基于SDGs的广东省水资源可持续性评价

围绕SDGs水资源相关目标,构建了本土化水资源综合可持续性评价指标体系,采用熵权法对广东省及其21个地级市水资源可持续发展水平进行了综合评价,并分析了广东省水资源可持续性的现状及历史演变。研究结果表明：2010—2019年广东省水资源综合可持续性缓慢提升,可持续性时空差异、目标差异均十分明显,珠三角核心区水资源综合可持续性较高,粤东及粤西地区较低;生态环境系统对可持续性支撑度最高,其次为水资源系统与效率系统,公平系统支撑度最低;供水、蓄水能力的改善及水资源利用效率的不断提升促进了水资源综合可持续性的提升,水生态退化、水环境恶化、水资源空间失衡等因素是水资源综合可持续发展的最主要限制因素;用水效率提升目标(SDGs6.4)可持续性最高,水质改善目标(SDGs6.3)、水生态恢复目标(SDGs6.6)及淡水生态系统保护目标(SDGs14.1)可持续性明显落后,水资源综合管理能力提升目标(SDGs6.5)及陆地生态环境修复目标(SDGs15.1)可持续性尚可,水资源综合可持续性呈现效率优势与“水质-污染-水生态”劣势并存的态势。     

基于组合赋权—云模型的珠江三角洲水资源可持续性动态评价

为综合评价区域水资源可持续性状况,构建基于水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统的区域水资源可持续性评价体系,采用投影寻踪模型和云模型合理确定各指标的综合权重,引入正态云模型确定指标隶属度,建立基于组合赋权-云模型的区域水资源可持续性评价模型对珠江三角洲9座城市的水资源可持续性状况进行动态评价。结果表明：2007-2020年珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况整体呈上升趋势,到2020年已处于较好水平;区域内部水资源可持续状况呈现东部城市优于西部城市、南部近海岸城市优于远海岸城市的空间分布格局;各子系统之间可持续性等级不和谐,生态环境子系统发展水平较好,水资源子系统、社会经济子系统是造成珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况存在空间差异的主要因素。     

Performance Indexes Analysis of the Reservoir-Hydropower Plant System Affected by Climate Change

Assessing the effects of climate change phenomenon on the natural resources, especially available water resources, considering the existing constraints and planning to reduce its adverse effects, requires continuous monitoring and quantification of the adverse effects, so that policymakers can analyze the performance of any system in different conditions clearly and explicitly. The most important objectives of the present research including: (1) calculating the sustainability index for each demand node based on the characteristics of its water supply individually and also calculating the sustainability index of the whole water supply system, (2) investigation the compatible of changes trend among various reservoir performance indexes and (3) evaluation the changes in performance reservoir indexes in the future time period compared to the baseline tie period under three Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for all water demand nodes and the entire water supply system. To this end, first, climatic parameters data affecting on the water resources such as temperature and precipitation were gathered in the baseline period (1977–2001) and the climatic scenarios were generated for the future period (2016–2040) using the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Then, the irrigation demand changes of the agricultural products with the Cropwat model and the value of inflow to the reservoir with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model were calculated under the climate change effects. In the next step, the climate change effects on the water supply and demand were simulated using Water Evaluation and Planning model (WEAP), and its results were extracted so as the water management indexes. The results show that the temperature will increase in the future period under all three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to the baseline period, while precipitation will decrease under the RCP2.6 scenario but will increases under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Under the trend of changing in temperature and rainfall, the irrigation demand in the agricultural sector in all scenarios will increase compared to the baseline period. However, the inflow of reservoir will decrease under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios and will increases under RCP8.5 scenario. Evaluation of WEAP modeling results shows that the sustainability index of the entire Marun water-energy system will decrease in the future period compared to the baseline period under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by 13, 10 and 8%, respectively. The decrease in the system sustainability index shows that in the absence of early planning, the Marun water-energy supply system will face several challenges for meeting the increasing demand of water in different consumer sectors in the coming years.

