Spatial development of hydrogen economy in a low-carbon UK energy system

Hydrogen technologies and infrastructures might play a significant role in meeting ambitious climate and energy policy goals of the UK Government. Nonetheless, studies on hydrogen are either limited in scope in that they do not take into account the relationships with the wider energy system drivers and constraints or do not consider how a hydrogen network might develop geographically. This paper presents a framework where a spatially explicit hydrogen module is embedded in the UK MARKAL Energy System model to explore energy system trade-offs for the production, delivery and use of hydrogen at the sub-national level. A set of illustrative scenarios highlight the competitiveness of hydrogen related infrastructures and technologies as well as imported liquid hydrogen against a stringent emissions reduction target; the effect of emissions reduction trajectory on the development of hydrogen network; the intense resource competition between low carbon hydrogen production and electricity generation, and the importance of economies of scale in hydrogen supply and distribution.     

The role of built environment energy efficiency in a sustainable UK energy economy

Energy efficiency in the built environment can make significant contributions to a sustainable energy economy. In order to achieve this, greater public awareness of the importance of energy efficiency is required. In the short term, new efficient domestic appliances, building technologies, legislation quantifying building plant performance, and improved building regulations to include installed plant will be required. Continuing these improvements in the longer term is likely to see the adoption of small-scale renewable technologies embedded in the building fabric. Internet-based energy services could deliver low-cost building energy management and control to the mass market enabling plant to be operated and maintained at optimum performance levels and energy savings quantified. There are many technology options for improved energy performance of the building fabric and energy systems and it is not yet clear which will prove to be the most economic. Therefore, flexibility is needed in legislation and energy-efficiency initiatives.     

The economic case for low-carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang,Indonesia

Where costs or risks are higher, evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed, policymakers can struggle to make the case for low-carbon investment. This is especially the case in developing world cities where decision-makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. Focusing on Palembang in Indonesia, this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low-carbon development. We find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24.1% in 2025, relative to business as usual levels, with investments of USD405.6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by USD436.8 million. Emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12.2% in 2025, relative to business as usual trends, with investments of USD2.9 billion that would generate annual savings of USD175 million. These estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure. The compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic. There is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy.     

Pathways to commercial wind power in the US, Europe and Japan: The role of demonstration projects and field trials in the innovation process

A growing, but little understood area of Government involvement in promoting renewable energy, is the use of demonstration projects and field trials (DTs) as a policy tool. This paper explores the historical role of DTs in the commercialisation of wind turbines. We review information from government, academic and industry sources, together with the newly created Cass Wind DT database, and consider the context, objectives, participants and nature of wind DTs in the EU, US and Japan.Overall, it is difficult to identify the benefits of wind DTs for many of the key actors. Government funding of DTs does not appear to be shaped by coherent or targeted strategic objectives–indeed governments use DTs differently despite similar stated objectives. A common theme has been the involvement of many stakeholders, with local authorities, utilities and operators taking the lead rather than manufacturers. Wind DTs appear to have neither enabled participating manufacturers to become significant global suppliers–with a few exceptions driven by additional financial and legislative support from national governments-nor to have established a dominant design. The major benefit of wind DTs appears to have been ‘learning by using’ for utilities and wind farm operators, reducing operational costs.     

Socio-geographic perception in the diffusion of innovation: Solar energy technology in Sri Lanka

Understandings of the diffusion process have tended to emphasize either the adoption perspective, which focuses on individual characteristics, or the market perspective, which focuses on institutional context. In this paper we bring these two perspectives together by recognizing that people are embedded in socio-geographic contexts that affect their perceptions of their situations, which in turn shape the innovativeness of individuals and places. Focusing on the diffusion of Solar Home Systems (SHS) in Sri Lanka, we explore the role of context at the village (by comparing adoption rates among villages) and individual (by comparing time-to-adoption among household decision makers in a case-study village) scales. At the village scale, we find that expectations of government policy based on interactions related to ethnicity and politicians’ previous power-grid connection promises are significant drivers of SHS adoption, along with perceived tolerance levels in the village for non-conformist behavior. Among household decision makers within the case-study village, we analyze relative adoption time and the duration of the innovation-decision process and find that perceiving strong village-level social control inhibits SHS adoption decision making. The results add to innovation diffusion theory and provide policy recommendations for agencies promoting solar energy in developing countries.     

Holding a candle to innovation in concentrating solar power technologies: A study drawing on patent data

Improved understanding of the innovative pathways of renewable energy technologies is vital if we are to make the transition to a low carbon economy. This study presents new evidence on innovation and industry dynamics in concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. Though CSP is undergoing a renaissance, existing innovation studies have explored innovative activity in solar technologies in general, ignoring the major differences between solar photovoltaic and CSP technologies. This study, based on patent data, examines the level and dynamics of innovative activity in CSP between 1978 and 2004.     

Assessing fuel cell vehicle innovation and the role of policy in Japan,Korea, and China

Despite intensive public and private research efforts into developing fuel cell vehicles (FCV), the global number of FCV remains small and they are unavailable for commercial purchase. We use an in-depth literature review, and bibliometric and patent analysis to analyse FCV technology within the conceptual framework of Rogers' innovation diffusion curve and suggest how the particular innovation systems and policies adopted in three key Asian car-manufacturing countries (Japan, Korea, and China) have influenced the development of FCV. Such analysis may capture trends not indicated by technical measures such as increases in efficiency or decreases in unit cost. Although Japan continues to lead in terms of number of patents and quality of academic research, Korea and China have been successful in developing fuel cell programs. Korean academics patent more frequently than their Japanese and Chinese peers, producing 18% of FC patents, with 16% of those filed also naming a private company. The 2008 financial crisis and ongoing economic uncertainty appears to have had some effect on patent activity whilst academic research appears unaffected. Diffusion curve analysis suggests that FCVs have not reached technological maturity.     

Shaping and exploiting technological opportunities: The case of technology in Taiwan

It is difficult to design, implement, and manage renewable energy projects in Taiwan without a provision for capacity building enabling the application of modern technologies and techniques. The techno-economic potential of renewable energy technologies (RETs) is substantial. However, it is not certain that economically viable RETs will be utilized since this is greatly influenced by social, institutional, and political factors. To move from activities that enhance the current fossil fuel-based lock-ins and create an environment that increases the chance of successful transfer and diffusion of RETs, the Sunshine Power Cities project was established in southern Taiwan in 2005. This project was initiated by the Bureau of Energy and the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Here, a detailed evaluation of the project is carried out by retrospectively analyzing whether or not it strengthened local renewable energy innovations to develop Sunshine Cities as part of the strategy to help their cities gain RET status and in the process construct shared national and city identities. This evaluation shows that this renewable energy (RE) program strengthens most key processes in an innovation system conducive to technology transfer.     

Mobilising community action towards a low-carbon future: Opportunities and challenges for local government in the UK

Over the last decade the important role that local authorities can play in catalyzing community action on climate change has been repeatedly emphasised by the UK Government. The paper examines this policy context and explores the options available to local authorities in terms of reaching and engaging their communities. The type of progressive response shown by some UK local authorities is illustrated with empirical evidence gathered through a study conducted in the London Borough of Islington focusing on their recently established ‘Green Living Centre’. The results confirm interest in this major council-led community initiative, with positive attitudes expressed by the majority of those questioned in terms of the advice and information available. However, it is also clear that many participants had preexisting pro-environmental attitudes and behavioural routines. Results from a broader sample of Islington residents indicate a substantial challenge in reaching the wider community, where enthusiasm for sustainability change and interest in this type of scheme were more mixed. The prospect for local government in addressing this challenge – and their ability to trigger and capitalize upon concepts of social change at the community level towards a lower carbon future – is discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Necessary but not sufficient: the role of energy efficiency in industrial sector low-carbon transformation

As the primary means for growth and development over the past two centuries, industry has played a central role in generating our current Anthropocene. The increasing impacts of climate change bring industry to the fore as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and as a potential manufacturer of transformational technologies and infrastructure. While energy efficiency improvements are driving industrial sector emissions and cost reductions, additional switching away from fossil fuels and capture of carbon emissions is needed for climate stabilization.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

Social perceptions about a technological innovation for fuelwood cooking: Case study in rural Mexico

The widespread use of traditional biomass fuels in open fires in developing countries brings about serious health effects, besides high fuelwood consumption. A technological innovation—i.e., improved cookstoves—reduce fuel consumption and address the health effects of indoor air pollution. Implementation projects have been conducted worldwide, but have frequently faced very low success rates. Different demographic and socio-economic factors have been analysed to explain low rates but there are almost no studies that try to understand, from the users’ perspective, the factors involved when choosing among different cooking technologies. Through a qualitative methodological approach we documented the adoption of improved cookstoves through the implementation programme of a Mexican NGO. Results showed that although the programme raised public awareness, the improved cookstoves did not reach the poorest sector. The socioeconomic level was found positively correlated with the adoption of the improved cookstoves, but neither the age nor the educational levels were. Payment of the stove did not seem to be an adoption factor. Differences among individual users were more significant than differences between communities. Finally as men are the principal fuelwood harvesters, they should be considered as an important group in diffusion programs.     

液体燃料射流破碎机理研究中的时间模式与空间模式

利用线性不稳定性理论分析了液体燃料射流在分别采用时间模式与空间模式两种方法下液体表面扰动波的波数、频率及最大扰动增长率之间的关系,讨论了两种模式下液体射流结构特征的差别。应用基于粘性液体射流射入气体介质中的物理模型,计算分析了 Ｒｅ 数、 Ｗｅ 数和密度比 Ｑ对时间模式与空间模式差值的影响,结果发现采用时间模式或空间模式并不改变液体射流各阶模式之间的相互关系, Ｗｅ 数和 Ｑ是影响时间模式与空间模式差值的主要因素,而 Ｒｅ 数影响不大。在一定条件下,时间模式与空间模式具有等效性。     

Spatial interaction models for biomass consumption in the United States

Five alternative spatial interaction patterns of biomass consumption in the United States in 2005 are compared using the spatial autoregressive model. The influences of geographical locations, biomass price and income on biomass consumption are translated into the spatial weight matrices of spatial autoregressive model. The results indicate that not only the geographical locations but also both the biomass price and the income significantly affect spatial interaction among biomass consumption in the United States. The results also show that spatial interaction among biomass consumption in the United States becomes weaker with the farther neighbor states. Spatial interaction among biomass consumption incurred by the income becomes stronger than that incurred by the biomass price. When the influences of both the biomass price and the income are combined together into the hybrid spatial autoregressive model, spatial interaction among biomass consumption is the strongest.     

The future role of photovoltaics: A learning curve versus portfolio perspective

The current cost disadvantage of photovoltaics (PV) risks to reduce its relevance in climate policy strategies. Depending on the used assumptions, electricity from PV can become competitive between 2015 and 2040. Cost competitiveness is, however, a conditional criterion and as an alternative to the learning curve perspective, the future role of PV in electricity production is assessed from a portfolio theory or Capital Asset Pricing Model perspective. In this analysis, the focus is on the input price risks. Fossil fuel price volatility can strongly reduce the financial return of conventional generating technologies. From a welfare perspective, energy planners should try to minimise this risk by adding risk-neutral or no-risk technologies to their portfolio. With an analysis for the year 2025, we illustrate how the addition of renewable capacity to an existing portfolio can lower total portfolio risk without a significant reduction of profitability. PV then emerges as an attractive technology, especially once the best locations for wind energy are already developed.     

System failure,innovation policy and patents: Fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway 1990–2002

The empirical focus of this article is technological innovation activities in the emerging field of fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway from 1990 to 2002. In this period, four comparatively large-scale research and development projects and a number of smaller projects aimed at development of fuel cells technology were undertaken, resulting in many inventions that were subsequently patented. Although this creativity may be considered an indication of success, only one of the projects became successful in an innovation perspective. All the large projects were initiated and funded for divergent political and economic reasons. An important reason in the late 1980s was the prospect of using Norway's abundant supply of natural gas in fuel cells for electric power generation. The large R&D projects that attempted to develop fuel cells based on natural gas as energy source failed. In contrast, the successful project was undertaken by military R&D, i.e. in a different system of innovation than the projects that failed. Analysis of these cases points to the importance of a systemic approach to innovations—and to policy making. One challenge for policy makers is to decide how they should promote this development which is crucial for the vision of a future “Hydrogen Economy”, i.e. what kind of policy incentives should be introduced to spur efficiency in technological development and diffusion. Theoretically, many options are available; however, understanding the innovation dynamics in this sector is fundamental for making choices. In this article, focus will be set on policy aspects using an innovation systemic approach to analyze development of fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway.     

The impact of EU policies on energy use in and the evolution of the UK built environment

Energy use in buildings is influenced by a variety of factors in complex ways. Historically, in the UK the efficiency of energy use in buildings has not been a major consideration in their design. Now policy concern with climate change is changing this, because buildings have come to be perceived as the locus of energy use with the highest cost-effective energy savings potential. In the UK, the energy efficiency of the building stock is rather low. The paper focuses largely on energy use in the UK's existing building stock and the two main European Union Directives which affect it: the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive and the Energy Services Directive. The Directives are complex, and there are a number of supporting programmes set up by the European Commission to aid their implementation. Even so, they have been implemented in differing ways in different European countries, and implementation remains patchy. The Directives have the potential to be a major influence on the evolution of the UK's built environment, but their effect will depend on the details of the Directives’ implementation and enforcement, many of which are not yet clear.     

Feed in or certificates,competition or complementarity? Combining a static efficiency and a dynamic innovation perspective on the greening of the energy industry

European policy on the greening of the energy industry has been characterised by a debate between proponents of two apparent polar opposites, feed in tariffs and certificate markets. Different European countries have chosen both mechanisms and, as a consequence, the European Union has maintained a fairly pluralist position, abstaining from stricter harmonisation.     

The role of hydrogen in the transition from a petroleum economy to a low-carbon society

A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. The paper focuses on the role of hydrogen in the transition, when present Norwegian petroleum export is gradually phased out. The study is in line with EU initiatives to secure cooperation opportunities with neighbouring countries to establish an international hydrogen market. Three analytical perspectives are combined. The first uses energy models to investigate the role of hydrogen in an energy and power market perspective, without considering hydrogen export. The second, uses an economic equilibrium model to examine the potential role of hydrogen export in value creation. The third analysis is a socio-technical case study on the drivers and barriers for hydrogen production in Norway. Main conclusions are that access to renewable power and hydrogen are prerequisites for decarbonization of transport and industrial sectors in Norway, and that hydrogen is a key to maintain a high level of economic activity. Structural changes in the economy, impacts of new technologies, and key enablers and barriers in this transition are discussed.