南宁市水资源生态足迹动态分析

从水资源量供需平衡的角度出发,判别城市发展与自然水系统的可持续性。基于生态足迹理论,构建了水生态足迹与水生态承载力模型,并以广西南宁市为例,对2004-2013年的水资源可持续程度进行定量分析。结果发现：（1）南宁市历年水资源用量处于盈余状态;（2）淡水资源生态足迹所占比例较大,且与人口增长和经济发展有密切关系;（3）万元GDP生态曲线的不断降低表明南宁市水资源利用效率逐步提高。研究结果表明,南宁市水资源符合可持续利用的原则。     

水资源行为的二氧化碳排放当量分析方法及应用

在梳理水资源行为与“双碳”目标关联的基础上，阐述水资源行为对“双碳”目标的作用机理及度量存在的 问题；从水资源开发、配置、利用、保护 4 个维度，提出水资源行为（water?resource?behavior，WRB）的二氧化碳排放 当量分析（carbon?dioxide?emission?equivalent?analysis，CEEA）方法，构建二氧化碳排放当量分析函数表（function table?of?carbon?dioxide?emission?equivalent?analysis，FT-CEEA），包括 16 种水资源行为的二氧化碳排放当量（carbon dioxide?emission?equivalent，CEE）计算公式，为水资源领域的二氧化碳排放和吸收效应核算提供一个参考“标尺”， 以河南省为例，开展 CEEA 方法的应用研究。结果表明：2020 年河南省水资源行为的二氧化碳排放当量为 2?888.61 万 t，水资源利用行为（water?resource?utilization?behavior，WRUB）是主要贡献者；水资源开发行为（water resource?development?behavior，WRDB）、水资源配置行为（water?resource?allocation?behavior，WRAB）及水资源利用 行为（WRUB）产生二氧化碳排放效应，水资源保护行为（water?resource?protection?behavior，WRPB）产生二氧化碳吸 收效应，4 种 WRB 的 CEE 分别为 1?187.54 万、564.99 万、1?448.38 万、?312.30 万 t。研究成果可为后续水资源领 域的二氧化碳排放当量核算提供参考。     

基于熵值法和层次分析法的广东省水资源安全评价及影响因素分析

水资源安全综合评价对水资源管理与规划具有重要意义。通过熵值法和层次分析法构建了广东省水资源安全评价体系,综合分析了2007-2016年广东省水资源安全状况。结果表明:2007-2016年,广东省水资源安全指数始终介于0. 4～0. 6之间,属于一般安全等级,水资源和社会经济安全指数稳步提升,但水生态安全指数呈现下降趋势;广东省水资源安全空间分异明显,珠三角核心区、粤东的潮汕地区及粤西的湛江市水资源安全等级较低,珠三角核心区水生态指数较低,社会经济安全指数由珠三角核心区向外围逐步递减;广东省水资源安全影响因素存在区域差异,珠三角地区水资源安全的优势因素为社会经济,劣势因素为水生态环境,而粤东、粤西及粤北地区的优势因素为水资源量与水生态环境,劣势因素为社会经济。整体来看,广东省水资源安全状况与区域经济发展程度不匹配,经济相对发达的珠三角核心区、粤东和粤西沿海地区的水资源安全形势较为严峻。研究结果以期为广东省及其各地市水资源规划和管理提供参考。     

基于DPSIR-模糊集对评价模型的湖北省水资源评价

为合理评价湖北省水资源态势,在系统考虑湖北省水资源特点和实际情况的基础上,同时遵循代表性、科学性、可操作性和系统性等指标体系构建原则,构建了基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)概念框架的湖北省水资源评价指标体系,并将熵权法与模糊集对分析法相结合,建立了水资源评价模型,对湖北省2008-2016年水资源状态进行了定量评价。研究结果表明:(1)2008-2016年湖北省水资源状态呈现出波动式升高的趋势,研究结果表明近9年间湖北省的水资源状态良好;(2)从水资源DPSIR评价结果可以看出,研究时段内水资源影响和水资源响应是影响湖北省水资源状况的最重要因素。     

