An econometric study of CO2 emissions,energy consumption,income and foreign trade in Turkey

This study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption, income, and foreign trade in the case of Turkey using the time-series data for the period 1960–2005. This research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long-run relationships between the variables. In the case of first form of long-run relationship, carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption, income and foreign trade. In the case of second long-run relationship, income is determined by carbon emissions, energy consumption and foreign trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. The long-run relationship of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability. The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in Turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade. Moreover, there exists a stable carbon emissions function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.     

Uncertain long-run emissions targets,CO2 price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO₂ emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO₂ price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO₂ policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO₂ emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a “hard cap” or a “soft cap”. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories—with two branches after 2020—for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO₂ emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO₂ emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.     

CCS: A future CO2 mitigation option for Germany?—A bottom-up approach

The role that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies could play within the framework of an overall CO₂ mitigation strategy is examined in the form of scenarios up to 2030 with the example of Germany. As the calculations show, the use of CCS can represent an interesting mitigation option in view of stringent CO₂ reduction goals. The scenarios, performed with the aid of the IKARUS optimization model, however, also show that according to cost-efficiency criteria a large number of measures would have to be taken covering all energy sectors. CCS can at best represent one element in an overall strategy. The model results show that a mitigation goal for 2030 corresponding to a 35% reduction of CO₂ as compared to 1990 is necessary to trigger a significant contribution of CCS. As an alternative to a CO₂ restriction, we also calculated reduction scenarios based on CO₂ penalties. These scenarios showed that a penalty price of approximately 30 €/tCO₂ is necessary before CCS can be included in the model.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO₂ emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO₂ emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO₂ capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed.     

Energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with their CO2 equivalents

Various types of energy sources are used in the residential and industrial sectors. Choosing the type of sources is important. When an energy source is selected, its CO₂ equivalent and energy and exergy prices must be known for a sustainable future and for establishing energy policies. These prices are based on their energy values. Exergy analysis has been recently applied to a wide range of energy-related systems. Thus, obtaining the exergy values has become more meaningful for long-term planning. In this study, energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with CO₂ equivalents are calculated and compared for residential and industrial applications in Turkey. Energy sources considered include coal, diesel oil, electricity, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, heat pumps and geothermal, and their prices were obtained over a period of 18 months, from January 2008 to June 2009. For the residential and industrial sectors, minimum energy and exergy prices were found for ground source heat pumps, while maximum energy and exergy prices belong to LPG for both sectors.     

Directed technical change and the adoption of CO2 abatement technology: The case of CO2 capture and storage

This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of combining traditional environmental policy, such as CO₂-trading schemes, and technology policy that has aims of reducing the cost and speeding the adoption of CO₂ abatement technology. For this purpose, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that captures empirical links between CO₂ emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We specify CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) as a discrete CO₂ abatement technology. We find that combining CO₂-trading schemes with an adoption subsidy is the most effective instrument to induce adoption of the CCS technology. Such a subsidy directly improves the competitiveness of the CCS technology by compensating for its markup over the cost of conventional electricity. Yet, introducing R&D subsidies throughout the entire economy leads to faster adoption of the CCS technology as well and in addition can be cost-effective in achieving the abatement target.     

Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China

This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975–2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO₂ emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO₂ emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO₂ emissions.     

Analysis of energy service systems in urban areas and their CO2 mitigations and economic impacts

Three kinds of energy service system were examined as alternative energy systems in urban areas. A comparison of these energy systems was performed by finding Pareto optimum solutions for a multi-objective model. The model had two objective functions: CO₂ emission and cost to consumer. Various energy pricings were provided in the model as variables.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications

This study evaluates the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.     

China’s regional CO2 emissions: Characteristics,inter-regional transfer and emission reduction policies

This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s regional CO₂ emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009. The results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern, central and western areas, regional elasticities of per capita GDP and energy intensity on CO₂ emissions, which reflect the regional differences in economic development, economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission. Energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity, but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity. The inverse distribution of energy production and consumption, regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter-regional CO₂ emission transfer embodied in the power transmission. The calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003, from eastern area to the central and western areas, especially energy production provinces in central area, which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity. The regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces.     

Role of CO2 in the CH4 oxidation and H2 formation during fuel-rich combustion in O2/CO2 environments

The effect of CO₂ reactivity on CH₄ oxidation and H₂ formation in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion where the concentrations of reactants were high was studied by a CH₄ flat flame experiment, detailed chemical analysis, and a pulverized coal combustion experiment. In the CH₄ flat flame experiment, the residual CH₄ and formed H₂ in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion were significantly lower than those formed in air combustion, whereas the amount of CO formed in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion was noticeably higher than that in air. In addition to this experiment, calculations were performed using CHEMKIN-PRO. They generally agreed with the experimental results and showed that CO₂ reactivity, mainly expressed by the reaction CO₂ + H → CO + OH (R1), caused the differences between air and O₂/CO₂ combustion under fuel-rich condition. R1 was able to advance without oxygen. And, OH radicals were more active than H radicals in the hydrocarbon oxidation in the specific temperature range. It was shown that the role of CO₂ was to advance CH₄ oxidation during fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion. Under fuel-rich combustion, H₂ was mainly produced when the hydrocarbon reacted with H radicals. However, the hydrocarbon also reacted with the OH radicals, leading to H₂O production. In fact, these hydrocarbon reactions were competitive. With increasing H/OH ratio, H₂ formed more easily; however, CO₂ reactivity reduced the H/OH ratio by converting H to OH. Moreover, the OH radicals reacted with H₂, whereas the H radicals did not reduce H₂. It was shown that OH radicals formed by CO₂ reactivity were not suitable for H₂ formation. As for pulverized coal combustion, the tendencies of CH₄, CO, and H₂ formation in pulverized coal combustion were almost the same as those in the CH₄ flat flame.     

The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission: An empirical analysis of China's residents

Based on the application of a Consumer Lifestyle Approach (CLA), this paper quantifies the direct and indirect impact of lifestyle of urban and rural residents on China's energy use and the related CO₂ emissions during the period 1999–2002. The results show that approximately 26 per cent of total energy consumption and 30 per cent of CO₂ emission every year are a consequence of residents’ lifestyles, and the economic activities to support these demands. For urban residents the indirect impact on energy consumption is 2.44 times greater than the direct impact. Residence; home energy use; food; and education, cultural and recreation services are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. For rural residents, the direct impact on energy consumption is 1.86 times that of the indirect, and home energy use; food; education, and cultural recreation services; and personal travel are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. This paper provides quantitative evidence for energy conservation and environmental protection focused policies. China's security for energy supply is singled out as a serious issue for government policy-makers, and we suggest that government should harmonize the relationships between stakeholders to determine rational strategies.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Tackling CO2 reduction in India through use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS): Prospects and challenges

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is not currently a priority for the Government of India (GOI) because, whilst a signatory to the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, there are no existing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and most commentators do not envisage compulsory targets for India in the post-2012 phase. The overwhelming priority for the GOI is to sustain a high level of economic growth (8%+) and provision of secure, reliable energy (especially electricity) is one of the widely recognised bottlenecks in maintaining a high growth rate. In such a supply-starved context, it is not easy to envisage adoption of CCS—which increases overall generation capacity and demand for coal without increasing actual electricity supply—as being acceptable. Anything which increases costs—even slightly—is very unlikely to happen, unless it is fully paid for by the international community. The majority viewpoint of the industry and GOI interviewees towards CCS appears to be that it is a frontier technology, which needs to be developed further in the Annex-1 countries to bring down the cost through RD&D and deployment. More RD&D is required to assess in further detail the potential for CO₂ storage in geological reservoirs in India and the international community has an important role to play in cultivating such research.     

Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991–2006

As the country with the second largest emitter of energy-related CO₂ gas, China experienced a dramatic decline in CO₂ emission intensity from 1991 to 2000, but since then the rate of decline slowed and CO₂ emission intensity actually increased in 2003. In this paper, the complete decomposition method developed by Sun is used to analyze the nature of the factors that influence the changes in energy-related CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity during the period 1991–2006. We find that: (1) energy intensity effect is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity, (2) economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increased CO₂ emission, and (3) economic structure and CO₂ emission coefficient effects are found to contribute little to the changes in CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity, which actually increased CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity over the period 1991–2006 except for several years.     