     

基于云模型的滨海小流域水生态文明评价

针对滨海小流域完整的水系特征及其洪旱灾害频繁、水生态、水环境问题突出的特点,构建了函括防洪安全、供水安全、水环境、水生态、水管理、水文化6个方面、29个单项指标的滨海小流域水生态文明综合评价指标体系,提出了基于云模型的滨海小流域水生态文明综合评价方法。利用该方法对翔鹤潭江流域进行水生态文明现状综合评价,结果表明该方法能够有效甄别滨海小流域水生态文明建设中存在的突出问题。     

面向水资源安全的绿洲受水区水资源配置方案评价

水资源安全问题已成为制约克拉玛依市经济发展的重要因素。通过调查克拉玛依市水资源开发利用情况,从空间配置、时间配置、用水配置、水源配置等方面入手,设计两个步骤来解决:(1)选取12个用水指标构建水资源安全评价体系,应用层次分析法构造判断矩阵,并确定各指标因子的权重;(2)拟定各类需水方案、供水方案组合叠加生成调度运行方案,形成水资源配置方案集,并设置各方案的水资源安全评价指标,再运用层次分析法优选WRMM模型配置结果,然后对克拉玛依市2011年水资源安全状况进行评价与分析。结果表明,基于水资源安全评价指标的最佳水资源配置方案8,供水保证率达到100%,水资源开发利用率为57%,灌溉水综合利用系数为0.75,为提高克拉玛依市水资源利用率、保障区域用水安全提供科学依据。     

Flavia Rocha Loures and Alistair Rieu-Clarke (eds), The UN Watercourses Convention in force: strengthening international law for transboundary water management

Abstract

The MODSIM 8.0 decision support system (DSS) for integrated river basin management (IRBM) has been adapted from a prior appropriation rights-based system to one found in Korea and in much of Asia where water deficits are shared among water use sectors, taking into account priorities established by water policy and institutional frameworks. The Korean version called KModSim is applied to the Geum River basin for evaluation of long-term sustainability of existing and new water infrastructure and facilities under integrated, basin-wide water resources management. KModSim is calibrated to the physical and hydrologic characteristics of the basin, as well as to operational and administrative water allocation policies for municipal and industrial water supply, irrigation, hydropower, transbasin diversions, and low-flow augmentation for environmental purposes. Conditional reservoir operational rules that adapt to changing river basin hydrologic conditions are developed from an implicit stochastic optimization algorithm and incorporated using the extensive user-customization capabilities of KModSim. Results demonstrate that decision guidance under KModSim enhances beneficial water uses in the Geum River system through fully integrated, basin-wide management.     

Indicators and a Neuro-Fuzzy Based Model for the Evaluation of Water Supply Sustainability

In the field of water management, the evaluation of sustainability has no universal methodological approach nor any consensus regarding the definitions of sustainability or sustainable development. There is an essential need therefore for a precise definition of sustainability in different water management fields. This paper deals with the sustainability of one part of urban water management, namely a water supply. A precise definition of a sustainable water supply system is given, together with a methodological framework that quantifies the degree of water supply sustainability. The proposed framework relies on the proposed quasi-strong sustainability concept, its components (dimensions), their particular relationships and corresponding indicators representing individual processes in the water supply system and utility. The processing of indicators is performed through a joint fuzzy logic/neural network (ANFIS) model. In order to evaluate each sustainability component, separate ANFIS models were created whose results were aggregated into a single result (sustainability index). According to the presented framework, sustainability is evaluated for 17 public water supply systems/utilities in Croatia.     

基于AHP的三亚市初始水权分配

初始水权的确定是实现水权市场化的必由之路。在深入了解三亚市水资源特点的基础上,结合当地水资源用水现状,利用层次分析法,遵循有效性、公平性和可持续性原则,权衡各项因素的影响,选取具有代表性的10项指标,构建了三亚市初始水权分配结构体系,实现了对三亚市初始水权的界定,得到与现状分水比例比较一致的结果。     