面向水资源安全的绿洲受水区水资源配置方案评价

水资源安全问题已成为制约克拉玛依市经济发展的重要因素。通过调查克拉玛依市水资源开发利用情况,从空间配置、时间配置、用水配置、水源配置等方面入手,设计两个步骤来解决:(1)选取12个用水指标构建水资源安全评价体系,应用层次分析法构造判断矩阵,并确定各指标因子的权重;(2)拟定各类需水方案、供水方案组合叠加生成调度运行方案,形成水资源配置方案集,并设置各方案的水资源安全评价指标,再运用层次分析法优选WRMM模型配置结果,然后对克拉玛依市2011年水资源安全状况进行评价与分析。结果表明,基于水资源安全评价指标的最佳水资源配置方案8,供水保证率达到100%,水资源开发利用率为57%,灌溉水综合利用系数为0.75,为提高克拉玛依市水资源利用率、保障区域用水安全提供科学依据。     

基于GLDAS-NOAH的长江流域蓝绿水资源时空变化特征

基于GLDAS-Noah水文模型,模拟长江流域蓝绿水资源量,并揭示其时空变化特征。结果表明:2000—2019年长江流域多年平均蓝水资源和绿水资源分别为420.24 mm和686.95 mm,绿水资源约是蓝水资源的1.62倍。近20 a来长江流域蓝水资源、绿水资源和绿水系数呈不显著增加趋势,2000—2019年蓝水资源与绿水资源变化速率分别为3.26 mm/a 和2.27 mm/a。从年内分配上看,蓝绿水资源在7—8月份较多,占全年的29%~32%;在1 —2月份较少,占全年的5%~6%。从空间分布来看,蓝水资源呈现东南高西北低的分布格局,绿水资源呈现东高西低的分布格局,而绿水系数呈现西北高东南低的分布格局。科学全面评价蓝绿水资源可以为优化水资源利用模式、提高水资源利用效率提供科学依据。     

宝鸡市水资源脆弱性评价

以宝鸡市为研究区域,针对复杂的人水关系,对1999-2015年间水资源脆弱性进行整体评价,并预估未来趋势,找到影响宝鸡市水资源脆弱性的主导因子,为降低水资源脆弱性提供合理的解决方案。以DPSIR模型为基础,选取出19个能够反映出宝鸡市水资源脆性的指标,依靠层次分析法与熵值法主客观组合赋权的优势,结合模糊综合评价法对各项指标进行综合得分,借助S型曲线对水资源脆弱性与指标综合得分之间建立非线性函数关系,由此对17a间水资源脆弱性进行等级划分。结果表明:宝鸡市水资源整体呈严重脆弱(Ⅳ级),但整体及未来下降趋势明显,降水与工业重复用水率为其主导因子,改善水资源管理模式是水资源脆弱性下降的重要举措。     

Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and Sensitivity Analysis for Shadow Price of Water Resource in China

A novel dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on National Water Resource Input Holding Output Table is proposed to calculate the Shadow Price of water resource in China. Unlike previous approaches, the dynamic Shadow Price of water resource is largely based on the scarcity extent and can reflect the marginal long-term value in the balanced growth path of China. Firstly, the basic concepts of dynamic Input Output analysis and Turnpike Theory are reviewed. Then, Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) is elaborated to calculate the Shadow Price, including the definition and computer-based algorithm. Furthermore, Shadow Price of water resource in China from 1949 to 2050 is calculated based on the DCGE. Also the sensitivity analysis of the DCGE for Shadow Price of water resource in China is presented. Dynamic Shadow Price of water resource has two meanings for China government: (1) Project evaluation. Every large-scale project in China must have national economic evaluation and the dynamic Shadow Price is prerequisite for national economic evaluation. (2) Market price of water resource. A lesson from this paper is that Shadow Price of water resource in domestic market of China should be rewritten according to the dynamic Shadow Price. In addition, the parallel computations approach could also be used to solve these problems in different countries or for different natural resources. This work was supported in part by NSFC (No. 70472074), NSFC (No. 70131002), NSFC (No. 60474063) and in part by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.     

