Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper uses an international multi-factor model in order to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and stock market returns for the emerging capital markets of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). A panel data approach is being employed for the period covering 22 October 1999 until 23 August 2007. The oil price beta is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting that the oil price is indeed an important factor in determining stock returns. No statistically significant non-linear dependency is found between market risk and emerging market stock returns or between oil price risk and returns. Observation of conditional models shows positive reaction of emerging stock market returns to upward movements of market returns. The reaction of the stock returns to upward and downward movements of the oil market is also negative but more significant when oil prices are low.     

Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea

How important are oil price fluctuations and oil price volatility on equity market performance? What are the policy implications if volatility turns out to be significant? We assess this issue in an economics/finance nexus for Korea using a VEC model including interest rates, economic activity, real stock returns, real oil prices and oil price volatility. Our main aim is to capture the effects of crude oil prices on the Korean economy thoroughly covering the period of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, which heavily affected the country, and the oil price hikes in the early 1990s after the Gulf War. South Korea was the country most hit by the financial crisis together with Indonesia and Thailand. Results indicate the dominance of oil price volatility on real stock returns and emphasize how this has increased over time. Oil price volatility can have profound effect on the time horizon of investment and firms need adjust their risk management procedures accordingly. This increase in dependency has been found in other net oil importing emerging equity markets. We test the relationship between oil price movements and economic activity by using modern time series techniques in a cointegrating framework. We expand the standard error correction model by examining the dynamics of out of sample causality through the generalized variance decomposition and impulse response function techniques. The evidence from persistence profiles also gives important guidelines based on how fast the entire system adjusts back to equilibrium. In addition, we find the cointegrating relationship to be stable and find that the linear error correction model to be more favorable than an asymmetric 2 period Markov switching model.     

Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam’s stock prices

The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam’s stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000–2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market.     

Oil prices,fundamentals and expectations

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between oil prices, traditional fundamentals and expectations. Informational frictions may force a wedge between oil prices and supply and/or demand shocks, especially during periods of elevated risk aversion and uncertainty. In such a context, expectations can be a key driver of oil price movements and their impact can vary over time. Overall, we find that both traditional oil fundamentals and forward-looking expectations matter for oil prices. Our findings show that the real price of oil responds differently to expectations shocks of business leaders, consumers and aggregate markets. Our TVP-VAR approach provides evidence that business leaders' expectations play an important role in terms of oil price fluctuations and the impact is stronger in periods of elevated global oil demand. In terms of traditional oil market fundamentals, we find that oil prices have been significantly affected by the recent US shale oil boom. Moreover, global oil demand had a positive impact upon oil prices, especially from the mid-2000s. Several alternative model specifications prove the robustness of our analysis.     

Dynamics of oil price,precious metal prices and the exchange rate in the long-run

We examine the relationship between the oil price, prices of precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) and the US dollar/British Pound exchange rate using parametric and non-parametric modelling over a 135-year period. For the parametric model, we employ a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and find non-linearity and asymmetries in the long-term relationship between the oil-gold price and oil-silver price pairs during the ‘typical regime’, in which the majority of observations lie. Non-linear Granger causality suggests evidence of bidirectional and unidirectional causality. For the non-parametric model, we employ Local Linear (LL) non-parametric regression to relax the assumptions regarding functional form. The relationship between the oil price and each of the precious metal prices and the exchange rate exhibit non-linearities. The relationship between precious metal prices and the oil price is positive and generally increasing over time, while the LL estimates for the exchange rate are negative and then positive and highly non-linear.     

Spillovers between oil and stock returns in the US energy sector: Does idiosyncratic information matter?

This paper investigates the inter-connectedness between WTI oil price returns and the returns of listed firms in the US energy sector. Specifically, we focus on the issue of whether firm-level idiosyncratic information matters. A generalised dynamic factor model is used to separate common components from idiosyncratic components in these energy stocks. Systemic connectedness is then estimated following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Our empirical results demonstrate the important role of industrial-level common information in understanding the oil–stock relationship. A number of interesting points include: the US energy sector is the net contributor to WTI price changes, but the effect is mainly driven by industrial-level common information; the oil and gas industry dominates other industries in the energy sector; the dynamic analysis shows that although idiosyncratic information is mostly independent of oil shocks, individual energy stock returns do respond to WTI price movements.     

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets.     

