Energy supply planning in Iran by using fuzzy linear programming approach (regarding uncertainties of investment costs)

For many years, energy models have been used in developed or developing countries to satisfy different needs in energy planning. One of major problems against energy planning and consequently energy models is uncertainty, spread in different economic, political and legal dimensions of energy planning. Confronting uncertainty, energy planners have often used two well-known strategies. The first strategy is stochastic programming, in which energy system planners define different scenarios and apply an explicit probability of occurrence to each scenario. The second strategy is Minimax Regret strategy that minimizes regrets of different decisions made in energy planning. Although these strategies have been used extensively, they could not flexibly and effectively deal with the uncertainties caused by fuzziness. “Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP)” is a strategy that can take fuzziness into account. This paper tries to demonstrate the method of application of FLP for optimization of supply energy system in Iran, as a case study. The used FLP model comprises fuzzy coefficients for investment costs. Following the mentioned purpose, it is realized that FLP is an easy and flexible approach that can be a serious competitor for other confronting uncertainties approaches, i.e. stochastic and Minimax Regret strategies.     

A multi-criteria assessment of six energy conversion processes for H2 production

The study of Very Large Complex systems (“VLCS”), of which modern energy conversion systems are an important subset, requires a holistic approach to analyze the system itself and all of its “external” and “internal” interactions. The view taken in this paper is that the VLCS should be considered as an “extended” (in a sense specified below) thermodynamic system. The evaluation of the flows of matter and energy sustaining a VLCS and the knowledge of the transformations therein can be used to describe the rate of exploitation of the available natural resources, to assess the efficiency of the conversion process, and to provide a quantitative estimate of the impact of the system on the environment. This kind of information is an important part of the essential database of any Decision Support System for both the internal and global policy planning and for resources management. Several assessment methods are in use at present, and each one of them provides a different insight in the “performance” of the conversion chain under examination.     

Reevaluating the first and the second dividends of environmental tax reforms

There is increasing global interest in market-based climate change policies following the last elections in the United States. In this context an Exxon Mobil chief executive came out in favour of a carbon tax. This paper is concerned with the welfare analysis of Environmental Tax Reforms (ETR), and takes up the claims for the need of an unambiguous and operative definition of the double dividend both for empirical purposes and political advisement. In this paper, we contest the usual definition of the second dividend and its assimilation to an “efficiency dividend”. We propose alternative definitions by suggesting a different splitting of the total welfare variation between the first and the second dividend in order to isolate the efficiency effects of the ETR. The new definitions become clearly understandable and easy for economic and policy interpretation. Concepts like “weak” and “strong” double dividend turn out to be unnecessary. Finally, we analyze ETR for the US economy to illustrate the advantages of the proposed definitions for policy implementation.     

Reference models and incentive regulation of electricity distribution networks: An evaluation of Sweden's Network Performance Assessment Model (NPAM)

Electricity sector reforms across the world have led to a search for innovative approaches to regulation that promote efficiency in the natural monopoly distribution networks and reduce their service charges. To this aim, a number of countries have adopted incentive regulation models based on efficiency benchmarking. While most regulators have used parametric and non-parametric frontier-based methods of benchmarking some have adopted engineering-designed “reference firm” or “norm” models. This paper examines the incentive properties and related aspects of the reference firm model—NPAM—as used in Sweden and compares this with frontier-based benchmarking methods. We identify a number of important differences between the two approaches that are not readily apparent and discuss their ramifications for the regulatory objectives and process. We conclude that, on balance, the reference models are less appropriate as benchmarks than real firms. Also, the implementation framework based on annual ex-post reviews exacerbates the regulatory problems mainly by increasing uncertainty and reducing the incentive for innovation.     

“Planning”, “siting” and the local acceptance of wind power: Some lessons from the French case

After some years of trifling development under a system of public tenders (1995–2000), French politicians progressively changed the national policy framework for feed-in tariffs (December 2000) and wind power development zones (July 2005). The new policy framework has triggered a beginning of takeoff in wind power capacity. The paper examines French wind power development in the light of two key dimensions and concepts related to wind power policy: “planning” and “siting” (Part 1). We particularly focus on the recent French legislative debate, which led to the adoption of the new policy framework (Part 2). The French case shows that the recourse to planning tools was not tailor-made for siting issues but resulted from a political fight over the decentralization of energy policy. The policy outcome, which we call “flexible decentralized planning”, is both interesting and ambiguous. It is interesting in that it develops interfaces between planning tools and siting institutions. It is ambiguous in that it is potentially very hierarchical: the final decision power is left in State-planners’ hands, making it unpredictable the extent to which room will genuinely be provided for siting processes to take place.     

Pathways for hydrogen infrastructure development in China: Integrated assessment for vehicle fuels and a case study of Beijing

This paper analyzes the technical, economic, and environmental characteristics of different pathways for supplying hydrogen to vehicles in China. A life-cycle accounting of “well-to-tank” hydrogen delivery for 11 different infrastructure pathways reveals different relative economic costs and environmental benefits. Coal-derived methanol as a hydrogen carrier appears particularly promising for China from an economic standpoint. The analysis considers three different infrastructure models: (1) “point-to-point” distribution from well to fueling station; (2) an “idealized city model” with radial and network distribution within a city grid; and (3) a model of Beijing infrastructure growth that evolves over time. The analytical results, the infrastructure models, and the practical case of Beijing provide policy-makers with new tools for hydrogen development strategies.     

Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by “peak oil” adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this “peak fossil-fuel” limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 °C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.     

Optimizing opening dimensions for naturally ventilated buildings

Since naturally ventilated buildings respond to site conditions and microclimate, we cannot establish a “one set of criteria” for every naturally ventilated building. So natural ventilation should be optimized to deal with thermal comfort in passive buildings during summer. A survey of existing tools for natural ventilation simulation shows the dominance of so-called “analysis” tools over “design” tools. In this present work, we will propose a new method to size natural ventilation openings based on inverse calculation, reduction of the number of independent parameters and optimization of occupants thermal comfort.     

The Commons revisited: The tragedy continues

Garrett Hardin's classic paper “Tragedy of the Commons” published in Science in 1968 struck a chord with scientists and non-scientists alike and has continued to provide a key reference point to how a number of “Commons”-related problems can be viewed. Hardin's paper will be in looked at in view of both anthropogenic global warming and peak oil and some of the solutions he posed for the “population problem” applied to the post-peak era. Possible solutions are compared with the Kyoto Protocol for global warming and the Rimini Protocol for peak oil. A carbon-indexed, universal tax on non-renewable energy resources ‘Unitax’ is mooted as a longer-term possibility to overcoming both global warming and the financing of post-peak oil problems. Alas, the process of dealing with global warming and peak oil seems to be falling into the “no technical solution” category that Hardin identified for population.     

Optimal energy efficiency policies and regulatory demand-side management tests: How well do they match?

Under conventional models, subsidizing energy efficiency requires electricity to be priced below marginal cost. Its benefits increase when electricity prices increase to finance the subsidy. With high prices, subsidies are counterproductive unless consumers fail to make efficiency investments when private benefits exceed costs. If the gain from adopting efficiency is only reduced electricity spending, capping revenues from energy sales may induce a utility to substitute efficiency for generation when the former is less costly. This goes beyond standard “decoupling” of distribution revenues from sales, requiring complex energy price regulation. The models’ results are used to evaluate tests in the 2002 California Standard Practice Manual for assessing demand-side management programs. Its “Ratepayer Impact Measure” test best conforms to the condition that electricity price is too low. Its “Total Resource Cost” and “Societal Cost” tests resemble the condition for expanded decoupling. No test incorporates optimality conditions apart from consumer choice failure.     

Implicit auctioning on the Kontek Cable: Third time lucky?

Implicit auctioning in Europe is about eliminating cross-border trade inefficiencies by internalizing cross-border trade into the day-ahead auction procedures of the Power Exchanges that are already organizing trade nationally. On the Kontek Cable, implicit auctioning has first been implemented with “no coupling” between the relevant Power Exchanges, followed by a “volume coupling” implementation, and finally a “one way price coupling” implementation that is still operational today. The main contribution of this paper is to compare the theoretical properties of these three implementations and to analyze their performance empirically. We find that the third implementation is significantly outperforming the previous two implementations, but in this third implementation stakeholders partly abandoned the “volume coupling” approach they initially believed to be a viable alternative and institutionally easier to implement.     

