An indicator framework for assessing US state carbon emissions reduction efforts (with baseline trends from 1990 to 2001)

States are at the forefront of climate-related energy policy in the US, developing innovative policy and regional institutions for reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. States matter because the larger ones use more energy and produce more carbon emissions than most nations and because their policies, though heterogeneous and until recently quite limited in scope, are shaping the context for national climate action. Despite this significance, little is known about trends in state carbon emissions or the effectiveness of state policies in reducing emissions. This paper describes a framework for analyzing and comparing state carbon emissions performance using sectoral indicators of emissions, energy consumption and carbon intensity linked to key policy domains. The paper also describes the range of state experience across indicators during the period 1990–2001, establishing a baseline of leading, lagging and average experience against which future state and regional change can be assessed. The conceptual framework and the empirical analysis of emission trends are intended to provide a better understanding of, and means for monitoring, state contributions toward achieving energy system sustainability.     

Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options

Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific – sometimes relatively costly – technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO₂-equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions reduction strategy and effects on greenhouse gas emissions

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in the availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At higher leakage levels, the additional methane emissions could offset the carbon dioxide emissions reduction benefit of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is required to meet a specific carbon dioxide reduction target across a number of scenarios in which the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with carbon dioxide emissions and a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production along with upstream methane and carbon dioxide emissions associated with production of coal and oil. While the system carbon dioxide emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions show an increase in scenarios in which natural gas prices remain low and, simultaneously, methane emissions from natural gas production are higher.     

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

This paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO₂e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO₂e in 2020 to 16 2US$/tCO₂e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.     

First‐mover advantages of the European Union's climate change mitigation strategy

This paper assesses the costs and benefits for the European Union (EU) as a first mover in climate change mitigation. Scenarios of EU and global climate action to 2050 are quantified using the GEME3‐RD model, a global multi‐sectoral computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technology progress and detailed representation of the clean energy technologies. The model includes two‐factor learning curves (stock and research and development funding) for clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage, and renewable and efficient appliances. Funding of research and development is endogenously derived as a production factor enabling productivity improvement. The scenarios compare stylised climate strategies, which are asymmetric by world region and have different emission reduction profiles over time. Assuming that strong climate mitigation action will be undertaken only after 2030, the scenarios compare two main strategies for the EU: pursuing strong emission reduction unilaterally until 2030 versus deferring action for the period after 2030. Asymmetric climate action by region enables asymmetric innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies. The macroeconomic assessment of the climate action strategies does not only depend on costs of clean technologies but also on induced technology progress implying asymmetric effects on manufacturing and trade by region, taking into account spillovers. The model‐based projections show clear advantages for the EU as a first mover in climate change mitigation compared with a delaying of climate action until 2030. Delayed climate action until 2030 implies higher gross domestic product losses for the EU compared with unilateral action until 2030. The model finds benefits of early action by the EU driven by activity and progress related to clean energy technologies as the EU can achieve competitive advantages over other world regions pursuing climate action later. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.     

Models for assessing net CO2 emissions applied on district heating technologies

Methodologies to assess the effects of energy projects on global carbon dioxide emissions will be an important feature of a future international carbon dioxide trading system. In this paper, we present and discuss four different models for assessing the net carbon dioxide emissions resulting from a certain energy project. These models are applied to different district heating technologies. To judge the mitigation performance of a project, the amount of carbon dioxide released in kilograms is expressed per megawatt‐hour of useful district heating produced. All the models consider the marginal change caused by the project on the electric power system. The different model perspectives are discussed, and it is shown that the choice of model is very critical for assessing the net carbon dioxide emissions from an energy project. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by “peak oil” adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this “peak fossil-fuel” limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 °C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.     

Hydrogen utilization in various transportation modes with emissions comparisons for Ontario, Canada

The paper compares the atmospheric emissions of different hydrogen production scenarios for various transportation modes in a case study for Ontario, Canada. Hydrogen demand scenarios are based on historical data of the various transportation modes. Predicting the CO₂ emissions for a market with hydrogen vehicles against a purely fossil fuel market outlines the benefits of utilizing hydrogen. For road vehicles less than 4,500 kg in weight, emissions from a thermochemical production fraction of 20% produced a 9.8% decrease in CO₂ emissions (or over 3,000 kilotonnes), compared to a 100% fossil fuel market. When these studies are applied to other transportation modes such as rail, air and marine, similar trends are observed. The largest benefits occur from automobiles and rail, where increasing carbon emission trends were reversed due to the increasing hydrogen propulsion base. Further decreases in carbon dioxide emissions could be realized by lower emitting production sources such as nuclear thermochemical production and electrolysis from wind, solar, and hydro.     