基于模糊AHP法定权的水资源价值灰色评价模型及其应用

基于模糊系统理论,采用模糊层次分析(AHP)法确定各评价指标权重,有效地解决了水资源价值评价中复杂的权重确定问题。通过对水资源价值的构成及灰色聚类分析,建立基于模糊AHP法定权的水资源价值灰色评价模型,并运用该模型对兰州市水资源价值进行了综合评价。     

基于有序联系度熵的水资源空间均衡综合评价方法

实现水资源空间均衡目标是当前我国水资源集成化管理实践的重要思路。为有效描述水资源空间均衡不同子系统及均衡指标之间的关系结构特征及整体均衡态势,提出从水资源承载压力、支撑力及调控力三大子系统之间的作用关系角度出发,采用集对分析三元联系数刻画不同均衡指标与相应承载等级之间的单指标联系属性,利用有序度熵与三元联系数耦合模型表征水资源空间均衡系统整体均衡态势及其变化趋势,并依据减法集对势诊断识别制约水资源空间均衡态势变化的关键影响因素,最终提出了基于有序联系度熵的水资源空间均衡综合评价方法（OCDE）。上述方法在安徽省不同地市2009-2018年水资源空间均衡综合评价的应用结果表明：皖南地区水资源空间均衡程度最高,皖中次之,皖北最差,全省2009-2018年水资源空间均衡系统整体均衡态势呈现逐渐改善的趋势,且人均水资源量和产水模数是制约全省及不同地市水资源空间均衡系统均衡态势变化最主要的负向驱动因素。上述计算结果与安徽省历史年份经济社会发展统计数据基本一致,表明构建的水资源空间均衡综合评价模型计算结果合理有效,可为制定和实施区域水资源空间均衡措施及方案提供科学有效的决策依据。     

Water Resources Allocation in Transboundary River Basins Based on a Game Model Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors

Dynamic transboundary water resources allocation based on inflow prediction results is an important task for water resources management in river basins. This paper takes the watershed management agency as the leader and the associated area as the follower, and proposes a two-level asymmetric Nash-Harsanyi Leader-Follower game model considering inflow forecasting errors. In the proposed model, the Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the uncertainty of various stakeholder allocation results and the response regularity to the total water resource uncertainty. The quantitative relationship between the allocation results of stakeholders and the mean and standard deviation of total water resource uncertainty is subsequently established. The Huaihe River basin in China is selected as a case study. The results show the following: (1) the water allocated to the watershed management agency and three provinces has a normal distribution when the inflow forecasting error obeys the normal distribution; (2) the sum of the mean of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the mean of the forecast water resource and the sum of the standard deviations of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the standard deviation of the forecast water resource; (3) the mean and standard deviation of the allocation results have a good linear relationship with the mean and standard deviation of forecast water resource; (4) the distribution parameters of the stakeholder allocation results can be directly derived from the distribution parameters of the forecast information, thus aiding the stakeholders in making decisions and improving the practical value of the method.

     

An Informetric Profile of Water Resources Management Literatures

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the global performance and to assess the current trends in research of water resource management. The methods of informetric analysis were used to survey water resource management related articles in the Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) during the past decades. The publication records, subjects, journals, countries, institutes, authors, citations and keywords were analyzed respectively for each paper. The number of papers related to water resource management in 2012 was approximately 8 times that of the year 2000 and hundreds of times more than early 1990s. Water resource management related papers were distributed unevenly by countries. The USA, P.R. China, Australia and UK were the top contributing countries, also present normalized by dividing with population that published most SCI papers as well as SSCI papers. The largest water resource management research center is located in the USA according to the number of publications and citations, with P.R. China becoming more proficient in water resource management according to the data from country and institute. In addition, the quality of papers produced by developed countries is more advanced than developing countries. All these efforts contributed to the indication in trends of water resource management research on a global scale. Earlier water resource management research appeared and was originally concentrated on engineering, irrigation and geography. Issues gradually transferred to management, economics and regime recently.     