Deregulating with no regulator: Is the German electricity transmission regime institutionally correct?

From 1998 to 2005, the German transmission grid has been put under a self-regulated arrangement. It seems hard to believe that transmission lines can be opened to “third-party access” only with a “negotiated access regime” and no regulator supervision. It seems contradictory with the notion of “ex post contractual hazards” promoted by V. Goldberg and O. Williamson. If a weak institutional arrangement is implemented, one might assume that it has to be harmful to network and market access. If it is not to be inefficient, why and how could it work? When looking at rules and prices for accessing the transmission network and the corresponding wholesale markets in Germany, the “club” arrangement for transmission opening does not appear so harmful. Accordingly, we have to reconsider the ex ante and ex post institutional mechanism of such a “club” arrangement. Ex ante, we first reconsider skills and strengths of industrial consumers and German Business associations in defining and assessing rules of transmission access. We underline that incomplete vertical and horizontal integration of German electricity companies impeded extensive cartel collusion. Ex post, we first look at a strong Competition Authority backing. Then we discover that ex ante and ex post dimensions are much more mixed and reinforced in an open “cumulative pro-competition process” framed by the Competition Authority.     

The cost of domestic energy prices to Saudi Arabia

The issue of subsidies on domestic energy prices has moved up the policy agenda, most recently as a result of the G20 commitment in September 2009 to phase out such subsidies. However, what constitutes a “subsidy” is complex and controversial. The IEA in its last World Energy Outlook claimed that Saudi Arabia was second in the world in terms of its levels of subsidy on domestic energy prices. However, because Saudi Arabia is a price maker in the international oil market, the methodology used by the IEA is seriously flawed. This paper explains the problems with the methodology for computing subsidies and explains the correct method in the case of Saudi Arabia. It then attempts to measure the levels of subsidy in Saudi Arabia using this methodology. However, while it converts the IEA's “subsidy” of $23 billion into a net “profit” of $5.7 billion, it goes on to point out that the current low price regime is causing problems for Saudi Arabia.     

Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): Theoretical concepts and basic rationale

The multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach makes it possible to perform a check on the feasibility and desirability of patterns of metabolism of socio-economic systems by providing a characterization at different levels and scales of: (a) the performance of socio-economic activities (for households, enterprises, economic sectors, national economies, world economy) and (b) ecological constraints (micro, meso, macro) by looking at the interference that the metabolism of matter and energy flows controlled by human activity induces on the expected pattern of metabolism of matter and energy flows associated with the self-organization of natural ecosystems. This paper presents three theoretical concepts behind the analytical approach MuSIASEM: (1) how to represent the endosomatic and exosomatic metabolism of societies using Georgescu-Roegen's flow–fund scheme; (2) how to generate a Sudoku effect across representations of different units of production and consumption defined at different levels; and (3) how to perform an impredicative loop analysis when dealing with changes (evolution) of the characteristics of dynamic budgets of metabolized flows, represented across different scales. Since sustainability deals with “becoming systems”—systems becoming something else in their process of evolution—an analysis of sustainability must adopt analytical tools semantically open in their representation of change. MuSIASEM can do that since it is a “multi-purpose grammar”, which can be used for building a shared perception and representation of this “becoming” when studying sustainability. That is, it entails an agreement on an expected set of relations between “relevant semantic categories” and “pertinent formal categories” across hierarchical levels and across different narratives; for this reason it represents a clear discontinuity from models developed within the paradigm of reductionism to deal with the issue of sustainability.     

Benefits from coordinating congestion management—The Nordic power market

We consider the possibility of improving the utilization of the capacity of the Nordic transmission grid, by improving on the methods for congestion management. We use a simplified model of the Nordic power market, and different load-scenarios are developed in order to illustrate the effects. By improving the coordination of the system operator function, we may achieve that the actual bottlenecks, both as regards to the location and capacity, form the basis for the definition of price areas. This may result in a better partition of the grid, not necessarily following the borders between the control areas of today's system operators. We also consider solving intra zonal bottlenecks “directly”, through the area prices and “indirectly” by “moving” internal capacity constraints to the borders between price areas. The examples illustrate that this “indirect” congestion management may be costly, and result in larger price differences than necessary.     