The implications of the historical decline in US energy intensity for long-run CO2 emission projections

This paper analyzes the influence of the long-run decline in US energy intensity on projections of energy use and carbon emissions to the year 2050. We build on our own recent work which decomposes changes in the aggregate US energy–GDP ratio into shifts in sectoral composition (structural change) and adjustments in the energy demand of individual industries (intensity change), and identifies the impact on the latter of price-induced substitution of variable inputs, shifts in the composition of capital and embodied and disembodied technical progress. We employ a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy to analyze the implications of these findings for future energy use and carbon emissions. Comparison of the simulation results against projections of historical trends in GDP, energy use and emissions reveals that the range of values for the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) conventionally used in CGE models is consistent with the effects of structural changes at the sub-sector level, rather than disembodied technological change. Even so, our results suggest that US emissions may well grow faster in the future than in the recent past.     

Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi

Urban centers are the major consumers of energy, which is a major source of air pollution. Therefore, an insight into energy consumption and quantification of emissions from urban areas are extremely important for identifying impacts and finding solution to air pollution in urban centers. This paper applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for modeling the total energy consumption and associated emissions from the household sector of Delhi. Energy consumption under different sets of policy and technology options are analyzed for a time span of 2001–2021 and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrous oxide (N₂O), total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are estimated. Different scenarios are generated to examine the level of pollution reduction achievable by application of various options. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is developed considering the time series trends of energy use in Delhi households. The fuel substitution (FS) scenario analyzes policies having potential to impact fuel switching and their implications towards reducing emissions. The energy conservation (EC) scenario focuses on efficiency improvement technologies and policies for energy-intensity reduction. An integrated (INT) scenario is also generated to assess the cumulative impact of the two alternate scenarios on energy consumption and direct emissions from household sectors of Delhi. Maximum reduction in energy consumption in households of Delhi is observed in the EC scenario, whereas, the FS scenario seems to be a viable option if the emission loadings are to be reduced.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.     

The effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s energy use and CO2 emissions: a CGE model-based analysis

With its rapid economic growth, China is now confronted with soaring pressure from both its energy supply and the environment. To deal with this conflict, energy end-use efficiency improvement is now promoted by the government as an emphasis for future energy saving. This study explores the general equilibrium effect of energy end-use efficiency improvement on China’s economy, energy use, and CO₂ emissions. This paper develops a static, multisector computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for China, with specific detail in energy use and with the embodiment of energy efficiency. In order to explore the ability of subsidizing non-fossil-generated electricity on moderating potential rebound effects, in this model, the electricity sector was deconstructed into five specific generation activities using bottom–up data from the Chinese electricity industry. The model is calibrated into a 16-sector Chinese Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2002. In the analysis, seven scenarios were established: business as usual, solely efficiency improvement, and five policy scenarios (taxing carbon, subsidized hydropower, subsidized nuclear power, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized hydropower, combination of taxing carbon and subsidized nuclear power). Results show that a sectoral-uniform improvement of energy end-use efficiency will increase rather than decrease the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The sensitivity analysis of sectoral efficiency improvement shows that efficiency improvements happened in different sectors may have obvious different extents of rebound. The three sectors, whose efficient improvements do not drive-up total national energy use and CO₂ emissions, include Iron and Steel, Building Materials, and Construction. Thus, the improvement of energy end-use efficiency should be sectoral specific. When differentiating the sectoral energy-saving goal, not only the saving potential of each sector but also its potential to ease the total rebound should be taken into account. Moreover, since the potential efficiency improvement for a sector over a certain period will be limited, technology measures should work along with a specific policy to neutralize the rebound effect. Results of policy analysis show that one relatively enhanced way is to combine carbon taxing with subsidized hydropower.     