河南省典型枯水年水资源脆弱性评价及贡献因子识别

水资源脆弱性评价是水安全的重要度量方式,水资源安全是区域可持续发展的基础。以河南省18个市区为研究单元,从自然条件、社会经济、供用耗水等3个子系统选取指标建立评价体系,运用熵权法、线性加权法求解其典型枯水年水资源脆弱性,从城市、区域、全省角度分析水资源子系统指数、脆弱性指数,并采用贡献度模型识别了水资源脆弱性主要贡献因子,以期为河南省水资源管理提供科学依据。结果表明:（1）整体上看,3个子系统水资源脆弱性指数大小排序为自然条件>供用耗水>社会经济;城市和区域的水资源子系统指数、脆弱性指数存在一定的差异,且有自西南向东北逐渐增大的趋势;全省水资源为Ⅲ级中等脆弱性。（2）18个市区及全省水资源脆弱性3个子系统贡献度排序为自然条件>供用耗水>社会经济;水资源脆弱性的主要贡献因子集中在自然条件子系统的4个指标。此外,社会经济子系统中的亩均化肥折纯量和供用耗水子系统中的人均综合用水量、亩均灌溉用水量也是主要贡献因子。最后,提出“多渠道供水,提高供水侧能力”“合理扩张城镇、优化人口经济结构,提高城市水平”“提高用水效率,节约用水”的差异化“降脆”策略,以实现水资源可持续发展。     

汉江流域用水总量控制指标实施方法研究

汉江流域为我国实行最严格水资源管理体制的试点流域,对其水资源供需状况进行研究,探讨用水总量控制的实施方法,有着十分重大的指导意义。以汉江流域水资源公报为依据,首先建立了汉江流域用水总量控制评价指标体系,然后,通过对流域各地区水资源供需形势、用水效率、与发达国家节水水平的比较,明确了汉江流域目前的用水水平、各地区节约用水的差距、与世界先进国家相比的节水潜力、需要加强水资源管理的地区与行业。分析结果认为,为保证汉江流域经济社会的可持续发展和用水安全,应从开源和节流两个方面制定水资源管理措施,节水重点应放在水资源利用效率较差的行业和地区。     

基于物元分析法的泵站管理现代化评价研究

泵站管理现代化是水利工程管理现代化的重要组成部分,泵站现代化管理评价为泵站管理改革创新决策提供科学依据。为科学评估泵站现代化管理水平,解决各评价指标间不相容问题,通过构建由5个一级评价指标,24个二级评价指标组成的泵站管理现代化评价指标体系,将熵权法和专家赋权法耦合确定综合权重,得到泵站管理现代化物元评价模型,并应用于凤凰颈泵站。结果表明:物元分析法可有效评价泵站现代化管理水平,与实际情况相符,该泵站现代化管理程度相对较高,但应重点加强水生态管理和水利信息化管理,尤其是水利信息数据资源管理和水土流失治理需加强现代化建设。     

基于物元模型的城市水资源可持续利用评价体系

根据DPSIR概念模型,从城市水资源可持续利用的驱动力、压力、状态、影响以及响应5个方面出发,构建了评价指标体系.以物元模型、可拓集合与关联函数理论为基础,建立了多指标多级的可拓综合评价模型.实例研究表明,所建模型能较完整地反映城市水资源利用状况,揭示城市水资源可持续利用的主要制约因子,并为城市水资源可持续利用策略提供依据.     

基于层次分析法的云南省小康水利现状评估

云南省开展小康水利规划研究,力争在2020年实现小康社会下的小康水利。为确保这一目标的顺利实现,基于层次分析法提出了由防洪抗旱减灾、水资源合理配置、水资源高效利用、水源地保护与河湖健康保障、水管理、水利发展保障6大体系26项指标组成的云南省小康水利评价指标体系。通过层次分析法计算各项指标权重,并利用构建的小康水利指标体系对云南省2011年水利发展现状进行评价。云南省小康水利现状水平为71分,距离实现小康水利还有一定差距。水管理能力得分仅为40.8分,为主要制约因素,这与云南省水利发展现状基本相符,现状评估结果可为云南省小康水利建设规划提供依据。     

基于联系数和耦合协调度的水资源空间均衡评价方法

为定量分析评价水资源空间均衡状况和空间差异,采用联系数和耦合协调度相结合的方法对区域水资源空间均衡进行评价.综合考虑水资源-经济社会-生态环境的复合关系,构建了由水资源承载支撑力和承载压力2个系统、15个评价指标组成的水资源空间均衡评价指标体系,并采用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法计算了评价指标权重,提出了基于联系数...     

新安江流域取水许可总量控制指标体系研究

对新安江流域水资源及其开发利用和流域取水许可现状等进行综合分析,提出了包括约束性和预期性指标在内的新安江流域取水许可总量控制指标体系,并确定出2010年流域取水许可总量控制各项指标取值.旨在为新安江流域科学实施取水许可管理制度提供定量化的技术支撑.     