Impact of the economic recession on the European power sector’s CO2 emissions

This paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on CO₂ emissions in the European power sector, during the years 2008 and 2009. Three main determinants of the power sector’s emissions are identified: the demand for electricity, the CO₂ price, and fuel prices. A counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these, i.e., what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession. A simulation model of the European power sector is then employed, comparing a historical reference simulation (taking the parameters as actually occurred) with the counterfactual scenarios. The lower electricity demand (due to the recession) is shown to have by far the largest impact, accounting for an emission reduction of about 175 Mton. The lower CO₂ price (due to the recession) resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30 Mton. The impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve; an indicative reduction of about 17 Mton is obtained, mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009. The simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150 Mton in the European power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession.     

Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia

This paper applies the co-integration technique and causality test to examine the dynamic relationships between pollutant emissions, energy use, and real output during the period between 1990 and 2007 for Russia. The empirical results show that in the long-run equilibrium, emissions appear to be energy use elastic and output inelastic. This elasticity suggests high energy use responsiveness to changes in emissions. The output exhibits a negative significant impact on emissions and does not support EKC hypothesis. These indicate that both economic growth and energy conservation policies can reduce emissions and no negative impact on economic development. The causality results indicate that there is a bidirectional strong Granger-causality running between output, energy use and emissions, and whenever a shock occurs in the system, each variable makes a short-run adjustment to restore the long-run equilibrium. The average speed of adjustment is as low as just over 0.26 years. Hence, in order to reduce emissions, the best environmental policy is to increase infrastructure investment to improve energy efficiency, and to step up energy conservation policies to reduce any unnecessary waste of energy. That is, energy conservation is expected to improve energy efficiency, thereby promoting economic growth.     

Exergy analysis and CO2 emission evaluation for steam methane reforming

This paper investigates the industrial production of hydrogen through steam methane reforming (SMR) from both exergy efficiency and CO₂ emission aspects. An SMR model is constructed based on a practical flow diagram including desulfurizer, furnace, separation unit and heat exchangers. The influence of reformer temperature (Tr) and steam to carbon (S/C) ratio is analyzed to optimize exergy efficiency and CO₂ emission. A clear correlation is obtained between exergy efficiency and CO₂ emission. Results also show optimal S/C ratio decreases with Tr. An exergy load distribution analysis which evaluates interactions between the system and its subsystems with parameter variations is employed to find promising directions for efficiency improvement. Results show that the greatest improvement lies in increasing efficiency of furnace without increasing its relative exergy load. Integration of oxygen-enriched combustion (OEC) with SMR is also evaluated. The integration of OEC can increase the system efficiency greatly when the reformer operates above critical point, while in other cases the system efficiency may decrease.     

Light vehicle energy efficiency programs and their impact on Brazilian CO2 emissions

This paper analyses the impact of an energy efficiency program for light vehicles in Brazil on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Several energy efficiency programs for light vehicles around the world are reviewed. The cases of Japan and Europe were selected for presentation here given their status as current and future world leaders in the control of passenger vehicle fuel consumption. The launching of the National Climate Change Plan and the pressure on the Brazilian car industry due to the world financial crisis make it a good time for the Brazilian government to implement such a program, and its various benefits are highlighted in this study. Three scenarios are established for Brazil covering the 2000–2030 period: the first with no efficiency goals, the second with the Japanese goals applied with a 10 years delay, and the third, with the Japanese goals applied with no delay. The consequences of a vehicular efficiency program and its middle and long-term effects on the consumption of energy and the CO₂ emissions are quantified and discussed. The simulation results indicate that efficiency goals may make an important contribution to reducing vehicular emissions and fuel consumption in Brazil, compared to a baseline scenario.     

Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries

This study examines the impact of oil consumption on the economic growth of the MENA countries during the period 1980–2009. The panel model is employed in this study. Based on the cointegration test results, it was found that CO₂ emission, and oil consumption has a long run relationship with economic growth. Moreover, there is also a bi-directional Granger causality between oil consumption, CO₂ emission and economic growth in both the short run and the long run. The results of this study show clearly that oil consumption plays an important role in the economic growth of the MENA countries.