The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis

This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates. We employ quantile regression analysis and allow for structural breaks and asymmetry. Our results indicate that positive and negative oil price shocks have asymmetrical effects on exchange rate returns that vary in significance, size, and sign throughout the distribution of exchange rate returns. The impact of oil price shocks is also affected by market conditions (bearish and bullish currency markets). During bullish markets in domestic currencies, (at lower quantiles of currency movements in terms of U.S. dollar exchange rates), rising oil prices cause further appreciation for Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand currencies. During bearish markets in the domestic currencies (at higher quantiles of exchange rate movements in terms of U.S. dollar exchange rates), rising (falling) oil price causes further currency depreciation for Indonesia (Malaysia). Thus, currencies respond differently to oil price shocks under extreme bullish or bearish currency market conditions and the impact of rising or falling oil prices on foreign exchange markets can vary by country and market conditions.     

U.S. stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis

Using daily data from January 1999 to December 2011, we examine U.S. stock returns (S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000) based on a wide range of information, including equity VIX volatility, inflation expectations, interest rates, gold prices, and the USD/Euro exchange rate. The focus is on oil price returns, which have been previously found to exert mostly negative effects on U.S. stock returns. Identifying the crisis of 2008–2009 as a significant period of economic contraction and subsequent “recovery”, we check the stability of the stock-oil relationship by GARCH and MGARCH-DCC models. Prior to the financial crisis, stock returns are slightly (negatively) affected by oil prices and by the USD/Euro. For the subsample of mid-2009 onwards, however, stock returns are positively affected by oil prices and a weaker USD/Euro. As with inflation expectations, we interpret these findings as U.S. stocks responding positively to expectations of recovery worldwide. Our proposed explanation is due to the changing correlation between stock markets and oil, either by standard GARCH models or by MGARCH-DCC models allowing the implied correlation to vary over time.     

Analysis of real oil prices via trend-cycle decomposition

The recent fluctuations in the oil prices have intensified the discussion on the dynamics and causes of real oil price changes. While the long-run component of real oil prices seems to have a stochastic trend, global real economic activity has been thought to generate important changes in real oil prices. Based on this argument, in this paper, we analyze the real oil prices within a trend-cycle decomposition framework, where we impose a stochastic trend and assume the cyclical term to be affected by global economic conditions. We also let the parameters vary over time to see whether shocks to trend and the cycle have changing effects on the real oil prices. As a result, we find that shocks to trend are more persistent recently. In that sense, this paper contributes to the literature by offering an explanation for the increased volatility in oil prices. In addition, we show that global economic activity contributed also to the previous oil price shocks, which were regarded mainly as supply-side driven.     

Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies

This study examines the relationship between oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US) using monthly data for the period 1970 to 2014. In order to measure oil volatility we consider alternative specifications for oil prices (world, nominal and real prices). We estimate a vector autoregressive model with the following variables: interest rates, economic activity, stock returns and oil price volatility taking into account the structural break in the year 1986. We find a negative response of G7 stock markets to an increase in oil price volatility. Results also indicate that world oil price volatility is generally more significant for stock markets than the national oil price volatility.     

Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain

Oil prices, inventory levels, and utilization rates are influenced by changes that are transmitted horizontally and/or vertically through the energy supply chain. We define horizontal transmissions as changes that are generated by linkages among fuels at a similar stage of processing while vertical transmissions are changes that are generated by upstream/downstream linkages in the oil supply chain. Here, we investigate vertical and horizontal transmissions by estimating vector error correction models (VECMs) that represent relationships among the price of crude oil, US refinery utilization rates, US stocks of crude oil, US stocks of motor gasoline, the US price of motor gasoline, and the US price of a substitute fuel, natural gas. Causal relationships estimated from both weekly and quarterly observations indicate that the price of crude oil is an important gateway for disturbances to the oil supply chain. Impulse response functions indicate that disturbances to crude oil prices ripple down the oil supply chain and affect inventory behaviors, refinery utilization rates, and the price of motor gasoline, and are transmitted laterally to the natural gas market.     

Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between different oil price shocks and the South African stock market using a sign restriction structural VAR approach for the period 1973:01 to 2011:07. The results show that for an oil-importing country like South Africa, stock returns only increase with oil prices when global economic activity improves. In response to oil supply shocks and speculative demand shocks, stock returns and the real price of oil move in opposite directions. The analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the oil supply shock contributes more to the variability in real stock prices. The main conclusion is that different oil price shocks affect stock returns differently and policy makers and investors should always consider the source of the shock before implementing a policy and making investment decisions.     

Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States: An application of hidden cointegration technique

There is a common belief that gasoline prices respond more quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases. Some economists and politicians believe that asymmetry in oil and gasoline price movements is the outcome of a non-competitive gasoline market requiring that governments take policy action to address “unfair pricing”. There is no consensus as to the existence, or nature, of the asymmetric relationship between prices of gasoline and crude oil. Much of this literature specifies asymmetry in the speed of adjustment and short-run adjustment coefficients. In contrast, Granger and Yoon's [Granger, C.W. and Yoon, G. “Hidden Cointegration”, University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics Working Paper, (2002).] Crouching Error Correction Model (CECM) identifies asymmetry of the cointegrating vectors between components (cumulative positive and negative changes) of the series. Applying the CECM to retail gasoline and crude oil prices for the U.S., we find that there is only evidence of cointegration between positive components of crude oil prices and negative components of gasoline prices. In contrast to the literature which attributes asymmetric price movements to market power of refiners, these findings suggest that gasoline prices –in the long run– are more influenced by the technological changes on the demand side than crude oil price movements on the supply side.     

The economics of energy conservation policies: A study of US primary copper production

US oil and gas price regulation has made energy-saving investments less attractive than they otherwise might have been. The question thus arises: at what energy prices will conservation be attractive? This microeconomic study aims at answering this question for US primary copper firms. The costs and benefits of three major potential energy conserving processes are estimated. A profit-maximizing computer model is then used to simulate the behaviour of three leading US copper producers and their rates of adoption of the conservation measures. The costs associated with energy savings are calculated and the energy price changes necessary for the adoption of the measures are considered. It is concluded that, assuming 1974 prices for non-energy factors, energy prices need to be 110% greater than 1974 levels before energy-saving investment becomes attractive.     

The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration

This paper investigates the existence of a long-term relationship between oil prices and GDP in 12 European countries. To account for the fact that economic activity responds asymmetrically to oil price shocks, we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration. Our results show that, while standard cointegration is rejected, there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and GDP in the majority of the considered European countries.     

Impact of oil price change on airline's stock price and volatility: Evidence from China and South Korea

Generally, the influence of crude oil price on the industries (enterprises) varies because they have different levels of reliance on crude oil. For airlines, the expenditure on fuel accounts for a considerable proportion of their gross costs; thus, airlines are unusually sensitive to changes in the crude oil price. The discussion on the relationship between crude oil price and airlines will help the airlines improve their ability to cope with the crude oil price risk. In addition, the responses of South Korean and Chinese airlines in the event of a price shock, that take, are also very important as the airplane is a basic form of transportation in many countries. This study investigates the impact of three crude oil price (WTI, Brent, Dubai) change on the stock price and volatility of four airlines (Korean Air, Asiana Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines) using VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The main findings are as follows. There is return and volatility spillover effect between crude oil price and the stock prices of airlines. The volatility spillover effect between the crude oil price and airlines' stock price is more significant than the return spillover effect. Compared with the transportation industry, the stock prices of smaller airlines of South Korea and China are relatively more sensitive to the change in oil price. In addition, compared with Korea's airlines, China's airlines are influenced more by the oil price change, implying that spillover effects owing to oil price are closely related to the different characteristics of the air transport markets of the two countries.     

Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy

Although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances, the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited, especially for oil importing developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the Turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model. Our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment. The results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease, which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short-run. Moreover, when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis, the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant. The final section discusses the policy implications of the results.     

The effect of oil and stock price volatility on firm level investment: The case of UK firms

Crude oil price behaviour has become more volatile since 1973 which has a significant impact on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation and productivity. Studies considering the effects of oil price changes on decisions at the firm level are comparatively few. Oil price volatility represents a source of uncertainty for firm profitability, valuations and investment decisions. This study examines the effects of industry uncertainty and market instability on total investment expenditures in UK firms. Generalized method of moments estimation techniques are applied to a panel data set of UK firms over the period 1986–2011. Tobin′s Q theory is applied to estimate the investment model, which is augmented with measures for both macroeconomic and industry specific uncertainty. Stock price uncertainty seems to be positively related to investment. On the other hand, there is a U shaped relationship between oil price volatility and firm investment. The results will be useful to decision makers, investors, managers and policy makers who need to make investment decisions in an uncertain world.     

Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices.