output. The results show that there was potential to improve energy efficiency in all the sectors and relatively large energy inefficiencies existed in small energy-use industries in the sample period. Also, we assess how the EU ETS, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) tax and the energy tax affect energy efficiency by conducting a second-stage regression analysis. To obtain consistent estimates for the regression model, we apply a modified, input-oriented version of the double bootstrap procedure of Simar and Wilson (2007). The results of the regression analysis reveal that the EU ETS and the CO₂ tax did not have significant influences on energy efficiency in the sample period. However, the energy tax had a positive relation with the energy efficiency.     

Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS - an analysis for six industry sectors

In the discussion on the potential risk of carbon leakage related to the EU ETS and the effect of safeguard measures, the scope for passing through carbon costs into final product prices is considered a key issue. This study investigates whether and to what extent ETS-related carbon costs have been passed through into product prices by EU industry. Literature on the issue of carbon cost pass-through in industry, other than electric power generation, is relatively sparse and we therefore aim to add to the knowledge gathered in this area so far. We investigate a number of products in six industry sectors in several European countries and regions and provide estimates for carbon cost pass-through for more than 50 product/country pairs. In line with the literature, our econometric results imply significant cost pass-through for a number of products, with results being most conclusive for the cement, iron and steel, and refineries sectors. The extent of the estimated pass-through rates diverges between products and countries/regions. These findings are aimed at informing discussions about carbon leakage protection for industries covered by the EU ETS.