An oil import fee and drilling activity in the USA : A comment

Edward F. Renshaw's [5] recent analysis of the impact of a $5/bbl oil import fee on drilling activity in the USA is re-examined. Specifically, this comment shows: (i) the initial stimulus to the US rotary rig count of 420 new rigs would not completely disappear over the next five years, but last much longer; (ii) the initial employment impact would be more than twice as large as Renshaw suggested (39 060 rather than 18 480); and (iii) the relevant social cost per new job (excluding transfers) could be as small as $19 200, more than 80 times smaller than Renshaw's estimate of $1.6 million.     

The impact of oil drilling on the behavioral intention of tourists: an empirical investigation

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the effect that several kinds of risks, associated with hypothetical oil drillings in the Canary Islands, could have on the behavioral intentions of tourists. A panel survey collected from 639 nonresident tourists about destination image, risk perception, and intention to visit or recommend the islands. The risks associated with the possible oil extractions significantly harming perceived image and behavioral intention by around 43%, with the intention to recommend being more affected than the intention to revisit. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to develop a theoretical model following a recent trend integrating the destination image and risk literatures. Results highlight the key role of perceived risk in creating destination image and provides evidence of the mediating role of image between risk and behavioral intention. The affective image component has a greater impact on behavioral intention than the cognitive one. The outcomes of this study point out the importance, for destination marketers and policymakers, of mitigating the effects of the risk derived from oil drilling. Emphasis is placed on the importance of information and promotion campaigns in which the safety of the destination is remarked.     

Should the UK be talking to OPEC? Strategies for a non-OPEC oil producer

Non-OPEC oil producers face a difficult choice in a weak oil market: cut production maintain output and risk a sharp drop in price. The way out of this dilemma is to keep an open mind on production, pending negotiations with both OPEC and the oil consumers of the OECD for compensation in return for a favourable decision on oil output. This flexible strategy could lead to a gain of several billion $/year for a non-OPEC producer like the UK.     

Maximizing efficiency in the transition to a coal-based economy

Energy is the lynchpin of modern society. Since the early 1970s, growing dependence on foreign energy sources, oil in particular, has constrained US independence in foreign policy, and at times, inhibited economic stability and growth. Addressing oil dependence is politically and economically complex. Proposed solutions are multifaceted with various objectives such as energy efficiency and resource substitution. One solution is the partial transition from an oil- to coal-based economy. A number of facts support this solution including vast coal reserves in the US and the relative price stability of coal. However, several roadblocks exist. These include uncertain recoverable reserves and the immaturity of “clean” coal technologies. This paper provides a first order analysis of the most efficient use of coal assuming the transition from oil to coal is desirable. Scenario analysis indicates two possible transition pathways: (1) bring the transportation sector onto the electric grid and (2) use coal-to-liquid fuels to directly power vehicles. The feasibility of each pathway is examined based on economic and environmental factors, among which are energy availability, affordability and efficiency, and environmental sustainability. Results indicate that partial transition of the transportation sector onto the electric grid offers the more viable solution for coal-based reduction of the US oil dependence.     

2010年全球石油市场基本面因素分析及2011年展望

供应、需求、库存是决定石油市场供需平衡的基本面因素.2010年全球石油市场需求旺盛、供应充足、库存处于高位,石油市场整体处于相对宽松平衡状态,油价相对平稳;2011年,因受市场流动性、利比亚局势、日本地震等因素影响,石油市场供需平衡将受到需求和供应变化的影响,油价上涨和波动的幅度较大.     

探究增压直喷机型机油稀释的影响因素及解决方法

机油稀释现象是发动机常见的试验表象之一,尤其是增压缸内直喷汽油发动机,机油稀释较明显。机油发生稀释后会破坏机油使用性能,降低运动粘度,严重时还导致机油压力下降,零部件功能丧失,发动机可靠性下降。主要分析一款1.8L GDI缸内增压直喷发动机产生机油稀释的影响因素进而对机油牌号、机油温度、水温、SOI角度、曲轴箱通风系统、活塞漏气量、喷油器布置方式进行Benchmark分析及优化验证,为改善增压直喷发动机机油稀释现象提供解决方法,机油稀释包括燃油喷射稀释和机油挥发稀释,重点探究的方向是燃油喷射稀释。     

Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk.     

发动机润滑系统典型组成部件工作性能的试验研究

在各自专用试验台上，参照相应标准规范要求，分别对发动机润滑系统典型组成部件机油泵、机油滤清器和机油冷却器的工作性能进行了试验研究。试验重点考察了机油温度、机油泵转速以及出油压力等因素对机油泵供油特性的影响，分析了在各种温度下机油流经滤清器和冷却器时机油流量与其所产生的压降之间的关系。研究结果可以为发动机润滑系统设计和分析提供参考。     

Break-even price for upstream activities in Brazil: Evaluation of the opportunity cost of oil production delay in a non-mature sedimentary production region

Some Latin American policy-makers and analysts state that it would be better to hold oil reserves in place than to produce and cash it now, given the recent oil prices spikes and the fear related to future oil supply disruptions. This article evaluates the strategy of delaying the start-up of oil production in a discovered field with proved reserves. A Reference Discounted Cash Flow (FCD-R) for a typical 350 million barrel Brazilian oil field was simulated. The study estimated which future oil price may render the project insensitive to a delay of 5, 10, 15 or 20 years in its production beginning. Additionally, the value of the in situ oil stock was calculated, providing the opportunity cost for delaying oil production in a frontier area, such as Brazil. It is an application of the Hotelling Principle. Findings indicate that progressive delays of 5 years in the start-up of operation of a typical oil field reduce its revenues by a factor of 2. A delay of 10 years would be justifiable at international oil prices higher than US $15/bbl. Delays higher than 10 years lead this break-even price to values between US $200 and 350/bbl.     