Distributed Simulation‐optimization Model for Conjunctive Use of Groundwater and Surface Water Under Environmental and Sustainability Restrictions

Evolving optimal management strategies are essential for the sustainable development of water resources. A coupled simulation-optimization model that links the simulation and optimization models internally through a response matrix approach is developed for the conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water in meeting irrigation water demand and municipal water supply, while ensuring groundwater sustainability and maintaining environmental flow in river. It incorporates the stream-aquifer interactions, and the aquifer response matrix is generated from a numerical groundwater model. The optimization model is solved by using MATLAB. The developed model has been applied to the Hormat-Golina valley alluvial stream-aquifer system, Ethiopia, and the optimal pumping schedules were obtained for the existing 43 wells under two different scenarios representing with and without restrictions on stream flow depletion, and satisfying the physical, operational and managerial constraints arising due to hydrological configuration, sustainability and ecological services. The study reveals that the total annual optimal pumping is reduced by 19.75?% due to restrictions on stream flow depletion. It is observed that the groundwater pumping from the aquifer has a significant effect on the stream flow depletion and the optimal conjunctive water use plays a great role in preventing groundwater depletion caused by the extensive pumping for various purposes. The groundwater contribution in optimal conjunctive water use is very high having a value of 92?% because of limited capacity of canal. The findings would be useful to the planners and decision makers for ensuring long-term water sustainability.

     

基于GRNN模型的区域水资源可持续利用评价

利用层次分析法构建了符合丰水地区水资源可持续利用指标体系和评价标准,从水资源条件、水资源开发利用效率、生态环境状况、水资源合理配置和水资源管理能力5个方面提出50个评价指标,并运用GRNN神经网络水资源可持续利用评价模型,对文山州不同规划水平年水资源可持续利用进行了综合评价。结果表明：① 不同规划水平年各评价区域水资源可持续利用评价为2~3级,反映出文山州现状及中、长期水资源处于可持续与基本可持续之间的状况,亦表明所建立的GRNN评价模型和评价方法是合理可行的;② GRNN网络评价模型具有收敛速度快、预测精度高、参数调整少、不易陷入局部极小值等优点,可以更快地预测评价网络,能够满足客观评价区域水资源可持续利用状况的要求。     

基于结构熵权法的长江下游水资源承载力评价——以南京市为例

水资源承载力的研究对于区域发展具有重要推动作用,对水资源的开发利用进行科学合理的规划,以南京市为例,根据其水资源承载力的内涵和影响因素,从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境几个方面选取了相应的评价指标,构建了指标评价体系,以对该市的水资源承载力进行评价。利用结构熵权法,将主观赋值法与客观赋值法相结合以确定各指标的权重,并结合可变模糊法对南京市的水资源承载力进行评价。评价结果表明:南京市水资源承载力在2005年处于较弱的水平,在2010,2015年和2020年均处于中等水平,根据其综合评分,可以看出南京市的水资源承载力整体上呈现出了提高的趋势。     

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的淠史杭灌区初始水权分配研究

为实现淠史杭灌区范围内各行政区域初始水权科学合理的分配,构建了基于公平性、高效性、可持续性和可调控性原则下的初始水权分配指标体系,运用熵权法计算各指标权重,通过TOPSIS模型确定各地区水权分配比例及其分配量。结果表明:6个较大权重指标中有3个(建成区绿化覆盖率、城市污水集中处理率、工业废水排放达标率)属于水权分配可持续性原则下的指标,说明区域水资源开发利用的可持续性对初始水权分配的贡献最为突出。     

Challenges and prospects of sustainable groundwater management in an agricultural plain along the Silk Road Economic Belt,north-west China

Abstract

As a major challenge in building a new and sustainable Silk Road Economic Belt, threats induced by poor groundwater management have raised stress on the groundwater resources in the Yinchuan Plain, north-west China. In the present article, an overview of groundwater development in the plain, along with the associated negative effects, is provided. A fragmented management framework is found responsible for the poor groundwater management. Efficient and effective groundwater management will require proper attention of the local authorities to the inherent interaction among various water systems. Only with enhanced cooperation, an integrated monitoring network, strengthened scientific support and active public participation can the sustainability of groundwater management of the plain be achieved.