Policy progress in mitigation of climate change in Taiwan

To make an active contribution to the global effort in mitigation of climate change, Taiwan government has implemented the “Frameworks for Sustainable Energy Policy—An Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reduction Action Plan” in June 2008. It has made a commitment of a stepwise reduction of nationwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which returns the nationwide GHG emission to 2008 levels by 2020, then reduces to 2000 levels by 2025, and finally cuts 50% of 2000 levels by 2050. The fundamental strategy is to reduce the GHG emission under acceptable economic development and energy security to achieve generation-spanning triple-win in energy, environment and economy. The major policy instruments such as “Statute for Renewable Energy Development”, “GHG Reduction Law (draft),” “Regulation for Energy Tax (draft),” and “Energy Management Act” have been either implemented or scheduled for legislative reviewing. The purpose of this paper is to present an updated review of the outcomes of GHG emission reduction in Taiwan. In addition, the progress and priority of policy instruments in GHG emission reduction are analyzed as well.     

System design and control strategy of the vehicles using hydrogen energy

This paper presented a system design review of fuel cell hybrid vehicle. Fuel supply, hydrogen storage, DC/DC converters, fuel cell system and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle configurations were also reviewed. We explained the difference of fuel supply requirement between hydrogen vehicle and conventional vehicles. Three different types of hydrogen storage system for fuel supply are briefly introduced: high pressure, liquid storage and metal oxides storage. Considering of the potential risk of explosion, a security hydrogen storage system is designed to restrict gas pressure in the safe range. Due to the poor dynamic performance of fuel cells, DC/DC converters were added in hybrid vehicle system to improve response to the changes of power demand. Requirements that in order to select a suitable DC/DC converter for fuel-cell vehicles design were listed. We also discussed three different configurations of fuel-cell hybrid vehicles: “FC + B”, “FC + C”, and “FC + B + C”, describing both disadvantages and advantages. “FC + B + C” structure has a better performance among three structures because it could provide or absorb peak current during acceleration and emergency braking. Finally, the energy management strategies of fuel cell and were proposed and the automotive energy power requirement of an application example was calculated.     

Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia

“Energy Security” has typically, to those involved in making energy policy, meant mostly securing access to oil and other fossil fuels. With increasingly global, diverse energy markets, however, and increasingly transnational problems resulting from energy transformation and use, old energy security rationales are less salient, and other issues, including climate change and other environmental, economic, and international considerations are becoming increasingly important. As a consequence, a more comprehensive operating definition of “Energy Security” is needed, along with a workable framework for analysis of which future energy paths or scenarios are likely to yield greater Energy Security in a broader, more comprehensive sense. Work done as a part of the Nautilus Institute's “Pacific Asia Regional Energy Security” (PARES) project developed a broader definition of Energy Security, and described an analytical framework designed to help to compare the energy security characteristics – both positive and negative – of different quantitative energy paths as developed using software tools such as the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) system.     

Strategies for regional integration of electricity supply in West Africa

To improve peoples’ living conditions in West African countries national governments have to considerably reinforce the electricity supply infrastructures. Rehabilitation of the existing installations and construction of new power generation facilities and transmission lines require substantial resources which are tremendously difficult to raise due to the region's specific economical and political conditions. This paper examines the long-term prospects for integrated development of the regional electricity industry and evaluates its advantages by using PLANELEC-Pro, a “bottom-up” electricity system expansion planning optimisation model. The evolution of regional electricity market is analysed on the basis of two strategies. The “autarkical” strategy consists in adequate expansion of national power generation systems and the exchanges of electricity between the countries in sub-zones. Another approach referred to as “integration” strategy is recommended in this article. It leads to fast retirement of the obsolete power plants and the integration of new investment projects at the level of whole West African sub-region. The main finding is that the regional integration strategy is capable to bring about additional benefits in terms of reduced capital expenditures, lower electricity supply cost and the enhanced system's reliability compared to the autarkical strategy.