谈如何进行监测采样

叙述了环境监测采用的工况条件、采样点的布设、采样前的准备工作、采用记录等。讨论了在采样过程容易被忽视的，对监测结果产生影响的因素及采样过程应当遵循的规则。     

双环活塞汽油机的试验研究

本文提供了一种新型的组合气环结构并阐述了具有一道组合气环的二环活塞在CS492Q 型汽油机上的试验研究工作。研究结果为在国产车用汽油机上采用二环活塞提供了科学依据。     

怎样创造和谐的合资企业文化

美国著名管理学家彼得.德鲁克在其《管理学》一书中提出:管理不只是一门科学,还是一门文化,有它自己的价值观、信仰和语言。任何企业都是在一定的文化背景中生存和发展。这种文化不仅制约着企业的营销方式,也制约着企业的管理。如今,中国主要的汽车合资企业大多来自于美德日,总的来讲,一个中外合资企业要持续发展,必须首先深入了解合资外方的经济模式、文化背景、管理模式;建立一个适合企业的充满活力的、和谐的企业文化。     

Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil “for years to come”. Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes.     

Effects of oil on output growth and inflation in developing countries: The case of Thailand from January 1966 to January 1991

The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models and quarterly data on crude oil consumption, GDP and inflation in Thailand to investigate the long-term relationships in the sense of Granger between oil and these two major macroeconomic aggregates. For the period from January 1966 to January 1991, the empirical evidence indicates that oil consumption, output growth and inflation rate, as formulated in our models, are not random walks. In addition, oil consumption is significantly cointegrated with economic growth and, unfortunately, inflation rate.     

热分离式机油滤清器的试验分析

现介绍一种新型热分离式机油滤清器，它采用电加热方法汽化水和其它易挥发性液体，同时采用滤芯去除固体颗粒，从而达到清除机油中固体杂质，又分离机油中液体污物的目的。     

State governance evolution in resource-rich transition economies: An application to Russia and Kazakhstan

Following a decade of transition in the Former Soviet Union (FSU), governance of the oil and gas sectors has evolved to economic nationalism. In the newly independent states this has manifested itself through greater (direct) state ownership or participation in oil and gas production, at the expense of both domestic (in the case of Russia) and international oil companies, as well as legislative developments that increase the flow of oil and gas value to the state. Here we analyse some of the dynamics giving rise to economic nationalism within a model of a state capacity and the ability to implement policy and extract value. Our analysis is based on the institutional and economic functioning of the oil and gas sector. We analyse a vector of institutions and examine Production Sharing Agreements and National Oil Companies.     

Cultural challenges to Chinese oil companies in Africa and their strategies

This paper investigates the cultural challenges faced by Chinese oil companies in Africa with the linguistic method and raises five corresponding suggestions in the end. First, the languages and culture of both African countries and China were studied, and the differences between them were uncovered. Second, the effects of colonization on African languages and culture were studied in a historically comparative way; the African tradition and modern culture were considered jointly. Third, the acknowledgement that African people give to Chinese culture was studied; the future development of Chinese cultural influence in Africa was anticipated. Based on all these studies, the cultural challenges to overseas investment management of Chinese oil companies in Africa were summarized into five aspects, i.e., the challenge in communication, working habit, religion, orientation and coexistence. Considering the lessons that some of the western oil companies have learnt in Africa and the development status of Chinese oil companies, five suggestions were given as follows: going aligned with the foreign policy of Chinese government, investigating and setting regulations, strengthening cross-cultural training for staff, developing harmonious relationship with the local communities and the application of localization.     

Future oil production in Brazil—Estimates based on a Hubbert model

This paper forecasts oil production in Brazil, according to the Hubbert model and different probabilities for adding reserves. It analyzes why the Hubbert model might be more appropriate to the Brazilian oil industry than that of Hotelling, as it implicitly emphasizes the impacts of information and depletion on the derivative over time of the accumulated discoveries. Brazil's oil production curves indicate production peaks with a time lag of more than 15 years, depending on the certainty (degree of information) associated with the reserves. Reserves with 75% certainty peak at 3.27 Mbpd in 2020, while reserves with 50% certainty peak at 3.28 Mbpd in 2028, and with 30% certainty peak at 3.88 Mbpd in 2036. These findings show that Brazil oil industry is in a stage where the positive impacts of information on expanding reserves (mainly through discoveries) may outstrip the negative impacts of depletion. The still limited number of wells drilled by accumulated discoveries also explain this assertion. Being a characteristic of frontier areas such as Brazil, this indicates the need for ongoing exploratory efforts.     

Price ceilings as focal points to reach price uniformity: Evidence from a Chinese gasoline market

This paper studies the price uniformity in the Chinese gasoline market, using station-level data of Hohhot city, Inner Mongolia. We first document that the mode prices of the gasoline stations are consistent with the price ceilings set by the government, implying that the price ceiling regulation in the Chinese gasoline market may serve as a focal point for the gasoline stations to reach price uniformity. We corroborate the focal point hypothesis by providing evidence showing that some stations would “jump” to the ceilings as their prices approach the ceilings. Also, we find that local market structure, distance between stations, station capacity, market characteristics, and past pricing behavior could affect the probability of gas stations to price at the ceilings. Moreover, a higher price ceiling would reduce the probability that stations reach price uniformity. Our results provide another piece of evidence to the literature regarding the unintended effect of price ceiling regulation.