南水北调中线供水区水资源特性分析

南水北调中线供水区的工农业生产在我国占有重要地位，唯水资源不足制约工农业的发展，本文根据供水区各省（市）提供的水资源评价资料，对中线供水区水资源量及其时空分布规律进行了分析评价，在此基础上，对供水区主要水资源性和问题进行了分析，结果表明，中线供水区水资源较为匮乏，急需从外流域引水补源。     

Extension of Fuzzy Delphi AHP Based on Interval-Valued Fuzzy Sets and its Application in Water Resource Rating Problems

Water resource management problems are complex by nature and are often accompanied by many uncertainties, requiring suitable decision-making tools to solve. If decision makers cannot agree on a method of defining linguistic variables based on the fuzzy sets, favorable results and more accurate modeling can be achieved by using interval-valued fuzzy sets (IVFSs), which provide an additional degree of freedom to represent the uncertainty and fuzziness of the real world. Accordingly, this study is aimed to extend a fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on IVFSs (Interval-Valued Fuzzy Delphi AHP) and its application to large-scale rating problems related to water resource management. The proposed method is subsequently applied to select an optimal strategy for the rural water supply of Nohoor Village in northeast Iran, as a case study and actual water resource rating problem. According to sensitivity analyses of the results and a comparison of the results with a real project, the proposed method offers good outcomes for water resource rating problems.     

莱芜市水环境质量保障措施

莱芜市根据水资源的需求状况，探讨加强水资源统一调度，实现水资源的智能化管理，充分挖掘蓄水工程的潜力，增大地表水源，建设节水型社会，加强农村的水环境控制，提高污、废水的利用程度，优化地下水资源，实现地下水可持续开采等措施，转变治水观念，走入水和谐之路，保障水环境的质量。     

水资源价格与可持续发展

制定水资源价格是实现水资源优化配置，维持持续发展的关键。本文阐述了制定水资源价格的意义；水资源价格与水商品价格的区别并提出了制定水资源价格的对策。     

Two-Stage Interval-Parameter Stochastic Programming Model Based on Adaptive Water Resource Management

Water resource planning is often associated with system complexities and uncertainties, such as issues of precipitation randomness and complex the complexity of human social activities. In this study, a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic programming (TISP) model in conjunction with an adaptive water resource management (AWRM) model was applied. Compared to other optimization models, AWRM can address interactions between different water users and account for regional water exchange processes, and TISP models overcome the uncertainties of a water resource system by introducing interval-parameter and probability distribution methods. Reasonable solutions obtained by applying these models to a multi-water-resource, multi-region case show that in AWRM models, water can flow from a region of low efficiency to a region of high efficiency, improving water use efficiency. Under conditions of extreme scarcity, water can flow in the opposite direction thus ensuring regional minimum water requirements, enhancing system stability and reducing the probability of system paralysis. In policy making, optimistic water policies correspond to higher incomes but may be subject to higher risks of system failure. Alternatively, conservative policies are associated with a lower risk of system failure but easily waste water resources.     

阜蒙县水资源开发利用潜力及效果

根据阜蒙县水资源分布特点、区域水资源状况,进行了水资源现状平衡分析及水资源开发利用潜力预测,提出了资源利用的途径。     

云南省区域水资源与社会经济协调发展研究

根据2012年云南省各区域水资源、社会经济发展及城市环境的基础数据,构建"水资源-社会-经济-环境"评价指标体系,以综合指数法分析研究区域水资源与社会经济发展的协调性,旨在为区域水资源的可持续利用和水生态文明建设提供依据。     

流域水资源评价广义指标体系研究

 为全面分析流域水资源承载能力,根据影响水资源承载力的因素,采用系统方法,提出了流域水资源评价广义指标体系,重点分析了经济、环境和社会方面指标的建立及对流域水资源评价的作用,初步提出流域水资源评价核心指标体系。结合长江流域上、中、下游典型地区,讨论采用统一的指标评价流域内不同地区经济、环境和社会发展与水资源的关系。分析表明,采用广义指标评价流域水资源能更好地反映水资源可持续利用的状况。