Leapfrogging over development? Promoting rural renewables for climate change mitigation

Renewable energy technologies have the potential to help solve two pressing problems. On one hand, carbon-free energy sources must play a role in climate change mitigation. On the other hand, renewables might help meet needs of rural people without access to modern energy services. However, if renewables are deployed to combat climate change (primarily resulting from emissions in the developed economies) then providing basic energy services in the developing world may be compromised. The tendency to conflate the two drivers by installing renewables in rural areas for carbon mitigation reasons rather than for development reasons could compromise both goals. The danger is supporting sub-optimal policies for mitigating carbon and for rural energy. This is problematic given the limited funds available for energy development and reducing greenhouse gases. This paper analyzes how these goals have been balanced by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Project documents are used to determine whether incremental costs of installing renewables were covered by GEF funds and whether the costs are comparable with other carbon mitigation options. The results raise concerns about the effectiveness and appropriateness of GEF funding of such projects and highlight the importance of post-Kyoto framework design to reduce emissions and promote development.     

Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict. Regional efforts are also unfolding, along with greater congressional attention to the lessons learned and commitments made by sub-federal actions. In the next few years many national energy and climate conflicts are likely to be tested and addressed by states. Among these, Pennsylvania is likely to be an important player due to its high profile of energy production and potential for leadership.     

Energy demand and supply,energy policies,and energy security in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use—especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors—have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's “green economy” and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.     

Analysis and forecast of the Tianjin industrial carbon dioxide emissions resulted from energy consumption

This paper analyses the carbon dioxide emissions caused by industrial energy consumption of Tianjin from 2005 to 2012. The carbon emissions decomposition illustrated that the scale of production factor played a major role in the growth of Tianjin industrial carbon emissions and the average contribution of carbon emissions is up to 220.8975% in the statistical period; the intensity of energy factor played an important role in slowing down the growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The average contribution of carbon emissions was ?136.1994% in the statistical period. The prediction model based on carbon emissions data from industrial energy consumption from 2003 to 2012 reached a high accuracy, with an average error of 1.78% for stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, 2.41% for the Logistic regression model and an average error of 1.54% for the grey model. This research can contribute to predict the carbon emission and through it some suggestions can be made.     

Calculating residential carbon dioxide emissions—a new approach

All Annex 1 Parties are required to submit an annual national greenhouse gas inventory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using the common report format. The inventory is to include a sectoral report for energy, listing different sectors and their associated greenhouse gas emissions (principally carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide). The sectors and their associated emissions can be used as a benchmark to show changes in emissions over time. In certain cases, these changes can be misleading, since an apparent emission reduction in one sector can result in a significant increase in the emissions of another, typically electricity production. Applying the emissions to the sector responsible for the final energy demand (as opposed to the sector that generates the energy) allows researchers and policy makers to develop reduction strategies that are targeted to the demand.This paper demonstrates this by removing the equivalent residential emissions from category A.1.a (Public Electricity and Heat Production) and applying them to category A.4.b (Residential) in Nova Scotia, a Canadian province that relies heavily on fossil fuels for electrical generation. The shift in emissions changes an apparent 4.1 percent decrease in Nova Scotia's residential emissions between 1991 and 2001 to an 8.2 percent increase.     

Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model

China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion had increased with an annual growth rate of 4.36% since 1980, hitting 1 GtC in 2003. The global climate change issue is becoming more and more important and hence to be the fourth challenge for China's future energy development, following energy supply shortages, energy security, and local environmental protection. This paper used three MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) family models, that is, MARKAL, MARKAL-ED (MARKAL with elastic demand), and MARKAL-MACRO, to study China energy system's carbon mitigation strategies and corresponding impacts on the economy. The models’ structures and the economic feedback formulations used in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED are briefly described. The endogenous demands in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED enable them to partly satisfy carbon abatement constraints via energy service demand reductions, and the reduction levels for the 30 demand sectors from these two kinds of models for given carbon emission constraints are presented and compared. The impact of carbon mitigation on social welfare from MARKAL and MARKAL-ED, and on GDP, investment and consumption from MARKAL-MACRO are evaluated. The changes in both final and primary energy mix, changes in technology development, as well as marginal abatement costs for given carbon constraints from the three models, are analyzed.